Jan 31 – Coverage Of Protests In Egypt

January 31, 2011

Overnight some protester stayed in the Tharir square in Cairo. Some sources say there were 10,000 people, other say 200.

The government is putting up concrete barrier on several roads in Cairo.

The opposition has called for a big demonstration tomorrow. That might be too early for the big push that is needed. People need rest and have time to discuss the developments. But keeping up the momentum is certainly also important.

The counter-revolution strategy of creating chaos and uncertainty, by pulling the police off the street and letting thugs and goons free to loot, was somewhat effective. Police is slowly coming back to the streets and is reported to be greated friendly.

There is a middle class in Egypt that has things to loose and will prefer stability over political freedom. The 1.2 million security personal are also likely to prefer a continuation of the regime. But the upper class is reportedly busy transferring its money out of the country. That may be a sign that the regime is crumbling.

I do not expect any big development today and will not do a running live coverage today. But revolutions are inherently unpredictable. If something comes up, I'll update accordingly.

What are your estimates and expectations on how the situation in Egypt will develop?

Posted by b on January 31, 2011 at 08:02 UTC | Permalink

Comments

The counter-revolution strategy of creating chaos and uncertainty, by pulling the police off the street and letting thugs and goons free to loot, was somewhat effective.
I don’t agree with that, b. I think it was a failure and quickly reversed. The police are to be back on the streets today. I think some – possibly the US – were too frightened of complete chaos.
Last night there was a flurry of activity on the message boards about pillaging of museums and archaeological sites, as happened in Iraq. Serious damage to the national museum in Cairo the previous night was avoided, but the museum in Memphis has been pillaged, and illegal digging has been reported. Black mark for everyone, including the US, if irreplaceable cultural heritage is destroyed, just to keep an old tyrant in power for a day or two more. Egyptian economy too.
Looks to me like a stand-off at the moment. Could be difficult to get Mubarak out of his palace. The one report I saw says he is in Sharm al-Sheikh, many hundreds of kilometres from Cairo. And incidentally surrounded by thousands of Western tourists (at least, the British tourists have not been asked to leave Sharm al-Sheikh, as they have from Cairo – how convenient!).

Posted by: alexno | Jan 31 2011 9:30 utc | 1

I think today is a very critical day, the police and the army will attempt to try and fine tune their new tactics regarding “kettling” the demonstraters in time for tomorrow million people march. This is going to cause some very high tensions, most of the current army personal appear very amateurish. With regards to Omar Suleiman many organisations like AJ,PressTv, BBC etc got it wrong. This man is seriously hated, he was put in as VP only because he has so much dirt on the Armed Forces Command that they will not deviate from support Mubarak. On a funny note, BBC managed to find some Mubarak supporters, 3 farmers deep in Upper Nile country, one farmer on his donkey saying “Mubarak good, Mubarak good”, I could swear the donkey look unimpressed.

Posted by: hans | Jan 31 2011 10:26 utc | 2

Another general for interior minister. Also he was head of the prison department. I would call that sending a very clear message to the protesters.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 31 2011 11:54 utc | 3

Mubarak is doing everything he can to wear down the protesters from releasing criminals, withdrawing police, and having his goons go looting.
His ace up his sleeve is time. AS Egypt’s economy grinds to a halt, food and supplies become scarce and become expensive and people begin to fight amongst each other. When disorder becomes great enough, he can order his army to kill everyone in order to “protect the country.”
He apparently has the full support of the west in this. The Israelis aren’t even hiding it. Starvation. They did in Gaza. They did it in Iraq. Why not try it in Egypt?
Probably, the west is pushing Mubarak’s generals to keep backing either him or Suleiman. Apparently they are listening, at least for now. Basically they are waiting for a time when it will be politically possible to order a mass killing. Egypt is too important in its own right to the powers that be, but their greatest fear of all is that all this spreads to Saudi Arabia.
In response, the million man march is very important. More important is that they have to somehow, take control of key facilities, such as state TV and interior ministry, and somehow get the internet back on. After the the big march, hopefully they can order protest shifts. Some can protest while others go back to work.
Key also is getting the army to break down. The top Generals are a lost cause. They are too close to the west. They need individual units inside the city to help them take the above named buildings.
That is just my guess. I hope I’m wrong. As an Egyptian-American, I’m moving between joy and excitement to fear and anguish and back again. Finding it hard to stay objective but I’m trying.

