The obviously finally comes to light in some U.S. media. The "rebels" in Libya are just a bunch of maybe 1,000 wild running rag tags with no structure or real population support. On top of these, but without any control, are a handful of freshly imported expatriates, usually the U.S. indoctrinated type, and a few old Gaddafi hands who have fallen out with him.

Turkey did some yeoman's work to get the whole operation under NATO control. France's Sarkozy objected because he did see that it would end his plans. NATO is a political consensus machine. A majority of NATO countries, the two biggest old European ones, Turkey and Germany, and all the new eastern members, objected to the use of force against Gaddafi.

Now NATO is in control and will follow the UN resolution by the letter. It now sets the rules of engagement. Accordingly there will be no more direct air support for the rebels. There will be no official weapon transfer to them either.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen dismissed the idea in a CNN interview yesterday, saying “we are not in Libya to arm people, but to protect people.”

(France and the U.S. will likely try to circumvent that, but will hear some serious objections.)

Without air support the rebel gang will lose. This will not be a stalemate, the rebels will lose. Not only the oil cities like Ras Lanuf but all of the cities they "conquered" including Benghazi.

Before that happens there will be a lot of back and forth over hundreds of miles of coastal roads like we have seen over the last day. If you want to learn why that will be the case read Infantry Brigadier starting at chapter 7. New Zealand's WW-II officer Howard Kippenberger fought against Rommel in just the same area and his report on the back and forth is amusing and scholarly. Logistics, logistics, logistics …

For the rebels to win the U.S., France and the U.K would have to get troops on the ground, train the rebels, provide weapons, artillery, communication, medics, food and everything else and then start a march on Tripoli through cities with a hostile population. I doubt that now, as the likely length of such a campaign becomes obvious and more serious thinkers are finally getting the upper hand in the discussion, the will to do so will still be there.

Gadaffi may well survive this and the continuing sanctions. Libya has been under sanctions so many years that little will change. Someone will buy that light, sweet crude. Eventually some need will come up to rehabilitate him.

Then again I may be wrong on all of this. But I wouldn't bet on any other scenario.

Urging the killing of Libyans Juan Cole published Top Ten Ways that Libya 2011 is Not Iraq 2003.

I'll not bother to refute all his points. For anyone halfway awake it is self evident that all the ten points he mentions are rather pointing to similarities than to differences in the arguments for both of those wars.

For example he says "The United States did not take the lead role .." on Libya while the NYT reported on the 18th of March that the relevant UN resolution was drafted by the U.S. and the U.S. obviously led the military action. He says "None of the United Nations allies envisages landing troops on the ground" while there are many reports public that British SAS special forces have been caught on the ground even before the UN resolution.

So Cole's pamphlet is just pro-war propaganda. On all ten points the War on Libya is indeed like the War on Iraq.

But there is an additional point Cole doesn't mention where the War on Libya is the same idiocity as the War on Iraq has been.

Juan Cole supported both of these wars. On March 19 2003 he wrote:

I remain convinced that, for all the concerns one might have about the aftermath, the removal of Saddam Hussein and the murderous Baath regime from power will be worth the sacrifices that are about to be made on all sides.

Since mid March 2011 Cole is obviously propagandizing for War on Libya.

His latest pamphlet An Open Letter to the Left on Libya (notice where the title puts himself) is just a stupid  attack on sane thinking. Did the Koch brothers pay for that?

Japan says plutonium found at Fukushima

Much will be made out of the Plutonium but the levels found, while from the recent incident, are not concerning at all. Disregard the panicking Plutonium headlines. There are bigger problems at hand.

What I am more concerned about is the vicious responsibility circle at the Fukushima plants.

Cooling needs to keep going in the reactor vessels to prevent reheating and possible fission in the partially melted reactor cores. Pumping water from the outside in and letting hot water steam/flow out somewhere (feed and bleed) is currently the only possibility to do the necessary cooling to prevent reheating and further fission of the reactor cores until a real controlled cooling cycle can be established.

Unfortunately a real controlled cooling cycle can only be established with access to the turbine halls lower levels.

Unfortunately cooling by pumping water from the outside into the broken reactor vessels with partialy melted cores is flooding the downhill turbine halls with highly contaminated water which prevents access and the establishment of a controlled cooling cycle. No one has any good idea of where to put or redirect the hundreds of tons of water pumped in and now coming out into the turbine hall with high contamination.

