Live Blogging Egypt: Step 1 Is Done
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.
Retired Army General: Clear error - wait for statement no.2 of military - Mubarak sick - fact may give power to military - president psychological ill - Mubarak/Suleiman burned, grave mistake committed - grave and dire - statement 2 of military will heal
The title of this post, "Step 1 Is Done", chosen hours ago, is wrong. Step 1 isn't done, it only seemed to be. It will happen, but now in a likely bloody way.
Presidential Guard, not regular military, deployed around state TV.
Suleiman is more stupid and distant to the people than Mubarak - I didn't think that to be possible - well ...
This was political suicide by Mubarak and Suleiman and the military establishment.
Suleiman on State TV now: delegated by the president - to safeguard Egypt by president's request to help in this goal - laid down roadmap - door open for dialog: committed to peaceful transfer of power within constitution, - civilized dialog . all citizens make future pride - [blah blah] - realization of demand of youth - [blah blah] go back home, go back to my words, do not listen to satellite stations only listen to conscience, started work on relying of armored forces to preserve - [blah - blah]
Suleiman said to be on TV soon - will not matter anymore - he is gone, after more blood
I'd expect a quite bloody attack on the State TV building in Cairo tonight. This is heavily guarded by the military now. My guess: the military will be overwhelmed/change side - no matter what - if not today, than tomorrow.
AJE- Alexandria - crowd going quite crazy now - marching to military base now
Tomorrow will be bloody - the folks now are angry, really angry - expect a very, very violent Friday tomorrow - this was dumb, very, very dumb of Mubarak and of the armed forces to allow him to do such a speech
Wow - now there is real anger in Tahrir - that was a very, very stupid statement by Mubarak - where is that "Supreme Council" of the armed forces - this idiot will take you down too
Mubarak: "Speech from father to children, blood will not have gone down drain in vain, will not penalize, will on those who did bad, totally determined to fulfill demands, if legitimate, mistakes of government are natural, will punish those responsible, will not accept dictate from outside, will not run in elections, will stay until September with free elections, will keep oath, insure stability of society, peaceful transitions of power, continue to observe proper implementation, lay foot on right path of crisis - clear road - specific timetable, constitutional committee [his people], independent and transparent, unfortunate events, handed down orders for investigations, will change constitutions, para 76,77,93,189, annulment of others, propose at later state other changes, esp. election law, propose change of 179 of constitution if/when confidence restored, can not tolerate circumstances to continue, youth will be first victims of current problems, all have same problems, stability and peace of all, I defended homeland - [crowd in Tahrir is chanting loud against him] - never thought power - defining movement of history, put homeland above all, put power to vice-president [?]- no satellite state - unique Egypt spirit, lived for this nation, Egypt will live until I hand over banner, will not leave Egypt until burred.
Mubarak on TV now
Mubarak 40 minutes behind schedule to hold speech - Washington/Tel Aviv still negotiating "issues"?
Al Arabia: Mubarak to apologize to families of people killed, [some other superficial measures ... still behind events]
Reuters: Mubarak to lift emergency law, stay President but move power to Suleiman
State TV reading out charges against former ministers: corruption, corruption, corruption ...[nothing about military corruption though]
From visuals: Tahrir packed as never - a million would probably be underestimated
We need to 'keep kicking their behinds': Mohamed ElBaradei speaks to FP
Reuters: Egypt (Dis-)Info Minister: Mubarak not to step down
Mubarak TV address supposed to start soon
20:00 GMT - 22:00 Cairo
[Jacky Rowland and Ayan Moyadin deserve highest journo prices - excellent deep analysis under extremest circumstances]
State TV now shows the pictures of the big demonstration in Tahrir just like AJE - 180 degree change
NYT's Kristof tweets: "I worry that the Egyptian army's plan may be to have a Mubarak-style govt without Mubarak. Am I too pessimistic?" [answer: No - but you are wrong saying that it is the Egyptian army's plan - it is the U.S.rael's plan]
From visual: Tahrir packed more than ever - reporter: all access roads totally filled
19:00 GMT - 21:00 Cairo
Reuters: Mubarak will announce constitutional procedures before handing over powers [manipulating thigs again so Suleiman or army council can completely take over?]
