Jan 30 – Live Coverage Of Protests In Egypt

January 30, 2011

Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.

End of day comment:

Revolutions take weeks, not days. We will likely see a violent crackdown in the next days, possibly tomorrow.

The U.S. closed its embassy. The U.S. and other countries are is still evacuating their nationals. They expect more strife.

They likely know that a major violent crackdown is coming. With the interior security forces coming back tonight/tomorrow, that is a real possibility. There were less people in the street today than yesterday. There will be less tomorrow, giving a chance for a crackdown. That would not be the end but a significant setback. Maybe that an expected rumored crackdown is also the reason why ElBaradei came out tonight – too early, unprepared and rushed.

ElBaradei seems to have been more on U.S. TV today than on Arabic TV. His strategy is to have the U.S abandon Mubarak. He is thinking too U.S. centric. U.S. endorsement will not come and even if it would, it would not be enough. (Thanks to r'giap a fitting translation of Hillary Clinton speaking: What They really Mean)

The people have to take Mubarak down. If ElBaradei really wants to part of that -he currently isn't- he has to be with the people. Not just in a five minute unheard speech in Tahrir, but leading a big march. Endorsement from the Jewish financed Brookings' Indyk and the Brookings expert from Doha who is on Al Jazeera English all day has likely zero to negative meaning on the street.

The opposition should call for big demonstration after next Friday's prayer and repeat such demonstrations every week until the regime falls.

Revolutions take weeks, not days.

—live blogging from today below in time reverse order—

One correspondent on phone says five trucks of interior security forces seen in one suburb neighborhood.

Reuters has some bits from ElBaradei:

"I bow to the people of Egypt in respect. I ask of you patience, change is coming in the next few days," he said.
"You have taken back your rights and what we have begun cannot go back," he said as crowds chanted "Down with Mubarak."
"We have one main demand — the end of the regime and the beginning of a new stage, a new Egypt."

[Question: Isn't an Indyk endorsement a kiss of death?]

Sultan Al Qassemi (journo from The National) tweets:

BBC Arabic: Martin Indyk former US Ambassador to Israel & Brookings VP says that it seems the US government is leaning to @ElBaradei

[Question: Is ElBaradei a U.S. supported selection?]

18:00 GMT – 20:00 Cairo

AJ live feed from Tahrir – loud shouting – then loud whistling – loud shouting of some slogan again – something is happening there (video shows only the center of the place while most of the people are, like yesterday, in the south east corner of the extended square)

[AJ is over-analyzing the short ElBaradei speech – saying he is now a leader – he is not – he has yet to reach the people]

Some more short video of ElBaradei speaking – he was pressed with (foreign) media folks – hardly a protester who could have heard him

[few people could have heard ElBaradei – he needs to do something much bigger – call for a central big demonstration in daytime – arrange for a stage etc – make it a confrontation point – something more people can hear – more media can cover]

AJ has a short video (not live) of ElBaradei using a megaphone and speaking in Tahrir

Reuters cites security sources in Egypt: Police will be back on the streets tomorrow

[Judging just from the pictures Al Arabia TV coverage is somewhat similar to AlJazeera's. Has some of the same pictures. Shows more looting though. This revolution is then widely seen all over all Arab countries. We can expect more regimes to fall after this.]

AJ has (not live) video of Baradei in Tahrir now – looks tightliped – waiting for people to organise something so he can speak and be heared - lots of people around – Egyptian flags

17:00 GMT – 19:00 Cairo

Live video shows night prayer in Tahrir

Al Arabia is also covering (in Arabic) and has pictures from Tahrir Square: netstream AlArabia 2 – more Arabic TV here

[Isn't the army the government – all three on top are military folks – how does on split the army from these?]

Cairo by phone – ElBaradei will make appeal for support to army

Baradei arrived at Tahrir Square

[via a tweet: BBC Arabic says 150,000+]

Cairo/Tahrir by phone – says crowd in Tahrir is increasing

[Not to forget: There are reports by BBC and others of big protests in many other major cities in Egypt. It's not only Tahrir and Cairo though that is the symbolic center.]

[Baradei – not sure how/if people will accept this. Anyway – I believe he would do a credible job (if he survives this) and seems to have no personal intend to become a dictator or longterm power figure.]

