News & views …

The other one is pretty full.

"E Pluribus Unum", those are the very first three words in the dissertation of Karl Theodor Maria Nikolaus Johann Jacob Philipp Franz Joseph Sylvester von und zu Guttenberg (yes, those are all his names). K.T. zu Guttenberg is the current conservative German Minister of Defense. 

It is still unknown if the use of those three words were meant as a hidden joke by the ghostwriter, or if Guttenberg himself plagiarized them. Whatever. They and the first two paragraphs of the introduction to the dissertation, the part an author usually writes very carefully and without quoting anyone else, were copied from a piece by another author in a German conservative newspaper without being marked as a citation, an academical no-no.

Cont. reading: Guttenberg’s E Pluribus Unum

In which Tzipi Livni explains that Israel isn’t a democratic state:

democracy to take root in the Arab world – not merely as a government system but as a values system that embraces nonviolence, coexistence, freedom, opportunity and equality

Again, sorry for not posting. Taking down Guttenberg is very important for my country. Our work on that is quite successful, but he is stubborn and we'll need another day or two helping to get it done. (I am involved in some of the technical issues on this.)

Please use this thread to post news and views on Libya and other Middle East countries that currently try to throw out their dictators.

Thanks.

Sorry for currently not posting on global issues. I am busy working on this project (in German) which crowd sources plagiarized passages in the Ph.D. dissertation of the current German defense minister Guttenberg. The crowd so far found plagiarized parts on 248 out of 408 dissertation pages :-).

As Guttenberg was created to become the future German chancellor and a trustworthy poodle of U.S. politics, quite abhorrent if it were to happen, this is a needed act of preemptive regime change.

Reuters has some bits of the story and Spiegel, which earlier took part in promoting and marketing Guttenberg as the best thing since sliced bread, has an English writeup and an update.

It is likely that Guttenberg did not write his dissertation at all. He payed some ghost writer who simply copied lots of stuff from Internet sources. He still insists that the whole thing is his own work. A big mistake as it will not leave him any excuse for all the illegal plagiarizing. His usual reflex to any other scandal within his realm, to fire immediately and without investigation some innocent scapegoats, will thereby not work.

We believe that if we find more plagiarized stuff by him, and can put it into an easily understandable and presentable format, he will have to resign by Monday.

Expect light posting here until that happens.

In Egypt a very big crowd is celebrating their, so far, successful revolution in Tahrir square.

Today's protests in Yemen seem not to have been violently suppressed yet.

In Benghazi, Lybia, members of Ghaddafi's "revolutionary committees" have used live fire against protesters.

AlJazeerah just had a doctor from Salmaniya hospital in Bahrain on the phone. He was in panic. The hospital is "full of casualties". Within the last hours many people have been shot and the emergency service can not get through to them.

Good luck to all revolutionaries.

How Goldman Killed A.I.G. – NYT
Interesting but a bit one sided. AIG made, driven by greed, lots of mistakes. But in the end it was Goldman which willfully and out of pure greed took AIG down.

Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail? – Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone
Because they bribe the politicians, regulators and justices.

Spy Games: Inside the Convoluted Plot to Bring Down WikiLeaks – Wired
How the Chamber of Commerce and Bank of America planned to use military COIN tools to suppress critics.

Egypt's Cauldron of Revolt – Anand Gopal, FP
Worker strikes and their role in the Egyptian revolution.

Tactics and self-defense for the modern protester (pdf)
A short booklet which urgently needs some rewriting and extending – may be usefuls to some.

I still need to read up on Bahrain. The protests there have the usual background. They are about dignity and social-economic issues. But there is an additional layer. The majority Shia Bahrain was invaded by a Sunni tribe some 230 years ago and is still under its occupation. There is said to be split in the ruling family with prime minster and defense minister on one side and the king and the interior minister on the other. The army and police is made up of lots of foreigners, Pakistanis, Syrians etc. That may well explain their brutal behavior. The violence they used is tactically idiotic and the amount of teargas deployed against totally peaceful demonstrators is just insane.

This explains why the ruling systems in Iran, Syria and Sudan will not fall through public anger.

There are two important points about the American role in Arab and Muslim countries in particular: The vast majority of the people feel that the primary objectives of American policy in the region are to control oil and protect Israel—not to advance democracy. Anger with the United States is only partly about American support for repressive regimes, as it is at the core based on important policy issues, particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict and Iraq–as I have found consistently in the public-opinion polls I have conducted at the University of Maryland in conjunction with Zogby International.