Allowing to dump the contaminated water into the sea is equal to political suicide in a democratic seafood nation. Technically it is the only solution possible within any reasonable time frame.

The conflict between political and technical considerations will lead to a stagnation of decisions in the stabilization operations.

The contaminated water will not care. It will find its way into the sea. Meanwhile reduced cooling, as already established today, will increase core damage and further radiation leaks.

Over the last days the already very serious situation in the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant got worse. It is possible that nuclear fuel in reactor 2 resumed fission. Radioactive water seeped into the turbine buildings next to the reactors making work there nearly impossible. While external power was restored to all reactors at the plant, there is not much use for it now as the pumps it should drive are not accessible due to high radiation.

Water in turbine building of no 2 is now reported to carry 3 billion Becquerel per cubic centimeter or gram, ten million times the normal radioactivity of reactor coolant. For good reasons normal limits for food are in the range of a few hundred of Becquerel per kilo(!)gram. The radiation effect is above 1,000 milliSievert per hour. The water in turbine building no. 2 also contains elements with very short half life. Obviously the fuel rods in the reactor core are broken, partially molten and cooling water escapes from the cores. There is no other way to explain these levels of radioactivity. But it may even be possible that the molten mass of the reactor core in no. 2 has reignited fission. I currently find no other way to explain some of the elements found in the water as they have such a short half life that they should have vanished by now. Iodine-134 was found in the water at no. 2. It has a half life of only 53 minutes. [UPDATE 11:30am EST: Tepco now somewhat retracts that result saying it is "not certain" that the measurement was right. But it did confirm the 1,000 milliSievert/hour (100 rem/h).] Also found was Iodine-131 with 8 days of half life. This 16 days after the reactor was shut down. There is another data point that supports this thesis. A recent Tepco press release said about no 2:

From 10:10 am on March 26th, freshwater (with boric acid) injection was initiated. (switched from the seawater injection)

Boric acid is used to suppress neutron flow and thereby nuclear fission. There was no boric acid added to the reestablished freshwater feeds of reactor no 1 and 3.

The plant owner Tepco is behaving criminally:

Six days before the workers were exposed, a measurement of radiation levels in the basement of the turbine building for the No. 2 reactor had picked up 500 millisieverts per hour, which exceeded the maximum level of 250 millisieverts allowed for workers.

But the workers were not told about those measurements before they began laying a cable at the turbine building for the No. 3 reactor from about 10:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Two workers were exposed to radiation levels of 2 to 6 Sievert which will likely cause serious burns. Highly radioactive water from the reactor cores of no. 1, 2 and 3 filled the basements of the adjacent turbine buildings. Water as much as 1.5 meters deep was found in the no. 3 turbine building, 1 meter deep in the no. 2 building and 40 centimeters deep in no. 1. Those buildings also hold the pumps needed to restart cooling the reactors. In these condition the pumps can not be checked and restarted without probably deadly consequences for personal working on the issue. As a Japan Atomic Industry Forum report commented:

working condition in high radiation area is so bad and there is no prospect of accomplishing the work for this recovery

Cont. reading: March 27+ Fukushima Updates

This is probably must be the most laughable lines CIA spokesperson Ignatius has ever written:

The United Arab Emirates may not be a perfect place, but it’s a lot freer and more progressive than Iran, say, or Russia or China. Saudi Arabia has its problems, but it isn’t an Iran-style menace, either.

The comparisons would not even make sense if one were to exclude the rights of women, which of course would be laughable in itself.

Whatever’s on your mind …

On March 17:

The latter's National Libyan Council claims it is supported by 8,000 regular troops, including 3,000 Special Forces which are ready to die defending Benghazi.

But yesterday:

[N]ow, as they try to defeat Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s armed forces and militias, they will have to rely on allied airstrikes and young men with guns because the army that rebel military leaders bragged about consists of only about 1,000 trained men.

Down from 8,000 to 1,000 in just seven days. Judging from AlJazeerah and other video sources the real number of trained soldiers on the rebel site seems to be around zero. Indeed all I have seen so far are some rather lunatic unorganized folks with small and medium arms trying to run against superior forces. Even the special forces Great Britain, France and the U.S. have certainly put on the ground by now will have huge problems to create a disciplined fighting force out of these.