Suez by phone – Baradei on way to Tahrir square – has mandate from soem opposition groups including Muslim Brotherhood for national salvation government

16:00 GMT – 18:00 Cairo (two hours into official curfew)

AJ has a video report of a former Egyptian prisoner, a member of "Army of Islam", who says he yesterday fled the prison together with over 1200 other prisoners – used a tunnel to come to Gaza

Live Tahrir square – dusk prayer – about a fifth of the people take part

A column of M1 tanks now said to be near Tahrir square, water cannons moved near

ElBaradei on CNN, explains why Muslim Brotherhood is not what U.S. people think and why it has to be included – Mubarak must step down today – will serve the people if asked – will try to make agreement with military

Egypt state TV shows Nile bridges – low traffic, few people on them

[We had so far not seen any M1 tanks, only older M60 – new more elite units on their way?]

Latest video (not live) shows a column of at least six M1 tanks (modern, US design, license build in Egypt) – fighter jets passing (not VERY low, just low – 500 meters) – a helicopter (Russion MI-17(?))

Cairo/Tahrir by phone – two military vehicle pulled back – crowd cheered

15:00 GMT – 17:00 Cairo

Alexandria by phone – tens of thousands in the city center – chanting want President hung – 70 dead in Alexandria – heard some gunfire in the last minutes – not sure what that was – saw wide shop looting this morning – neighborhood patrols try to hunt looters down looters

Guardian (tanks to Lex in comments):

Sensational political developments in Cairo, with reports that five opposition movements, including the key Muslim Brotherhood, have mandated Mohammed ElBaradei to negotiate over the formation of a temporary "national salvation government."

[fighter jet overflights might have been protection for President helo flight?]

[alltogether crowd in the street and square seems quite less than yesterday]

Cairo/Tahrir Square by phone – last helicopter flying low over Tahrir was from President's fleet with presidential seal marking (video now shows helo low passing over square (50-100 meters) – not military)

Crowd in Tahrir has not grown in the last half hour

State TV – curfew in all Egypt in place

Latest video (not live) shows protesters passing a few soldiers at a road block who try to hold them up by head – civilians regulating traffic – three M60 tanks moving pretty fast along a road

Sultan Al Qassemi of The National tweets

BREAKING: Hilary Clinton on CNN "Mubarak has not met the demands of the Egyptian people & we want a peaceful transfer of power"

No more jet overflights in the last five minutes

U.S. changing tact? Via Reuters: "Clinton says U.S. wants an "orderly transition" in Egypt so there is not a void in governance: Fox interview" and "Hillary Clinton says U.S. wants to see 'free and fair elections' in Egypt as Washington has urged for decades: NBC interview"

Helo in video feed flying low and slow over Tahrir

Cairo by phone – (fighter jet noise – a siren in the background) – while walking from hotel stopped by security forces not army – police back? – saw more military too

Egypt state TV shows the army chief visiting troops on the ground motivating soldiers – in the background were civilians pointing to the sky

AJ has another new live cam view – skyline type – seems to be from the Hilton towards South over the National Museum and towards Tahrir Square – no fighter planes visible in direct overfly but I saw a helicopter passing by on it some minutes ago

14:00 GMT – 16:00 Cairo

[Showdown time?]

Reports of additional military trucks on the way to Tahrir Square

Live feed from crowd in Tahrir has shouting increasing after jet overflights

[Trying to intimidate? Too late now.]

Fighter jets flying low over Tahrir Square multiple times

Intelligence Minister and Defense Minister just entered state TV building – will probably make an announcement

["a committee of concerned citizens" for a MB gang rushing a jail … hmmm – pretty editorial]

AJ talks to some Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson issam Illarian – who had been in jail and was freed by protesters – interviewer: "We understand you have been released by a committee of concerned citizens, …" – MB wandts end of emergency state (in place for years) and dissolution of parliament

Egypt state TV announcers and guests call for not watching AJ

Activist in Alexandria by phone – army everywhere – some normal thieves looting, some looters are secret police

Activist in Cairo/Tahrir by phone – spoke to army officer – said had orders to shoot on protesters yesterday but did not do it – (helicopter noise) – believes that soldiers will not fire

