Egypt - Oil Prices Demand A Coup
Looking at the live pictures from Tahrir Square it seems that there are more people there than yesterday.
The army has build concrete block barricades into many access roads to the square. They may be intended to stop or at least hinder the big demonstration the opposition has announced for tomorrow. A pro-regime demonstration has also been announced though it is not clear yet if the plan is to have both demonstration meet and fight it out.
Mubarak promoted some additional hardliners to cabinet positions. He clearly does not want to give up.
The international community, aka the U.S. and EU, now have a new incentive to push Mubarak out. Brent oil just broke the 100$/barrel mark. Oil prices over $100 usually pushes the U.S. economy into a recession. Obama certainly does not want or need another one.
Insecurity about Egypt and the Suez Channel demands that the world pays a high risk premium - or change the situation.
From Wikileaks cables we know that the U.S. "Leahy vetted" what seems to be every officer in the Egyptian Army. We can thereby be sure that the Pentagon has quite intimate knowledge about and good connections with, not only to the very top officers of Mubarak's army, but also to the Colonel and One-Star General level.
Some phone calls made, some money transfer arranged and a coup scenario suddenly becomes a real possibility. Brent at $100 makes it a necessity.
Posted by b on January 31, 2011 at 17:29 UTC | Permalink | Comments (31)
John Barry's Historical Revisionism
Writing in Newsweek John Barry uses historical revisionism to let Hillary Clinton look good:
As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton herself put it last month, in a speech in Doha that now seems uncannily prescient, Arab leaders would face growing unrest, extremism, and even rebellion unless they reformed “corrupt institutions and a stagnant political order.” It was the starkest warning ever delivered by a senior American official, and a message brought home a few days later when Tunisia erupted in revolt.
Clinton held her speech in Doha on January 13. The very same day Reuters wrote:
Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, facing the worst unrest of his rule, said on Thursday he would not run again when his term ends in 2014, prompting scenes of celebration in the streets of the capital.Ben Ali, only the second head of state Tunisia has ever had and in office for over 23 years, set his departure date in an emotional televised speech made after weeks of deadly clashes between protesters and police.
The speech Clinton held did not show "uncannily prescient" remarkable foresight, as Barry wants to make his readers believe, but was a quite late reaction nearly a month after Tunisia started to erupted in revolt.
Such overt bootlicking may buy the author more access to Clinton and other officials, but it is a disservice to his readers.
Posted by b on January 31, 2011 at 16:50 UTC | Permalink | Comments (1)
Jan 31 - Coverage Of Protests In Egypt
Overnight some protester stayed in the Tharir square in Cairo. Some sources say there were 10,000 people, other say 200.
The government is putting up concrete barrier on several roads in Cairo.
The opposition has called for a big demonstration tomorrow. That might be too early for the big push that is needed. People need rest and have time to discuss the developments. But keeping up the momentum is certainly also important.
The counter-revolution strategy of creating chaos and uncertainty, by pulling the police off the street and letting thugs and goons free to loot, was somewhat effective. Police is slowly coming back to the streets and is reported to be greated friendly.
There is a middle class in Egypt that has things to loose and will prefer stability over political freedom. The 1.2 million security personal are also likely to prefer a continuation of the regime. But the upper class is reportedly busy transferring its money out of the country. That may be a sign that the regime is crumbling.
I do not expect any big development today and will not do a running live coverage today. But revolutions are inherently unpredictable. If something comes up, I'll update accordingly.
What are your estimates and expectations on how the situation in Egypt will develop?
Posted by b on January 31, 2011 at 8:02 UTC | Permalink | Comments (15)
Jan 30 - Live Coverage Of Protests In Egypt
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.
End of day comment:
Revolutions take weeks, not days. We will likely see a violent crackdown in the next days, possibly tomorrow.
The U.S. closed its embassy. The U.S. and other countries are is still evacuating their nationals. They expect more strife.
They likely know that a major violent crackdown is coming. With the interior security forces coming back tonight/tomorrow, that is a real possibility. There were less people in the street today than yesterday. There will be less tomorrow, giving a chance for a crackdown. That would not be the end but a significant setback. Maybe that an expected rumored crackdown is also the reason why ElBaradei came out tonight - too early, unprepared and rushed.
ElBaradei seems to have been more on U.S. TV today than on Arabic TV. His strategy is to have the U.S abandon Mubarak. He is thinking too U.S. centric. U.S. endorsement will not come and even if it would, it would not be enough. (Thanks to r'giap a fitting translation of Hillary Clinton speaking: What They really Mean)
The people have to take Mubarak down. If ElBaradei really wants to part of that -he currently isn't- he has to be with the people. Not just in a five minute unheard speech in Tahrir, but leading a big march. Endorsement from the Jewish financed Brookings' Indyk and the Brookings expert from Doha who is on Al Jazeera English all day has likely zero to negative meaning on the street.
The opposition should call for big demonstration after next Friday's prayer and repeat such demonstrations every week until the regime falls.
Revolutions take weeks, not days.
---live blogging from today below in time reverse order---
One correspondent on phone says five trucks of interior security forces seen in one suburb neighborhood.
Reuters has some bits from ElBaradei:
"I bow to the people of Egypt in respect. I ask of you patience, change is coming in the next few days," he said.
"You have taken back your rights and what we have begun cannot go back," he said as crowds chanted "Down with Mubarak."
"We have one main demand -- the end of the regime and the beginning of a new stage, a new Egypt."
[Question: Isn't an Indyk endorsement a kiss of death?]
Sultan Al Qassemi (journo from The National) tweets:
BBC Arabic: Martin Indyk former US Ambassador to Israel & Brookings VP says that it seems the US government is leaning to @ElBaradei
[Question: Is ElBaradei a U.S. supported selection?]
18:00 GMT - 20:00 Cairo
AJ live feed from Tahrir - loud shouting - then loud whistling - loud shouting of some slogan again - something is happening there (video shows only the center of the place while most of the people are, like yesterday, in the south east corner of the extended square)
[AJ is over-analyzing the short ElBaradei speech - saying he is now a leader - he is not - he has yet to reach the people]
Some more short video of ElBaradei speaking - he was pressed with (foreign) media folks - hardly a protester who could have heard him
[few people could have heard ElBaradei - he needs to do something much bigger - call for a central big demonstration in daytime - arrange for a stage etc - make it a confrontation point - something more people can hear - more media can cover]
AJ has a short video (not live) of ElBaradei using a megaphone and speaking in Tahrir
Reuters cites security sources in Egypt: Police will be back on the streets tomorrow
[Judging just from the pictures Al Arabia TV coverage is somewhat similar to AlJazeera's. Has some of the same pictures. Shows more looting though. This revolution is then widely seen all over all Arab countries. We can expect more regimes to fall after this.]
AJ has (not live) video of Baradei in Tahrir now - looks tightliped - waiting for people to organise something so he can speak and be heared - lots of people around - Egyptian flags
17:00 GMT - 19:00 Cairo
Live video shows night prayer in Tahrir
Al Arabia is also covering (in Arabic) and has pictures from Tahrir Square: netstream AlArabia 2 - more Arabic TV here
[Isn't the army the government - all three on top are military folks - how does on split the army from these?]
Cairo by phone - ElBaradei will make appeal for support to army
Baradei arrived at Tahrir Square
[via a tweet: BBC Arabic says 150,000+]
Cairo/Tahrir by phone - says crowd in Tahrir is increasing
[Not to forget: There are reports by BBC and others of big protests in many other major cities in Egypt. It's not only Tahrir and Cairo though that is the symbolic center.]
[Baradei - not sure how/if people will accept this. Anyway - I believe he would do a credible job (if he survives this) and seems to have no personal intend to become a dictator or longterm power figure.]
Suez by phone - Baradei on way to Tahrir square - has mandate from soem opposition groups including Muslim Brotherhood for national salvation government
16:00 GMT - 18:00 Cairo (two hours into official curfew)
AJ has a video report of a former Egyptian prisoner, a member of "Army of Islam", who says he yesterday fled the prison together with over 1200 other prisoners - used a tunnel to come to Gaza
Live Tahrir square - dusk prayer - about a fifth of the people take part
A column of M1 tanks now said to be near Tahrir square, water cannons moved near
ElBaradei on CNN, explains why Muslim Brotherhood is not what U.S. people think and why it has to be included - Mubarak must step down today - will serve the people if asked - will try to make agreement with military
Egypt state TV shows Nile bridges - low traffic, few people on them
[We had so far not seen any M1 tanks, only older M60 - new more elite units on their way?]
Latest video (not live) shows a column of at least six M1 tanks (modern, US design, license build in Egypt) - fighter jets passing (not VERY low, just low - 500 meters) - a helicopter (Russion MI-17(?))
