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February 8, 2011
“The Fear Changed Camp”

The release from prison of protest organizer Wael Ghonim and his very emotional interview (press the CC button for English subtitles) on private TV yesterday evening has given the revolution in Egypt new momentum.

There are signs now that the fire is reaching new parts of the society. Today professors of Cairo University marched from the university to Tahrir. Two hundred journalists from state media protested. A huge step for them to take. The semi-official daily Al-Ahram carried an editorial by its chief editor that was somewhat critical of Mubarak. Despite this being a normal working day several hundred thousands took to the streets in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, Assuan and other cities. Many of them for the first time.

Some protesters went to new places with a reported thousand in front (video) of the People's Assembly, the parliament building. There are new demands being made by the protester. The slogans chanted now call not only for Mubarak to step down, but for prosecution of him and his family. A group of lawyers have petitioned the attorney general to investigate Mubarak's family alleged wealth.

The regime is still in retreat. Yesterday it increased state sector pay by 15%. Today Suleiman, Israel's choice for following Mubarak, announced several new presidential decrees to implement some pseudo democratic changes to the constitution. He announced that no protester would be prosecuted. Of course no one is believing him.

At the same time secret security forces are still hard at work and pick people off the street. But as one guest at Aljazeera observed: "The fear changed camp." It is no longer the people that fear the state apparatus, now the state fears the people. The revolution can still be slowed down, but I believe no one and nothing can stop it now.

Posted by b on February 8, 2011 at 15:37 UTC | Permalink
Comments

A great piece b, thanks

Posted by: hans | Feb 8 2011 16:09 utc | 1

Important – the workers join: Suez Canal workers go on strike

Suez Canal Company workers from the cities of Suez, Port Said, and Ismailia began an open-ended sit in today. Disruptions to shipping movements, as well as disasterous econmic losses, are expected if the strike continues. Over 6000 protesters have agreed that they will not go home today once their shift is over and will continue their in front of the company’s headquarters until their demands are met. They are protesting against poor wages and deteriorating health and working conditions.

Posted by: b | Feb 8 2011 16:14 utc | 2

From Twitter #Jan25: AJA: reporting that 250,000 in Mansoura City call for Mubarak to step down.
Mansoura, a population of 420,000, lies on the east bank of the Damietta branch of the Nile, in the Delta region. Mansoura is about 120 km northeast of Cairo.

Posted by: Rick | Feb 8 2011 16:23 utc | 3

The proposed 15% rise in Gvmt salaries will have no effect at all.
That might work in France for ex.
Not in Egypt. Meaningless and insulting, everyone will see thu it.
Stupid, stupid move, showing disconnect to a hallucinatory degree. Beyond dumb, a putting forward of cards that shows weakness, desperation.
Even Mubarak supporters, if there any around, e.g. the rich (protect our position, wealth, income, etc.) or the poor (he is a strong man, a fair man, our leader) will sneer at this.

Posted by: Noirette | Feb 8 2011 17:05 utc | 4

The Guardian reports that a sit in is planned at the Parliament in cairo this evening. And that crowds have begun to surround the building. The Canal has been closed, by a sit in strike, too, it reports.
Who will the US come up with next, assuming that Suleiman is not going to serve their purpose?
How long will the silence in Ramallah last? “Lady” Ashton, evidently, made a speech today saying that the crises in the cregion were rooted in the failure of Peace talks. This is considerable progress for a Blairite zionist.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 8 2011 18:45 utc | 5

it seems most of us swing from optimism to more sobre reflections on what is happening
it is not a bad thing, we are not biblical scholars, after all – i still wish we had access to more information – & i must wear out b’s blogroll

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 8 2011 20:23 utc | 6

Same here. I think this rejuvenation of the protests caught some of us as a surprise. The ‘normalization’ and the realization that the regime wouldn’t try to coerce the newly created openness has moved new people on the streets. More parts of the Egyptian society are internalizing the protesters demands.
The Parliament isn’t active after the fraudulent elections from November and it won’t be inaugurated for some time because there are legal complains on the result and the regime has said it will let the judiciary to work on them. The way it’s going is very likely it will be disbanded as the protesters request. It wouldn’t be such a big deal for the regime as long as it keeps the almost unlimited presidential powers for some more time. So it looks like an easy target but sit in will just be symbolic.
The state TV on the other hand would be a sweet target. I think AJE was saying that some of the workers were protesting there today about the on going censorship.

Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 8 2011 20:54 utc | 7

& the commentary on press t v is a great deal more sophisticated than you would normally find in the medium

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 8 2011 20:55 utc | 8

I stand by what I said in the other thread. They worked this guy over, psychologically, and in the end let him go because he’s not a poor slob, and he can carry the message that the regime is benevolent and is open to seeking reconciliation. They’re planting seeds of doubt and attempting to persuade the “Revolution” to bargain, saving the dirty work of vengeance for later when everyone has gone home……or at least that’s their plan. We’ll see about its coming to fruition. Don’t trust Mubarak and the goons who run the show. Unless they are swept from power and brought to justice, they’ll come knocking, it’s just a matter of when. You can be sure it’s when nobody’s looking and the world has gone back to its regularly scheduled programming.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 8 2011 21:14 utc | 9

And a word about Facebook. Despite its utility, it’s a CIA venture, pure and simple. I’m not saying they direct the show, or control events on Facebook, but they have the pulse of it in their hands, and it allows them to track what’s going on at all times and by whom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpLNlSKugHw
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12685

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 8 2011 21:21 utc | 10

first an aside, I can’t help but picture our new friend Morocco wearing a fez standing beside a squirrel in a trench coat. great nic!
happened to see a few minutes of a pretty good discussion on AJ last night. they were talking about a lot of the stuff we discuss here and one of the guys brought up a good point imho. He said there are three possible outcomes in Egypt right now. One is that the present crowd stays in power, the second is that the young people in the streets become leaders of the country, and the third is that some other group such as the MB will take charge.
So if you discard the first option as it seems quite unlikely, and the second as it is impossible, you are really only left with the third option. so who is capable of running a country the size of Egypt? who has any kind of power base?
I hate to guess but would not be surprised to see the military take over. They have good ties with the US for the most part and most likely have the organizational skills required. plus they have guns.

Posted by: dan of steele | Feb 8 2011 22:02 utc | 11

I like that Dan. Of course, there is always this:
http://media.photobucket.com/image/morocco%20bama/jackgreen7/buildobama.jpg

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 8 2011 22:26 utc | 12

“… So if you discard the first option as it seems quite unlikely, and the second as it is impossible, you are really only left with the third option. so who is capable of running a country the size of Egypt? who has any kind of power base?”
The third option is not viable. First of all, the MB represents only about 18% of the population; most of the MB are 50-60 years old; they are not popular with the young people, and this uprising is all about the youth; and lastly, the MB is banned from running for office – Egypt law is secular, no religious sect/group can run for office. Sure they can run under the banner of some rubic… for a few seats in parliament – but inmho, anything else is out of the question.
As for the second option you mention… it is not impossible… improbable perhaps, but certainly not impossible. This uprising is only two weeks old… how can you determine that there is no possible leadership available among the protesters…? And how foolish would it be for anyone to be ‘named’ as a leader, so that they could be assassinated? Certainly out of 80 M people there are leaders. The protesters appear to be doing a darn good job of leading themselves.
The major demand from the protesters has been for Mubarak (and Sulieman) to step down. After that representatives from the protesters would consider meeting with the government.
As for the third option, I do not count that unlikely at all. I see it as in flux. Egypt serves as a buffer (along w/ Jordan and Saudi Arabia) for Israel. According to wikileaks, Israel picked Sulieman as recently as 2008. Mubarak will leave to seek medical attention and Sulieman will step in as President… unless the protesters continue to impact the economy, not only of Egypt but of the world. Depends on how long the protest can go on. State newspaper has already begun to criticize Mubarak and the regime.
The army can’t take over and run the government without a ‘strong man’ –
There could be a split within the military… who knows.
From my pow there is no way to predict the number or kind of options, and certainly no way to predict the outcome.
just my two cents… YMMV

Posted by: crone | Feb 8 2011 23:29 utc | 13

This was peculiar timing for this extraordinary convening of top diplomats in Washington. Not sure what to make of it, if anything at all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world/03Ambassadors.html?_r=1&ref=brianknowlton

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 9 2011 0:11 utc | 14

b, according to Der Spiegel, Mubarak may be coming to visit you. Please return to sender for trial and disembowelment if that’s the case.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,743998,00.html

