Reading The Guardian interpretation of the announcement it’s a full endorsement of Mubarak/Suleiman. The promises about an orderly transition with no counter-coup after the Egyptian return to ‘normality’ are exactly the same. Unless they are fully sure that the army conscripts won’t turn on they look like trapped rats that can’t even jump the sinking ship.

7am: The army said the emergency law would be ended “as soon as the current circumstances end”, which indicates that the army want the people off the streets. As Chris McGreal said earlier (see 9.45am), everyone will be closely watching the reaction of the military on the streets today.
10.09am: The army also said none of the “honourable” protesters would be prosecuted.
Chris McGreal, in Cairo, has given a snap response to the statement by the Supreme Military Council. “The army has thrown its weight behind the status quo for now,” he told me. However Chris suggested that the army may be warning Mubarak that he must carry out the reforms that he has promised.
That might not be enough to meet the high expectations of many of the protesters, who had place their hopes in the hands of the military.
9.58am: The army also guaranteed a free and fair presidential election, constitutional changes and protection of the nation.
9.51am: The military statement has just been read out. The translation was difficult to follow but the Supreme Military Council essentially seemed to be saying it would help see through the transition to democracy but there was no indication that it is opposed to Mubarak and/or Suleiman being involved in that transition.

Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 11 2011 10:25 utc | 4

Have you read the joke about the SC statements?

Communique Number Two by As’ad
The Egyptian Military High Command just issued its second communique: it said that it has met and will meet again, and that Communique number 3 will confirm that.

Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 11 2011 13:26 utc | 6

The Egyptian woman in Egypt I continue to quote from another forum has this to say. Once again, it resonates:

I was too crushed to be coherent yesterday, but you have to understand that the signs were absolutely unmistakable last night that it was “Game Over”: first, only once before had the Egyptian people heard the words “Communication #1” from the Armed Forces, and that was in 1952 after the army coup against the foreign-dominated monarchy. Let me repeat: only once before. Communique #1, at around 5:00pm, specified that the army stood behind the people’s demands and declared them legitimate.
Second, the Supreme Military Council only held an open meeting twice before in its history: once during the 1967 war and once during the 1973 war. The video of the meeting scanned all those present, clearly showing that neither Mubarak nor Suleiman was present.
Third, at 9:33pm, around an hour and a half before Mubarak’s speech, we all received a message on our mobile phones from the Armed Forces: The Supreme Council is currently meeting to study the situation and will issue an important statement shortly.
Fourth, a number of officers in uniform joined the protesters in Tahrir Square and in front of the Broadcast & Television Building, and one of them, a colonel, made one of the most fiery speeches ever, demanding that the army leadership “do their job” and defend the rights of the Egyptian people against the criminal regime.
All these signs pointed unmistakably to one thing: an army coup forcibly removing the Mubarak regime.
But then…nothing. No “Communique #2” which everybody was expecting after Mubarak’s speech at 11:00pm, no peep from the army after Suleiman’s speech shortly afterward. No “important statement”. Nada, zip, zilch.
My fear is that the regime arrested (or worse) the leaders of the armed forces before they could move against Mubarak & Suleiman. I can’t think of any other explanation for this bizarre silence after all the announcements that raised such high expectations.
If so, this would set the stage for an uprising within the army itself. Loyalists to the regime are a small but powerful minority at the highest levels of the armed forces, including of course the Republican Guard, and they have the full backing of Israel — it would be naive and stupid to believe that Israel’s steadfast support is not a major factor in the regime’s stubborn refusal to back down.
But I don’t know what he could do: right now the presidential palace is surrounded, the Broadcast & Television Building is surrounded, the parliament is surrounded, the cabinet headquarters are surrounded, and the crowds are only becoming bigger and more determined; enraged, yes, but still nonviolent.
Meanwhile, a massacre took place in the posh neighborhood of Maadi this morning. Police opened fire on unarmed demonstrators heading towards the residence of the Israeli ambassador, killing 11, including a number of children, and wounding dozens. No other details yet. The fucking Israeli ambassador isn’t even fucking there — he flew the coop weeks ago, after the Mossad spy cell was uncovered.