Cairo/Tahrir by phone - two military vehicle pulled back - crowd cheered
15:00 GMT - 17:00 Cairo
Alexandria by phone - tens of thousands in the city center - chanting want President hung - 70 dead in Alexandria - heard some gunfire in the last minutes - not sure what that was - saw wide shop looting this morning - neighborhood patrols try to hunt looters down looters
Guardian (tanks to Lex in comments):
Sensational political developments in Cairo, with reports that five opposition movements, including the key Muslim Brotherhood, have mandated Mohammed ElBaradei to negotiate over the formation of a temporary "national salvation government."
[fighter jet overflights might have been protection for President helo flight?]
[alltogether crowd in the street and square seems quite less than yesterday]
Cairo/Tahrir Square by phone - last helicopter flying low over Tahrir was from President's fleet with presidential seal marking (video now shows helo low passing over square (50-100 meters) - not military)
Crowd in Tahrir has not grown in the last half hour
State TV - curfew in all Egypt in place
Latest video (not live) shows protesters passing a few soldiers at a road block who try to hold them up by head - civilians regulating traffic - three M60 tanks moving pretty fast along a road
Sultan Al Qassemi of The National tweets
BREAKING: Hilary Clinton on CNN "Mubarak has not met the demands of the Egyptian people & we want a peaceful transfer of power"
No more jet overflights in the last five minutes
U.S. changing tact? Via Reuters: "Clinton says U.S. wants an "orderly transition" in Egypt so there is not a void in governance: Fox interview" and "Hillary Clinton says U.S. wants to see 'free and fair elections' in Egypt as Washington has urged for decades: NBC interview"
Helo in video feed flying low and slow over Tahrir
Cairo by phone - (fighter jet noise - a siren in the background) - while walking from hotel stopped by security forces not army - police back? - saw more military too
Egypt state TV shows the army chief visiting troops on the ground motivating soldiers - in the background were civilians pointing to the sky
AJ has another new live cam view - skyline type - seems to be from the Hilton towards South over the National Museum and towards Tahrir Square - no fighter planes visible in direct overfly but I saw a helicopter passing by on it some minutes ago
14:00 GMT - 16:00 Cairo
[Showdown time?]
Reports of additional military trucks on the way to Tahrir Square
Live feed from crowd in Tahrir has shouting increasing after jet overflights
[Trying to intimidate? Too late now.]
Fighter jets flying low over Tahrir Square multiple times
Intelligence Minister and Defense Minister just entered state TV building - will probably make an announcement
["a committee of concerned citizens" for a MB gang rushing a jail ... hmmm - pretty editorial]
AJ talks to some Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson issam Illarian - who had been in jail and was freed by protesters - interviewer: "We understand you have been released by a committee of concerned citizens, ..." - MB wandts end of emergency state (in place for years) and dissolution of parliament
Egypt state TV announcers and guests call for not watching AJ
Activist in Alexandria by phone - army everywhere - some normal thieves looting, some looters are secret police
Activist in Cairo/Tahrir by phone - spoke to army officer - said had orders to shoot on protesters yesterday but did not do it - (helicopter noise) - believes that soldiers will not fire
Some people in Tahrir Square praying - a fifth of the crowd maybe - crowd now growing quite fast
Alexandria - large funerals held - tuned into large protests - various looting in shops etc - have their own security now - provincial building burned down - army tries to enforce law and order - checkpoints - ID-checks - curfew announced for 3pm (i.e. 15 minutes ago)
Cairo via phone - people discussing a lot - peaceful, but no longer celebratory with soldiers - rumors about old Minister of Interior arrested - unconfirmed - no new cabinet named yet
AJ stopped to announce the names of the correspondents it talks to in Egypt
AJ again with live pictures of Tahrir Square - crowd seems to further grow
13:00 GMT - 15:00 Cairo
Sultan Al Qassemi of The National tweets (newest on top):
ANOTHER EXCLUSIVE: Very reliable source from Egypt: Habib Al Adly authorized snipers yesterday to shoot at protesters. (NOT in the news yet)
EXCLUSIVE: Very reliable source from Egypt: Habib Al Adly was arrested for opening the doors to all jail cells yesterday so chaos ensues.
BREAKING Al Hurra: Egyptian Army issues statement that is has arrested Interior Minister Habib Al Adly & NDP thug Ahmad Ezz (AMAZING!)
Video on AJ is live feed of Tahrir square - thousands milling around, no cars, no military
Suez by phone - demonstrations in main street increasing - army not interfering - strike in factories in Suez - someone is making propaganda against AJ - saw a banner that said "don't talk to AJ, they are lying"
AJ says senior retired judge came out in support of people
Issandr El Amrani blogs from Cairo: Manipulation
There is a discourse of army vs. police that is emerging. I don't fully buy it — the police was pulled out to create this situation of chaos, and it's very probable that agent provocateurs are operating among the looters, although of course there is also real criminal gangs and neighborhoods toughs operating too.For me, Omar Suleiman being appointed VP means that he's in charge. This means the old regime is trying to salvage the situation. Chafiq's appointment as PM also confirms a military in charge. These people are part of the way Egypt was run for decades and are responsible for the current situation. I suspect more and more people, especially among the activists, are realizing this.
...
The situation is obviously very confusing at the moment. All I can say is that I have a hard time believing that Mubarak is still in charge, and that the hard core of the regime is using extreme means to salvage its position.
Cairo - Tahrir Square via phone - (video show more people there - several thousands) - reporter says people in lines praying - military helicopters overhead - state TV shows Mubarak meeting military commanders (Mubarak and Suleiman stonefaced) - protesters seem determined
Cairo via phone - helicopters in the air - intelligence security came to AJ bureau and told them to shut down - "stop filming or we take camera"
Report - Ministery of Interior has been evacuated after gunfights
[but Egypt is a military dictatorship]
AJ has some Arabic Brookings fellow - someone will have to back down - possibly cracks in the military
12:00 GMT - 14:00 Cairo
via Twitter - civil cloth security forces shut down AJ bureau in Cairo
via Twitter - AJ crew leaving Suez - too dangerous - direct threats - thugs?
Cairo - Tahrir Square by phone - several thousands protester there - a fire truck trying to drive into the Square - was blocked by protesters as the protesters assumed it would be used as water cannon to push them out - military near by then fired into the air to disperse protesters from fire truck - then ordered the fire truck out - when military fired into air, people did not flee but ran towards the firing
Suez by phone - military officers says will not fire on people - people securing their streets - Egypt state TV shows five arrested looters
Nothing about AJ closure in Cairo on AJ English TV so far
Video of some civil protection groups from last night - have pistols(!) and sticks, Molotow cocktails, want Mubarak gone
NYT has a map with crucial locations in Cairo - includes Oct 6 bridge, Tahrir Square etc.
AJ still has live pictures from AJ Cairo office looking over Oct 6 bridge
11:00 GMT - 13:00 Cairo
Ayman Mohyeldin - AJ correspondent in Cairo on twitter:
Al Jazeera Arabic and Al Jazeera English have just been taken off air in #Egypt (via phone)
Antiquities boss Zahi Hawass on phone - "criminals" broke into national museum - nothing stolen - now army is protecting the museum
AJ - death toll last 48 hours at least 150
Cairo activist on phone - army has closed all traffic to Tahrir Square but lets people through
U.S. and Turkey have send planes to ferry back their tourists currently in Egypt - seems they expect this to go on
Alexandria live view - looks calm, relative light traffic - but reporter says protests in some areas - no buisiness as usual - shops staying close despite this being a business day - people are stocking up - gas stations with long lines
Expert on AJ - Thinking of the army is that its task is protecting the nation, not the system - big difference
[question is who would enforce AJ closing - if AJ is smart they will ask the people for protection]
Evan Hill from Cairo via twitter:
State TV announces Al Jazeera's broadcasting license and press cards are being revoked. Our bureau is packing up. #jan25
AJ studio expert/analyst Hesham ? - believes police retreat is government tactics to target peoples security - it is still to be seen if the army is helping the people or just the system
Egyptian blogger Wael Abbas by phone from Cairo - plans for more protests at Tahrir Square today - some looting incidence are created - some arrested looters had secret security IDs
Alexandria by phone - protests in three neighborhoods now - against Mubarak and Suleiman - military searching some cars, checking identities - found weapons within some cars - tap water is not running in some neighborhoods - military not stopping protesters, only looting - ambulances have been used by looters as disguise to enter neighborhoods - military now checking ambulances
Cairo - a tank with "no Mubarak" sprayed on it - no police on the street at all
Cairo - Oct.6-bridge view - relative light car traffic - some groups of protesters have put up slogans - all major roads have military on it - one roadblock on Oct.6 bridge shows soldiers with helmets and visor and assault rifles ready on hand - less relaxed than yesterday
10:00 GMT - 12:00 Cairo
NYT's take of Suleiman: Choice Likely to Please the Military, Not the Crowds - I would add "And Please Washington", The piece says this a complete military takeover. But Egypt already was a military dictatorship, so that is really no change at all of the system.