Will Hosni Mubarak travel to Germany as a patient as part of a graceful exit strategy for the Egyptian president? Plans for a possible hospital stay here appear to be more concrete than previously believed. SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that a luxury clinic near Baden-Baden is being favored.
The United States government’s scenario for an end to the political chaos in Egypt appears to be this: President Hosni Mubarak travels to Germany for a “prolonged health check” that would offer the 82-year-old a dignified departure. Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that secret talks to that effect were being held between the US government and Egyptian military officials.
According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, plans for a possible hospital stay in Germany are far more concrete than had been assumed so far. Talks are already being held with suitable hospitals, particularly with the Max-Grundig-Klinik Bühlerhöhe in the southwestern town of Bühl near Baden-Baden, SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned from sources close to the clinic. The hospital management declined to comment.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 9 2011 0:18 utc | 15

Mr. Fish hits the nail on the head in depicting our foreign policy towards our puppet dictatorships as nothing but green on a traffic light:
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/its_not_easy_being_green_20110207/

Posted by: Cynthia | Feb 9 2011 0:43 utc | 16

@Cynthia,
Heh, here are some similar tweets from #Jan25 today:
@Egyptocray: Dear White House staff: could you please pick a side and stick to it.
@MohammedY: “Some ppl fight to abolish slavery, others fight to improve the terms of slavery” – which camp do you want to be in?

Posted by: Rick | Feb 9 2011 1:06 utc | 17

Noirette,
Even Mubarak supporters, if there any around, e.g. the rich (protect our position, wealth, income, etc.) or the poor (he is a strong man, a fair man, our leader) will sneer at this.
Not to mention that the raises don’t kick in for two months yet. Quite a hollow promise from a guy who could very well be gone in the next week.

Posted by: Night Owl | Feb 9 2011 6:30 utc | 18

Someone should give General Ahmed Ramzy a medal
How Cairo, U.S. Were Blindsided by Revolution

At 4 p.m., the battles appeared to tip decisively in the protesters’ favor. An order came down from Mr. Mubarak to the Minister of Interior, Habib al-Adly to use live ammunition to put down the protests, according to a person familiar with the situation.
Mr. al-Adly passed on the order to his top lieutenant, Gen. Ahmed Ramzy—but Mr. Ramzy refused, according to this person.
“It was a poor assessment of what [orders] his generals would take from him,” this person said.
When Mr. Mubarak saw that Mr. Adly wouldn’t get the job done, he gave the order for the army to deploy, this person said. Mr. Adly was furious, according to the person. Mr. Adly then gave a sweeping order to pull all police from the streets, from lowly traffic monitors, to prison guards, to the vast armies of truncheon-wielding riot police that had been a ubiquitous presence around Egypt for decades.

Posted by: b | Feb 9 2011 9:32 utc | 19

Nice rap video: #Jan25 Egypt – Omar Offendum, The Narcicyst, Freeway, Ayah, Amir Sulaiman (Prod. by Sami Matar)

Posted by: b | Feb 9 2011 10:38 utc | 20

I just like to say for all of you here, who are worrying about the MB taking control of egypt :
-First this is a popular uprising from the start.where all parts of the egyptian social patchwork is participating.the MB are just one of the components, and being a moroccan understanding perfectly arabic ,and following very closely the events on all kinds of media outlets, i can assure you that the MBs are not the ones who are coordinating the youth movement.
-Second , who gives a damn? regardless of who takes power,what we need in egypt is a governement that (1) stops stealing its people.(2) stops torturing its people (3) stops collaborating with the Zionist entity against the palestinians.(4) restores dignity ,and places the egyptian citizen at the center of governement preoccupations.
so : Religion is not longer an issue : Freedom is.

Posted by: Nabil from Morocco. | Feb 9 2011 13:54 utc | 21

Nabil, I can only speak for myself, but I have no fear of the MB taking control in Egypt. The MB has its function, and it does it well. They’re not interested in forming a political party and occupying seats in a Government, but we would both be remiss to believe that they don’t have a very strong interest in who does.
That aside, I have made it clear what I believe the function of the MB is, regardless of the degree of intent. Officially, the MB has made no bones about what their intent is in regards to the Middle East and the World. I find the official purpose of the organization a joke, actually, and don’t take it seriously in any way. It only serves to create a caricature that can be flogged incessantly by the Western media, especially the more conservative voices, but the “Liberal” voices are not immune to the flogging either, they just prefer to use silk scarves instead of whips studded with razor blades.
Here is a video I came across in my research of the MB. I don’t agree with the intent of this video, because I believe its intent is to further obfuscate with scaremongering, however, that being said, I also won’t throw the baby out with the bath water, because there is some important information to be gleaned.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f1P-d3gFEk

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 9 2011 14:19 utc | 22

The situation is building up for a new break. I don’t think it will take much longer now. Friday protests could be even bigger than yesterday.
The protests are increasing in size and spreading to more sections of the Egyptian society. See the Egyptian music that had previously called for the protests to stop now having to apologize and supporting the protests. The workers have started strikes all around the country. The protests spreading even to remote cities in the middle of the desert. Protesters are now camping outside different government buildings (from AJE):

11:10am Protesters still camped out in Tahrir Square, while others gather outside the Egyptian parliament and the headquarters of the People’s Assembly and Shura Council.

