The British Army fought a bloody campaign to get some control over Sangin, a town in Helmand, Afghanistan. I have yet to find someone able to explain the particular importance of that town.
Against a lot of resistance they build a couple of bases there to control a few hundred meters of their surroundings. From a pure low-level tactical military standpoint, that was the right thing to do.
Responsibility for Helmand change in late 2010 when the U.S. Marines took over that province. They gave up on many of those bases the British had fought for at a high price of Afghan and British blood. Wrote the Telegraph:
British military sources criticised the Americans, saying they were abandoning parts of Sangin where the locals had been won over. The move would also allow the Taliban to lay more explosive devices along Route 611, the main trade artery in Sangin. … “They are trying a new approach but it was one tried by us in the past and led to troops being tied to just the outskirts of town and gave the Taliban the chance to plant IEDs virtually wherever they wanted.”
Well, guess what happened. The Marines took three month to recognize their arrogant mistake and took another month of bloody and very destructive fighting to reoccupy some of the former British bases.
Please try to watch this BBC Panorama report on that brutal campaign through the eye of the Afghan people living and dying there.
February 5, 2011
From Dictator To Dictator – Obama’s “Orderly Transition”
I'll be happy to be wrong with this, but I believe the anti-government protests in Egypt will get snuffed for now. The revolution is aborted but not yet dead. It is likely to return in one form or another though that may take a while.
As I write this hundreds of additional troops in riot gear have arrived around Tahrir. The army is trying to remove the barricades around the square and to push, slowly, slowly, the people out. A General talked to the people who are determined not to leave. Civil resistance can win against unmotivated riot-police or a mob of thugs. A few thousand demonstrators without weapons in a rainy place can not win in direct confrontation with a halfway competent military force.
The army announced that it will, from now on, "vigorously" enforce the curfew which begins at 19:00 Cairo time. I'd take them on their word. If real military violence is needed, its likely that the Presidential Guard, which is separate from the army, or armed riot police will be used for the bloody task under the cover of the night.
The decisive weight of the U.S. was put on the side of a continued military dictatorship. That certainly could have been different. The $1.3 billion bribe the U.S. is paying each year to the Egyptian military could certainly have been used to achieve a real step to democracy and a civil government.
Instead Obama's "orderly transition" will only take place from one General to another, Mubarak to Suleiman, with the later one likely to turn out to be an even more vile dictator than Mubarak ever was.
The Mubarak regime seems to be working with the U.S. administration towards a scheme which, while moving Mubarak aside, would keep the dictatorial system he implemented. More on that below.
In Tahrir square the night was calm and in the morning the crowd there was again growing. People are reinforcing the barricades they had build, expecting more tensions and attacks in the coming days.
Overnight a gas pipeline in north Sinai which delivers natural gas from Egypt to Israel was blown up. It is currently unknown who is responsible for this. There are several potential motives for such an act which do include a regime attempt to create more tensions and international pressure for a false compromise.
[S]everal groups of prominent intellectuals and political analysts are pushing plans to endorse an initial transfer of power to Mr. Suleiman, who already appears to be governing in Mr. Mubarak’s place, they said.
“The reality on the ground is that the vice president is the one managing the situation and what we want to do is legalize it,” said Wahid Abdel Neguid, the deputy director of the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies and one of the figures working on the plans. … The groups putting forward the proposal include Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian ambassador to the United States; Naguib Sawiris, one of the most prominent businessmen in Egypt; Ahmed Kamal Aboul Magd, a lawyer and influential Islamic thinker; and Ahmed Zewail, a Nobel Prize-winning chemist.
There is no person of the real opposition included in that group. Issandr at The Arabist has put up an English copy of the groups demands. His source is the Carnegie Endowment:
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.
This article gives a good impression on how brutal and systematic the police cracks down on any supporter of the anti-government forces. Note that the army is cooperating with this: `You Will Be Lynched,' Says Egyptian Policeman: First Person – not a good sign for what is coming.
On the other side the demonstrations do not get smaller, in Alexandria they were bigger today than last week, the general fear to protest has been broken, the regime was pressed to give some concessions, the neoliberals are out and the international sentiment has turned from pro-Mubarak to anti-Mubarak.
This whole thing still hangs much in balance.
—
I get the feeling that the regime continues to gear up for a full crackdown. The bureau of the online site of the Muslim Brotherhood has been attacked by "thugs" and shut down, same with the bureau of AlJazeera in Cairo and security in hotels near the Tahrir is confiscating cameras. Reporters continue to receive threats. State media are in full propaganda and spin mode to set the protesters into a bad light. When the media is chased away, the full power of the state will come down onto the protesters. Being able to defend against that is easier in masses than alone. That now may develop into a main reason to keep the square occupied.