In addition, the U.S. pursuit of priority national interests, such as protecting the American military presence in the Middle East, fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, confronting al-Qaeda and its allies, and minimizing threats to Israel, have not only trumped all else but have inadvertently contributed to the prevalence of repression: Rulers are externally rewarded for supporting American policies that are highly resented by their publics, which in the process makes the rulers more insecure and more inclined toward repression to prevent revolts.

Like every other country Syria, Sudan and Iran have their problems and they have some people who hate the ruling regimes and want to change them. But those people do not have enough support within the society to be able to successfully attempt a revolution.

All the other Middle Eastern regimes are now in danger of revolution attempts. What makes the situation in those Arab regimes different is the support of their rulers for Israel and other colonial U.S. projects.

Deep down this goes back to the dignity of the common people. Economic hardship is difficult, but survivable. To have no say in politics isn't liked, but most are not interested anyway. But being suppressed for even attempting to help fellow Arabs and Muslims, Iraqis and Palestinians, hurts deeply. It is indignient.

This is the secret ingredient that creates the revolutionary storm which now rages over pro-U.S. regimes in the Middle East.  Regimes in countries where this ingredient does not exits will be safe.

It is also the reason why the U.S. will in the end find no way to protect its subordinate rulers in these countries.

Well, first of all, on Iran, we were clear then and we are clear now that what has been true in Egypt should be true in Iran, which is that people should be able to express their opinions and their grievances and seek a more responsive government. What's been different is the Iranian government’s response, which is to shoot people and beat people and arrest people.
…
I find it ironic that you’ve got the Iranian regime pretending to celebrate what happened in Egypt when, in fact, they have acted in direct contrast to what happened in Egypt by gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully in Iran.
Press Conference by the President, Feb 15 2011

The U.N. human rights chief said on Tuesday she had unconfirmed reports that up to 300 people may have been killed and over 3,000 injured in the unrest that has engulfed Egypt for the past week. The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, was appalled by reported death toll and injury count, saying, "I urge the Egyptian authorities to ensure police and other security forces scrupulously avoid excessive use of force."
…
Pillay urged investigations into the role of security forces during the violence and their sudden disappearance from the streets of Cairo, leaving what she described as a "security vacuum."
UN human rights chief: 300 reported dead in Egypt protests, Feb 1 2011

One person was reported to have been killed during yesterday's small protests in Iran. Nothing was reported about who died and under what circumstances that happened. I wonder if the person killed is the civilian who was heavily beaten up by the protesters simply because he disagreed with them.

News and views …

Claims the Financial Times:

Iranian security forces clashed with protesters as hundreds of thousands marched in Tehran on Monday in the biggest rally by the opposition Green Movement for more than a year.

Hmmm – "hundreds of thousands"?

A Tehran Bureau blog entry, a private endeavor, taken over by PBS after the 2009 election protests in Iran, has this anonymous account:

10:30 p.m. From a Tehran Bureau correspondent:
 It was amazing today. About 350,000 people showed up. …

Hmm again. After reviewing many video clips (here, here and here) and pictures of the event I find those numbers totally unbelievable. Crowds of a few hundred people and in one case maybe some single digit thousand are visible in the 30+ video clips I reviewed. Those people are mostly student age folks chanting in the streets and burning a few trash cans. There is no evidence of any bigger demonstration.

Cont. reading: Hot Air In Iran Protest Numbers

Raymond Davis is a U.S. government contractor who worked in Pakistan. On January 26 he gunned down and killed two people in Lahore under quite murky circumstances. He is currently in Pakistani custody. The U.S. is now claiming that he is protected under diplomatic status. But that claim seems to have evolved only after the killing. Davis arrived in Pakistan on a business visa and without diplomatic papers. In any case there is no diplomatic status protection for serious crimes.

The U.S. is pressing the Pakistani PPP-party government for the release of Davis. That isn't easily done for the Zardari government as the case happened and will be judged in the state of Punjab where the major opposition party rules.

In the current downsizing and rearrangement of the Pakistani cabinet the, until recently, foreign minister Qureshi was supposed to stay on but yesterday he was ousted over the case:

Mr Qureshi, according to sources, was angered by President Zardari’s move to stop him from issuing any statement as foreign minister on the issue of Davis and assign the task to Interior Minister Rehman Malik.
…
Mr Qureshi reportedly stated that “the kind of blanket immunity Washington is pressing for Davis is not endorsed by the official record of the foreign ministry”.