The political leadership of the rebels is also a weird creation. The "new government" "finance minister" is one Ali Tarhouni.

Mr. Tarhouni, who teaches economics at the University of Washington, returned to Libya one month ago after more than 35 years in exile to advise the opposition on economic matters.
[…] This week, the rebel leadership announced its latest evolution, a government in waiting led by Mahmoud Jibril, a planning expert who defected from Colonel Qaddafi’s government.

From the slick website (which PR company payed by whom created it?) of the Interim Transitional National Council we learn about Mr Mahmood Jibril:

Holds a masters’ degree in Political Science from the University of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in 1980. He also obtained a Doctorate in Strategic planning and decision-making from the same university in 1984 where he worked as a professor in the same subject field for several years.

So two U.S. professor with, no legitimacy or following in the country, now prepare to be the Libyen puppets of the "west".

But they will only get the job after the "allies" put many more boots on the ground. There is no way these rebels can win without a big invasion by "western" forces. Even in the desert air power can not conquer and hold any ground.

When that happens Gaddafi will do a Saddam and tell his troops to become "civilians" and to start an insurgency against the occupation forces. Even if he would not do so tribal resistance against invading troops is a certainty.

This is all so predictible that one has to wonder if this was the plan all along.

In Libya the U.S., France and British air forces are running out of targets. The non-integrated 1960s era Libyan air defense, totally incapable against modern jets, was taken out by some 130 cruise missiles. There is no functioning radar system and no usable air strip left. The French bombed some sleeping Libyan soldiers in the desert some 10 miles from Benghazi. Last night Libyan harbors were bombed. Everything that might be left to bomb will be in build up areas and will likely kill civilians.

All the bombing has of course nothing to do with providing a no flight zone. That could have been achieved by only firing at those Libyan planes and helicopters that were actually flying. As Qaddafi followed the UN resolution there were none.

But even without reasonable targets, the bombing will not be allowed to stop now. That would expose that there is no plan on what to do next in supporting this tribal rebellion. Today some U.S. media are finally waking up to that.

The African Union is miffed as the U.S. did not allow their delegation to land in Tripoli to negotiate a ceasefire. The Arab League is retracting its support for the operation. Has anyone actually seen the planes from Qatar and Kuwait were said to join the campaign? After helping the "west" to fall into the intervention trap, China and Russia now demand an immediate halt of the bombing.

According to McClatchy, the praised Libyan National Council has somehow vanished:

Many members of the National Libyan Council had fled to nearby eastern cities and even to neighboring Egypt. The council leader, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, was in nearby Baida, his hometown. The council's Benghazi headquarters was closed.

Several NATO countries do not want to let NATO take over the undefined mission as the U.S. had planned. My guess is that the U.S. will be stuck with the tar-baby it created out of Libya.

The UK and France want Qaddafi killed and the country occupied. But after agreeing to follow the UN resolution they pressed for it will be difficult to argue for steps the resolution explicitly forbids.

I can not remember any foreign policy issue that was so badly thought out, unorganized and unplanned for like this one. Not even the aftermath of the war on Iraq comes near to this.

If there are still any grown ups in Washington, London and Paris they urgently need to take over and end this sorry mess.

All reactors are connected to external power but switchboards of 1, 3 and 4 are not yet accessible and not connected. No 2 is connected but damage of the quake and Tsunami still needs to be evaluated before the electrical systems there can be powered up. To provide electricity to all reactors will still take several days.

There are new verified numbers about the load in the spent fuel ponds. Why the Japanese authorities are prioritizing work at the no.3 spent fuel pool over no. 4 is still a mystery.

Unit 5 and 6 are in cold shutdown and with reported active cooling of the spent fuel ponds. Despite the reported cooling temperatures in both pools went slightly up during the last 24 hours to some 45 degree Celsius

A concrete pump with a 50 meter mast is ready to be used to fill spent fuel pools.

Measurement of seawater around the plant found radioactive Iodine and Cesium exceeding regulatory limits.

The Tsunami which hit the plant is now estimated to have reached 14 meter height, double the height the plant had been designed for.

Unless an additional serious incident happens further updates will be made in the comments of this thread.

Cont. reading: March 22+ Fukushima Updates

The question that should have been asked before attacking Libya but wasn't: How will this end?

Please let us know your prediction.