[a bit exaggerated in my view - things are still in a balance and the people have not won yet]
AJ studio expert/analyst - calls this a revolution - people will have to decide now - "Mind quake" of the people happened - capability of the people have been build - dictatorship has shown weakness - expects change
Cairo - heavy military presense around state TV and Information Ministery - military setting up more roadblocks in Cairo - U.S. and British embassies cordoned off by military - banks, stock exchange expected to stay closed today
Israel - reporter by video - no reaction from Israel to Egypt military being in the Sinai
Suez - reporter by phone - no protests yet today - security a big problem - reporters were mobed - military in the street but mostly protecting installation - military says it does not have the numbers to control all crime - according to eyewitnesses, looters seem to be known security forces goons - people formed watch groups for their neighborhoods
AJ says - likely more demonstrations today - army increased presense - looting problems
9:00 GMT - 11:00 Cairo
AJ Cairo - sources in Sharm El Sheik, a tourist town in Sinai, say military in the street. Under Camp David accords there is no military allowed in Sinai. There have been rumors that Mubarak is in Sharm El Sheik.
Reports of some prisons stormed by the people and of freed prisoners
8:00 GMT - 10:00 Cairo
Posted by b on January 30, 2011 at 8:15 UTC | Permalink | Comments (35)
Jan 29 - Live Coverage Of Protests In Egypt
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live and other sources. Newest entry on top.
End of day comment:
Mubarak, after taking advice from Washington, has today installed three high militaries - Suleiman as VP, Anan as second VP, Shafik as Premier Minister - as his follow on triumvirate. All three are well known and loved in Washington and Tel Aviv. Mubarak sent his children and their families to London. It seems Washington told him to get ready to step down if needed and, if he has to step down, to hand his military dictatorship over to Washington's selected officers. Washington may then later find or not find a better solution.
Meantime Mubarak is trying to create chaos and fear by first pulling all police, even traffic police, from the streets for over 24 hours and then sending some of them back in civil cloth to loot and do other bad things. Some people who called AJ to report about looting seem to have been stooges supporting that strategy.
After the big win against the regime on Friday and the peaceful big demonstrations today the people are unlikely to accept these machination. The protests will continue.
The military has decided not to act against the people. That could change later, though I find it unlikely after seeing the ways the people and soldiers colaborated today.
ElBaradei is now nicely positioning himself as an interim leader within some temporary national unity government. That would be a good solution in my view.
---live blogging from today below in time reverse order---
Alexandria - some neighborhoods report no tap water
AJ just repeated the swearing in ceremony of Suleiman. After reading his oath, Suleiman gave a military(!) salute to Mubarak (both were in civil outfit).
AJ reports - Officials say NOTHING has been stolen from the "looted" museum [another hint towards a government "looting" strategy] - things have just been put on the ground and two mummies are damaged
19:00 GMT - 21:00 Cairo
Alexandria by phone - reporter has eyewitness reports of looters killed by civilians - some reported no tap water - residents chasing looters in the streets
AJ reporter - state TV claims some Muslim Bortherhood have been jailed for looting - reporter doesn't trust the report of MB looting -- thinks it is government nati-MB campaign.
Steve Clemons of The Washington Note on Suleiman: Omar Suleiman: Egypt's Own George Mitchell
Egypt was selected by the Arab League to lead these talks -- and Suleiman became the Egyptian "George Mitchell" for these unity efforts. Fatah and Hamas came close several times to a deal -- but ultimately, the United States privately conveyed to Mubarak and to Suleiman that it didn't want to see the process succeed.
...
Suleiman, intel chief and now Egypt's VP, was America's proxy.
Cairo - Two vans with blue flashlights in Tahrir square - protestors let them pass - can not see if police or ambulances, but assume ambulances
Alexandria - by phone - protests ongoing - complete breakdown of law and order - young man with clubs and chains looting - people create civil patrols in their area to prevent looting - there was a protest march against him after announcement of Suleiman as VP
18:00 GMT - 20:00 Cairo
Alexandria - by phone - protesting people shouting against Suleiman - police has released thugs that are looting
Cairo - AJ reporter - no police, security forces has been seen on the streets for 24 hours - reporter says that Interior Ministray has 1.2 million on its force - they just "melted away" - or are looting ...
Baradei in Arabic on AJ - calls for system change - moving faces within the system not enough - wants new national government - Mubarak hasn't got the message - countries (U.S.) should recalculate - Baradei calls on the youth to protect Egypt and property and for the army to protect the people
Cairo AJ reporter says has been getting several reports from eyewitnesses - looters where caught and had government issued security service identification - other looters also described as security service people on motorcycle - reporter says same happened in Tunisia - sees regime intend to create chaos
Cairo live camera - people in Tahrir Square shouting slogans - still several thousand at least
The Angry Arab: The US is cooking in Egypt
Aljazeera is reporting that Egyptian Army's chief-of-staff, `Anan, who was in Washington, DC until yesterday, will be sworn in as the second vice-president of Egypt. The man (Mubarak) who always insisted that there is no need for a vice-president, now has two. The US is clearly trying to abort the change agenda of the Egyptian people but I doubt that the mass genie which is out of the bottle--how is that for a cliche?--will put up with that plot.
Mubarak's children reported to be in London now [rats ... ship]
Cairo - View form AJ studio - pretty empty - a few cars, few people - Tahrir Square seems to get emptier
AJ: Military is reinforcingin all areas to increase security everywhere
17:00 GMT - 19:00 Cairo
Suez - phone report - army starts to enforce curfew - without violence so far - throughout the day army did not intervene in looting says the reporter
Cairo live TV - about a quarter of the people in Tahrir Square bowing in neat rows for evening prayer
Baradei interview - people need real change - Mubarak has to go - wants a substantive transition from authoritarian to a democratic system
[I get the feeling that this "we turn the program over now to our looting reporting phase" is somehow scripted]
Another caller to AlJazeera - whining loud about looting - waiting for police - no military there - but doesn't describe any looting he has witnessed himself - "they are coming from the poor areas" - says where he is there are civilians in the street guarding the shops and streets [so why does he whine?]
AJ now shows pictues from inside a museum that was a bit looted yesterday - later civilians protected the museum with a human chain - military in museum now - looks like some, but small damage
Another caller on AlJazeerah - whining about looting - but has not seen any himself it seems [has U.S. slang in his English - likely a stooke in my view]
[Seems clear to me now that Suleiman is the U.S. selected person. Just replacing the dictator ...]
The king said protesters had been "exploited to spew out their hatred in destruction . . . inciting a malicious sedition,'' according to the statement, posted on the English website of the Saudi Press Agency.
[Looting could be government goons, setting the scene they need to denounce demonstraters. Could also be just normal criminals.]
AJ just had a call from another part of Cairo with reports of looting.
[That sounds like the U.S. accepts (selected) these folks but for PR reasons must push for some 'action' now]
Tweed from State spokesman Crowley
The #Egyptian government can't reshuffle the deck and then stand pat. President #Mubarak's words pledging reform must be followed by action.
[Still a military dictatorship with all top figures high rank military folks - bad move by Mubarak - he should have tried some civilians - but maybe Washington told him to stick with folks they know well]
Ahmed Shafik named new Prime Minister:
a fighter pilot who served as the commander of Egyptian Air Force from 1996–2002, and was nominated in 2002 to become the Egyptian Minister for Civil Aviation
[Suleiman/Soliman could be the selection of the higher military command - he is one of them]
Several analysts asked by AJ think the naming of Suleiman/Soliman VP will not be enough to stop the protests
16:00 GMT - 18:00 Cairo
Cairo - reporter - 8 prisoners have been killed in clashes with the police at a prison in Suz(?) - some vandalism, looting in a luxery shop street
Foreign Policy Review (now defunct) wrote (scroll down) about Suleiman in 2010:
A known quantity at the Pentagon, the CIA and State Department, Suleiman is also well respected in Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia—America’s most critical Middle Eastern allies. As the Obama administration struggles to restart Palestinian-Israeli peace talks and strengthen its anti-Iran coalition in the Middle East Suleiman’s diplomatic and intelligence background could prove to be a valuable asset.
Interview with NDP party speaker - "responding to the demand of people", "reform may not exchange faces", "Presdent can delegate to Vice Presdent" [or can not], "Mubarak is elected President" - calls people in the street "mob"
Cairo - Reporter says people in Tahrir Square already chant against Suleiman
Zainoba of Egyptian Chronicles wrote two years ago about Suleiman (also transliterated as Soliman):
I know that the West is seeing a candidate in Soliman because they consider Egypt as a Military police dictatorship and Soliman is a military contrary to GM and he is also an excellent diplomat with the foreign world ,still this is not enough.
