WikiLeaks is becoming a cultural phenomenon :-).

Art imitating life: Funky new ad puts a spin on personal hygiene and politics

American commanders say their plan in the next few years is to kill large numbers of insurgents in the border region — the military refers to it as “degrading the Taliban” — and at the same time build up the Afghan National Army to the point that the Afghans can at least contain an insurgency still supported by Pakistan.
Intelligence Reports Offer Dim View of Afghan War, NYT, Dec 15

—

Thus, the administration escalated in response to North Vietnamese Taliban actions. Its objective was to inflict a level of pain on the North Vietnamese Taliban that was sufficient to make them bargain in earnest. Thus Vietnam Afghanistan became a war of attrition. Johnson Obama would regularly characterize his decisions as taking the middle ground. He would not "pull out" as the "doves" and "nervous Nellies" suggested nor would he go "all out" as the "hawkish" military advisors recommended.

Cont. reading: Attrition Warfare

What is the cause of the recent flare up of tensions between the two Koreas?

One of my theory says that this is an Obama administration ploy to put pressure on China. This to achieve a Yuan revaluation that in the end is hoped to lower the U.S. trade deficit and revive its economy.

The economic part of this would unlikely work as hoped for. When Japan was pressed in the 1980s to increase the value of the Yen the U.S. trade deficit with Japan widened.

But besides that any tensions, even artificial ones, in the area are extremely dangerous as both Koreas are not under real control of their hegemonic overlords and things may just get out of hand with very serious consequences. The North, relying on a self sustenance ideology (juche), may not respect any restraining order it gets from Beijing and the very hawkish South Korean president Lee Myung-bak may escalate any situation without first asking for Washington's okay.

After his election Lee Myung-bak stopped nearly all cooperation and agreements with the North. While the "western" tale says that the South Korean ship Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean submarine I, like the Russians, have serious doubt that this is what really happened. The recent artillery exchange between the North and the South came after not necessarily helpful firing of South Korean artillery very near to the northern border. Are we sure that none of those first barrage rounds actually landed in North Korean territory?

Currently we are seeing a strong military buildup. The U.S. is deploying Joint STAR ground surveillance planes. The aircraft carrier group around the USS George Washington is deployed to the south-west of Korea while the carrier group of the USS Ronald Reagan is on its way to the area. Recently the so far biggest ever U.S. navy maneuver with the Japanese navy was immediately followed by one with the South Korean navy. The U.S. air force now transfers 30,000 tons of jet fuel from Japan to South Korea while the U.S. army is pre-positioning additional equipment in South Korea. South Korea is holding a nationwide emergency drill.

While that all may be part of some show Russia alerting its far-east forces is something different.

The current propaganda from the North has more bluster than usual:

A second Korean War would not fail to disappoint Western experts who wish to see Kim Jong-eun given an opportunity to prove his unprecedented military genius. He would preside over the evaporation of the world's sole superpower in the first thermonuclear exchange ever fought on the spaceship Earth.

That would certainly not happen. But any escalation would likely include a serious land war which South Korea and the U.S. may well "win" in the first few days, but in which any fast "victory" would immediately degrade into a protracted guerrilla war with China feeding whatever may be needed to its North Korean allies to keep the U.S. away from its borders.

Obama must pull the South Koreans back or this might explode very violently.

The more secretive or unjust an organization is, the more leaks induce fear and paranoia in its leadership and planning coterie. This must result in minimization of efficient internal communications mechanisms (an increase in cognitive “secrecy tax”) and consequent system-wide cognitive decline resulting in decreased ability to hold onto power as the environment demands adaption.
Julian Assange: The non linear effects of leaks on unjust systems of governance, Dec 31, 2006 (pdf) via

The U.S. Air Force just cyber-defeated itself by falling into the trap andby decreasing the information available for its operators:

The Air Force is blocking computer access to The New York Times and other media sites that published sensitive diplomatic documents released by the Internet site WikiLeaks, a spokeswoman said Tuesday.
…
Tones said the New York Times is the only major U.S. newspaper included in the ban. Others include Der Spiegel in Germany, the Guardian in Britain and Le Monde in France.

Tones said that the 24th Air Force routinely blocks network access to websites that host inappropriate material, including classified information such as that released by WikiLeaks. Any computer on the Air Force network is now unable to link to the sites.

Without access to major world media the Air Force will be unable to assess the political implication of its operations. Air Force actors in contact with allies as well as adversaries will now have less knowledge then their contacts. This will lead to misjudgments. It also allows foreign actors to manipulate Air Force personal.