Mubarak speech expected at 20:00 GMT (in one hour)
AJE analyst Ayman: Thinks the Reuters statement is not realistic - doesn't reflect real military opinion
Reuters: "Egypt army will act if protesters do not accept transfer of power to Suleiman"
CNN Homepage has embedded Nile TV feed - an Egyptian state station(!) [couldn't get AJE feed?]
Live Obama speech in Michigan on Egypt: we are witnessing history unfolding - U.S. will continue to support orderly and genuine transition - [that seems to have been all - weird - so he doesn't know?]
AJE from Alexandria: about 1,000 people in front of main station - chanting - lots of military around the city, some police back - people dislike police very much
Al Hurra (U.S. paid arabic TV): "Mubarak will arrive in Dubai within hours"
Guy from stage: "Allah akbar" - crowd repeats LOUD
18:00 GMT - 20:00 Cairo
Karama opposition leader: Believes military took Mubarak down today - worker strikes were the decisive issue - have to wait and see if demands are really met
AJE analyst Ayman: Suleiman taking over would be problematic - army taking over also problematic - people do not want military role in politics anymore - military has too much interest in status quo
Former leading NDP member: has feeling: Mubarak will give power to army, not Suleiman
Demonstration organizer: We will not talk with Suleiman - he is the system - people celebrating, but do not trust anyone - this isn't over
State TV- showed Suleiman talking to Mubarak - no tone, Suleiman explaining something, Mubarak quiet, just once seeming to say "yes"
State TV - Mubarak currently meeting with Suleiman
State TV - Mubarak speech will be live(!) from the Presidential Palace [so he has not left?]
Kefaya movement: We need a civilian state, not a military state -
National Committee of Change: The tyrant has left - Mubarak may formally remain in office, but army has the power - we will keep on until demands met
17:00 GMT - 19:00 Cairo
More army deployed into the streets over the last hours
Tahrir Square is packed and very loud
"Supreme Council" only held three meeting in 30+ years (1967, 1973, 2011)
Ret. General on AJE "this is a revolution to restore the situation" [what may that mean?]
Hmm - Mubarak will make a statement on TV this evening - Suleiman probably still in
Not everything is clear yet - White House says "situation fluid" - State TV building gets evacuated
16:20 GMT- 18:20 Cairo
---
Though not yet confirmed it seems sure now that Mubarak is out. The "Supreme Council of the Armed Forces", whatever that may be, convened and stands "on the side of the people".
Video from the council meeting did not show Mubarak and, probably more important, did not show Suleiman.
The army is said to have hindered Mubarak making a speech in which he would have given the powers to Suleiman.
I assume this means Suleiman is out too. This is then a coup within a coup. The first coup established Suleiman as strongman and kicked the neoliberal oligarchs out. This coup then removed the new installed government and the power of the internal security forces under Suleiman.
Posted by b on February 10, 2011 at 16:24 UTC | Permalink
I would guess - and I'm just guessing - if Suleiman is the man said to be at the top then the demonstrations would continue until he wasn't
Posted by: mistah charley, ph.d. | Feb 10 2011 16:46 utc | 2
Wael Ghonim, the Google guy who "re-sparked" the movement with his emotional interview after being arrested for 12 days (and has been involved in talks with the regime since), has already proclaimed "Mission Accomplished" on his twitter account - not sure if he got the ironic connotation of that phrase?
Posted by: Lex | Feb 10 2011 17:37 utc | 3
This is not "Mission Accomplished." As b said in the other thread, the Rebellion/Revolution, according to many in the crowd(s), is now about complete Regime removal. Mubarak leaving Egypt, protected from the "protesters" (they have blocked the highways to the Cairo Airport to allow him safe departure) is only one part of that initial step in this budding Rebellion/Revolution.