Cairo live - now rows of people parying in the Tahrir Square
Alexandria - by phone - reporter says Suleiman was often seen but never heard - Egyptian can not judge his character - too loyal to Mubarak
Wiki: Omar Suleiman:
Suleiman has acquired a more public profile while trying to broker a deal between the different armed Palestinian groups vying for power in Gaza as the top presidential envoy from President Hosni Mubarak as well as brokering deals or truces between the Palestinians and Israel. His perceived role in negotiations between Palestinian groups gave him the image of an effective behind-the-scenes figure in the Egyptian government as well as identifying him as potentially useful to foreign governments such those of the Arab countries, Israel, the Palestinians and the United States.
[Could that be the U.S. plan - a CIA stooge with good connections to Israel made VP, Mubarak steps back, VP becomes President?]
Intelligence chief Suleiman just made Vice President [the first VP in 30 years]
[the current AJ main talker is an annoying too fast talking agressive woman that asks the wrong questions]
Interview with some Muslim Brotherhood bigwig (Fotouh) - hopes for peaceful ower transfer - calls on people to stay constrained - calls for Mubarak to setp down - wants national transition unity government - then new parliamentary election - points to U.S. and Saudi influence that keeps Mubarak going
Cairo - a M60 main battle tank loaded with protesters slowly crawling through the street
AJ reporter in Cairo says more people today in the streets than yesterday [my impression too]
[Yesterday AJ showed people praying in roes on the street - no such scene today. Does that mean that the Muslim Brotherhood, which did take part yesterday, is not on the street today?]
15:00 GMT - 17:00 Cairo
Cairo - an M113 armourd personal carrier driving through Tahrir Square with some 30 civilians standing on top of it
Cairo - AJ reporter talked with tank commander - has no heavy ammunition for the tank gun, only for personal AK47 assault rifle [very good news]
[Circular news: The AJ studio talker announced the three people dead "according to Reuters", Reuters writes on its website (live.reuters.com/Event/Unrest_in_Egypt) at 3:28pm "Al Jazeera reports 3 protesters dead after attempt to storm Egyptian interior ministry"]
Three people dead after attempt to storm Interior Ministry
[Carried body could be show]
AJ live with feed from Tahrir (Liberation) Square now - looks pretty packed - several 10,000 people - reporter said some were carrying a dead(?) body through the crowd - crowd demanding the murderer - another camera had a short view of the body, immediately cut away - now back - a huge procession following
Some senior politician resigned from ruling NDP party [rats ... ship]
14:00 GMT - 16:00 Cairo - start of official curfew
[I agree with Issandr that the military deployment is meager. Big tanks are not really useful for crowd control - they can be rushed by 'infantry' and can be blocked off. The number of M113 infantry carriers we see is not big either. Those aluminum cans on tracks (they burn well) hold 10 infantry soldiers each. With those dozens deployed we see that are only a few hundred men. Much less than the police numbers we saw yesterday and without chance with these big crowds.]
Issandr has a new piece up: The army and the people
Going around central Cairo today, it strikes me the deployment of the army is quite meager considering the circumstances. The crowds are very pro-army, I filmed an amazing moment when a charismatic one-star general addressed the public and spoke of the importance of maintaining public order. People kept shouting, are you with or against Mubarak? He answered that his mission is making sure the looting stops, and that the issue of who governs if the people's decision, not the army's, and that government should be civilian.
...
About a 1,000 people trying to storm Interior Ministry downtown Cairo - ministry seen as torture house
Heavy gunfire said to be heard at printing house of central bank [someone needs money?]
State TV reports a burned police station in a southern city
Cairo - live video - crowds, marching groups/columns seem to get bigger - tanks surrounded with people, very relaxed for now - some civilians directting traffic - a military column of M60 tanks moving with civilians directing traffic for them - reporter says civilians handing flowers to soldiers
AJ talking to some leftist professor of the American University in Cairo and head of some worker groups - she calls for a general strike.
[Mubarak has few options now. Ordering the military to enforce the curfew will either not happen, when the military will not follow orders, or will be VERY bloody as the crowds are huge and still growing. The second would probably also lead to even bigger protests.]
ElBaradei on phone with AJ - appeals to army to stay on the side of the people
Cairo live - ongoing marches - people a bit euphoric - one M60 surrounded by some 2,000 people (my estimate), soldiers on top - central bank says all banks should close - one protester, elder man, with a piece of cloth with "Israel head for death" written on it - state TV warns of violating the curfew (in 50 minutes) - to hold curfew will be impossible - roads are full with either cars or protesters
Alexandria live - ongoing peaceful protests - people act against vandalism - caught thieves get handed over to the military
13:00 GMT - 15:00 Cairo
AJ talking with some Egyptian analyst currently in Johannesburg - AJ presses for ElBaradei - analyst says not so sure, the soccer association is more popular and more involved - people did not like that he was absend during the last weeks - but analyst says Baradei could be an interim figure
Issandr El Amrani is back in Cairo and has a current report and his thoughts at The Arabist - seems to confirm what we see.
Human Rights Watch guy from Alexandia by phone - protests all around the city - several thousands - no uniformed police but some armed civil police in the street - hospitals overwhelmed with wounded - life ammunition shots - total dead in Alexandria at least 36 - protesters relatively firendly to soldiers, bring tea to them, but wonder what they will do when they get orders to shoot
[AlJazeera is totally pro-protesters and anti-Mubarak - not sure that is officially intended but it is just so.]
Cairo - video - soldiers sitting relaxed on tanks, drinking tea - protesters around shouting - one man climbs onto a tank, kisses soldier - waves flag jumping up and down - is asked by soldier to get back down - does so
Cairo - live video - two columns of protesters just met - some 10-20,000 (my estimate) shouting slogans, showing flags - no special type of people - socially mixed crowd, but not many women
Cairo - video - protesters passing between tanks that seem to have been meant as a road block - soldiers do nothing
[Wondering who will enforce the curfue. No police has been seen today but the soldiers may need relief at some time and it could be that the likely hated police will come out again.]
Cairo - live video - outside state TV offices - several hundred+ protesters - a thin line of security forces - green cloth, red helmets - holding hands cordoning off an area - in front of them a row of civilians also holding hands - looking towards the protesters - protecting the security forces - behind the red helmet line in the cordoned off area soldiers in sand color fatigue - relexed but with assault rifles
Alexandia via phone - ongoing protesters - civilians regulating traffic - local police officer in civil cloth recognized, attacked by protesters - pictures from Alexandia morgue - some 20 bodies - reporter says another place has at least 8 more - total dead count now over a hundred
12:00 GMT - 14:00 Cairo
Cairo AJ says 50,000 protesters in Tahrir Square - live video feed from AJ offices shows several thousand marching in direction of Tahrir Square - roads towards Tahrir said to be blocked by many military
4:00pm - 8:00am curfew annonced for today
Cairo - video - Oct6 bridge full of cars - groups of some 300 protesters walking along - no police - more protests expected for the afternoon
Alexandria via phone - people lining in front of ATMs withdrawing money - videos shows several burned police vans - people shaking hands with soldiers - groups of protesters
11:15 GMT - 13:15 Cairo
Press TV reports that Israeli embassy personal in Cairo has been evacuated by helicopter and flown to Tel Aviv
Cabinet has now officially resigned - no new cabinett annonced yet
Phone interview with Iranian analyst Marandi - sees this as major loss for the U.S. - compares with Iranian revolution - "the region is changing" - U.S. ties to Israel are the problem
Video pictures from inside a morque in Cairo, five bloody corps - 30 dead there is said - angry people in front of the morgue
[interviewer is pushing NDP guy pretty hard]
Phone interview with NDP (ruling party) functionary (Boutros) - "Mubarak showed response to the people" - defends government and "elected president" - warns of chaos - "we admit mistakes" - (video now shows some broken shop windows - mobile phone shop, bank) - says security people have been killed - laments about looting - "criminals are loose now" - does not want answer further questions
Suez by phone - some dead people in the morgue riddled with bullet holes - 1-2,000 protesters in the street now
Alexandria by phone - small gatherings of protesters - most of the dead were young twenty-somethings
Cairo - more demonstrators marching towards Tahrir Square - video shows groups of people discussing with soldiers - Army asked people not to amass - is obviously not followed - view from AJ office shows protesters on Oct. 6 bridge around a burned out police truck trying to push it over - about a hundered people are protesting in front of a three tank (2xM60 1xM113) roadblock - only about 20 soldiers standing in a wide line in front of the tanks - have helmets with visors and assault rifles in hand - no police visible - protesters start walking away from them
10:00 GMT - 12:00 Cairo
Violent clashes reported in a city Ismaila(?) north of Cairo
Cairo - video at a military roadblock - officer comes towards camera - seems to want it stop filming - cut
Cairo - by phone - reporter at a morgue - people waiting for their dead - furious
Suez - by phone - 2-300 protesters in the main street marching to the government building now - senior military officer says unofficialy to reporter that he will disregard orders to shoot if given, wants president down - no police in the street
Alexandria - by phone - protesters in a moving march - noise of protest slogans calling fro regime change - army in various positions around town protecting government buildings - provincial administration, mayor building police stations are burned out - bodies reporters has seen at morgue had bullet wounds, other bodies completely disfigured
Cairo studio - view shows some car traffic on the bridges crossing the Nile which have been fought about/on yesterday - pictures of a group of 500 protesters
Cairo - gunfire reported - video shows some protesters in the street - military blocks roads to state TV and Foreign Ministry
9:00 GMT - 11:00 Cairo
Cairo - Reuters: police fire shoots in central Cairo square
Cairo - interview with some Egypt blogger - says protests will continue - high level of army loyal to Mubarak
Cairo video - 20-30 burned out civil vehicles inside the perimeter of the still burning NDP party headquarter
Suez - phone interview - "orderly chaos" - army deployed in all the city covering banks - people not sure what to think about the military - ambivalent - 15 dead from yesterday at the morgue
Cairo - mobile phones now working again - some hundred people coming to Tahrir (Liberation) Square, the center of yesterdays protests- bridge in view from AJ stiudio Cairo seems to have been cleaned of yesterday's burned police vehicles
Alexandria - phone interview - all police stations burned down - 23 dead from yesterday in the morgue
Cairo - early morning video - some burned out M113 military tracked vehicle - more M113 and M60 main battle tanks deployed - people seem somewhat neutral to military
8:00 GMT - 10:00 Cairo
Posted by b on January 29, 2011 at 8:15 UTC | Permalink | Comments (59)
AlJazeera Coverage Of Protests In Egypt
Some scenes and thoughts from watching AlJazeera live. Newest entry on top.