The no. 3 reactor yesterday likely experienced another leak from its primary reactor containment (see below). /Update: At 15:55 local time today grey smoke was coming from the south eastern corner of the top of no. 3 (spent fuel pont) and workers were evacuated. The smoke disappeared at 18:00. At 18:30 white smoke came from the west side of no. 2 building./ Work continued on powerline connection and filling spent fuel pools at unit 2, 3 and 4. Unit 5 and 6 seem to be safe for now. No. 1 to 4 are still in trouble. To connect 3 and 4 to outside power will still take several additional days.

Unit 1

A powerline for external power was laid and has been connected to the no. 1 distribution switchboard. Equipment is now getting checked for damage.

Unit 2

A powerline for external power was laid and has been connected to the no. 2 distribution switchboard. Equipment is now getting checked for damage. Seawater is getting filled into the spent fuel pond of no. 2.

Unit 3

The no. 3 spent fuel pool has been filled with seawater. Pressure in the primary containment increased yesterday morning local time (320 kPa as of 11:00 March 20th) and venting, which would release radioactive steam, was prepared. But the pressure then stopped increasing and later decreased (225 kPa as of 22:00 March 20). Willful venting by the operators has not taken place.

But I do believe that the pressure vented itself through a leak in the primary containment. Earlier U.S. tests found drywell flange leaks on General Electric Mark I reactors under high pressure.

A Mark I primary containment with the drywell top in the foreground (source: Wikimedia)
bigger

The drywell top gets bolted onto the containment. The flange between the containment and the drywell top includes a rubber o-ring to prevent leaks. But in tests high pressure inside the containment could lift the top and steam could escape around that o-ring.

Such an "automatic venting" mechanism would explains the earlier hydrogen escapes from the primary containments which eventually destroyed the no 1 and 3 reactor buildings. On Sunday radioactivity at the Daiichi site went up from some 2670 microsievert/hour at 6:30 to some 3350 microsievert at around 14:30 local time. It later came down again and was at around 2360 microsievert at 6:30 on Monday. This correlates with the pressure in no. 3 coming down again after the likely temporary leaking.

Cont. reading: March 21 Fukushima Update

Good afternoon, everybody. Today I authorized the Armed Forces of the United States to begin a limited military action in Libya in support of an international effort to protect Libyan civilians. That action has now begun.

In this effort, the United States is acting with a broad coalition that is committed to enforcing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973, which calls for the protection of the Libyan people. That coalition met in Paris today to send a unified message, and it brings together many of our European and Arab partners.
Remarks by the President on Libya, March 19, 2011

My fellow citizens, at this hour, American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq, to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger.

On my orders, coalition forces have begun striking selected targets of military importance to undermine Saddam Hussein's ability to wage war. These are opening stages of what will be a broad and concerted campaign. More than 35 countries are giving crucial support — from the use of naval and air bases, to help with intelligence and logistics, to the deployment of combat units. Every nation in this coalition has chosen to bear the duty and share the honor of serving in our common defense.
ADDRESS ANNOUNCING OPERATIONS TO DISARM IRAQ, 19 March 2003

The situation on the plant site is getting somewhat better. Unlike in the first week the operation now seems to be coordinated and adequate man power is being used. Detailed information though is still scarce. Some food from the wider Fukuchima, spinach and milk, have been found to be contaminated with radiation above the legal limits.

Five minute video of the military firefighters spraying at the block 3 spent fuel pond. The protection suits seen at the beginning are not military grade and, in my view, not adequate for working in a contaminated environment. There is a lot of debris laying around the unit no. 3. The support structure of the crane in the reactor hall of no.3 seems to be gone. The crane which is usually above the spent fuel pond may have fallen down and may have damaged the spent fuel assemblies. The water cannon operation itself is reasonably well done.

Details on each unit follow below.

Cont. reading: March 20 Fukushima Update

More water was sprayed onto the unit no. 3 spent fuel pond and efforts are underway to connect reactor no. 2 to the power grid. Manpower at the plant was ramped up with some 130 operational staff and 320 people now clearing pathways and laying new power lines. 130 firefighter from Tokyo also joined. No other incidents or efforts from the Fukushima Daiichi plant were reported since yesterday.

But what is up with unit no. 4?

Satellite picture March 18 by Digital Globe
Unit no. 4 to no. 1 from left to right
bigger version

I have been harping on over unit no. 4 for days now. I see immediate danger there.