I've stated before that these murderous thug goon traitors need to be brought to Justice. Mubarak relaxing in some cushy retirement villa is not Justice. The entire criminal apparatus needs to be brought to Justice, not just Mubarak, otherwise, anything you think you have accomplished, will be short-lived.
Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 10 2011 17:46 utc | 4
Morocco Bama, when I hear "Mission Accomplished", a certain other goon on an aircraft carrier comes to my mind. Ghonim declaring victory now is a pity given he did gain a lot of trust and was kind of a crystallizing person for the protests in the last days. This is clearly far from over, but I am optimistic at the moment that they will not fall for an army takeover.
Not sure who it was and how trustworthy the source is, but on AJ someone said the army plans were to hold elections in one year (!).
Posted by: Lex | Feb 10 2011 18:05 utc | 5
The timing is suspicious, just before what was looking like a massive protest tomorrow, and a likely first real confrontation with the army.
If this was a pro-democracy, could they have waited to the get such massive popular backing? Or was about stopping bloodshed from pro-regime factions?
It's too early to say how it will go. But on way or another Mubarak, and hopefully, Suleiman getting kicked is a good thing.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 18:38 utc | 6
Obama: 'orderly' and 'genuine' transition. And playing the youth.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 18:39 utc | 7
About confrontation with the police and army I found a web page with the productos they use.many of them are free to buy.
from spain, prices in euros. Interesting info.
http://www.materialpolicial.com , you can translate with google.
Posted by: pepito | Feb 10 2011 18:44 utc | 8
Ominous that supposed announcement from the army if true. The original source seems to be Al Arabiya.
Al Arabiya television said the generals planned to support a handover of effective power to Suleiman, a 74-year-old former intelligence chief who has long had the goodwill of Washington and Israel. The military would take action, the broadcaster said citing unspecified sources, if protesters rejected that plan.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 19:02 utc | 10
the informal general strike in egypt was the one thing the iranian opposition was incapable of organizing & revealed that its links to the workers & peasant were poor
& i agree it is ver far from mission accomplished - i don't trust this fucking army at all but perhaps i am an old leninist in this regard - when the masses organized with the army in venezuela - it was the rank & file who allied themselves with the people - & it was their connection that created the leadership of hugo chavez - again in the cia coup of 2002 it was the rank & file of the army that once again defended the revolution
this is an army completely controlled in many aspects by us imperialism - so there is real excitement mixed again with foreboding
the masses must continue their struggle against all forms of oligarch power
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 19:12 utc | 11
Lex, yeah, I understood that you meant Dubya when you said it reminded you of another "Mission Accomplished." My post wasn't really directed at you, but rather Ghonim for being premature.
And yes, Dubya was another goon. In fact, we might as well rename the office of President of the U.S., Goon-In-Chief.
Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 10 2011 19:29 utc | 12
it all must be torn apart, root & branch
it is perhaps the first moment where those shitting themselves in the high spheres of power in israel will be obliged to make a real & substantial peace with the palestinians
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 19:36 utc | 13
If Mubarak is just going to announce that he is passing presidential powers to Suleiman while still holding the title tomorrow will be a very dangerous day. I expect a lot of anger on the streets.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 20:01 utc | 14
As I posted long ago, the army is part of the regime, and will be part of the ‘solution’ in the sense of reaching a temporary end-point.
I have no idea if the army will turn against the ppl, I have no sense about that. They might refuse or decide not (lower ranks from sentiment, upper for strategy), though that hope may seem a rather ‘noble’ projection. Or they might move forward to action. Who can know? ... Or please enlighten me. Seriously. (And thanks to all those who posted blogger snippets etc.)
Yet....