The murky circumstances of the crime itself and the political shenanigans to get Davis release is already enough to make this case interesting.

But I suspect even more interesting behind this.

In 2010 119 U.S. drones strike hit in Pakistan, 13 of those in November and 12 in December. In the first three weeks of January 9 drone strikes occurred, the last one on January 23, three days before the murder in Lahore.

Since then – silence. The last three weeks there was no drone strike reported, not one.

So while there was an uninterrupted campaign of drone strikes on Pakistani ground every three days for several month, taking Mr. Davis off the street seems to have stopped it.

It may be that the U.S. stopped the strikes to prevent further diplomatic complications. But earlier rows between the Pakistani and U.S. government never stopped the drone campaign.

Another reason may well be that Mr. Davis is a critical component in the drone campaign and that without what he was doing, collecting targeting data from informants or whatever, the drone strikes can not continue.

It may also be that this correlation of events is not causal.

But to me it seems that keeping Davis off the streets has probably saved some Pakistani lives. Keeping him further off and inside a jail may probably save even more. That should be enough reason to press for his custody to continue.

Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.

It seems that people will stay in Tahrir until the next steps are done. Good.

via The Guardian, Reuters:

"People's Communique No. 1" demands the dissolution of the cabinet Mubarak appointed on Jan. 29 and the suspension of the parliament elected in a rigged poll late last year.
The reformists want a transitional five-member presidential council made up of four civilians and one military person.
The communique calls for the formation of a transitional government to prepare for an election to take place within nine months, and of a body to draft a new democratic constitution.
It demands freedom for the media and syndicates, which represent groups such as lawyers, doctors and engineers, and for the formation of political parties. Military and emergency courts must be scrapped, the communique says.

and this on a council the protest organizers are forming:

"The purpose of the Council of Trustees is to hold dialogue with the Higher Military Council and to carry the revolution forward through the transitional phase," said Khaled Abdel Qader Ouda, an academic.
"The council will have the authority to call for protests or call them off depending on how the situation develops," he added.
Ouda said the Council of Trustees would call for a mass rally next Friday to celebrate the success of the revolution.
The council would have about 20 members, including protest organisers, prominent individuals and leaders from across the political spectrum, he said.

Also: Good morning revolution: A to do list

I am optimistic now. The fear is broken, it will not come back anytime soon.

—

15:00 GMT – 17:00 Cairo

Nice tweet: "Everyone knew it was impossible. Then came along a fool who didn't know it, and he did it."

Reuters: PA announced that Presidential & Legislative elections will take place before September 2011

14:00 GMT – 16:00 Cairo

Cont. reading: The Day After The Revolution

Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.

Ending live coverage:

My sincere congrats to the people of Egypt – you have set an example for all of us. Thank you!

—

Obama speech: history taking place – Egypt people have spoken – not the end but a beginning – military has to assure credibly transition – clear pass to fair and free election – U.S. continue to be friend and partner – new opportunities – (the usual blah-blah-blah follows) [noticeable NO assuring hint to Israel]

Abu Mussa will leave as Arab League chairman

[15 hours of live blogging – I must be crazy]

20:00 GMT- 22:00 Cairo

Israel's days are numbered – good

AFP: "Hezbollah congratulates the great people of Egypt on this historic and honorable victory"

To keep in mind: you do not need a leader, nor be one – indeed having a leader, or being one, is dangerous for any movement – this movement survived because it had no leader

For what, exactly, does the U.S. spend $100 billion per year for its secret services when they didn't see this coming?

Alexandria live video – pure euphoria

Which dictatorship will be next?

People in Amman, Jordon, party – fireworks in Beirut

Hillary Leverett on AJE: now Obama will be at odds with the people of Egypt – he tried to orchestrate Suleiman into position 

19:00 GMT- 21:00 Cairo

Fire eater performing in Tahrir, people with flag dance around him

Guardian: On this day 32 years ago the Iranian revolution took place when the Shah's forces were overwhelmed

To keep in mind: demonstrations lead to celebrations

Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson El Erian – want full democratic system – army is committed to full democratic system

Supreme Council Communication No.3 via spokesman: – all aware of gravity of matter – will implement radical changes – seek guidance and assistance from god – deliberating about future – will later make statement – legitimacy comes from the people – thanks Mubarak for his work – salute all martyrs – (spokesman salutes perfectly)