The Japanese authorities have said little about it. There was a fire at no. 4 on the 15th they said, at some pump, and another short fire soon after the first one was out. There were two holes in the reactor building walls they said, 26 square foot each. Yesterday they even downgraded the INES classification of no. 4 from 4 to 3 while upgrading the damage classification of the Daiichi reactors 1 to 3 from 4 to 5. Instead of a "serious accident without significant off-site risk" no. 4 is now only a "serious incident" they claim. Cooling efforts for the spent fuel pond at no. 3 were again made while no efforts are made to cool the pond at no 4.

But all of that can not be right. There ain't just two holes in the unit no. 4 walls as TEPCO initially reported.

Cont. reading: March 19 Fukushima Update – No. 4 Pool Fission?

In Libya a quite heavily armed rebellion, even with its own fighter jets, from the parts of the country which sent the most (relative to population) Salafi fighters against the U.S. occupation in Iraq has now been internationally recognized and will get armed support from Gulf state dictatorships, France, the U.K. and the United States. Already arms are flowing to them through the military dictatorship of Egypt.

Meanwhile the U.S. allies Bahrain and Yemen, with support of mercenaries from the fundamentalist theocratic dictatorship in Saudi Arabia, are shooting up masses of unarmed protester who demand their democratic rights. How come no one is pushing for any interference on their side?

Whoever thinks that the Libya UN resolution, allowing for all out war on the side of the rebels, has anything to do with "Human Rights" or "Democracy" should get their head examined.

This is about oil, about what is good for Israel and about neo-conservative/neo-colonial aspirations of some "western" leaders.

But who will now join the shooting? The U.S. military is against starting another war. NATO will not act because at least Germany and Turkey would oppose that. So it is up to France and the UK. Will they actually go on their own? We'll see.

I am happy that my country, Germany, joint the BRIC-states (Brasil, Russia, India, China) in abstaining from the UN vote.

(New issues in bold)

Yesterday saw little progress in the Japanese attempts to restore some safety at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactors.

March 17 satellite picture of the Daiichi reactors 1 to 4 by Digital Globe
North is to the left – the lower part of the pic shows the damaged reactor blocks 1 to 4 from left to right. Comparing with the March 16 picture (with no. 4 on the left), the roof of reactor 4 appears to have melted or exploded away during the last two days.
bigger pic

For lack of cooling, three of the six reactors have experienced a partial core meltdown. Uranium fuel rods in the primary reactor containment were only partly covered with water, heated up and melted. Steam reacted with the zirconium hull of the fuel rods, creating explosive hydrogen and additional heat. These reactors are currently cooled through fire lines by seawater and are regularly vented to release pressure. Each venting releases additional radioactivity. Salt from the seawater used will eventually disable the internal valves, gauges and other urgently needed internal equipment.

Reactors 1, 3 and 4 were damaged by hydrogen explosions outside of their primary containment. Reactor 2 experienced a hydrogen explosion within its primary containment. All four reactor are now radioactive scrap and will eventually have to be entombed in place.

Reactors 1 to 4 have an additional huge problem with their open spent fuel ponds which are located above the primary containment. With water circulation disabled the spent fuel heats up, evaporates the surrounding water and is radiating in dangerous doses directly into the environment. This makes human work in the area nearly impossible.

Attempts were made yesterday to cool and refill the spent fuel pond in reactor no. 3 with airfield fire engines. The dousing attempts were renewed this morning local Japanese time and steam could be seen emitting after water was sprayed. For unknown reasons the Japan Atomic Industry Forum in its March 18:00 10:00am status report overnight downgraded the reactor 3 containment vessel pressure from "stable" to "fluctuating".

There were no attempts made yet to cool down or to cover the spent fuel pond of no. 4 which is suspected to have run dry and is the most hot one with relative unused and now melting fuel. This melted fuel could accumulate at the bottom and restart a nuclear reaction producing addition energy. Such a hot and heavily radiating lava like mass would eventually burn through the surrounding concrete and react violently with any water below it.

Fixed line electricity was reported to have been restored to the relatively undamaged reactor 5 and 6 but according to the IAEA this has not been the case. Instead reactor 5 and 6 appear to receive some power from a partially restored no.6 backup diesel generator.

Restoring electricity to reactor 1 to 4 will be a priority. But even with electricity available it is unlikely that the cooling equipment in these explosion damaged reactors will be able to function.