Considering uprisings and rebellions (or even revolutions) in general, and the power structure in Egypt (as I see it surely in a somewhat superficial fashion) there is absolutely no doubt that the military will easily and speedily abandon Mubarak, Suleiman, or any other old style ‘leader’ and parts of the Gvmt. as a whole if it suits them, in function of both their stake, and ‘stability.’
They hold the upper hand and it is in their interests to side with ‘the people’. When it comes to the crunch, not before. Before, better to sit on the fence, hold back, see how things develop.
Posted by: Noirette | Feb 10 2011 20:03 utc | 15
Addendum: One might even imagine something rather new: The military with the Judiciary with the pro-democracy young professionals.
Posted by: Noirette | Feb 10 2011 20:09 utc | 16
Historically, all reactionary forces on the verge of extinction invariably conduct a last desperate struggle against the revolutionary forces, and some revolutionaries are apt to be deluded for a time by this phenomenon of outward strength but inner weakness failing to grasp the essential fact that the enemy is nearing extinction while they themselves are approaching victory.
mao tse tung
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 20:30 utc | 17
f#ckin hell, play that damn tape already! Maybe the speech wasn't that full of serious "content" after all, and when looking at the live pictures andfrom Tahrir someone decided airing it now would be suicidal...
For the wait: bencnn's Mideast Lexicon
Posted by: Lex | Feb 10 2011 20:45 utc | 18
Mubarak on right now.
The stubborn old mule ain't going....
Posted by: Night Owl | Feb 10 2011 20:48 utc | 20
amazing Mubarak is going nowhere he is still calling Egyptians as children. Does he have the slightest idea of what is going on, really? He is trying to make it a patriotic struggle
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 10 2011 20:49 utc | 21
He is repeating basically the same than in his last speech but with a softer tone.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 20:51 utc | 23
I expect tomorrow won't be nice one way or another after this stupid speech.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 20:53 utc | 24
In fact with the amount of people there is now standing there in disgust they could perfectly burn Cairo this same night.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 20:55 utc | 25
Can he hear them shouting Out! Out! Out! meglamania is an awfull sickness. Solieman will be planinng the asassination right now, he is obviously on the outer. The committee is Mubarak's not Solieman's.
He is promising to promise to amend the constitution! the crowd is going crazy. Let's hope they aren't shot.
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 10 2011 20:56 utc | 26
at least he will bring down the temple with him - suliman & all the other gangsters
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 20:56 utc | 28
"This is not about Hosni Mubarak" - did he turn on the TV lately?
Posted by: Lex | Feb 10 2011 20:58 utc | 30
money money money Trouble is the other egyptians don't have any
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 10 2011 20:58 utc | 31
i can't believe his madness even before himself - whatever he is taking - i'd like a little
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 21:01 utc | 33
This is actually good news resigning & handing over to Solieman may have divided the opposition. No chance of that. Unless Solieman deposes him and tries to play national savior. Perhaps that is the strategy.
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 10 2011 21:05 utc | 35
He seems to not comprehend that most egyptians were not yet born the last time Egypt went to war.
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 10 2011 21:07 utc | 36
The drug is quite hard to come by giap. It can only be got by holding a large group of other humans in your total power for a long time.
Solieman will be angry he thought this was going to be his big moment.
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 10 2011 21:09 utc | 37
The last part he is again almost begging, provoking, to be executed by 'its' people.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 21:10 utc | 38
(i like to write things down)
mubarak, quote:
... to my sons and daughters.... i take pride in you...dreaming of a bright future...i tell you that all those who fell, their blood will no go down the drain.. i will hold accountable those who committed crimes against our youth.. i address the families of victims.. my heart went out, i felt the pain as you did, my response to your demands cannot be waived.. my commitment stems from my firm belief that your demands are lawful... it is important to admit mistakes .. i tell you i cannot find any embarassement in listening to the youth of my homeland .. my fellow citizens, i announced in plain words, i will not be in the presidential elections, i will adhere to dispositions and will continue to protect the constitution until the (power can be made over)....i have laid down a vision to exit the current crisis...in compliance with the constitution...in a manner that ensures stability...at the same time laying down a framework for laying down a peaceful transition of power...i laid down this vision ...from these harsh moments ..looking forward to the backing of all ppl interested in the ppl’s interest in function of a broad consensus...
