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Bloody Revolutions
In Egypt a very big crowd is celebrating their, so far, successful revolution in Tahrir square.
Today's protests in Yemen seem not to have been violently suppressed yet.
In Benghazi, Lybia, members of Ghaddafi's "revolutionary committees" have used live fire against protesters.
AlJazeerah just had a doctor from Salmaniya hospital in Bahrain on the phone. He was in panic. The hospital is "full of casualties". Within the last hours many people have been shot and the emergency service can not get through to them.
Good luck to all revolutionaries.
It would be good to be wrong, but it is unlikely that any of the other public protests or ‘revolutions’ in North Africa & the ME will be successful.
Two things dictate that. The first is more powerful than the second reason which could end up being the ingredient which sufficiently mitigates the first to allow some success in another Arab state. That is less likely than it being a factor in preventing change but it is still possible.
The reason the US has created a system whereby military tactics and weapons platforms are drastically changed every few years didn’t start off being an ingenious ploy to keep feeding tax revenue to the rich.
The process began as a natural consequence of the old saw about not being able to win a new battle using the same tactics which won the last fight.
This is simple stuff as a tactic shows success, the opponent researches and develops the best way to counter it. The Egyptian Army and its US supporters had a devil of a job getting Mubarak out of his palace and they had no chance of getting him on an airplane to anywhere, after Mubarak Inc discovered how Ben Ali had been tricked. Initially the Egyptian counter revolution pulled all sorts of interesting tricks out of its kit-bag to defeat the protesters. Many of them such as the use of battalgi and crims seemed initially effective to outsiders, but Egyptians had seen them all before and the protesters had developed counters to all the known tactics. That had wrong footed the Mubarakists while it gave Egyptians who had been too terrified to join in up until then, the courage to come out in real number.
As many have since learned the Egyptian protests had been developed over a period of some years. The fall in Tunisia was just a catalyst it wasn’t the flame which started the reaction.
Most of the other Arab nations in revolt just don’t have the history or organization which the Egyptian movement had. This means that they are pretty much stuck with aping the tactics the Egyptians used, but they don’t have well seasoned leadership able to answer the tactics of the counter revolution, especially when the counter revolution does something ‘off the wall’ that hasn’t been tried and answered in Egypt.
Whatever Obama is telling “the People of the Mid East” whatever generalization he uses to describe a multitude of different people, Obama’s generals and intelligence analysts will be working hard with the likes of Juan Cole and other tame ME advisers drafting up tactics they believe will counter the ‘Arab revolution’.
Some will fail, laughably so, but some will be nasty, brutish and subtle and may succeed. The only rule will be “US fingerprints must not be left at the scene”. Everything else is OK, anything that will break this cycle in the short term without implicating USA, no matter how inhumane or long term debilitating, will be tried if it is believed to have the faintest chance of success.
The real horror stories are coming from two spots each at the opposite end of what the US calls the ME. At the opposite end geographically and of the US friendship/hegemony.
In the left corner is Libya, the most maligned Arab State on the planet and in the right corner is one of the US’ best ‘friends’ the plucky little Bahrain as imperial consuls inevitably refer to the worst blot on the US record of trading the rights of a nation’s citizens for the right of the US to do as it pleases in a foreign land.
This brings us to the second major reason why the revolutions are more likely than not to be unsuccessful. None of the other states where protest is running hot, have a similar demography to Egypt’s. Worst of all none of them have anything like the social cohesiveness of Egypt.
Lets start with Bahrain. At the moment (get it while it lasts) there is an extremely accurate and objective history of Bahrain at Wikipedia.
It seems impenetrable because there is a lot of information with very little of the anecdotal stuff most of us find essential to help history slip past the filters,. When you read it you will discover a couple of things. That Bahrain has been a major player in the power struggles of the Gulf, sometimes the supreme leader. It hasn’t always been an insignificant island state. From time to time Bahrain’s leaders have used their unique strategic position to ensure dominance. Just the Qarmatians’ story could make a half dozen original blockbuster novels, movies or vid games. The other important thing to learn about Bahrain is that the last few centuries of the second millennium were not kind to Bahrain. The island state had been reduced to the sort of poverty that made it only suitable for the people who are always left at the bottom of the Arab shit-pile, the Shia.
