Lebanon – What Changed? – Moon of Alabama

January 25, 2011

Lebanon – What Changed?

Hizbullah has only 12 seats in the Lebanese parliament, out of some 128. It's Christian allies have more. To somehow say that the recent change in the Lebanese government was Hizbullah's deed is a bit comical. The decicive votes for the democratic government change came from Jumblatt's "progressive" party.

A billionaire Sunni "March 14" prime minister, who is friends with the Syrians and Saudis and was backed by Hizbullah parliament and cabinet members, has been replaced by a billionaire Sunni "March 14" prime minister, who is friends with the Syrians and Saudis and is backed by Hizbullah parliament and cabinet members,.

mini-Hariri was incompetent, I don't know if Mikati is any better. Elias at Qifa Nabqi says he is.

mini-Hariri boosted that he made Mikati prime minister in 2005. Five years later Nasrallah can claim the same.

Some Sunni Salafists are rioting in the streets.

Did anything really change in Lebanon?

Not in my view.

That of course that doesn't keep pathetic militarist propaganda folks like Exum from claiming that this somehow gives Israel a right to now attack all of Lebanon.

No change there either.

Posted by b on January 25, 2011 at 19:26 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Something changed. The new sunni prime minister doesn’t answer to direct orders from the US embassador. At least not for now or in an such obvious way.
In any case this seems more related with the lame attempts of using the phony Hariri Tribunal to discredit Hizbullah than about a real change on who governs Lebanon. The new government will immediatly disallow that farce and further attempts of trying to keep the moving blame operation (from Syria to Hizbullah) going will become even more pointless. Angry Arab is posting that even mini Hariri would have done the same but the price became too high and Hizbullah and his allies decided to kick him out.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 25 2011 21:29 utc | 1

The confessional system in Lebanon greatly underestimates the weight of the shia community, which is probably the largest in the country. The parliamentary majority, co-ordinated by Hezbollah, represents well over 60% of those who voted in last year’s elections (which, as I recollect, Hezbollah and its allies were said to have lost though getting more than 50% of the votes).
In essence the change is that the Lebanese government will no loonger be dominated by Israeli-US-Saudi pensioners and puppets. It is most unlikely that the next Defence Minister, for example, will emulate the last one (a Christian Phalangist) who passed on Hezbollah targets to the US Ambassador to forward to the Israeli Air Force.
As Hezbollah has revealed, throughout the past couple of years, the country is riddled with US and Israeli spy rings preparing the ground for aggression. The new government will aim not only to combat (rather than assist) these spies but to prosecute the perjurers who fuelled the Hariri enquiry.
These are real chamges. If they allow the natural political development of Lebanese democracy they will have an exemplary effect throughout the region. And they will put any future attacks from Israel out of the question.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 26 2011 4:10 utc | 2

It is propaganda but I kind of agree with Exum. The same way Ahmadinejad made it easier for Israel to lobby to contain Iran, Likudniks will now find it easier to lobby the west into accepting another Lebanon war.

Posted by: Anthony | Jan 26 2011 14:24 utc | 3

‘Another Lebanon War’ would not be without its consequences. That is what is different. For decades Israel and the US have been able to rely on very powerful Christian Fifth Columnists in Lebanon. And on Turkey’s support in the north/east.
Now not only can Turkey no longer be counted upon to allow Israel free rein but the Maronites are divided between patriots and supporters of ‘the west.’ The Sunni muslims are also split with the anti-Hariri/Saudi forces growing stronger. The pathetic ‘rentamob’ display put on yesterday in Beirut is a measure of Hariri’s isolation. All in all Lebanon is at the point where it is not impossible that its military will actually become capable of providing some defence.
Which raises an interesting dilemma for the US which is threatening to cease all aid to Lebanon. Already US military aid is derisory but it does give them some influence over the Lebanese generals. If Lebanon is forced to look elsewhere for military aid the US will lose its leverage.
Where else could it look? That is where Turkey’s position as the Arab world’s gateway to Central Asia and Russia comes in.
In my view if the Lebanese government can withstand the storm of subversion that will be aimed in its direction everything might be changed, especially as the number and size of the ‘fish’ Obama’s diplomats and soldiers have to fry increases daily.
The neo-cons were right: their policy was designed to transform the Middle East and it seems to be doing just that. If they had not been so arrogant and ignorant and so convinced of their total superiority they might have noticed that, controlling, as they did, in 2002, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey(not to mention Tunisia, the PA etc) the last thing they wanted was change and, worse yet, an eruption of popular empowerment. Because the only support the US/Israel gets in the Arab world comes from those who support power, when that power is challenged, Washington’s support dissolves.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 26 2011 17:18 utc | 4

Okay, I agree, things have changed. Funny how this comes in right now: US cracks down on Lebanese cocaine ring

WASHINGTON — The United States on Wednesday levied sanctions against an alleged Lebanese cocaine trafficking ring, with operations spanning Latin America, West Africa, Europe and the Middle East.
The group — led by Ayman Joumaa and including at least nine other people and 19 entities — was said to have laundered proceeds worth as much as $200 million per month.
US citizens and businesses will now be barred from trading with the group and any assets in the United States will be frozen.
“Today’s action will disrupt this network and obstruct their access to the international financial system,” said Adam Szubin, head of the Treasury’s Department of asset control.

Always the same tricks … next: Sanctions on Lebanon …

Posted by: b | Jan 26 2011 19:30 utc | 5

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