Information by the plant operator Tokyo Power company TEPCO, the Japanese government and the Japanese media is scarce and incomplete or false. The decision making seems to be by committee and always too slow and too late. The urgency to act decisively to at least stop the situation from getting worse has not yet sunk in.

Additional resources:
AllThingsNuclear Union of Concerned Scientists
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Atomic power review blog
Digital Globe Sat Pictures
IAEA Newscenter
NISA Japanese Nuclear Regulator
Japan Atomic Industry Forum (regular updates)
Japanese government press releases in English
Kyodo News Agency
Asahi Shimbun leading Japanese newspaper in English
NHK World TV via Ustream
Status reports for the German Federal Government by the Gesellschaft für Reaktorsicherheit in German language

There is no even less information coming from the operator of the Fokushima Daiichi plant, Tepco, as well as of the government authorities. They are no reporting any of the all important details and are spinning every issue in a ridiculous positive view.  The IAEA, under a Japanese secretary general, isn't much better with even its webserver going down for half a day yesterday and any information on the Japan situation hard to find on it even when it is up.

Action on the ground seems to be chaotic and is missing leadership and decisive will. Japan is a major industrial nation with a big machinery and shipping industry but seems to be organizational incapable to timely provide for mobile generators, high pressure pumps and knowledgeable personal to help in the nuclear emergency.

The U.S. government is calling the radiation levels "extremely high" and advised its nationals to stay away at least 80 kilometer (50 miles) from the damaged plant.

Recent developments:

Recent measurements taken during helicopter overflights 300 m above the ground (240 m above the reactor roof) showed radiation of 4,130 microSievert per hour, in 100 m height above ground they showed  87,700 microSievert per hour (natural background depending on location is below 0.1). The measurments are consistent with large amounts of uncovered and exposed nuclear material. 

Japanese Self Defense Force helicopters tried four times to drop 7.5 tons of seawater each onto the unit no. 3 spent fuel pond (full capacity 2,000 tons of water). Video from the operation shows the water mostly missing its target as the helicopter are flying much too fast and too high to be able to hit the appropriate spot. A rather ridiculous operation.

There are plans to use riot police water cannons to spray the reactors and to fill the fuel ponds. As these are some 30+ meters above ground it is unlikely that the pumps in the truck will have enough power and capacity for this to be effective.

A new land line is getting laid to provide electricity to the site.

Status information on the reactor units (unfortunately most of it is over half a day old):

Cont. reading: March 17 Update On The Fukushima Reactors

The Ides of March (yes, a day late) have brought many concerning developments besides the Japanese catastrophy.

At the request of the Sunni Bahrainian rulers Saudi troops have invaded Bahrain, a state of emergency was declared and police violently removed the mostly Shia protesters from the square they had occupied and protested in. At least 8 people were killed.

In Libya Qadaffi's armed forces moved further east to Benghazi suppressing the revolt of some eastern tribes.

Israel pirated a ship far off its coast alleging that it carried weapons to Gaza. Ludicrous.

Pakistan released a CIA agent who had killed two Pakistani people from jail saying blood money was paid to the families of the killed persons. Family members and their lawyer say they do not know of any settlement. Expect protests against this move.

What other news did we miss?

Please check yesterdays status post for some basic explanations.

"the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage"
Emperor Hirohito in his first ever public address announcing surrender on August 15, 1945

"With the help of those involved I hope things will not get worse"
Emperor Akihito in a rare public address on the nuclear crisis, March 16, 2011

Early Wednesday all workers were removed from the Fukushima Daiichi plant for about an hour because of high radiation level. Some 50 have since returned to continue the operation. 50 people are too few to be able to control six nuclear reactors in dire straits. Satellite pictures from DigitalGlobe show very severe damage to reactor buildings 4, 3 and 1 and a hole in the wall of  reactor 2 (thanks to The Paper in comments).

We are near total core meltdown in at least two of the six Daiichi reactors additionally to very severe problems in several of the spent fuel ponds. The only chance left now to avoid more serious radiation release may be the Chernobyl option, i.e. to drop thousands of tons of sand and lead onto the reactors to encapsulate the radiation sources.

The information policy of the operation company Tepco as well as the Japanese government is abysmal.

Unit no.1 is temporarily stabilized. The "feed and bleed" operation continues, i.e. seawater is being added and steam released to further cool down the partially melted fuel rods.