Bahrain had become the butt of power struggle humor. The place that clans invaded when they needed to assert themselves but couldn’t win a decent war against leading clans. By the early 19Th century there had been a procession of assholes invading taking control and then after being ruined by the hopelessness of Bahrain’s situation, they would have become sufficiently weakened to be invaded by the next clan which wanted to prove itself.
In the 1780’s the Al Khalif clan, a Sunni tribe from Qatar who ruled most of Southern Persia took control of Bahrain off the Al-Madhkur clan, originally from Oman. By 1820 when the english were organizing their naval then military, then colonial dominance of the gulf, the Al Khalifa’s were probably due. Omanis and the Al Sauds had both tried to take over, so they were due all right. Due to get kicked out that is. That didn’t suit the english though who had designs on Arabia and who saw the necessity of protecting Arabia’s eastern flank, having a great harbor to rn’r their boats and the the famous english tradition of divide and rule ensure a Sunni who may even ally with the Sunnis in control of Saudi. Especially if Al Khalifa ensured the Shia in eastern Saudi didn’t get support from Shia in Bahrain to cause trouble on the Arabian peninsular.
This complex treaty which had to cope with the Ottoman Empires hegemony and skirted it neatly has lasted. It ‘officially’ ended in 1968 when the english officially pulled out of the Gulf but it had major revisions especially the post WW2 changes in 1951 that brought the US explicitly into the deal. The basis of the treaty which became known as the “Perpetual Truce of Peace and Friendship” has always been the promise by USuk (formerly known as england) to “to support the rule of the Al Khalifa in Bahrain”.
I have been too busy with work to watch Al Jazeera but I would not be surprised to discover that media outlet less supportive of the protesters of Bahrain. I did catch the Foreign Ministers Thursday press conference where a Bahraini journalist chastised the government for its actions against the protesters. She maintained that this was not a sectarian issue. As Bahrain has developed, there has been a growth in the number of Sunni Bahrainis, yet many of these citizens do not belong to the political elite. They have also joined in the struggle which makes it tough to sell this as a ‘persian takeover’.
If the US let the Al Khalifas fall it would tell the Al Thanis of Qatar, that their guarantees were no good. The english had a similar treaty with the Al Khalifa’s for Qatar as they did for Bahrain but in 1868 they did a deal which promised the Al Khalifa’s a sinecure in return for a takeover of the king’s job by the Al Thanis. The ‘guaranteed sinecure’ was quenched by the Ottomans after a short period.
You couldn’t dream some of this stuff up. It is important to note however than western interference has held most of the eastern Arabian communities in stasis for nearly 200 years. The ebb and flow of regular change of royal houses did at least ensure that there were some changes to the society, particularly where there had been egregious wrongs. The new rulers would right those wrongs to appease the population. Right before they wronged them. But Arabs haven’t even had that for nigh on two centuries. No wonder they are mad.
As well as Al Thanis in Qatar, there are the Al Sabah clan in Kuwait where this has been posted, who would get very nervous and there is the big one, the one that few in the media anywhere in the world have mentioned as a possible revolution – the Al Saud clan who were so vain they named the home of mecca after themselves, Saudi Arabia. The nation the US must ensure never gains political freedom if the US intends to stand by its claim that the american way of life is non-negotiable.
Bahrainis deserve their freedom. Probably more than any other people in the entire ME region. But they won’t get it. Not while the US has a president whose asshole is facing the ground.
If Bahrainis can stay brave, we can expect that the next move by US/Al Khalifa will be to constrain the flow of information out of the island. Al Jazeera will most likely do as it is told. Any substantial media outlet that does not will be courting a missile through their hotel window . Maybe it will be more subtle this time and will be something more effective but quieter such as the old thallium in the office milk trick.
So lets go west and consider Libya. This one is personally painful. Muammar al-Gaddafi may not have been great for some of the citizens of Libya, but he provided a much needed bulwark against US and Soviet imperialism, and he supported resistance movements in Europe & Asia at a time when no one else would.