—
Tahrir square still pretty full even though some are leaving – peaceful for now
Alexandria live pictures: Some ten thousands people, more joyous today as before says reporter
17:00 GMT – 19:00 Cairo
Alexandria: Protesters there will now stay in the street and camp out like in Tahrir
16:00 GMT – 18:00 Cairo (darkness)
Prayer in the square, more people seem to leave now
Getting dark in Cairo, some leaving – crowd at top was about 500,000 (my estimate)
"Protest leader" on State TV was fake [shows how bad these folks are]
The State TV story may be false – could be government trick
A man hits a hanged effigy of Mubarak with his shoe
State TV has one of protest leaders on in an interview – [very significant] – also shows closeer up of protest crowd for the first time
According to reporter: Big frenzy was about a (wrong) rumor that Mubarak left, some people start leaving
Four former assistents of former Interior Minister have been detained by the regime
Big frenzy on Tahrir right now – reporter does not know why
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.
Off live blogging the next few hours now for personal reasons – please update in the comments
Five things you may want to read:
Must-read: On Egypt's society , the various groups, their interests and relations, Prof. Paul Amar: Why Mubarak is out
Late but right – Prof. Marc Lynch, who is consulting the White House, says the U.S. can and should use its leverage with the Egypt military: Egypt Endgame
The Egyptian military must receive the message loudly, directly and clearly that the price of a continuing relationship with America is Mubarak's departure and a meaningful transition to a more democratic and inclusive political system. It must understand that if it doesn't do this, then the price will not just be words or public shaming but rather financial and political.
Make no mistake about it, we are witnessing an epic, historic moment of the birth of concepts that have long been denied to ordinary Arabs: the right to define ourselves and our governments, to assert our national values, to shape our governance systems, and to engage with each other and the rest of the world as free human beings, with rights that cannot be denied forever.
In January 2011, a full century after some Arabs started agitating for their freedoms from Ottoman and European colonial rule, and after many false starts in recent decades, we finally have a breakthrough to our full humanity.
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.
Lots of Molotov cocktails thrown now from both sides on a side street – all fall short of the "enemy" lines it seems
Firebombs form both sides in stand off next tp Egyptian Museum
21:00 GMT – 23:00 Cairo
Pro-democracy protesters seem to have pushed back the dictators' forces a few hundred meters along the road next the the Egyptian Museum and have errected a makeshift barricade there that gives them some protection
Suleiman/Mubarak thinks he has upper hand now – before he asked opposition groups for negotiations, now says no dialog unless protests stop
Military warned shortly before of armed goons coming to the square
Very unclear situation it seems
Video view of pro-dictator side – much less people than before – a few hundreds – maybe a thousand – military tank -M113- moving within the crowd
Firebombs just seen thrown down from a building with pro-dictator people on it
22:18 Cairo time – automatic gunfire heard in the square on AJ live feed – army repositioning
—
Despite a determined attack by government goons and security services in civilian cloth the people in the Tahrir square managed to hold their position. This alone is a big victory.
The Tahrir Square seems pretty silent for now but unfortunately too empty. Reinforcement for the pro-democracy people is said to be on its way, but we haven't seen any yet. If there is an determined attack overnight, they will likely not be able to hold out. That would be a very bloody outcome. On the other side leaving the square right now may be even more dangerous than staying there.
The Egyptian army lives off an annual 1.3 billion dollars bribe from the U.S. In a country where a teacher makes $50 per month there is no way it can make that much money with so little work. If the U.S. says it is over and Mubarak has to leave now they will make him leave. Listening to the White House press conference, it seems that the related phone calls are being made right now.
Mubarak leaving would not change much though. Omar Suleiman, chief torturer of the regime, and the other guys at the top would likely carry on with Mubarak's policies. The aim must be complete regime change. It is unlikely though that the U.S. would support that.
The people will have to fight on to get there.
I expect another big demonstration this Friday. If the Muslim Brotherhood and all the other groups openly calls out it supporters for that, the numbers may be even bigger than what we saw yesterday. That would probably be decisive.
—live blogging from today below in time reverse order—
19:00 GMT – 21:00 Cairo
Graham Wood has been on the square and writes for The Atlantic: The Battle in Cairo's Tahrir Square – he thinks the goons will clear the square later tonight.