Some people in Tahrir Square praying – a fifth of the crowd maybe – crowd now growing quite fast

Alexandria – large funerals held – tuned into large protests – various looting in shops etc – have their own security now – provincial building burned down – army tries to enforce law and order – checkpoints – ID-checks – curfew announced for 3pm (i.e. 15 minutes ago)

Cairo via phone – people discussing a lot – peaceful, but no longer celebratory with soldiers – rumors about old Minister of Interior arrested – unconfirmed – no new cabinet named yet

AJ stopped to announce the names of the correspondents it talks to in Egypt

AJ again with live pictures of Tahrir Square – crowd seems to further grow

13:00 GMT – 15:00 Cairo

Sultan Al Qassemi of The National tweets (newest on top):

ANOTHER EXCLUSIVE: Very reliable source from Egypt: Habib Al Adly authorized snipers yesterday to shoot at protesters. (NOT in the news yet)

EXCLUSIVE: Very reliable source from Egypt: Habib Al Adly was arrested for opening the doors to all jail cells yesterday so chaos ensues.

BREAKING Al Hurra: Egyptian Army issues statement that is has arrested Interior Minister Habib Al Adly & NDP thug Ahmad Ezz (AMAZING!)

Video on AJ is live feed of Tahrir square – thousands milling around, no cars, no military

Suez by phone – demonstrations in main street increasing – army not interfering – strike in factories in Suez – someone is making propaganda against AJ – saw a banner that said "don't talk to AJ, they are lying"

AJ says senior retired judge came out in support of people

Issandr El Amrani blogs from Cairo: Manipulation

There is a discourse of army vs. police that is emerging. I don't fully buy it — the police was pulled out to create this situation of chaos, and it's very probable that agent provocateurs are operating among the looters, although of course there is also real criminal gangs and neighborhoods toughs operating too.

For me, Omar Suleiman being appointed VP means that he's in charge. This means the old regime is trying to salvage the situation. Chafiq's appointment as PM also confirms a military in charge. These people are part of the way Egypt was run for decades and are responsible for the current situation. I suspect more and more people, especially among the activists, are realizing this.
…
The situation is obviously very confusing at the moment. All I can say is that I have a hard time believing that Mubarak is still in charge, and that the hard core of the regime is using extreme means to salvage its position.

Cairo – Tahrir Square via phone – (video show more people there – several thousands) – reporter says people in lines praying – military helicopters overhead – state TV shows Mubarak meeting military commanders (Mubarak and Suleiman stonefaced) – protesters seem determined

Cairo via phone – helicopters in the air – intelligence security came to AJ bureau and told them to shut down – "stop filming or we take camera"

Report – Ministery of Interior has been evacuated after gunfights

[but Egypt is a military dictatorship]

AJ has some Arabic Brookings fellow – someone will have to back down – possibly cracks in the military

12:00 GMT – 14:00 Cairo

via Twitter – civil cloth security forces shut down AJ bureau in Cairo

via Twitter – AJ crew leaving Suez – too dangerous – direct threats – thugs?

Cairo – Tahrir Square by phone – several thousands protester there – a fire truck trying to drive into the Square – was blocked by protesters as the protesters assumed it would be used as water cannon to push them out – military near by then fired into the air to disperse protesters from fire truck – then ordered the fire truck out – when military fired into air, people did not flee but ran towards the firing

Suez by phone – military officers says will not fire on people – people securing their streets – Egypt state TV shows five arrested looters

Nothing about AJ closure in Cairo on AJ English TV so far

Video of some civil protection groups from last night – have pistols(!) and sticks, Molotow cocktails, want Mubarak gone

NYT has a map with crucial locations in Cairo – includes Oct 6 bridge, Tahrir Square etc.