Me signing off - this day was big and changed some important global policy issues. The era of "Egypt (80 millions people) supports the Israeli ( 3-4 million Jews) position" is over. Aside from that, some other ME regimes will go down soon. It is unpredictable what will follow them.
21:00 GMT (23:00 Cairo)
Live pictures show some big gun tanks- M60 variant - deploying - new level of violence? [doubt it for now]
[I agree - this is extrodinary and Mubarak can't get it back - additionally - this very excellent AJ coverage today will make sure this will spread to more countries in the ME and possibly beyond - all dictators in the ME (and some of our pseudo democrats elsewhere) have reason to shit their pants now - how this will end? - inpredictable - an Islamic Muslim Brother regime is just as possible as some rudimentary social democracy - whatever the result may be, Israel and the U.S. have lost an "ally" (mercenary) today and will have to do some recalculations - yesterday they were concerned about Hizbullah M8 party issues in Lebanon - Egypt is a different, a much bigger caliber - what are they going to do when Jordan and the Saudi princes fall? (Not that I expect that yet(!), but one wonders)]
AJ studio has talk with some Arab professor - "I'd be astonished if Mubarak last another weak"
20:30 GMT (22:30 Cairo)
White House press conference - 40 minutes presidential briefing on Egypt today - lots of meetings [read panic] - Obama did not speak with Mubarak - "not about picking a person" [read: Mubarak is dead] - legitimate grievencence need to be addressed blahblah - (parallel AJ video shows lots of traffic despite official curfue) - security forces and military should be restrained - our posture based on coming events [read: no idea what's gonna happen] - in continual contact with Egypt government - blahblah - no presidential contact though [Mubarak is now left in the cold - no more U.S. support]
Cairo live report - helicopters in the air - reporter shows tear gas canisters - says Made in U.S.A. - video - people walking down the streat with a looted big Egypt government seal from some ministry - Mubarak nor any other official has said something yet - military and protesters getting more unfriendly to each other - airlines cancels lots of Egypt flights (tourists, money)
AJ studio has talk with some Egypt professor - NDP building burning is a major change - we don't know what army will do - currently a vacuum of power - we need a pillar (new video shows M113 blocking a big street) - clock can not be set back - beginning of a social revolution - Tunisisation of Arab world - Gamal Mubarak succession is dead
AJ studio has a talk with another, older U.S. ambassador to Egypt, Veliotes, - talks about early Mubarak- was more liberal earlier - then blahblah
AJ studio - critical person now is Tantawi - Defense Minister, commander of army and presidential guard since 1991
Cairo - phone live report - protesters seem to be in control - military deployed but passive - mood towards military seems to change - no more celebration of them [dangerous]
Suez - phone live report - main Vodafone building looted (Vodafone blocked internet in Egypt) - business building of leading NDP party guy burned down - no police - no military visible - reporter said protesters started peaceful - there was huge animosity against state security (after three dead earlier) - police did drive vehicles (water cannons) into demonstraters starting violence - now security vacuum in the city - no police - military only securing crucial oil/gas/canal areas/buildings
AJ studio - Cairo hospitals "overwhelmed" by wounded - some 870 [overwhelmed too editorial]
Suez - phone live report - buildings at fire that belong to some NDP elites - chaoic situation - no fire engines - no police - military only secures some oil/gas company buildings/infrastructure
Cairo - phone live report from near the NDP building - six floors of the building at blaze - military helicopters in the air - thousands of protesters on the streets - sounds of gunfire reporter says - no attempts to get NDP building fire out - would be hopeless anyway reporter says
[With its main building burning and looted the NDP, the National Democratic Party which is neither national nor democratic, is done.]
[How does the introduction of the military in the streets and its welcome by the people change the power centers in Egypt? Some generals my now grow big ones. Why is Mubarak not, as announced hours ago, appearing on TV? Is he still in Egypt?]
19:00 GMT (21:00 Cairo, 3 hour into the unobserved curfue)
Cairo live pictures - people looting the burning NDP ruling party main building - a dozen police(?) vehicles around the building on fire - lots of smoke - more vehicle fires around the main square of Cairo from earlier protests there
Suez - phone live report - 12 tanks plus several personal armoured carrier just passed heading towards some important buildings (oil/gas infrastructure) - earlier police shooting at military confirmed by military - thousands of people still in the street, no sign of police, lots of military passing but otherwise just peaceful people
AJ studio says presidential guard deployed to protect state TV building
AJ studio has phone talk with someone in the a North-Sinai peninsula city - had protests - police armoured vehicle fired seven RPG - electricity cut off - there is no army in the Sinai so no military deployed
Cairo live picture - firefighters deploy to put out the fire at the ruling party's building which is next to the National Museum - more military vehicle, armoured four wheelers and tracked, greated, waved at and waving back, with/to the protesters
AJ studio talks with former U.S. ambassador to Egypt - political blah-blah - says U.S. "should not take sides" - emphazises "friendship"
Suez - phone live report - military came in at nightfall - was greeted by protesters, were shoot at from police station - military retreated - now more military vehicles deploying again - still friendly with protesters
Alexandria - phone live report - police gone away since two hours when military deployed - soldiers shake hands with protesters - fires have been put out
18:00 GMT (20:00 Cairo, 2 hour into the unobserved curfue)
AJ studio says Qatar airways stops service to Egypt - despite announcement Mubarak has not yet been on state TV
Cairo phone report from a photographer - reports several fires in Cairo
Suez - phone live report - military vehicle with surrounding friendly protesters in the street where shoot at from a policestation
Unconfimed - army, police clash in Cairo
Cairo live picture - six M113 tracked military vehicle driving towards the ministry buildings - waved at, get cheered while passing by some protesters
Alexandria - phone live report - police seems to be off the street everywhere - military deployed - friendly with protesters
AJ now making some comparison between its own live pictures and live pictures from state media - state media shows no riots as all - just a peaceful city picture
Cairo live picture - a policevan that was in a sidestreet in protesters hand has been pulled to a main street and is on fire - reporter says number of protesters seems to increase - foreign ministry is said to have been stormed by protesters [guess they want to phone Clinton?]
