I'll be happy to be wrong with this, but I believe the anti-government protests in Egypt will get snuffed for now. The revolution is aborted but not yet dead. It is likely to return in one form or another though that may take a while.
As I write this hundreds of additional troops in riot gear have arrived around Tahrir. The army is trying to remove the barricades around the square and to push, slowly, slowly, the people out. A General talked to the people who are determined not to leave. Civil resistance can win against unmotivated riot-police or a mob of thugs. A few thousand demonstrators without weapons in a rainy place can not win in direct confrontation with a halfway competent military force.
The army announced that it will, from now on, "vigorously" enforce the curfew which begins at 19:00 Cairo time. I'd take them on their word. If real military violence is needed, its likely that the Presidential Guard, which is separate from the army, or armed riot police will be used for the bloody task under the cover of the night.
The decisive weight of the U.S. was put on the side of a continued military dictatorship. That certainly could have been different. The $1.3 billion bribe the U.S. is paying each year to the Egyptian military could certainly have been used to achieve a real step to democracy and a civil government.
Instead Obama's "orderly transition" will only take place from one General to another, Mubarak to Suleiman, with the later one likely to turn out to be an even more vile dictator than Mubarak ever was.
To play to the media and "western" public some regime negotiations will follow with a fake opposition which will not include any of the real opposition that took to the streets.
One can already see this playing out on Al Jazeera. The editorial line of the ancor man has somewhat changed today from emphasis of the protesters and their demands to playing up general economic hardship and the talking lines of so called "world leaders" – all of them "westerners" of course. Its coverage of Cairo has markedly while the picture quality of some of their visual takes from Cairo is suddenly back to a normal level. Were there phone calls made from the White House and Cairo to Qatar who's Emir founded and controls Al Jazeera?
The negotiations with the opposition will be sold as "meaningful" without any real positive change for freedom of Egyptians. Instead of that we can expect a months long harsh but very silent and brutal crackdown on anyone who is somehow identified as related to the opposition.
Looking back the Egyptian government must have anticipated such protests for quite some time. In hindsight the total scheme that played out looks well prepared.
Taking the police off the street, releasing thugs and prisoners, organized looting, closing down communication, closing down commerce and banking – all done by the regime, not the opposition, without any real need to do so – was sold by the regime propaganda as done by the protesters.
In between this "chaos and fear" campaign a disgruntled military initiated a coup at the very top of the Egyptian government. Mubarak was pressed by the military to name a General as successor and to install a cabinet led by another General. He had to discard his plans to install his own son Gamal and his neoliberal entourage as his successor. Some scapegoats will be found and kicked out of the political hierarchy.
That done, the military has found ways to fix relations with Washington which for a short moment seemed to lean to the side of the protesters. Concerted pressure from the Israeli, Egyptian and Saudi lobby helped. As did the usual reflex of Obama to play to his constituency while actually doing the opposite of what they demand. "Stability" for Israel was and is the primary concern in Washington D.C. We thereby now get "orderly transition".
Its now time to develop new strategies that can defeat the government playbook we have seen here.