AJ still has live pictures from AJ Cairo office looking over Oct 6 bridge

11:00 GMT – 13:00 Cairo

Ayman Mohyeldin – AJ correspondent in Cairo on twitter:

Al Jazeera Arabic and Al Jazeera English have just been taken off air in #Egypt (via phone)

Antiquities boss Zahi Hawass on phone – "criminals" broke into national museum – nothing stolen – now army is protecting the museum

AJ – death toll last 48 hours at least 150

Cairo activist on phone – army has closed all traffic to Tahrir Square but lets people through

U.S. and Turkey have send planes to ferry back their tourists currently in Egypt – seems they expect this to go on

Alexandria live view – looks calm, relative light traffic – but reporter says protests in some areas – no buisiness as usual – shops staying close despite this being a business day – people are stocking up – gas stations with long lines

Expert on AJ – Thinking of the army is that its task is protecting the nation, not the system – big difference

[question is who would enforce AJ closing – if AJ is smart they will ask the people for protection]

Evan Hill from Cairo via twitter:

State TV announces Al Jazeera's broadcasting license and press cards are being revoked. Our bureau is packing up. #jan25

AJ studio expert/analyst Hesham ? – believes police retreat is government tactics to target peoples security – it is still to be seen if the army is helping the people or just the system

Egyptian blogger Wael Abbas by phone from Cairo – plans for more protests at Tahrir Square today – some looting incidence are created – some arrested looters had secret security IDs

Alexandria by phone – protests in three neighborhoods now – against Mubarak and Suleiman – military searching some cars, checking identities – found weapons within some cars – tap water is not running in some neighborhoods – military not stopping protesters, only looting – ambulances have been used by looters as disguise to enter neighborhoods – military now checking ambulances

Cairo – a tank with "no Mubarak" sprayed on it – no police on the street at all

Cairo – Oct.6-bridge view – relative light car traffic – some groups of protesters have put up slogans – all major roads have military on it – one roadblock on Oct.6 bridge shows soldiers with helmets and visor and assault rifles ready on hand – less relaxed than yesterday

10:00 GMT – 12:00 Cairo

NYT's take of Suleiman: Choice Likely to Please the Military, Not the Crowds – I would add "And Please Washington", The piece says this a complete military takeover. But Egypt already was a military dictatorship, so that is really no change at all of the system.

[a bit exaggerated in my view – things are still in a balance and the people have not won yet]

AJ studio expert/analyst – calls this a revolution – people will have to decide now – "Mind quake" of the people happened – capability of the people have been build – dictatorship has shown weakness – expects change

Cairo – heavy military presense around state TV and Information Ministery – military setting up more roadblocks in Cairo – U.S. and British embassies cordoned off by military – banks, stock exchange expected to stay closed today

Israel – reporter by video – no reaction from Israel to Egypt military being in the Sinai

Suez – reporter by phone – no protests yet today – security a big problem – reporters were mobed – military in the street but mostly protecting installation – military says it does not have the numbers to control all crime – according to eyewitnesses, looters seem to be known security forces goons - people formed watch groups for their neighborhoods

AJ says – likely more demonstrations today – army increased presense – looting problems

9:00 GMT – 11:00 Cairo

AJ Cairo – sources in Sharm El Sheik, a tourist town in Sinai, say military in the street. Under Camp David accords there is no military allowed in Sinai. There have been rumors that Mubarak is in Sharm El Sheik.

Reports of some prisons stormed by the people and of freed prisoners

8:00 GMT – 10:00 Cairo

Posted by b on January 30, 2011 at 08:15 UTC | Permalink

Comments

We’re listening, B, invaluable

Posted by: euclidcreek | Jan 30 2011 8:19 utc | 1

Thanks, b
Mubarak’s Israeli-created Internet spyware

Posted by: Biklett | Jan 30 2011 9:10 utc | 2

thanks b

Posted by: annie | Jan 30 2011 9:15 utc | 3

Al Jazeera sends a feature about death penalty in Singapure, from its live blog:

Al Jazeera’s correspondent Dan Nolan and web producer Evan Hill say Egyptian state television report that Egyptian authorities have ordered the Al Jazeera Arabic offices in Cairo closed and have suspended its correspondents’ accreditations.
“The team watched the announcement go out live on Nile TV. They said … broadcasting license and press credentials are being revoked,” Hill reported from Cairo.