Unit no.2 has a probable breach of the primary containment in the area of the doughnut shaped suppression pool.  The spike of radioactivity earlier today was attributed to leakage at unit no. 2. The fuel rods within no.2 are considered to have partially melted.

The primary containment of unit no.3 is now considered to be also damaged. White smoke, likely slightly radioactive steam, is coming out of unit no.3. Pictures shows the top of unit 3 which exploded on Monday with very heavy damage. Access from or to the top to the no.3 building is likely impossible. Helicopters were used to drop water onto the spent fuel pool of unit 3 but the operation was aborted because of high radiation levels. The fuel rods within no.3 are considered to have at least partially melted.

The IAEA reported: “Japanese authorities also today informed the IAEA at 04:50 CET that the spent fuel storage pond at the Unit 4 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is on fire and radioactivity is being released directly into the atmosphere.”

An earlier reported fire in unit 4 has either restarted or maybe was not really put out as had been reported earlier. While the operating company earlier said that it was machinery oil burning, the location of the fire in the north-west corner of the fourth floor of unit no. 4 is consistent with the spent fuel pool burning. A photo at the NYT website shows heavy damage at the outer containment wall of unit no 4. right next to the spent fuel pool. The Digital Globe satellite picture show the no. 4 outer containment with very severe fire damage.

Workers can not get near the pool because of high radiation. A water cannon truck is getting prepared to put water into the pool area through the damaged walls but the access road has first to be cleared of debris to allow the truck to come through. Due to maintenance at the time of the incident the no. 4 core does not contain any fuel rods but the fuel rods in the spent fuel pool are fresh from the reactor and thereby quite hot. Related to unit 4 Kyodo News Agency reports:

The utility firm said Wednesday morning it is considering spraying boric acid by helicopter to prevent the spent nuclear fuel rods from reaching criticality again, restarting a chain reaction.

This is curious as the fuel rods in the spent fuel pools should be in special racks with boric separations. Why does Tepco assume that these are no longer functional?

The reactors of unit 5 and 6 are empty and their fuel is held inside the spent fuel pools there. The temperature in those pools has increased as no cooling circulation can be established.

Radiations level are reported to be "constant at high level" of some 2-3 millisievert per hour.

The Japanese government increased the legally allowable limit of radiation exposure for workers at the plant from 100 to an accumulated 250 millisievert/year.

The wind is currently blowing eastward pushing any radioactive clouds out to the Pacific.

Some pro-nuclear people argue that the reactors withstood the earthquake quite well and only the tsunami created the current problems. I doubt that. The 9.0 strong quake already exceeded the 8.2 design level of the reactors (as the Richter scale is logarithmic, the increase in strength from 8.2 to 9.0 is several fold). The quake certainly already caused some serious damage. The tsunami added to that. What damage was created when will be difficult to find out.

The point is that the design was adopted to a certain level of possible danger but that the real danger turned out to be bigger than the expected one. This is likely to be the case for all existing nuclear plant.

The official death count from the tsunami has now exceeded 11,000 and may still double or triple. Nearly 80,000 housing units have been destroyed. It is unlikely that further survivors will be found in the ruble. Cleanup operations continue.

Additional resources:
AllThingsNuclear
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Digital Globe Sat Pictures
IAEA Newscenter (currently down)
NISA Japanese Nuclear Regulator (last update March 14)
Japan Atomic Industry Forum (regular updates)
Kyodo News Agency
NHK World TV via Ustream

Two days ago I linked to an explaining piece about the nuclear events in Japan which, as I and others remarked, was quite positive on nuclear energy. In today's post I linked to some site called mitnse.com. I have since removed the second link. Both links may have been, unintentionally, to astroturfing sites with fake personal opinions or slanted information sponsored by some entity interested in furthering nuclear energy.

A post alleging such was up at geniusnow.com earlier today. Curiously that site now only shows "This Account Has Been Suspended" – hmmm.  But as of now that post is still available in the Google cache.

I copied it from there and I am reproducing it below under fair use doctrine for further discussion.

[UPDATE (3:00pm): I have now been in contact with the owner of Genius Now. The site was down because of heavy traffic, not because of censorship. It is up again.]

Note that I DO NOT endorse that post or any allegations made therein.

The reproduced post follows:

Cont. reading: Nuclear Lobby Astroturfing?