Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 03, 2011

Obama Administration Confirms "No Nukes" Iran NIE

The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate which stated that Iran does not have a military nuclear program has, to my best knowledge, never been publicly confirmed by the Obama administration. But two released diplomatic cables indicate that the NIE's conclusions are still considered to be correct.

In November 2007 a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate concluded (pdf):

• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.

In an embassy cables released by WikiLeaks the Obama administration confirms the NIE conclusion and states that Iran does not have any active military nuclear program. In another cable the Turkish Defense Minister states, undisputed by Secretary of Defense Gates, that there is no evidence at all for any Iranian military nuclear program.

A November 2009 cable with official talking points on U.S. missile defense policy states:

We continue to assess that Iran, at a minimum, is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran could choose at any time to restart its nuclear weapons program and, eventually, arm its missiles with nuclear warheads.

A February 2010 cable reports on a meeting between Secretary of Defense Gates and the Turkish Defense Minister Gonul:

Turning to Iran, Gonul cited the enrichment program and acknowledged that Ankara is "concerned about the Iranian threat," but said that the international community does not yet have evidence that there is a weapons program.

Posted by b on January 3, 2011 at 04:24 AM | Permalink

Comments

thanks b, excellent actually. it's pretty clear we're going to be assaulted by endless streams of hasbarist bullshit to bomb iran in the coming year. i really hope america's memory is not so shot they forget there's nothing new about any of this. "please, not again" from the economist wrt war w/iran w/ had this to say about palestine:

"It is time for the world to agree on a settlement and impose it on the feuding parties."

hell yes.

phil weiss has written a (really) good post about the lobby/goldberg's push for war w/iran Goldberg’s next war sure sounds a lot like his last one. i recommend.

Posted by: annie | Jan 3, 2011 12:28:44 PM | 1

given the near-certainty that israeli america is doomed, no matter what, because of peak oil...

it could be that zionists are deliberately being given enough rope to hang themselves... israel was such a bad idea in the first place, maybe there are factions who'd just as soon dispose of israel in a way that might be advantageous to... whom? ...big jews who realize israel was a bad idea? ...who realize that zionism is damaging jewishness? ...or maybe big goy capitalists, maybe oldtime americans who resent israel's interference in american politics?

but even if israelis are not deliberately being given the rope to hang themselves, they might still grab the rope and hang themselves, anyway.

meanwhile, it's strange how zionists seem to equate "survival of the jewish people" with survival of israel... and so mr dror says in the jewish forward that jews are supposed to abandon their morals in defense of israel, israel being the sum of jewish existence, according to mr dror...

abandoning morals in defense of israel, huh? ...interesting implications for the 9/11 incident, the lies about iraq's wmds and the lies about iran's nuke intentions.

the official version of the situation doesnt make any sense, so there must be something happening that we're not supposed to know about.

Posted by: flickervertigo | Jan 3, 2011 12:56:58 PM | 2

maybe there are factions who'd just as soon dispose of israel in a way that might be advantageous to... whom? ...big jews who realize israel was a bad idea? ...who realize that zionism is damaging jewishness?

ahhh, something tells me 'big jews' are not trying to dispose of israel.

Posted by: annie | Jan 3, 2011 1:01:06 PM | 3

"...ahhh, something tells me 'big jews' are not trying to dispose of israel."

you think bernake and the goldman sachs boys and the rest of the big money boys give a fig about israel?

Posted by: flickervertigo | Jan 3, 2011 1:06:15 PM | 4

the holocaust persecution myth is fraying around the edges, too... could be it needs a rehab.

from your article, annie...

"In World War II, the Jews had no power to stop Hitler from annihilating us. Six million were slaughtered. Today, 6 million Jews live in Israel, and someone is threatening them with annihilation."

could be the israelis are being set up... remember caroline glick's stories about iran/north korea nuke weapons cooperation? ...and the new york times story about our declining nuke forensic capabilities... so if there's a nuke terrorist attack, we'd have no way of figuring out where the bombs came from?

are we being set up for another false flag? ...is the target america or israel?

Posted by: flickervertigo | Jan 3, 2011 1:24:39 PM | 5

the basic problem remains: the official story doesnt make any sense.

but when you factor in peak oil, global warming, sea level rise, and the actions of the israelis and israeli americans, then you begin to recognize a pattern.

wasnt it good ol' doc aumann that said you can figure out what people know by how they act? ...does it take a nobel winner to figure that out?

"How might a person, firm or country who has extra information utilize the advantage?

How might an ignorant player infer information known to another player by observing that player’s past actions?

Should an informed player take advantage of the information for short-run gains, thereby risking to reveal his information to other players, or should he conceal the information in order to gain more in the future?"

Robert Aumann’s and Thomas Schelling’s Contributions to Game Theory

Posted by: flickervertigo | Jan 3, 2011 1:55:13 PM | 6

@flickervertigo #5:

so if there's a nuke terrorist attack, we'd have no way of figuring out where the bombs came from?

Well, we may not (I don't believe that BS, neither do you?), but I'm sure there are other interested parties with the capability to find out.

Posted by: Dr. Wellington Yueh | Jan 3, 2011 5:09:08 PM | 7

I just today discovered that you're back up, b. This is fantastic and I've sorely missed this blog as I'm sure everyone has. Thank you.

Posted by: Mary | Jan 3, 2011 6:31:25 PM | 8

to Dr. Wellington Yueh...

no, i dont believe that our nuke forensic capability has deteriorated, but the important thing is to establish a legend that the main media can jump on and pound to death immediately after an incident... just like they did with bin laden and 9/11.

once the western media gets the bit in its teeth... well, you saw what happened with 9/11, even though the FBI finally admitted they had no evidence against bin laden.

so that's what caroline glick and the new york times are doing: cueing the main media, just in case something "just happens to happen" that can be used as a pretext to complete the "axis of evil" trifecta... iraq, iran and north korea.

kinda makes you wonder how long this operation was planned before bush's speech of January 29, 2002, when the term "axis of evil" surfaced and the members were named....

i guess they could be playing it mostly by ear, but the 9/11 caper --PNAC's "new pearl harbor"-- worked so well, so far... and this legend-establishing exercise for blaming iran and north korea for a nuke attack in advance falls into the pattern...

i dont know... guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Posted by: flickervertigo | Jan 3, 2011 7:47:08 PM | 9

of course, once you've abandoned your morals, anything is possible.

Posted by: flickervertigo | Jan 3, 2011 7:51:24 PM | 10

Aloha ya'll...!

I've just jotted down a new post...

The Persian ‘Magical Mystery Tour’ and ‘the Phantom Menace’…

PJ Crowley still can't give Matt Lee or anybody else a straight answer...

Posted by: CTuttle | Jan 5, 2011 12:39:31 AM | 11

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