Posted by: Lex | Jan 30 2011 10:01 utc | 4

Any attempt to gain an understanding of the events in Egypt from outside the country is fraught and essentially guesswork filtered through the observer’s particular beliefs and prejudices.
Two days ago some level of understanding may have been possible but that is no longer the case, because the media has developed a set of constant talking points.
Demonstrators are anarchists at best looters at worst and every event is now regarded as an offshoot of that meme, whether you are watching al Jazeera, or reading the NYT.
The suspension of internet services will have to end in about 20 hours maybe 30 hours. After that those few Egyptians who have gainful employment in Egypt’s ‘new economy’such as working at Vodafone’s international help desk will join the protestors because they will be out of work.
Worst of all for Mubarek, he will begin to lose international allies.
Vodafone helpdesk for most of the English language pacific rim is located in Egypt.
Diminished corporate workloads over the weekend have allowed this area to be serviced by other service centres,but if the internet is still down by Monday noon Cairo time Mubarak will be put under pressure from his cronies in England.
On the other hand the claims by Vodafone and other mobile providers that they had no choice but to acquiesce to Mubarek’s demand that mobile services be shut over the weekend should be taken with a pinch of salt.
These corporations are in Egypt because it is a very low wage economy, albeit one with a substantial percentage of educated English language speakers. Cairo help desk staff come cheaper and with fewer overheads than Mumbai service centre workers. The communications and IT companies who pulled the plugs on Friday have a vested interest in keeping Mubarek in power, and it would be naïve to imagine they offered any real resistance to Mubarek’s demands.
As for the Telegraph story, it may be that story is partially true, in that the USIS offered a couple of places in one of their ‘free trips’ to the US to some Egyptian facebook activists. The US spends a great deal of money giving a wide range of young people from around the world who they believe might end up in positions of influence, trips to the US.
Some take the bait and become traitors to their own country by supplying US officials with information, others don’t, but even they aren’t a complete waste of time because during events such as Egypt’s current people’s uprising, those who took the silver can be threatened with exposure by the US. Some will be corrupted because they fear the ignominy of exposure; others will refuse, and be exposed as willing recipients of US largesse, then have their credibility brought into question by the rest of the movement.
This was the purpose of the Telegraph story. A warning shot before the extortion. The Telegraph is sufficiently obscure that few people in Egypt outside of the netheads it was aimed at will notice it. By now ‘the movement’ will be rife with speculation. “Is it correct?” “ Who could it be?”
Mubarek is likely to have freed more convicts than demonstrators have. He needs chaos in the streets to submerge any organised protest.

Posted by: UreKismet | Jan 30 2011 10:02 utc | 5

It seems it will start to become serious from now on. Al Jazeera Live updates says that the channel has been banned from reporting, license and reporters accreditations revoked.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 10:07 utc | 6

No mentioning of the reported government shutdown on Al Jazeera live yet (wonder if they will go offline “live”), AJ blogs are down atm.
Aggregated twitter stream from AJ reporters in Egypt: http://twitter.com/ajenglish/egyptprotests

Posted by: Lex | Jan 30 2011 10:52 utc | 7

The Live Blog had been down for a few minutes but now is posting about the banning of Al Jazeera:
11:40 am: Al Jazeera issues a statement denouncing the closure of its bureau in Cairo.
“The Al Jazeera Network strongly denounces and condemns the closure of its bureau in Cairo by the Egyptian government. The Network received notification from the Egyptian authorities this morning.
Al Jazeera has received widespread global acclaim for their coverage on the ground across the length and breadth of Egypt.
An Al Jazeera spokesman said that they would continue their strong coverage regardless:
“Al Jazeera sees this as an act designed to stifle and repress the freedom of reporting by the network and its journalists. In this time of deep turmoil and unrest in Egyptian society it is imperative that voices from all sides be heard; the closing of our bureau by the Egyptian government is aimed at censoring and silencing the voices of the Egyptian people.
“Al Jazeera assures its audiences in Egypt and across the world that it will continue its in-depth and comprehensive reporting on the events unfolding in Egypt. Al Jazeera journalists have brought unparalleled reporting from the ground from across Egypt in the face of great danger and extraordinary circumstances. Al Jazeera Network is appalled at this latest attack by the Egyptian regime to strike at its freedom to report independently on the unprecedented events in Egypt.”