I think it’s clear that the Military is split along class lines….which also happens to be according to rank. I also think that it is clear, implicit, but not explicit that one side of the split, guess which one, will go along with the “protesters” in taking the next step…..and we all know that step, even though it’s not yet been mentioned for fear of the consequences. At that point, it will be a battle between the Military Brass and the rest of the country. There will be much blood shed, but the Rebellion/Revolution will succeed in taking down the regime. What the West does with that, I’m not sure. It is imperative in all this that the People lead this, acting as one, as they have been doing all along, and the Army aids them in the effort….but DOES NOT lead the effort. The Army should only be seen as, and used as, a tool in taking the next step. If it is allowed to lead the effort, I’m certain co-optation will occur, and ultimately the Rebellion/Revolution will be sabotaged.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 11 2011 14:00 utc | 8

Alexandria – if that crowd would press, the few (100?) soldiers/sailers deployed would be overrun
Yes, from the pictures an AJ TV, it appears the crowd could easily go around them. How long will this standoff last?
As an important aside,
b, as others have said before, thank you so much for your posts dedicated to this Egyptian Revolution.

Posted by: Rick | Feb 11 2011 14:08 utc | 10

The ‘president’ leaving for Sharm El Sheikh while the palace is surrounded might be taken as a sign that he doesn’t even trust his own presidential guard. Or that at least he isn’t taking any chances. Yesterday we saw several mid ranked officers ‘switch sides.’ If these reports are true it is a huge sign. Captains Majors don’t just leave their units. b, Can you imaging such a thing in the Bundeswehr? It is a sign that the Generals are loosing control of their army. They will not give an order to shoot as they will likely be the ones getting shot.
For the past few weeks it seems the demonstrators have done everything right. Avoiding violence, but defending themselves when attacked. Using persuasion to win over the soldiers. And all this with no clear leadership. Somehow they manage it by consensus. I’m curious if there is a historical precedent.

Posted by: Lysander | Feb 11 2011 14:57 utc | 12

Another source of very recent / live video streamed directly by protesters:
http://bambuser.com/egypt

Posted by: Lex | Feb 11 2011 15:07 utc | 14

So it’s the Suleiman with their old general pals. Will be that enough? Not without a more transparent transition timeline. But a lot of Egyptian are refusing to go against the army so who knows. The Egyptian protesters are too peaceful for my temper :).

Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 11 2011 16:07 utc | 16

So the army is still sitting on the fence, or is showing a united front to maintain its power and paper over internal quarrels.
My first impression of the Army statement (AlJ) was of a statement made by committee – the sort of minimal talking points one can agree on but that really go nowhere, present a consensus on vague, general points that don’t commit to anything and say nothing about the future. This is a such a sign of weakness that it made me question the role /strength of the army!
My second was that what the army is doing is defending economic interests. Not concerned too much with who exactly is in power as long as they can keep their biznesses churning.
UPDATE as ONGOING:
Oh, peeling onions, cleaning the floor, I hear Mubarak has stepped down.
Three cheers for the Egyptians, I’m so happy. No words for now.

Posted by: Noirette | Feb 11 2011 16:10 utc | 18

People will likely cool down at least for a while like in Tunisia and see how the process unfolds. If by next week they are still playing games there will be another round. I’m not sure if Tahrir will be vacated until it becomes clear who is in power and with what intention.

Posted by: ThePaper | Feb 11 2011 16:25 utc | 20

Yes, Rick, they called that well in advance.

Posted by: Noirette | Feb 11 2011 16:29 utc | 22

“What powers does Suleiman now have?”
There is no Vice-President now. Hopefully he is out. I believe Mubarak’s power is now held by the Army but the Parliament speaker will be President.

Posted by: Rick | Feb 11 2011 16:37 utc | 24

BBC News – Egypt unrest

1652: Al-Arabiya reports that the Higher Military Council will sack the cabinet, suspend both houses of parliament and rule with the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, the country’s highest judicial body. A statement is expected later on Friday.

@b – great to see the wiskey bar back again!