Live video from Gaza – horns honking, Egyptian flags, party

Camera zoomed in on a man who held a white dove – he showed the dove to the camera and then released it – then gave thumbs up to camera

18:00 GMT- 20:00 Cairo

ElBaradei to BBC: "I think it is not going to just be Tantawi, but the whole military leadership. I also understand that they are going to reach out to all sections of Egyptian society. I hope it will want to share power with civilians through the transitional period. I hope we will have a presidential council, a government of national unity and have enough time – perhaps a year – to prepare for genuine and free elections." [Tantawi is "Mubarak's poodle", 75 years old, and hated by the real military]

Tanks get removed from Tahrir entrances

Swiss government freezes Mubarak assets in Switzerland

Fireworks over Tahrir

People in Tahrir carry some soldiers on their shoulders

ElBaradei: "Transitional constitution, some government from civilian and military side, one year to full democratic elections"

Via Fran in comments BBC: "Al-Arabiya reports that the Higher Military Council will sack the cabinet, suspend both houses of parliament and rule with the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, the country's highest judicial body. A statement is expected later on Friday."

AlJazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin (Egyptian with U.S passport) tweets:

Freeeeeeeedddooooommm!!!!!! #tahrir #jan25 #jan28

17:00 GMT- 19:00 Cairo

Cont. reading: Feb 11 – Live Coverage Of Protests in Egypt – HE IS GONE

Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.

Retired Army General: Clear error – wait for statement no.2 of military – Mubarak sick – fact may give power to military – president psychological ill – Mubarak/Suleiman burned, grave mistake committed – grave and dire – statement 2 of military will heal

The title of this post, "Step 1 Is Done", chosen hours ago, is wrong. Step 1 isn't done, it only seemed to be. It will happen, but now in a likely bloody way.

Presidential Guard, not regular military, deployed around state TV.

Suleiman is more stupid and distant to the people than Mubarak – I didn't think that to be possible – well …

This was political suicide by Mubarak and Suleiman and the military establishment.

Suleiman on State TV now: delegated by the president – to safeguard Egypt by president's request to help in this goal – laid down roadmap – door open for dialog: committed to peaceful transfer of power within constitution, – civilized dialog . all citizens make future pride – [blah blah] – realization of demand of youth – [blah blah] go back home, go back to my words, do not listen to satellite stations only listen to conscience, started work on relying of armored forces to preserve – [blah – blah]

Suleiman said to be on TV soon – will not matter anymore – he is gone, after more blood

I'd expect a quite bloody attack on the State TV building in Cairo tonight. This is heavily guarded by the military now. My guess: the military will be overwhelmed/change side – no matter what – if not today, than tomorrow.

AJE- Alexandria – crowd going quite crazy now – marching to military base now

Tomorrow will be bloody – the folks now are angry, really angry – expect a very, very violent Friday tomorrow – this was dumb, very, very dumb of Mubarak and of the armed forces to allow him to do such a speech

Wow – now there is real anger in Tahrir – that was a very, very stupid statement by Mubarak – where is that "Supreme Council" of the armed forces – this idiot will take you down too

Mubarak: "Speech from father to children, blood will not have gone down drain in vain, will not penalize, will on those who did bad, totally determined to fulfill demands, if legitimate, mistakes of government are natural, will punish those responsible, will not accept dictate from outside, will not run in elections, will stay until September with free elections, will keep oath, insure stability of society, peaceful transitions of power, continue to observe proper implementation, lay foot on right path of crisis – clear road – specific timetable, constitutional committee [his people], independent and transparent, unfortunate events, handed down orders for investigations, will change constitutions, para 76,77,93,189, annulment of others, propose at later state other changes, esp. election law, propose change of 179 of constitution if/when confidence restored, can not tolerate circumstances to continue, youth will be first victims of current problems, all have same problems, stability and peace of all, I defended homeland – [crowd in Tahrir is chanting loud against him] – never thought power – defining movement of history, put homeland above all, put power to vice-president [?]- no satellite state – unique Egypt spirit, lived for this nation, Egypt will live until I hand over banner, will not leave Egypt until burred.

Mubarak on TV now

Mubarak 40 minutes behind schedule to hold speech – Washington/Tel Aviv still negotiating "issues"?