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 11:00 utc | 8

That square is filling up quickly!
/Old picture, but kind of iconic:
http://twitpic.com/3u6gvc/full

Posted by: Lex | Jan 30 2011 13:28 utc | 9

The guardian reports MB now joined in with the other opposition groups to endorse ElBaradei as leader for a transitional government:

[…]five opposition movements, including the key Muslim Brotherhood, have mandated Mohammed ElBaradei to negotiate over the formation of a temporary “national salvation government.”

Posted by: Lex | Jan 30 2011 14:43 utc | 10

b, thx for all the updates, work.
El Baradei is educated, urbane, polished, sensible, a great one for compromise, and a good negotiator. Per his stints as director of the IEAE. (The US tried to get him ousted but failed as he had tremendous support from everyone, incl. China and Russia. A first! Bolton had to go hide in a dark hole..) Of course ‘his’ reports on Iraqi WMD were ignored by the PTB and US media. As were his statements about Iran. The subsequent director was Japanese, name I don’t recall – which shows that El Baradei has exceptional stature and garners much respect.
But…but.. El Baradei is an ‘international’, he lives in Vienna, he is part of the World Power circuit (albeit in a way no longer and in a salaried position only for most of the time), he is an expat! Is this the kind of person that the Egyptians would want in charge of ‘transition’ or as ‘in some top role’? Do the Egyptians even know him? He has not, over the years, been in any way vocal about opposing Mubarak or any ‘dictatorship’ for that matter, which was perfectly proper and correct as the head of the IEAE – he had to work with the situation as it was and concentrate on ‘his’ agenda, nuclear non-proliferation, proper oversight, etc.
Well power vacuums lead to all kinds of strange situations.

Posted by: Noirette | Jan 30 2011 15:55 utc | 11

My feelings on El Baradei are mixed. I agree that he wasn’t just a pawn of the western powers on his tenure as director of the IAEA. But still in this world you end being suspicious of everyone and everything. He clearly lacks clout on Egypt. However he may get some influence with his support for the protest. In a sense, if this isn’t really just a cumbersome ploy and he knows he is safe, he is risking detention or even his life while he could just be making pronouncements safe from his home at Vienna (which is quite usual for ‘opposition’ figures stirring people for their profit). For all what we know he could be just an ‘illuminated’ technocrat with a nationalistic vision for his country.
The Egypt regime seems like has been trying to ignore him since he started trying to become a candidate. It has been more vocal on their opposition to the MB.
So basically I will wait and see how the events unfold and won’t make a judgment on him for now.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 16:49 utc | 12

guardian liveticker also has a reporter close to the ground:
“ElBaradei is preparing to address the crowd in Tahrir Square and has been handed a megaphone, Jack Shenker reports.
“ElBaradei stared out at the crowd with a half smile on his face. There were waves of excitement and optimism as he arrived. But but a notable number chanted anti-ElBaradei slogans, asking ‘how can you steal our revolution now?'”, Jack told us in another phone update.”

Posted by: Lex | Jan 30 2011 17:06 utc | 13

Yes, the main drawback is that he is a complete outsider for most Egyptian. He may have a bit more influence with the high and middle classes. The MB is supporting him now likely to give a secular and moderate face and present a palatable interlocutor for the western powers.
He looks a bit unlikely as a kind of third line of defense for the powers. In fact in some sense he may be bad news for them, if not under control, because it would make more difficult to paint any change as purely islamist driven.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 17:18 utc | 14

given a j treatment of latin america – it seems to forget that those who brought change there in recent decades were the people themselves or leaders brought up by the people – comrade chavez is in essence a creation of the venezuelan people, as morales is of the bolivian people – that is not to downplay the decisive role they have played but history has told us quite clearly it was mass movements tired of imperialism & the economies their chicago school pals had created
the people & the people alone are the central factor – sadr understands this, it was the failure of the green movement in iran to involve the masses that was its essential failure – there was never any possibility of a general strike for example
anyone with ears to hear & eyes to see & a mind to analyze can see – the soi disant ‘leaders’ including the muslim brotherhood are being led by the masses & not the other way

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 30 2011 17:19 utc | 15

what they really mean

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 30 2011 17:22 utc | 16

i fear this regroupement of security forces a frightening(though not unexpected)development
surely they are not there to defend the people but to attack them

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 30 2011 18:10 utc | 17

AngryArab doesn’t like Al Baradei and confirms the impression he is being pushed by Al Jazeera.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 18:23 utc | 18