Suez - phone live report - army deployed - their carriers surrounded by friendly protesters
17:30 GMT (19:30 Cairo, 1 hour into the curfue)
AJ studio has phone talk with someone from Baradei's team - he is surrounded in his house- says Port Said had demonstration of 80,000
AJ studio has phone talk with some Muslim Brotherhood guy in a district some 120 miles south of Cairo - There have been protests - 50,000 people he says
Suez - phone live report - protests ongoing - army has taken police stations away from protesters
Alexandria - phone live report - armoured personal carriers from the Army - get thumbs up from protesters, soldiers show thumbs up too - gunfire noise in the background (automatic weapons)
AJ shows Clinton live: all should refrain from violence - urging to allow peaceful protests and to reopen communication lines - calls for reforms - mentions "a democratic society" - no request for Mubarak or government to step down
Cairo live sound - reporter says people are bashing empty police vehicle in a street next to the bureau with stones
[this AJ English coverage is excellent - if the AJ Arabic coverage is similar, the Jordan king and the Saudi princes will have to watch out ... this sets examples for their people]
17:00 GMT (19:00 Cairo, 1 hour into the curfue)
Cairo live picture - police fires teargas onto praying people - someone throws it back - lots of sound of protests and shots
Cairo live picture - some people lining up in the street for evening prayer
Suez - phone report - road that was full of protesters all day now empty - army has deployed tanks(?) but reporter does not know whereto - expects protests to continue
Alexandria - phone report - curfue gets ignored - protests contine - some people try get on cars to go home
Cairo live sound - reporter says gunfire coming from the direction of main TV building - center of government media - fire/smoke in the distance
16:30 GMT (18:30 Cairo - dark now)
Cairo reporter says gun fire - quite a lot in the riot/protester sound - doesn't know where the sound comes from
Cairo live sound - seems to be automatic weapons - lots of protester noice
Cairo live picture - headquarter of ruling NDP party seems on fire - confirmed
Suez - live by phone - army tanks deploying towards the city - center of city in the hands of protesters - total blackout of communication lines - only sat-phones working
Pictures from Alexandria a few hours ago - riots against police
Mubarak to be live on state TV in a few minutes [likely useless unless he announces his retirement]
Cairo live picture - police truck now on fire
16:05 GMT (18:05 Cairo)
Cairo live picture - truck doesn't want to go down the Nile - now trying to set it on fire
[excellent coverage by AJ - best I have ever seen]
Cairo live picture - protesters trying to dump a police personal carrier into the Nile
Cairo live picture - smoke rising near NDP party building
[does Mubarak trust the army? will it use force?]
Egypt state media - army to reinforce the police and enforce curfue
Cairo live pictures - 3 military trucks (30mm(?) cannon turrets)
Cairo live pictures but AJ pulled camera back from balcony now filming through window - protesters rushing a bridge - riot sound
Cairo live pictures - reporter says - police on the way to their office
Cairo live pictures - police has fallen back from the protesters - no clashes currently visible
Cairo live pictures - prayer over - protesters talking to police - on one bridge lots of trucks, police(30+) and fire(3), moving in a column
Alexandria - live phone report - more fires visible - a dozen police trucks on fire
Cairo live pictures - more people praying on a bridge that has been fought over all day
Suez - phone report - curfue announced - reporter thinks police unable to impose that - military?
Cairo live pictures - Prayer time (sundown in Cairo now), protesters asked police to stay back for prayers - protesters in rows praying in the street - police standing some 20 meters away
15:30 GMT
AJ Cairo says state security has entered AJ building
[curfue - who is suppost to fight for that? - police seems to be overwhelmed]
AJ reports state media says curfue from 6pm (in half an hour) on
[stun grenades are useless in riots - are they running out of teargas? they did shoot a lot]
Cairo - live pictures - some 30 riot police try to get at a group of some 200 protesters - shooting teargas and stun grenades(!) - police pushed back
Analyst (political science prof) - on seeing the military: now the army is decisive - usually the army doesn't like the police security forces - people hope army take their sides like in Tunesia
Suez - live phone report - second police station taken over - one protester dead - protest began peaceful - police escalated with watercanons - protests turned violent
[Cairo - the AlJazeera office is right next to the Hilton hotel and its balconey oversees two of the Nile bridges and the protests there - optimal location for coverage.]
[first time we see soldiers!]
Cairo: live picture - military(!) vehicle with soldiers - friendly to protesters surrounding it - gets cheered
Alexandria: live phone report - Police has no control - police groups overwhelmed - no police leadership - police conscripts don't know what to do - police trucks on fire - reporter saw protesters with a dead civilian body
15:00 GMT
Suez: live phone report - at least six police trucks set on fire - Protesters have upper hand
[some three hours ago live video from Cairo showed some 2000 people kneeing/bowing for prayer in the usual disiplined mosque rows but on the middle of a large street. Muslim Brotherhood folks?]
[my guestimate of the last scene 5-10,000 protesters.]
Suez: video - protesters burn one police vehicle - One police vehicle flees hitting several protesters - One protester captures teargas gun
[Police looks relative well organized to me, but not effective. Too many roads to cover. Lunatic tactic seen several times when a single police truck with a man looking out of the top and shooting teargas rushes after and into a crowd. Could easily be attacked if the crowd would block it off.]
14:30 GMT
AJ repeats pictures of
- plaincloth police hitting single caught protesters over and over.
- police truck retreating
- police shooting teargas
- wounded protesters
AJ now reports from London and Washington - 50 people protest in front of Egypt embessy
Suez: live telefon report - Main square under protesters control
Cairo: live-pictures - a group of some 30 riot-police + 20 plain cloth midaged men with clubs, three teargas guns visible - Firing teargas
[AlJazeera pushing pretty much pro-protesters]
Cairo: live pictures - again teargas towards the Hilton hotel /next door to AJ studio) to which some protesters had fled - Dark smoke from tires(?) burning
Alexandria: live telephon report: Some 10 different protests with several hundred each - Reporter saw protester help wounded riot police - Reporter told by eyewitness of dead girl
Protesters appear to be all kind of people - Women, men, even an few children
Cairo: live - some people wounded by teargas canisters - civil cloth police taking some away - hitting single protesters
Cairo: live - quite intense clashes of several thousands live watched from AJ studio building - intense use of teargas - police retreating and re-attacking, demonstrators retreat re-attack
14:00 GMT
Suez: Video shows police lines retreat from some 5,000 protesters
Suez: Reporter says a main police station was surrounded, prisoners freed, now burning
Suez: Reporter says Suez had lots of police reinforcement after violent protest yesterday
13:40 GMT
Ayman Nour, one of the opposition figueres, in hospital after having been hit in the head by a stone. His son comes to AlJazeerah and reports live of plaincloth thugs, not police, fighting for the government.
Report of ElBaradei under government siege in a mosque in Giza.
There are reports of protest in additional cities.
AlJazeerah has live reports from Suez, Alexandria and Cairo.
Posted by b on January 28, 2011 at 14:01 UTC | Permalink | Comments (32)
Egypt's Protests
Demonstrations are planned in Egypt after today's Friday prayers. The Mubarak dictatorship has forbidden all protest so street battles are to be expected. Over night security forces arrested many of the protest and Muslim Brotherhood leaders.
Former IAEA boss El Baradei has returned to Egypt and wants to take charge. Read his op-ed in Newsweek. I do not believe that he has yet the power he feels he has. He should watch out for a single bullet coming towards him.
The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in Egypt in 1928, will have the decisive role in the demonstrations today and their likely brutal takedown. If the Brotherhood mobilizes its followers, as it has announced to do, the masses can overwhelm the security forces. Otherwise, ... who knows?
Egypt is now mostly disconnected from the Internets just 15 minutes after AP published this video of a man getting shot by police forces. Send by someone in Cairo:
"The government can take away my freedom, but if they take away my internet porn, they're going down."
The U.S. has taken the side of Mubarak with Vice President Biden making unmistakeably clear that for Washington the interests of the Zionist is the most important issue:
“Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things. And he’s been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing relationship with Israel,” the vice president said. “And I think that it would be – I would not refer to him as a dictator."
The Egyptian military has so far stayed neutral. If it would take sides against Mubarak he would be done with. The Egyptian chief of staff is currently in Washington on pre-planned annual meeting. In December some Wikileaks cable were made public that show some general U.S. misgivings about the Egyptian military. That might have set a not too bright background for any influence Washington now tries to take on it.
For background about the protests and how they evolved from the death of Khaled Said watch this Time video.
Posted by b on January 28, 2011 at 7:33 UTC | Permalink | Comments (11)
U.S. Education Is Not The Real Problem
by Cynthia
lifted from a comment
President Obama mentioned in his State of the Union Address that we can educate our way back into prosperity. This is probably true if you assume that the more educated you are, the more money you make. But this assumption is wrong.
Making money in America has little to do with how well educated you are. It mostly has to do with how well connected you are, including how good you are at ripping people off and getting away with it. Do a quick background check on all the people that have struck it rich in our rent-seeking society and you’ll have little doubt that I am wrong on this.
I suppose that if we return to a time when our society placed more value on making productive things like cars and other industrial products than on making non-productive things like credit default swaps and other financial products, we’ll see more people striking it rich by being well educated and highly skilled at doing productive work rather than by being well connected and highly skilled at doing unproductive work, particularly unproductive work that’s geared towards ripping people off.
