The past September parliament elections in Afghanistan were fraudulent. The Independent Election Commission threw out one fourth of the votes and in a not-transparent way declared some 249 candidates as valid winners. In addition to the rampant and obvious fraud many Pashtuns in the south and east could not or would not vote at all.
The result is a very skewed political body with some districts, though mostly Sunni and Pashtun, only represented by Shia Hazara candidates or many not represented at all. The "western" occupation governments wanted to pamper over the problem and accepted and even lauded the results.
But Karzai could not accept them. He wants to make peace with the Taliban and prevent a new all out civil war. That demands a parliament which at least somewhat represents the Pashtun population, the biggest single group in Afghanistan, and supports his peace efforts. Instead he was now confronted with a future parliament with a non-Pashtun majority that would likely not agree to any compromise with the resistance.
In December Karzai, with the help of the Afghan Supreme Court (something U.S. media tend not to mention), created a Special Court to again look into the fraud issues. Two days ago and with the parliament ready to be inaugurated on Sunday, the Special Court requested another month of investigation time, asked to postpone the inauguration and even hinted towards new elections.
While the candidates who had "lost" where happy with this, the candidates that had "won" did not like these prospects. They threaten to inaugurate themselves anyway.
Unfortunately the "western" forces seem to support them:
"Enough is enough. What Karzai is doing is clearly illegal," a senior diplomat said.
Mr. Karzai decided Wednesday to postpone the inauguration by a month to give a special court, which he had created, more time to investigate election-fraud allegations.
The newly elected lawmakers argue that the court is unconstitutional, a view shared by Afghan election authorities and diplomats in the U.S.-led coalition.
(Please notice that the Wall Street Journal and the "senior diplomat" do not mention the Supreme Court which has even named the judges for the Special Court. Do legal opinions of foreign diplomats have a higher standing than those of the Afghan Supreme Court judges?)
Several Western envoys, including U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura, have indicated they planned to attend the inauguration, diplomats involved in the meeting in Kabul Thursday said. Doing so would recognize the new parliament and be a blow to Mr. Karzai.
"This is a litmus test for the international community," one ambassador said. "Karzai believes he can freely do what he wants, but Sunday will be a wakeup call."
Actually the "international community" failed the litmus test when it agreed to the fraudulent election results.
But I agree with the "wakeup call" designation.
Seating a parliament that in no way represents major parts of the population will be the wakeup call for many more people to join the resistance against the illegal government. The candidates who "lost", with some quite powerful folks beyond them, will certainly seek revenge for their loss of honor. Having lost his face Karzai may well step down and go into exile. Forget any move towards peace.
That will of course suit Petraeus and others who want to prolong the war as much as possible.