BBC Arabic: Martin Indyk former US Ambassador to Israel & Brookings VP says that it seems the US government is leaning to @ElBaradei
[Question: Is ElBaradei a U.S. supported selection?]
here’s my hunch b. the US wants to appear ‘in the groove’ and part of this movement. first yesterday i encounter this UKtelegraph link claiming state department initiated regime change w/egypt’s democracy groups last month as witnessed by an alledged wikileak. but hey, that alleged wikileak was never published last mointh as far as i can see. you know the US wants the suliman figure but egypts not that stupid. so my guess is they are going to back and be supportive of any non MB option and they will do it w/one voice.
but that is just my hunch.

Posted by: annie | Jan 30 2011 18:24 utc | 19

Clearly El Baradei would be a more palatable alternative than some unknown anti-western figure for the US. But I doubt it has been their primary alternative for replacing Mubarak from the start.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 18:28 utc | 20

whatever happens to Elbaradei, I have to say he has intestinal fortitude. to mix with the crowd in the middle of the square in Cairo after the curfew has been put into effect takes a bit of courage. he could easily meet the same end as the Thai general in Bangkok who was laid down by an army sniper.
I suppose there is a desperate search going on right now for a suitable person to nominally lead Egypt. it seems that Mubarak can no longer come back as he has lost face and that is pretty important I think. so what to do? the current state of anarchy can not continue forever.
PressTV had a banner saying Clinton was calling for democracy in Egypt. that is quite a development even if it does come from someone with zero credibility…perhaps even less than her esteemed predecessor kindasleezy Rice. Is Israel and the US ready for Egyptian democracy? doesn’t seem likely after the way things went in Palestine.
aren’t there any Egyptian billionaires wanting to have a go at politics? seems to be a favorite sport these days of the incredibly rich.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jan 30 2011 18:37 utc | 21

Two photo albums about the revolts. You can see in the second a lot of army people and protesters interacting. I think it’s hard to. But all of them seem be armed with old or lousy equipment, not just the M60 and M113s, but rusty old AK47s. Could they be conscripts or reserve units? Are the more elite units in the Egypt army professional soldiers or conscripts? And were would their loyalty be?
The Egypt Protests
The Egypt Protests 2

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 18:43 utc | 22

Some of those soldiers seem to wear a red band on the arm.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 18:45 utc | 23

oh, about the nasty comments over at SST directed at b.
I guess you are on your way to becoming a personality.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
to be called “foxtrotting deranged” by the mouth breathing fascist over there is amusing. but I guess you should have been more grateful to your occupiers and done a bit more stepping and fetching.
for lang to think he is anything other than an imperialist is quite astounding. I do wonder how he defines imperialism….must be something that others do.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jan 30 2011 18:50 utc | 24

“State TV announces Al Jazeera’s broadcasting license and press cards are being revoked. Our bureau is packing up. #jan25”
Aljazeera causing trouble vs State TV

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jan 30 2011 19:10 utc | 25

one of post modernism’s poisonous barbs was the dictum that the people were moribund
to witness, in sickness & age, these wondrous moments of people determining their own history is magnificent
& they are magnificent in their bravery, in their optimism, in their toughness – if people can remember the moments before the paty of hugo chavez arrived in venezuela – there were similar scenes, of a people having had enough, of them preparing to fight to the death because living was worse – of course today in egypt there is a different ampleur but it is of the same color – of the masses making it known that they were at the end of something & at the beginning of something new.
mostly the end of fear – it is impossible to be anything other than humble before that

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 30 2011 19:13 utc | 26

Al Jazeera mocking the NPD speaker about the lack of demonstrations for the regime (that’s one of the main differences with Iran).

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 30 2011 19:15 utc | 27

The violent crackdown is here. The Muslim Brotherhood has confirmed that the army has received orders to shoot protesters.
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=25701
Several have died by sniper fire already. The US is often a good source of reliable snipers.