Finally two ambulances enter Tahrir square
BBC correspondent: "US government officials make very clear to us that Mubarak now has to leave much earlier than September"
1. A cable from the State Department to a delegation taking part in a meeting of the Australia group to discuss export controls on chemical weapon materials includes this order:
If AG participants raise the issue of Vils Mirazayonov's book "State Secrets: An Insider's View of the Russian Chemical Weapons Program," the Del should: — Report any instances in which the book is raised. — Not/not start or provoke conversations about the book or engage substantively if it comes up in conversation. — Express a lack of familiarity with the issue. — Quietly discourage substantive discussions by suggesting that the issue is 'best left to experts in capitals.' CLINTON
Hmm – why would the U.S. not want to talk about Mirazayonov's book, Russias chemical weapon programs and the Novichok agent?
2. This cable describes three additional 9/11 attackers that somehow didn't make it into their plane on 9/10 and then fled via London to Qatar.
3. Richard Sale, a journalist and author of Clinton’s Secret Wars, provides an account of the CIA and Saudi intelligence rivalry with regards to Lebanon and their agents Bashir Gemayel and Rafik Hariri. In three parts at Patrick Lang's blog: Bashir and Hariri (Part 1 and 2), Crisis and Death – Hariri (Part 3)
February 1, 2011
Feb 1 – Live Coverage Of Protests In Egypt
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.
End of day comment:
It is over – though it may take a few more days.
When the Egyptian military announced that it would not use force against its people, the decisive step was taken. It allowed today's large and peaceful demonstrations and marked the end of Mubarak, the neoliberal Egyptian ruling class and the supressive system of the NDP party.
The violent crack down I expected two days ago is now unlikely to evolve.
The peole can now be certain that they will win and they will indeed win. Whoever will make it to the top after this will have to serve a quite awake und unruly people. Such pressure makes for good governments. (We in the "west" should remember that.)
This will inevitable change all of the Middle East and thereby global politics. Egypt is the most populous and the most decisive nation in the Arab world in all relevant aspects. Watch the Zionist shitting their pants.
There will be many difficulties. What to do about the 1.2 million people who work for the Interior Ministery and suppressed the people and protected the regime? Leaving them without income is dangerous, keeping them impossible. The economy is in bad shape – a social-democratic middle ground needs to be found to heal it while also lifting the poor from their mess. It will take years. Suez passage payments will have to go up, influencing global trade and prices. Some process must be found to give justice to those who where hurt and those who did the hurting.
Someone please give a big price to Al Jazeera – their coverage under these conditions is incredible. Despite equipment confiscated, the local bureau closed, licenses revoked, no internet, interupted phone lines, its satellite feeds hijacked, eight days of continuous day and night reporting – they manage to keep up and even installed new live feeds today (Alexandria) and kept many good correspondents on the ground giving live reports and high quality political analysis. Incredibly indeed. Some pretty girl, please kiss Ayman Mohyeldin, the superb AJ analyst on the ground and Evan Hill and the others who make this happen technically. Hug all the other AJ women and men. They really deserves it. And of course hug the Egyptians on the street, they deserve it even more, much more, they won.
—live blogging from today below in time reverse order—
This speech has incited more protests.
Folks in Tahrir seem not amused about that speech – loud chanting "leave" and whistling – M. speech -> #fail
Mubarak speaking on Egyptian state TV now – reading off a sheet – lamenting about looting (which he ordered to take place) – "chaos or stability" – (M. still reading from a sheet – not connecting to watchers) – "I never seeked power or influence" (except for dictating your life for the last 30 years) – will not run for next elections, will continue until handover, will discuss law on electibility with the parliament (his bootlickers), reforms blah-blah, police is responsible (haven't we seen that?) – (M. still not looking into the camera but reading off sheet) – "will die on the soil of Egypt" – "judged by history" – end.
A pic from Tahrir at sundown prayer time – a noticable bigger share of praying people than in previous protest assemblies it seems
AJ talks to a leading protester (middle class) about immediate personal economic issues: - doesn't matter how long this takes – we are screwed economically under Mubarak – we don't care anymore – we will go on
There is now a big projection screen and PA system in Tahrir Square that shows various TV stations.
Chants: "Freedom. May god make it happen. Tonight."
Mubarak to be on TV soon.
20:00 GMT – 22:00 Cairo
A historian on AJ: (transcript not verbal) "The Tahrir (Liberation) Square is named so because 110 years ago a big group of women protested in the square for women rights and took off their veils. Anyone who thinks this is about Islam, Muslim Brotherhood or anti-Israel feelings should remember that. This is about freedom."