Posted by: Lysander | Jan 31 2011 14:12 utc | 4

Israel urges world to curb criticism of Egypt’s Mubarak
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-urges-world-to-curb-criticism-of-egypt-s-mubarak-1.340238

Posted by: Anthony | Jan 31 2011 15:05 utc | 5

That’s a true kiss of death.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 31 2011 15:48 utc | 6

The old army leadership won’t drop Mubarak if they haven’t already done so. Be it because they are one and the same and making any concession would mean them being kicked out too. Be it because of marching orders from Washington.
Not so sure about one star generals and middle level officers obeying orders to enforce a return to order.
A difference with Tunis seems to be that the army wasn’t so central to the dictatorship as it’s in Egypt. The Tunis army was small compared with the police forces and likely somewhat out of the upper levels of power.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 31 2011 16:19 utc | 7

lysander, i feel much the same – wounded tyrants with the help of imperialism care nothing for the people – or of a bloodbath – i am hoping the support for a general strike tomorrow is massive – the counter manifestations being organized by power tomorrow is an invitation to violence
before the beauty of a people’s liberation – the efforts to repress them are visibly ugly & brutal as if this was the beginning of the 20th century

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 31 2011 16:50 utc | 8

“israel called on the United States and a number of European countries over the weekend to curb their criticism of President Hosni Mubarak to preserve stability in the region.
Jerusalem seeks to convince its allies that it is in the West’s interest to maintain the stability of the Egyptian regime. The diplomatic measures came after statements in Western capitals implying that the United States and European Union supported Mubarak’s ouster.” haaretz
the state of israel reveals once again its hatred of the arabian people – & their passion for tyranny – since its inception – israel has sided with tyrants – apartheid south africa just one of it ugly allies

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 31 2011 17:19 utc | 9

Protesters give army deadline to choose sides

Tahrir Square protesters say they plan to march Friday to the presidential palace in Heliopolis unless the army makes its stance clear.
Youth-led groups issued a statement calling for all Egyptians to march on the palace, the People’s Assembly and the television building, in what they are calling the “Friday of Departure.”
They say the army must choose which side they are on: That of the people, or the regime.
“We the people and the youth of Egypt demand that our brothers in the national armed forces clearly define their stance by either lining up with the real legitimacy provided by millions of Egyptians on strike on the streets, or standing in the camp of the regime that has killed our people, terrorized them and stole from them,” read the statement.
The protesters say the army has until Thursday morning to make its position clear. A lack of response will be interpreted as support for Egypt’s ruling regime.
The march will commence after Friday Muslim prayers and Christian services, according to the statement.
Meanwhile, the liberal Democratic Front Party is expected to release a statement later on Monday calling on the military not to take part in cracking down on protesters.
“We believe that the president is trying to involve the army in a confrontation with the people,” Ibrahim Nawar, official spokesman for the party, told Al-Masry Al-Youm. “In our statement we will remind the army that it is the shield of the people.”
Nawar added that he expects military presence will be beefed up in Cairo and Giza to prevent large numbers of protesters from reaching Tahrir Square, which has become the central gathering area of tens of thousands of protesters for the last six days.