Al Arabia: Mubarak to apologize to families of people killed, [some other superficial measures … still behind events]

Reuters: Mubarak to lift emergency law, stay President but move power to Suleiman

State TV reading out charges against former ministers: corruption,  corruption, corruption …[nothing about military corruption though]

From visuals: Tahrir packed as never – a million would probably be underestimated

We need to 'keep kicking their behinds': Mohamed ElBaradei speaks to FP

Reuters: Egypt (Dis-)Info Minister: Mubarak not to step down

Mubarak TV address supposed to start soon

20:00 GMT – 22:00 Cairo

[Jacky Rowland and Ayan Moyadin deserve highest journo prices – excellent deep analysis under extremest circumstances]

State TV now shows the pictures of the big demonstration in Tahrir just like AJE – 180 degree change

NYT's Kristof tweets: "I worry that the Egyptian army's plan may be to have a Mubarak-style govt without Mubarak. Am I too pessimistic?" [answer: No – but you are wrong saying that it is the Egyptian army's plan – it is the U.S.rael's plan]

From visual: Tahrir packed more than ever – reporter: all access roads totally filled

19:00 GMT – 21:00 Cairo

Reuters: Mubarak will announce constitutional procedures before handing over powers [manipulating thigs again so Suleiman or army council can completely take over?]

Mubarak speech expected at 20:00 GMT (in one hour)

AJE analyst Ayman: Thinks the Reuters statement is not realistic – doesn't reflect real military opinion

Reuters: "Egypt army will act if protesters do not accept transfer of power to Suleiman"

CNN Homepage has embedded Nile TV feed – an Egyptian state station(!) [couldn't get AJE feed?]

Live Obama speech in Michigan on Egypt: we are witnessing history unfolding – U.S. will continue to support orderly and genuine transition – [that seems to have been all – weird – so he doesn't know?]

AJE from Alexandria: about 1,000 people in front of main station – chanting – lots of military around the city, some police back – people dislike police very much

Al Hurra (U.S. paid arabic TV): "Mubarak will arrive in Dubai within hours"

Guy from stage: "Allah akbar" – crowd repeats LOUD

18:00 GMT – 20:00 Cairo

Cont. reading: Live Blogging Egypt: Step 1 Is Done

The Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit lives in an Orwellian world:

"When you have a president who is stepping down, you have one of two possibilities. The demonstrators and the opposition insisting that they compose a government unconstitutional. And then maybe the armed forces would feel compelled to intervene in a more drastic manner," he said. "Do we want the armed forces to assume the responsibility of stabilising the nation through imposing martial law, and army in the streets? The army is in defence of the borders of the country and the national security of the state. But for the army to rule, to step in, to put its friends on the scene, that would be a very dangerous possibility."

When I checked this about 2 minutes ago:

• Egypt was under an emergency law that is equal to a martial law
• The army was in the streets all over Cairo and other cities
• The whole government leadership was made up of army "friends", they are generals.

But I agree with Ahmed Aboul Gheit that having an emergency law, the army in the streets and generals as government leaders is indeed very dangerous and it should end.

I take today's rainbow over Tahrir Square, caught by Abul Einein, as a sign for that to happen.

huge version

Egypt's Vice President General Omar Suleiman talked of a "coup" that might happen if the protests go on. That is somewhat difficult to understand.

Since the protests started the military has already conducted what looks like a coup. The core of the military authoritarian regime asserted itself by sidelining Mubarak and throwing out all its civilian attachments. Mubarak's son and the civilian neoliberal oligarchs were kicked out of the government.

Mubarak, himself a "former" general, was shifted to the side and General Suleiman put up as vice-president. After Suleiman finished his oath to office, he saluted Mubarak, offically still his supreme commander, even though both were in civilian cloth. Another General was put up as Prime Minister. While many positions in the government changed, the Defense Minister, another General, was kept in place. The sham civilian parliament was not allowed to convene.

When the military came into the street, it was greeted friendly by the demonstrators. But when the Interior Ministers thugs are one side of the coin the military is just the other. As Kent State Professor Joshua Stacher wrote in Foreign Affairs two days ago:

With the protesters caught between regime-engineered violence and regime-manufactured safety, the cabinet generals remained firmly in control of the situation.
…
This latest adaptation of autocracy in the Arab world is more honest than its previous incarnations. Before the uprising in Egypt began, the military ruled from behind the curtain while elites, represented by public relations firms and buoyed by snappy slogans, initiated neoliberal economic policies throughout Egypt. In this latest rendering, with Suleiman at the helm, the state's objective of restoring a structure of rule by military managers is not even concealed. This sort of "orderly transition" in post-Mubarak Egypt is more likely to usher in a return to the repressive status quo than an era of widening popular participation.