Posted by: Fran | Feb 11 2011 17:04 utc | 26

Mubarak’s Location – a rumor
A coworker of my spouse is an Egyptian woman (U.S. citizen now) who formerly worked for the United Arab Emirates embassy in Washington, DC. She asserts that Mubarak is NOT in Sharm el Sheik, as believed and reported on AJE. He has gone to safe haven in the Emirates.
He is very ill from cancer, she also says, and it is very unlikely he’d live long enough for a fair trial in any case.

Posted by: mistah charley, ph.d. | Feb 11 2011 17:13 utc | 28

@Claudio – thanks for stopping lurking – this bar needs its comments
My take on the events: it’s clear that the military establishment has decided it can’t/doesn’t want to suppress the opposition violently, at least until it is so strong, and so it tries to concede as little as possible to the people, just what strictly necessary to stop the momentum of the movement and then wait and hope for its decline. It has also decided it must present a united front to egyptian society and to the rest of the world, so everyone sticks to this compromise and the internal debates are completely opaque to us.
That certainly is the thinking of the army, at least the very top, but I have my doubts that they will be able to follow through with that. Expect more protests tomorrow. Tahrir will not relent.

Posted by: b | Feb 11 2011 17:29 utc | 30

Nothing like a glass of celebratory wine after my morning bowl of oatmeal. See what you do to me, b?
Viva La Egypt… cheers! And thanks so much for the fine posts (as always) over these 19 days.

Posted by: Eureka Springs | Feb 11 2011 18:08 utc | 32

@ghonim: Dear Western Governments, You’ve been silent for 30 years supporting the regime that was oppressing us. Please don’t get involved now #Jan25

Posted by: Rick | Feb 11 2011 18:16 utc | 34

I thought the tone of the army communication no. 3 was to emphasise that the army is in charge of things. I think there is doubt about that; that is why they are insisting. But I am not at all sure that they are in charge – only barely at best.

Posted by: alexno | Feb 11 2011 18:35 utc | 36

Copeland @31, well said, and I agree.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 11 2011 18:47 utc | 38

I’m still trying to reconcile the speeches last night with what has occurred today with Mubarak resigning. It’s quite bizarre, actually.
Any chance there’s a room available for Mubarak at the Hague?
A lesson to all dictators, current and future. Do not place your wealth in Swiss Banks. The Swiss Bankers will confiscate your wealth when, and if, you’re on the ropes. This message has been brought to you by NBN (National Bank of Nigeria).

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 11 2011 18:55 utc | 40

morocco bama
he didn’t look a happy puppy giving his 30 second elocution

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 11 2011 19:27 utc | 42

Indeed, he didn’t. He’s a blood thirsty Morloch who will have to be physically removed and restrained. I am impressively proud of the people of Egypt for this initial victory. They are truly an inspiration to the entire world that seeks to rid the planet of this culture of dominance……to the conscious ones…..and the ones with conscience. This victory should be used as a platform for the next victory, and the next after that. The entire apparatus must be dismantled, and as I have said in other threads, part of the process must be the rendering of Justice for past crimes. Obama says forget the past, let’s move forward, and, of course, we know why he says it, but we also know that the past must be accurately recounted and reconciled before liberation is complete, lest the past, once again, subsumes the present and future.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Feb 11 2011 19:38 utc | 44

The Angry Arab seems a bit more sanguine:

The biggest victory is that `Umar Sulaman is out of the picture now. Israel/US/Saudi Arabia were hoping that he would be the extension of Mubarak until some other clone of Mubarak is found. That was not meant to be.

Posted by: Maracatu | Feb 11 2011 20:00 utc | 46

The Tunisian, and especially the Egyptian people – have given the world a new vision of the possible. This is a lot more than a local revolution, but a template of people power over state power. Finally, a glimpse of light in a very dark world.