Posted by: JohnH | Jan 30 2011 19:57 utc | 28

Just in case the link posted right above by JohnH escapes notice, or wasn’t posted before, it is the English Site of the Muslim Brotherhood, and it’s really worth a look.
http://www.ikhwanweb.com

Posted by: Noirette | Jan 30 2011 22:07 utc | 29

the people have opened their mouths and spoken nothing will now silence them..they will stand shoulder to shoulder

Posted by: noiseannoys | Jan 30 2011 22:20 utc | 30

Tariq Ramadan on
Tunisia.
Tariq is a very political animal, very aware of his role, position – Swiss branch descendant of the Muslim Brotherhood – attuned to various currents, usually very cautious and mainstream, out for number one. I’m not a fan or anything like that.
Excerpt:
The immediate American reaction to a rebellion that was as massive as it was unforeseen was startling; it was also well thought-out and cleverly handled.
President Barack Obama early on hailed the courage of the Tunisian people while the European countries, led by France, kept silent, as if confounded by the rapid pace of events. Clearly Washington was well ahead of the other “Tunisia-friendly” governments.
In fact, the American National Security Agency and the Joint Chiefs of Staff were able to manage the quickly evolving situation through the Tunisian Foreign Minister and the Commander in Chief of the country’s armed forces.
After several hours of turmoil and uncertainty, rapid action had become imperative.
Two key decisions were made:
To exile the dictator and to assign to the army the role of mediation and protection.
President Ben Ali stepped into a trap: the Foreign Minister persuaded him to leave the country “for a short time” the better to return once the situation was under control.
Ben Ali left Tunisia believing that France was his destination (which explains the early rumors about his destination). But his aircraft flew to Cyprus where the Americans negotiated the dictator’s terms of exile. He would be kept in isolation, movement and public declarations prohibited, totally neutralized.
The American government stole a march on France and Europe. In so doing, it ensured that it would reap the underlying political and geostrategic benefits whose impact will be crucial in future. The rapidity of Ben Ali’s carefully stage-managed exile made it possible..
more at:
http://www.tariqramadan.com/Tunisia-and-Africa-The-New.html

Posted by: Noirette | Jan 30 2011 23:21 utc | 31

AJ’s expulsion is very good news, because in this case no message will be far more powerful than the diluted half truths AJ was pushing out. Perhaps if Mubarek closed down communications before the protest got so large and widespread thiis technique may have worked, but now all he is doing is making it more difficult for his puppet masters to replace him with their selected marionette el-Baradei.
I took a quick look at the site which seems to be causing consternation for some here. This Lang chap is fortunately more bluster and ignorance than anything. For example he seems confused about Arabic, believing that because there is no letter ‘O’ in Arabic, Arabs don’t make an “O” sound, so he writes Mubarek’s first name as Husni rather than the more phonetically correct Hosni.
The “oo” sound in arabic is used of course, since it is one of the earliest noises for a human to make, but it is usually written as the long vowel و in moon or june.
The best comparison is with self taught wine connoisseurs who have never actually been to any of the ancient wine growing regions. Everything they know is from books or from conmen who claim to be experts, so they get some basics dreadfully wrong, since they have never been knee deep in the real world they claim to be expert on.
I wonder if that lang fellow imagines his posters are saluting him with one hand while typing with the other? It certainly seems that way.

Posted by: UreKismet | Jan 31 2011 1:54 utc | 32

@UreKismet – Lang has lived in the Middle East for quite some time and does know his Arabic – be careful to judge him too early

Posted by: b | Jan 31 2011 3:56 utc | 33

like all good soldiers, Pat Lang is primarily devoted to anthologizing and romanticizing the fraternal brotherhood of soldiers in war. He doesn’t really have politics, except a broad critique of military practice. He opposes COIN in Afghanistan, not because it it is morally reprehensible, but because the American public has no appetite for counterinsurgency and its considerable costs.
If there was ever a miserable creature produced by b’s imaginary American empire, pat lang would certainly be a leading candidate.
As we know, b has a stated fondness for military things, having served his time as a German soldier, who in his generation, thankfully was never asked to fight.
By Pat Lang killed gooks. And he feels betrayed, by those of us who understandably do not respect the sacrifice.

Posted by: slothrop | Jan 31 2011 4:48 utc | 34

If he has spent time in the Mid East his arabic comes out of books. It hasn’t come from talking with the locals – well not if he expected to be understood.

Posted by: UreKismet | Jan 31 2011 7:43 utc | 35

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