With escalating protests, now accompanied by labor strikes, the last sentence's estimate may change.

The Egyptian military apparatus owns a lot of land, production assets and other economic valuables It has immense business interests:

Paul Sullivan, a National Defense University professor who has spent years in Egypt, says it is huge, probably accounting for 10% to 15% of Egypt's $210 billion economy.

The generals are unlikely to give those assets up. A real democratic transition, which would allow a new civilian government to control or take over the military businesses, is not in the Generals interests. They'd likely rather shoot some civilians over that.

Therein of course might lay the danger of the "coup" Suleiman warned of. There may be some Majors and Colonels who would not want to be part of a violent military crackdown on their brothers and sisters. But the regime still has an alternative to a military crackdown that migh incite a coup. It can reignite terror in the streets with the secret civil part of its rule, the Interior Ministry. After a few weeks of random mass night killings be snipers and "thugs" and the propagandizing the resulting fear, the soldier part of the regime could again be seen as savior, or simply as the less threatening alternative.

Suleiman alluded to that strategy:

He warned of chaos if the situation continued, speaking of "the dark bats of the night emerging to terrorise the people."

The release from prison of protest organizer Wael Ghonim and his very emotional interview (press the CC button for English subtitles) on private TV yesterday evening has given the revolution in Egypt new momentum.

There are signs now that the fire is reaching new parts of the society. Today professors of Cairo University marched from the university to Tahrir. Two hundred journalists from state media protested. A huge step for them to take. The semi-official daily Al-Ahram carried an editorial by its chief editor that was somewhat critical of Mubarak. Despite this being a normal working day several hundred thousands took to the streets in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, Assuan and other cities. Many of them for the first time.

Some protesters went to new places with a reported thousand in front (video) of the People's Assembly, the parliament building. There are new demands being made by the protester. The slogans chanted now call not only for Mubarak to step down, but for prosecution of him and his family. A group of lawyers have petitioned the attorney general to investigate Mubarak's family alleged wealth.

The regime is still in retreat. Yesterday it increased state sector pay by 15%. Today Suleiman, Israel's choice for following Mubarak, announced several new presidential decrees to implement some pseudo democratic changes to the constitution. He announced that no protester would be prosecuted. Of course no one is believing him.

At the same time secret security forces are still hard at work and pick people off the street. But as one guest at Aljazeera observed: "The fear changed camp." It is no longer the people that fear the state apparatus, now the state fears the people. The revolution can still be slowed down, but I believe no one and nothing can stop it now.

The recent events in Egypt show two entities which never fail to miss an opportunity.

The Muslim Brotherhood broke the momentum of the protester movement by joining into talks with Suleiman. Staying away would have kept up the pressure to get rid of Mubarak and his system. They earlier had announced that they would let ElBaradei do the negotiations. But he wasn't even invited to that meeting. The MB has now broken the coalition of protesters.

It even agreed on negotiating about constitutional changes. How stupid can one be? A revolution always trumps the existing constitution and writes its own, new one. That is its purpose. Thankfully ElBaradei is said to have some good folks working on that.

The Muslim Brothers probably listened to their old CIA handlers. Reading their history, have they ever managed something without screwing up?

The second entity that never fails to miss an opportunity is the United States. Instead of backing the protesters by taking away the aid from the military with a promise to reinstante it when Mubarak and his system is gone, they backed the old crony regime by sending Mubaraks own lobbyist, allegedly to tell him to leave, which the lobbyist of course did not do at all.

With ElBaradei ready to act as interim president, a liberal youth on the street and the regime at the border of collapse only a small push would have been needed to achieve real change of the system while at the same time assuring that it would be a secular and liberal one and the blood shed small. But the U.S. missed that chance. Years ago it missed a similar chance when it it supported the Shah up to his very end instead of his then secular opposition.

Mubarak and his system, which of course includes Suleiman, will fall. Raising the pay for public servants by 15%, scapegoating some functionaries and propaganda will not solve the deep problems Egypt has. The IMF has largely succeeded in destroying its economy. Egypt is now exporting strawberries to Europe – fine, but it now also has to import some 40% of the wheat it needs. This put the real basic needs of its in average dirt poor people into the hand of speculators. Such economic policies are deadly for any regime.

But when, not if, the current system in Egypt falls, it is now unlikely to come under rule that is friendly to the U.S., it will not be secular and less liberal than the crowd in Tahrir is looking. It will also be a more bloody event.