(...)
...lay our foot on the right path to march to the future...confidence in change, in transformation, that cannot be reversed!
Egypt will be back on its feet !
Whoooooo!
Posted by: Noirette | Feb 10 2011 21:11 utc | 39
giap,
whatever he is taking - i'd like a little
Just be careful you don't take any black capsules. Because with that speech, Hosni just may have written himself a prescription.
Posted by: Night Owl | Feb 10 2011 21:12 utc | 40
it was hallucinatory that speech - & given my own understanding of sickness - i was wondering whether the opiates he has to be using are in evidence - it is the only thing that can explain such madness before reality
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 21:18 utc | 41
The people will beg the military to take down Mubarak now. Hmm.
Posted by: Lex | Feb 10 2011 21:19 utc | 42
Via Twitter, people heading to State Tv building (which has been reportedly evacuated earlier today but is heavily fortified) and their seems to be some motion towards storming the palace today. Oh my.
Posted by: Lex | Feb 10 2011 21:25 utc | 43
The speech was translated on the go in this twitter account. It seems not even 179 (emergency law) will be canceled soon. Really crazy.
http://twitter.com/SultanAlQassemi
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 21:25 utc | 44
It seems like I expected some won't even want to wait until tomorrow.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 21:27 utc | 45
they say the demonic suleimann will speak soon - perhaps one of them will be arrested
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 21:27 utc | 46
Interesting detail from AngryArab:
News from Egypt military high command by As'adA most reliable source sent me this: "D.C is striving to transfer the president's power to omri shlomo [`umar sulayman]. anan & most senior officers are against. only the commanders of the air force & republican guard are [in favor]. tantawi is in the middle. anan will win"
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 21:37 utc | 47
Bed beckons. sms messages from others around Kuwait indicate a belief that this will not end well. Let us hope they are wrong. So many agendas in play depending on what part of the world they come from CCTV (PRC) is completely supportive of Mubarak's quest for 'social stability'
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 10 2011 21:38 utc | 48
Suleiman asking people not to listen to satellite television AJ). Insane.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 21:39 utc | 50
mubarak’s speech will go down in history as the worst, most inept, out of touch, ever.
it will be studied and made an example of for 50 years.
and now suleiman spews about love of the homeland. Unbelievable.
those guys are toast.
Posted by: Noirette | Feb 10 2011 21:43 utc | 51
noirette - i felt much the same - so so inept the two of them - unbelievable
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 21:45 utc | 52
This will finish in a blood bath.what did we expect?
Posted by: Nabil from Morocco. | Feb 10 2011 21:45 utc | 53
b - there are two suicides - revolutionary suicide if you go down fighting for the people or reactionary suicide (which we have just witnessed) of going down & wanting to take the people with you
but at least the whole rotten system will go, if not today, tomorrow
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 10 2011 21:48 utc | 54
More people angry? From The Guardian.
9.48pm GMT: M: Mubarak's address was watched by President Obama onboard Air Force One. He is planning to go straight from his plane to meet with his national security team at the White House."This is not what the [US] administration was told President Mubarak was going to do," reports CNN political correspondent John King.
Reports about the 'Supreme Council' sending SMS like they were Twitter rebels:
9.51pm GMT: This is interesting: the BBC's Paul Adams reports that people in Cairo are receiving text messages from the high council of the army, saying that it is monitoring how events unfold and will decide how to act.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 21:54 utc | 55
Presidential Guard around and inside State TV. AJ says there are 3000 protesters already there, more likely coming.
Army expected to make an announcement.
Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 10 2011 21:57 utc | 56
some speculate that mob violence - and then a successful crackdown by regime forces - was the OBJECTIVE of the two speeches tonight
as the regime sees things working out: "good" Egyptians go home, get back to work, stop watching satellite tv - "bad" Egyptians get a whiff of grapeshot, and then decide they're safer being "good" Egyptians
is this a miscalculation? it depends on how stubborn the revolting masses are - and whether the army stays together and follows the orders of the regime, or fractures, or does what some suggest - "if they order us to shoot the people, we'll shoot those who gave the order"
interesting times
Posted by: mistah charley, ph.d. | Feb 10 2011 21:59 utc | 57
For the sake of the protesters and the movement, let's hope the crowd does not bite on this clear and disgraceful provocation to violence.
Posted by: Night Owl | Feb 10 2011 22:05 utc | 58
both mubarak and suleiman in a state of utter denial both like rabbits caught in the headlights..that look of complete incomprehension...that the end is near...the people have the voice...but the threat of violence is surely increasing now..of concern also are the changes to the constitution that mubarak alluded to...and isnt it nice of obummer to assure 'the young people of egypt' that he's on thier side..that must be of great comfort.
Posted by: noiseannoys | Feb 10 2011 22:11 utc | 59
retired general being interviewed on AJE now - says it looks to him like Mubarak is gravely ill and unable to govern, that's why he made this very provocative speech
Posted by: mistah charley, ph.d. | Feb 10 2011 22:12 utc | 60
The people, and the people alone, are the motive force in the making of world history.
mao tse tung
Posted by: noiseannoys | Feb 10 2011 23:08 utc | 61
both mubarak and suleiman in a state of utter denial
Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 10 2011 23:38 utc | 63
The events of the last month could not have occurred unless the palace was out of touch with egyptians' beliefs and thought processes.
But if everyone in the palace was that out of touch the regime would have imploded a while back. Therefore one has to accept that some people at the palace knew what the reaction to Mubarek and Suleiman's fireside chats would be.
Someone close to the head of the beast has a hidden agenda. That person will be a lot younger than those two old tyrants. There is no way of telling how benign that person is but it is unlikely their motives are altruistic.
Posted by: Paradise Mislaid | Feb 10 2011 23:45 utc | 64
If the mission was to prove Mubarak is bat shit insane, then it's accomplished.
Strap yourselves in. I think we may just have that Black Hole afterall.
Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 10 2011 23:45 utc | 65
Assumption that a regime entrenched for the last thirty years and supported by the two most powerful players in the area, would collapse in 15 days of demonstrations bordered on insanity already. The appointment of Suleimsn showed that the Eyptian elite was ready to dump Mubarak but they needed time for Suleiman to consolidate his power. He was equal among many under Mubarak elevating him to a level above equal, required that all equals buy in to his new position.
Hosni has transferred powers to him but Suleiman still needs time to consolidate. That's why both Mubarak and Suleiman asked for time from the Protestors. Obviously, the Protestors are not willing to do that and the one result would be interference from others referenced to as "bats" by Suleiman.
Others are not just the army but Israelis and perhaps the US too.
Maintaining Mubarak as President also keeps protestors focussed on Mubarak thus allowing other actors to make deals with Suleiman or the two majors players for their expected role in new alignment.
Mubarak's speech certainly has bought sometime for Suleiman to convince the army and others that he is the best alternate, however, there is a strong possibility that reenergized protesters might take the whole thing down and then "bats" will have an opportunity to directly interfere and attempt to force their favorite to remain in power by hook or by crook.
Posted by: Hoss | Feb 11 2011 6:01 utc | 67
The comments to this entry are closed.
The question is, is the coup within the coup sanctioned by the Masters? The Paper in the other thread suggests it is. Like I said in the other thread, there will many iterations of attempting to sabotage the Rebellion/Revolution. The strategists in DC live for this shit. All of them, and I mean all of them, have full-fledged erections right now.
Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 10 2011 16:45 utc | 1