But I don’t see any of this happening until we face up to the fact that economic power is shifting to China not because our workers are less skilled and less educated than their Chinese counterparts, but because our well-connected, rip-off artists from the FIRE economy (i.e., Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate) are better than their Chinese counterparts at turning their own country into a safe haven for rent-seeking parasites.
Posted by b on January 27, 2011 at 18:54 UTC | Permalink | Comments (12)
U.S. Wants Afghanistan To Copy Guantanamo
The U.S. military in Afghanistan wants the Afghan government to take over indefinite detentions of "suspected insurgents" it has captured in Afghanistan. To this purpose it is pressing the Afghan government to change the country's laws outside of the normal process.
The U.S. government had been reluctant to transfer more authority over detained insurgents to the Afghan government because of concern that many would be released if they were tried in criminal courts.
Now there is a real danger. Afghan courts could actually release people from jail when the legal process finds that they have done nothing criminal. That can't let be.
"We've told them we can't transfer detainee operations to you without the proper framework," said a U.S. official familiar with the process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.
Do I smell blackmail? "We will not transfer of free your incarcerated sons to you unless you guarantee that they will NOT receive due process!"
Unlike the United States, Aghanistan is a country with laws that do not allow indefinite detentions without trial. The Afghan government, to get control over Afghans the U.S. has captured, will therefore have to change its laws. There is of course the tiny problem of Afghanistan being, at least nominal, a democracy where laws are enacted by a parliament.
Although U.S. officials had hoped that the Afghan changes would be spelled out in a presidential decree and promulgated before parliament convened - under Afghan law, the president can make laws by fiat when the legislature is in recess - a draft decree has yet to reach Karzai.
So they hoped to circumvent the parliament. How is that for 'democracy promotion' the Obama administration claims to favor?
U.S. and Afghan officials say the legal basis for continuing the detentions derives from Additional Protocol Two to the Geneva Conventions.
Afghanistan has signed the AP2, but the U.S. has not. If indeed the AP2 is the required legal basis for indefinite detention, one wonders what legal basis is there for the U.S. military to currently indefinitely detain "suspected insurgents" Afghans.
As this sorry story makes clear, the U.S. does neither care for due process in Afghanistan, nor for any democratic procedures, nor for any real rule of law.
In that it wants Afghanistan to be just like itself.
Posted by b on January 27, 2011 at 8:19 UTC | Permalink | Comments (0)
WaPo Promotes White House 'Democracy' Spin
The Washington Post claims: As Arabs protest, Obama administration offers assertive support. I do not see much of real support there but for the usual empty words the Obama administration is now somewhat famous for.
Aside from that I need some help with this scaremongering paragraph:
Such an approach comes with a degree of risk in the region, where democratic reforms have often empowered well-organized Islamist movements at odds with U.S. objectives.
Which country in the Middle East, besides Iran, had "democratic reforms" which "empowered well-organized Islamist movements"?
I am not aware of even one. Any ideas which countries the writers where thinking of?
A bit later the authors claim:
Polls show U.S. popularity rising in many Arab countries since Obama took office and falling in a smaller number of others.
The latest Middle East poll by Brookings/Zogby, done in July 2010, found:
Early in the Obama administration, in April and May 2009, 51% of the respondents in the six countries expressed optimism about American policy in the Middle East. In the 2010 poll, only 16% were hopeful, while a majority - 63% - was discouraged.
The poll details (pdf) show "unfavorable" ratings for the U.S., mostly unchanged from 2008, at 85%. How is that a sign of "rising popularity"?
Further on:
So far, at least, the demonstrations in Egypt and Tunisia have not featured anti-American rhetoric or been shaped by political Islam.
Hmm ...
Tunis, January 26 2011
The whole piece reads like White House spin dictated by some "administration official" written down by some stenographers without any factchecking or sense for reality.
Doesn't democracy, and its promotion, necessitate a free press?
Posted by b on January 27, 2011 at 7:36 UTC | Permalink | Comments (12)
A Few Links and Open Thread
A Guardian reporter was picked up by the Egyptian police yesterday, but they didn't take away his dictaphone. The recordings make for a remarkable report: Egypt protests: 'We ran a gauntlet of officers beating us with sticks'
Palestine papers reveal MI6 drew up plan for crackdown on Hamas
A Palestinian journalist about the Palestine Papers and criticism of Palestinians from the outside: Who says there's no coordination? - Maan
Why is the Telegraph the only one to carry this story? Kyrgyzstan president accuses US fuel supplier of trying to corrupt her son
Posted by b on January 26, 2011 at 17:57 UTC | Permalink | Comments (38)
Lebanon - What Changed?
Hizbullah has only 12 seats in the Lebanese parliament, out of some 128. It's Christian allies have more. To somehow say that the recent change in the Lebanese government was Hizbullah's deed is a bit comical. The decicive votes for the democratic government change came from Jumblatt's "progressive" party.
A billionaire Sunni "March 14" prime minister, who is friends with the Syrians and Saudis and was backed by Hizbullah parliament and cabinet members, has been replaced by a billionaire Sunni "March 14" prime minister, who is friends with the Syrians and Saudis and is backed by Hizbullah parliament and cabinet members,.
mini-Hariri was incompetent, I don't know if Mikati is any better. Elias at Qifa Nabqi says he is.
mini-Hariri boosted that he made Mikati prime minister in 2005. Five years later Nasrallah can claim the same.
Some Sunni Salafists are rioting in the streets.
Did anything really change in Lebanon?
Not in my view.
That of course that doesn't keep pathetic militarist propaganda folks like Exum from claiming that this somehow gives Israel a right to now attack all of Lebanon.
No change there either.
Posted by b on January 25, 2011 at 19:26 UTC | Permalink | Comments (5)
The Israeli Government Opinion On Law
I was the Minister of Justice. I am a lawyer…But I am against law -- international law in particular. Law in general.
If we want to make the agreement smaller, can we just drop some of these issues? Like international law, this will make the agreements easier.
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Nov 13, 2007
Unlike Obama, she at least admits it.
Posted by b on January 25, 2011 at 17:42 UTC | Permalink | Comments (3)
'China's Growing Military' - NOT!
Jordan D'Amato is a research associate for the New America Foundation. He has a piece up at The Washington Note about President Hu visit to Washington:
[China] is the second biggest economy in the world, it has the fastest growing military, and it holds a huge share of the US national debt.
The fastest growing military?
Well, well, according to Janes Defense Weekly (found here and here, see also here) the growth of China's military is negative:
JDW 09-Oct-2009 *PLA cuts manpower to modernise capabilities: “China is preparing to accelerate the downsizing of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) by slashing its total force strength by up to 700,000 as the country strives to modernise its military capabilities. China’s armed forces consist of 2.185 million personnel, with the army accounting for 1.6 million of these. In September the PLA’s own news service reported that the army faced reductions to help fund increases in the air force, navy and the Second Artillery Force, which operates China’s … – 2009/10/09 00:00:00″
After his false assertion on China's military Mr. D'Amato continues:
However, when the United States is making policy, it needs to be based on facts, not feelings.
Indeed. And that is exactly why no one should ever ask Mr. D'Amato for any policy advice.
Posted by b on January 25, 2011 at 14:50 UTC | Permalink | Comments (7)
So Many Keys ...
... to appoint Lebanon's next prime minister, effectively ending nearly six years of rule by Western-backed leaders and prompting the United States to warn it could cut off aid to this key Arab nation.
Hezbollah-backed candidate in line to become Lebanon's new prime minister
Migration, in short, works as a safety-valve that helps to forestall any prospect of major change in this key Arab nation.
Dreaming of Spain: migration and Morocco
Sunday's meeting between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and President Bush at his Texas ranch serves as a reminder of America's deep involvement in this other key Arab nation.
How Has Egypt Spent $50 Billion in U.S. Aid?
It has been usual to explain the chaos and looting in Baghdad, the destruction of infrastructure, ministries, museums and the national library and archives, as caused by a failure of Rumsfeld's planning. But the evidence is this was at least in part a mask for the destruction of the collective memory and modern state of a key Arab nation
Shock, awe and Hobbes have backfired on America's neocons
The potential gains from the alliance are obvious. First and foremost, it would further isolate Iran and bring a key Arab nation under U.S. influence.
Playing the Syria Card
Last night America bowed to the Saudi reservations and announced it would do without Saudi air bases to launch any air attacks on Iraqi targets. The failure to win the support of such a key Arab nation came despite diplomatic missions by Foreign Secretary Robin Cook and U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to bring it into line.
Saudi boycott shakes plan to strike Saddam
Posted by b on January 25, 2011 at 8:46 UTC | Permalink | Comments (5)
Opinion Change: War On Iran Is Indeed The Plan
Until today I was convinced that the U.S. under Obama would not attack Iran. The move would be irrational as the consequences would be too severe. But today the Leverett's at their blog Race For Iran point to a conference in Washington D.C., organized by the mercenary company Executive Action LLC in support of the anti-Iranian marxist terror cult MEK.