Meanwhile the regime is becoming more nervous and Suleiman is now menacing with a violent military coup if the opposition doesn’t agree to ‘talks’ on their own terms.

Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 9 2011 14:31 utc | 23

M.Bama ,
i understand the danger represented by the MB.but, you have to agree that the islamic threat, has been a long time used argument by the Repressive governements all over arab countries to retain power.this is called governing by fear.Now, one of the dynamics that can push political islam to aim for a revolution is precisely the repressive police state.
so, it is like the snake that is biting its own tail.the truth is,the arab people are fed up with police states and they want to see it go.if the MB have somthing to offer to help the revolution, then be it, but i do’nt thing that the strong secular elements in the egyptian society will agree to an Islamic state in egypt.However, if it happens,the people of egypt will be first paying attention that it doesnt turn into another police state,a dictatorship or a governement looting its own country,and this is what matters most.People need to eat,get a doctor,and attend scolarship,decently, first.

Posted by: Nabil from Morocco. | Feb 9 2011 14:52 utc | 24

I find more credible the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel covertly (at first) changing sides and backing violent islamists again to create instability, weaken a secular independent government and creating conditions for a military coup in the face of losing influence through the ME than a MB Iran-style takeover of Egypt. They are already allied with radical islamists in Lebanon and their propaganda houses calls Hamas shiites (what a joke) trying to spread sectarian violence. Salafist groups in Iraq have always been under the suspicion of being funded from Saudi Arabia. If the US forces are forced to leave (and no longer can be a target) it will leave the field open for Saudi and allies, including the US, to implement a strategy supporting an increase in the violence against the Iran friendly shiite government.

Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 9 2011 15:02 utc | 25

The fear of an Islamist take over is the USuk/isr narrative since before 9/11, with more traction since then.
Sure, more traditionalist/religious/conservative factions, or just plain poor ppl on the take, or even gangsters in the drug / human traffic trade and so on, have been in the past co-opted by the US, to ‘fight on their side’, notably in Yugoslavia and Afghanistan. Or they were funded just to create chaos, fear, unrest, a false enemy for the TV watching public…
I don’t see that going over in Egypt, even with concerted and underground efforts by the US, but who am I, what do I know. (see Nabil at 24.)

Posted by: Noirette | Feb 9 2011 16:48 utc | 26

Nabil @ 24, I agree. Excellent post.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 9 2011 17:24 utc | 27

Some analyst start to get to the real issue:
For Egypt’s Military, Big Business Means Staying Power

There are widely divergent estimates of the size – and quality – of the military’s business empire. Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies says it is proportionately smaller than that played by the People’s Liberation Army in China. He also says it has shrunk in recent years. But Paul Sullivan, a National Defense University professor who has spent years in Egypt, says it is huge, probably accounting for 10% to 15% of Egypt’s $210 billion economy.
The revenue streams from its various holdings help the military maintain the lifestyle its officers have grown accustomed to, including an extensive network of luxurious social clubs as well as comfortable retirements – all of which helps ensure officer loyalty.
…
Indeed, the military may evade any of the reforming that is being promised as part of the government’s concession to the protesters. If a public-security institution is in for reform, it is most likely going to be the Interior Ministry, which has, according to Khalidi, a “mind-boggling” number of secret units that can turn out tens of thousands of men on the streets in any city overnight. The Interior Ministry is controlled by the General Intelligence Service, which is run by General Omar Suleiman, the military man recently appointed Vice President and entrusted with overseeing some sort of promised transition. “This way, the military has its cake and eats it too, basking in popularity and general support while other elements of the regime that are, in fact, subordinate to the military, absorb popular anger,” says Robert Springborg, an expert on the Egyptian military now at the Naval Postgraduate School.
…
it is all but certain that the military will remain at the core of whatever regime emerges from the current confused impasse. The protesters and reformists may notch a few wins. Says Springborg: “I think they’ll get Mubarak’s scalp, at least symbolically, and they’ll get probably a little bit of a thicker veil of civilian governance – but I think that’s as much as they’re going to get.” The military will still be at the helm.

Posted by: b | Feb 9 2011 17:37 utc | 28

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