Posted by: anna missed | Feb 11 2011 20:29 utc | 48

i would sleep better this night if suleiman was arrested & john simpson was sent back to his luxurious apartement in the 6th arrondisement to make a correct calculation of how miserably men like him do not understand the world, or more especially, the people, at all

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 11 2011 20:44 utc | 50

On the army:
The army is vital for understanding today’s events, but I suspect not in the way supposed. It is said that the army was split, and therefore the regime could not crack down on the demonstrators. The photos of demonstrators sleeping on the wheels of M60 tanks (not M113 armoured personnel-carriers) spoke volumes.
The Egyptian army is split socially three ways:
1)The High Command is with Mubarak. We saw that in Army communiqué no.3 just now.
2) The lower officers come from the same educated classes as are demonstrating, and are turning the guns of the tanks away from the demonstrators.
3) The private soldiers are conscripts from the Egyptian peasantry. They haven’t followed the upper command, rather their lower officers. They haven’t rebelled, and fired on the demonstrators.
This last is the best sign of feeling in Egypt. The private soldiers have gone with the demonstrators rather than the regime. No doubt the demonstrators come from the tweeting classes. ‘Tweeting classes’ is not a bad description of the educated classes who know Twitter. The difference from the Green Revolution in Iran in 2009 is that there also the demonstrators were of the tweeting classes, but they were not supported by the non-tweeters.
The Egyptian army is going to have a big problem in reunifying. Lots of concessions are going to have to be made.
I don’t see that the army can impose a new dictatorship.

Posted by: alexno | Feb 11 2011 21:04 utc | 52

remembereringgiap #53,
I wonder what is happenning at the Gaza Strip border right now. Has there been any news today?

Posted by: Rick | Feb 11 2011 21:26 utc | 54

great coverage, b. great to see the bar lights on, yesss egypt!

Posted by: melo | Feb 11 2011 21:39 utc | 56

I entirely agree with r’giap (53) that this is a glorious day for Egypt. I should have gone to the Egyptian Embassy this evening, in order to participate in the celebrations, rather than remain at my computer.
However, I am more interested in the future. I don’t see, for the reasons above, that the military can impose a new dictatorship. More likely, a weak civilian regime. That’s not so bad, as the routes to Gaza will be opened.

Posted by: alexno | Feb 11 2011 21:59 utc | 58

truely a great day for the people of egypt and as has been said previuosly this brings light and hope to people the world over…empire and their running dogs will need to listen more closly to the people in the future

Posted by: noiseannoys | Feb 11 2011 22:52 utc | 60

from angry arab
Gaza tunnels
Please, please. Those who are entering through the Gaza tunnels, try to observe the newly-installed traffic lights to avoid traffic jams. We need to get organized.
!!!!!

Posted by: annie | Feb 11 2011 23:16 utc | 62

uffering
great evil
masses learn
what
lacan left out
in lectures
in a city
full of light
not
so far
from here
alexandria
appears closer
& her books
left open
to touch
carefully
as you would
conversation in cafe
at wharves
where workers weep
after hearing
tyrant tell
tale told
too many times
tears of people
turn & in turning
turn away
from father
who chillingly chides
them so beautiful
extraordinary masses
breathing
in & out
history & time
itself stops
for moment
to listen
to docker
whose tears
are volumes
we are
yet
to read
cb février 11

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 11 2011 23:35 utc | 64

b, “15 hours of live blogging – I must be crazy”
Oh no! Please don’t quit now! – What about Yemen (Friday,Feb.11), Algeria (Saturday), Bahrain (Monday), Libya (Thursday), Morocco, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Sudan, Iran, …, … ??
Just joking! Thanks again for all your good work. Whatever you do will be appreciated.

Posted by: Rick | Feb 12 2011 2:03 utc | 66

@ rem’gap
Agree with you… and yes, where is the snake?
On a more pleasant note,
b, may I add my thanks for all that you have done to keep us up-to-date with news of these momentous events…
It takes a bit of change (the paper kind) to keep this bar open… please direct me to where I can pay my tab – I’m sure others want to pay up too.
Get some well deserved rest. namaste

Posted by: crone | Feb 12 2011 2:41 utc | 68

@ R’giap on your poem of the day: whoa. Thank you too. It sings.

Posted by: d.l.finn | Feb 12 2011 2:52 utc | 70

Let’s not overlook the most important aspect to all that has happened here.
They found a way to organize. The social network.
This is huge.

Posted by: pb | Feb 12 2011 6:33 utc | 72

Thank you b and for the poem r’giap. There’s no place like here.

Posted by: beq | Feb 12 2011 12:39 utc | 74