Several speakers there argue for attacking Iran. One of them is Gen. James Jones, until recently National Security Adviser in the Obama administration. The way he explains the Obama administration policy towards Iran makes it clear that the intend and logic conclusion from this policy is indeed an all out military attack on Iran.
You can see Jones' seventeen minute long talk in this video starting at 1:15h.
In it Jones says all the same scary stuff that was said about Saddam Hussein before the war on Iraq. That war was, as again confirmed in the Palestine papers today, for the benefit of Israel:
Secretary Rice inserted, "At this time there is no threat from the east [to Israel] because our forces are in Iraq and will stay there for a long time." Chief Palestinian Authority negotiator Saeb Erekat added, "For a very, very long time."
Jones' in his talk is arguing that Iran could give a nuclear bomb to some terrorist organization. Exactly the same nonsense was said about Saddam's Iraq.
But just like Iraq, Iran does not have any nuclear weapons nor does it want any. Predictions that Iran will have a nuclear weapon "in three years" have been made about every year since at least 1984. All have been false and untrue just like today's predictions about Iran's "nuclear weapons program" are.
What Jones confirms is that the Obama administration's policy on Iran, like most other Obama policies, is simply a continuation of the Bush policy. There is no change at all and with regards to Iran the policy was and is directed to a military solution.
What might hold back the Obama administration is a recent series of events in the Middle East which all point to a harsh decline in U.S. standing there.
The people in Tunesia threw out their U.S. supported and Israel friendly dictator setting an important example. In Lebanon the opposition is interrupting the U.S. plans for the Special Tribunal to viably accuse Iran and Syria. The Palestine Papers expose the hollowness of the "peace process" and the Abbas regime. Muqtada Al-Sadr's support for the new Maliki government in Iraq means the U.S. military will have to leave. The unwillingness to support Karzai's peace talk attempts with the resistance in Afghanistan will pull the U.S. deeper into the maelstrom there.
Thinking rational it seems unlikely that with all these troubles, add in additional Wikileaks and the unsolved economic problems, Obama would think of starting another war. But tossing over the Middle East chess board plus inducing another patriotic wave for war may also be seen as the easiest short term way out of these problems.
After all, Obama does not stand for anything. He will do whatever gets him reelected. If he thinks what he needs is a war on Iran, and from Jones' talk it is obvious that war is indeed the plan, he will launch it.
Posted by b on January 24, 2011 at 19:06 UTC | Permalink | Comments (23)
The Palestine Papers
The Palestine Papers - Aljazeerah
Secret papers reveal slow death of Middle East peace process - Guardian
Abbas and his goons gave away more than they can give away. That still wasn't enough for the Israeli Jews and their U.S. government advocates. They want it all - and even more. Including the dome which they want to tear down to build their third temple.
The publishing of these papers marks the end of the two state solution and the end of the Abbas and PLO regime. There will be more wars.
Posted by b on January 24, 2011 at 8:15 UTC | Permalink | Comments (12)
Some Links - Jan 22
Why China Does Capitalism Better than the U.S. - Tony Karon
EU foreign policy across Arab world faces upheaval - Deutsche Welle
The Obama/Bush Foreign Policies: Why Can't America Change? - Seymour Hersh Doha speech transcript - part 1
I don't know how to describe Obama, as somebody who's now in office for two years. Just when we needed an angry black man, we didn't get one. He has a nice dog.
Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World - Nir Rosen in a talk about his book - video (1:15h) - recommended
Use as open thread ...
Posted by b on January 22, 2011 at 19:22 UTC | Permalink | Comments (27)
"What sin did the cow commit?"
Razing villages to save them is a war crime and the Afghans are rightly "extremly angry" about this. General Petraeus excuse, "the Taliban made me do it!", is not valid. It only shows that his campaign is failing. The combatant that can make the other side do something obviously still has the initiative.
In this BBC video we find evidence for additional war crimes being committed by the Marines in Sangin, Helmand. A Marine sniper is shooting at and killing an unarmed person because that same person had earlier be seen "talking on a radio". With no phones in Sangin district, there are good reasons for civilians to use radios. Talking into a radio does not prove any intend to harm anyone. As the BBC describes the scene:
"Come on, come out come and play," said the Marine sniper.He spoke as he looked through his telescopic sight at a Taliban "spotter" who had just jumped behind a wall some 800m away. The man was not armed but was talking into a radio.
"Got P-I-D [positive identification]," said the sniper. "Cleared to engage." There was the suppressed crack of a silenced sniper round. The man fell to the ground.
"Enemy KIA (killed in action). Doin' the dead man dance."
"Good shooting, bro," came the reply.
It was the 50th kill for this sniper team.
In the video the scene is described the important detail somewhat differently:
[narrator] They are about to kill a man identified as a Taliban spotter.
...[the killing]..
[narrator] He wasn't armed. How did they know he wasn't a civilian?
[sniper:] He was talking on a radio and eh then he came back out and presented himself trying to be inconspicuous and that's when we dropped him.
As the distance to the man was some 800 meters, it is unlikely that he even knew that the snipers were there.
In the following scene at a side of a field a stash of freshly harvested corn, several feet high, is waiting to be brought in. The Marines burn it down:
They burn piles of corn, so that the Taliban can't hide weapons there. That isn't popular ...
Burning the food the people in Sangin grow to survive is a scorched earth policy. When the Nazis did this in Russia, it was a war crime. What is it when the Marines do it in Sangin?
But again and again, the Marines come across locals who say that a brother, a son or a cousin has been shot by the international forces.
"We don't want your help," said a group of elders going to pray for a relative who had been killed. They refused the offer of compensation from the platoon's lieutenant.
"We don't want your money. You shouldn't kill us. You shouldn't destroy our property. You even shot one of my cows yesterday. What sin did the cow commit?"
Posted by b on January 22, 2011 at 14:02 UTC | Permalink | Comments (7)
Blowing Up The Karzai Government ... And Afghanistan
The past September parliament elections in Afghanistan were fraudulent. The Independent Election Commission threw out one fourth of the votes and in a not-transparent way declared some 249 candidates as valid winners. In addition to the rampant and obvious fraud many Pashtuns in the south and east could not or would not vote at all.
The result is a very skewed political body with some districts, though mostly Sunni and Pashtun, only represented by Shia Hazara candidates or many not represented at all. The "western" occupation governments wanted to pamper over the problem and accepted and even lauded the results.
But Karzai could not accept them. He wants to make peace with the Taliban and prevent a new all out civil war. That demands a parliament which at least somewhat represents the Pashtun population, the biggest single group in Afghanistan, and supports his peace efforts. Instead he was now confronted with a future parliament with a non-Pashtun majority that would likely not agree to any compromise with the resistance.
In December Karzai, with the help of the Afghan Supreme Court (something U.S. media tend not to mention), created a Special Court to again look into the fraud issues. Two days ago and with the parliament ready to be inaugurated on Sunday, the Special Court requested another month of investigation time, asked to postpone the inauguration and even hinted towards new elections.
While the candidates who had "lost" where happy with this, the candidates that had "won" did not like these prospects. They threaten to inaugurate themselves anyway.
Unfortunately the "western" forces seem to support them:
"Enough is enough. What Karzai is doing is clearly illegal," a senior diplomat said.Mr. Karzai decided Wednesday to postpone the inauguration by a month to give a special court, which he had created, more time to investigate election-fraud allegations.
The newly elected lawmakers argue that the court is unconstitutional, a view shared by Afghan election authorities and diplomats in the U.S.-led coalition.
(Please notice that the Wall Street Journal and the "senior diplomat" do not mention the Supreme Court which has even named the judges for the Special Court. Do legal opinions of foreign diplomats have a higher standing than those of the Afghan Supreme Court judges?)
Several Western envoys, including U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura, have indicated they planned to attend the inauguration, diplomats involved in the meeting in Kabul Thursday said. Doing so would recognize the new parliament and be a blow to Mr. Karzai."This is a litmus test for the international community," one ambassador said. "Karzai believes he can freely do what he wants, but Sunday will be a wakeup call."
Actually the "international community" failed the litmus test when it agreed to the fraudulent election results.
But I agree with the "wakeup call" designation.
Seating a parliament that in no way represents major parts of the population will be the wakeup call for many more people to join the resistance against the illegal government. The candidates who "lost", with some quite powerful folks beyond them, will certainly seek revenge for their loss of honor. Having lost his face Karzai may well step down and go into exile. Forget any move towards peace.
That will of course suit Petraeus and others who want to prolong the war as much as possible.
Posted by b on January 21, 2011 at 17:22 UTC | Permalink | Comments (7)