Anyone who has had a snail mail letter from Libya should know the thrill one gets from reading the envelope whose cover is frequently plastered with english quotations from the Green Book and the stamps repeat the socialist imprecations in Arabic.
These little sayings are always humanist and can set the mind off on a philosophic excursion not unlike 12 steppers little books of meditations. Who could disagree with:
“The freedom of a human being is lacking if his or her needs are controlled by others, for
need may lead to the enslavement of one person by another. Furthermore, exploitation is
caused by need. Need is an intrinsic problem and conflict is initiated by the control of
one’s needs by another. “
However the Ghadaffi regime has always suffered from the belief that Ghadaffi favors his own clan. Benghazi and its surrounding area has population comprised of the Sa’ada tribe (sub-tribes are Awaqir and Barghathi), which was also the tribe of the royal family deposed by Ghadaffi’s revolution. Ghadaffi has always been vulnerable to traditional Arab tribalism because he comes from a small unconnected tribe, and he found it necessary to be publicly sworn fealty by larger tribes. In 1993 the leader of the Bani Walid tribe swore just such an oath of loyalty to Ghaddafi, following unrest which had been stirred up by shortages due to the Lockerbie sanctions.
Some sources have alleged Bani Walid are at the forefront of the protests now.
Even so that tribalist culture which gives shape to the protests is also the revolution’s major handicap. It is difficult to conceive of the unity that a revolution needs growing out of tribalist dissension. Ghadaffi retains support Tripoli and further west.
Lets hope he institutes the reforms he has failed to deliver on now, because the alternative is a great deal of blood lost on all sides.
Posted by: UreKismet | Feb 19 2011 0:44 utc | 7
From Le Temps, 17.2.2011 (no link: fr, paywall)
i know absolutely nothing about described events, just a summary. my additions are in brackets.
topic: alleged proximate cause of the demos in Lybia.
In June 2006, more than 1,200 inmates of prison Abu Salim, Tripoli, were massacred, in the space of a few hours, in circumstances that have never been elucidated.
Fethi Tarbel, lawyer, is well known in Lybia, as he is the coordinator of the various bodies and individuals who represent the families of the victims. For weeks he had been in discussion with Abdallah Senoussi, high up responsible for security (and Kadahfi bro-in-law), attempting to negotiate (what the article does not say.) Some disagreement ensued, and Tarbel was arrested. – He was released in less than a day.
The Benghazi families (see Ure Kismet at 7- 8) of victims immediately went out into the streets, about 1,500 ppl. They were dispersed with water cannons and rubber bullets, two people died (unconfirmed), 38 wounded in hospital, and some arrests.
Other article:
One half hour after Mubarak’s departure, the Swiss announced they would ‘block the accounts’ of Mubarak, his family, high officials. They had established a list (obviously at least a week in advance.) To glorious praise in Egypt, Switzerland is a Great Country, hooray!
Monday or Tueday, the Egyptian authorities transmitted a list of individuals whose monies they desire to block and have returned – to the EU, CH, and the US. The list is very detailed, even includes a minor child.
Mubarak and his close family ARE NOT ON IT.
my comment: The sum of 70 or so billion that Mubarak and his clan allegedly amassed was wafted by the Guardian, and seems to me entirely made up and fanciful, far too large. The Guardian moreover is not known for its grasp of numbers. I very much doubt that any consequent sums will be found in CH – son Gamal trained at Bank of America – and whatever is discovered will have been left on purpose, as a sort of sop, a minor treasure that will halt other procedures.
In this matter, everybody is pretending and playing a political-financial game, and the Swiss seem willing to take on two roles – ‘haven for tax evaders and dictators’ plus ‘good cop’, thus cleverly conforming to the stereotype, shielding others, and gathering Brownie Points from the US. The losers will be the Egyptian ppl, it is all utterly disgraceful.
To date, maybe early days yet, the hunt for Ben Ali funds in CH has turned up a few million.
Posted by: Noirette | Feb 19 2011 18:10 utc | 21
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