Posted by: annie | Jan 31 2011 17:23 utc | 10

b- thanks for your back-2-back coverage. I agree revolutions tend to unfold slowly, yet Egypt’s intifada has already imprinted itself on the Arab masses (although not exclusively – some Northeast African countries are already clamping down afraid of the winds blowing their way). It resonates with a global audience as a part of a larger drama of resistance against authoritarianism.
That said the strength of the intifada, it’s spontaneous decentralized nature, can also be it’s weakness if some form of organized platform does not emerge to mobilize the popular power on displace in the streets of Cairo. As unfortunate as it currently seem’s the Brotherhood and El-Baradei (read link below on Vijay’s +ve assessment of El- I disagree he is virtually unknown in Egypt [read angry arab blog] and politically an empty vessel akin to Obama) are riding the waves of rebellion to ‘negotiate’ with the military dictatorship to ‘transition’ to electoral democracy. This nips in the bud any far more substantive transformation in Egypt and the path of the current intifada may depend on continued street protests to confront, divide and remove the military from the VP and PM offices.
Despite the initial timidity of the ‘crisis managers’ the dice has been cast and it seem’s all 3 scenarios are at play:
The New Arab Revolts
(1) the military, under Egyptian ruling class and US pressure, will take control. This is off the cards in Tunisia for now, mainly because the second option presented itself; (2) elements of the ruling coalition are able to dissipate the crowds through a series of hasty concessions, notably the removal of the face of the autocracy (Ben Ali to Saudi Arabia). If Mubarak leaves and the reins of the Mubarakian state are handed over to the safe-keeping of one of his many bloodsoaked henchman such as Omar Suleiman…. Mubarak tried this with Ahmed Shafik, but he could as well have gone to Tantawi….all generals who are close to Mubarak and seen as safe by the ruling bloc. We shall wait to see who all among the elite will start to distance themselves from Mubarak, and try to reach out to the streets for credibility. As a last-ditch effort, the Shah of Iran put Shapour Bakhtiar as PM. That didn’t work. Then the revolt spread further. If that does not work, then, (3) the US embassy will send a message to Mohamed El-Baradei, giving him their green light. El-Baradei is seen by the Muslim Brotherhood as a credible candidate.

Posted by: Minerva | Jan 31 2011 17:37 utc | 11

Looks to me like a stand-off at the moment alexno wrote.
Yes. Probably hope of fizzle out is still current. Maybe decision-taking is confused and slow.
The thing is that Mubarak is not budging. He is not leaving. (Or not just yet.)
For events to move forward, he has to decamp. The people demand it: only his departure, or other disappearance, will serve to legitimize, invigorate, propel forward, have others join, this revolutionary movement. Nothing else will do, it is clear: this one event is the symbolic lynch pin, built not only on the Tunisia model but e.g. the Saddam model, from the other side. And age old tradition.
Any outcome with Mubarak in place, just present in the country and in a ‘not high direction’ role, would be an unacceptable compromise solution of supervised ‘transition’ with new figures replacing the old in a game of musical chairs, with some adjustments, such as extra food subsidies, state job creation programs, district elections, a ta-rah, ta-rah, ersatz renewal, showing that hey ho! Some ‘arabs’ are ‘ready’ for a homeopathic dose of democracy, and isn’t that a wonderful thing, societies DO develop, and there is always the domino effect?
Now that might all take place even if Mubarak flees, but if he stays, it is guaranteed.
I’m afraid the Egyptians may become hungry. For some up to 10? days ppl don’t notice, but after a few weeks surviving without the usual trade and delivery is tough. Egypt is extremely food vulnerable. It is the biggest wheat importer in the world (see one link) I guess maybe 50% or more of its food is imported, with minor exports to shut off for compensation. There are already reports of no gas at the gas stations. (see also Lysander above..)
Paralyzing the country with general strikes is an option, of course, but what will the outcome be? All out Civil war?
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/minister-egypt-imports-40-its-food

Posted by: Noirette | Jan 31 2011 18:02 utc | 12

there seems at this hour a many more people in the square

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 31 2011 18:43 utc | 13

The army’s statement] said “freedom of expression” was guaranteed to all citizens using peaceful means.
It was the first such explicit confirmation by the army that it would not fire at demonstrators who have taken to the streets of Egypt since last week to try to force Mubarak to quit.
“The presence of the army in the streets is for your sake and to ensure your safety and wellbeing. The armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people,” the army statement said.
“Your armed forces, who are aware of the legitimacy of your demands and are keen to assume their responsibility in protecting the nation and the citizens, affirms that freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody.”
It urged people not resort to acts of sabotage that violate security and destroy public and private property. It warned that it would not allow outlaws and to loot, attack and “terrorise citizens”.
what to make of this statement from the army

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jan 31 2011 19:11 utc | 14

It means that the army isn’t ready to commit a massacre to protect the regime, at least while the protests keep increasing and the whole world is looking at them. But it doesn’t seem ready to kick out Mubarak out either.
The protesters have not confronted the army yet, but they will have to break the current ‘impasse’.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jan 31 2011 19:47 utc | 15

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