Fine with me. Such utter silliness requires punishment.

Harping about "anti-semitism" and the "Iranian threat" pays very, very well:
How much do U.S. Jewish leaders make? – Haaretz
The expiration of the 'Peace Process': Where now for the Middle East? – Alastair Crooke/FP

How Holbrooke Lied His Way into a War – Sam Husseini
200,000 Skeletons in Richard Holbrooke's Closet – Dissident Voice
Holbrooke failed in Afghanistan, say analysts – Pajhwok
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan about the Sudden Death of Holbrooke – The Unjust Media

On how the U.S. tortured him My Life With The Taliban: An Excerpt – Abdul Salam Zaeef/ICH
Spot-on  David Petraeus – Hero for our Times – Michael Brenner/National Journal

Overheard in Kabul:

Afghan governor: "OK, I will decrease corruption but, how much are you going to pay me for that?"
NATO official: "Will a million do?"

No cable released by WikiLeaks in the last 36 hours. Why?

WikiLeaks cables: Mervyn King plotted banks bailout by four cash-rich nations – Guardian

Six months before the world financial crisis reached its peak, forcing taxpayers to rescue collapsing financial institutions, King told US officials in London that the UK, US, Switzerland and Japan could jointly enable a multibillion-pound cash injection into global banks, overriding the "dysfunctional" G7 nations.

About time – someone takes on Krugman: Reconsidering Japan and Reconsidering Paul Krugman – TruthOut

Sane people: An Open Letter to President Obama – Afghanistan: Call To Reason

$52bn of American aid and still Afghans are dying of starvation – Independent

Former U.S. envoy in Afghanistan worried about insurgent havens in Pakistan – WaPo

He noted that the mayor of Kandahar offered to hire local workers to build roads for a quarter of what USAID was paying an international engineering firm, but the agency has been reluctant to provide funds directly to local officials because it is concerned about waste and corruption. "There's no way in the world that the Afghans could steal as much as we waste," he said.

Said better – "… could steal as much as much as the U.S. "contractors" are stealing."

No loss for mankind: Richard Holbrooke, veteran US diplomat dies aged 69

Annals of stupid headline writing: Ahmadinejad wields axe to cement his position – Independent

Pouring cement with an axe?

U.S. diplomacy and the attack on Kuwait: Blinkered View of Iraq – Diplomats Were Misled by Saddam's 'Cordial' Manner – Der Spiegel

The "misled" attribut is somewhat dubious.

The El-Masri Cable – Harpers

Though this cable is framed in typically diplomatic politesse, the underlying message seems clear: it was a demand that Chancellor Merkel’s government intervene to block the criminal investigation, coupled with a threat of negative consequences if it failed to do so.

The puppet that doesn't dance as the empire think it is supposed to do – As U.S. assesses Afghan war, Karzai a question mark Key sentence:

Skeptics of the strategy contend his actions, particularly in the six months since the Obama administration started to embrace him as a partner, demonstrate that he cannot be rehabilitated.

So in the eyes of the empire Karzai is criminal, addicted or ill and therefore in need of "rehabilitation"?

Billmon and I have written quite a bit about the Lincoln Group. A shop the U.S. military paid to produce hidden propaganda in Iraq and elsewhere. Walter Pincus points out that the Lincoln Group is still in that business: Pentagon forced to extend Iraq contracts that are under appeal

Central Command announced last week it had to extend the Fulcra contract for six months because to "award to any other source would result in unacceptable delays and negatively impact the ability" of U.S. forces in Iraq to carry on "all aspects of media communications activities," according to the paper justifying the decision.

Under the contract, which it has had for more than three years, Fulcra not only works directly with the Iraq government spokesman and ministers at the Defense and Interior ministries, but also carries out monitoring of media in Iraq, plans strategic messaging, and manages web materials for English and Arabic sites supporting the Iraq command. Fulcra is the new name for the Lincoln Group, which as a Pentagon contractor in 2005 was found to have paid Iraqi newspapers to print stories written by American soldiers or its employees.

The Lincoln Group propaganda shop changed its name to Iraqex, then to Fulkra and, something Pincus missed, is now running as Strategic Social. Years ago Billmon wrote about black funding for the GOP through DOD contracts with the Lincoln Group.

The Fed and the role of TARP – The Invisible Bailout – A Tiny Revolution

Venezuelan Archbishop Baltazar Porras, head of the council of Catholic bishops of Venezuela, told Ambassador January 6 the USG ought to be more outspoken in its criticism of Hugo Chavez. Porras urged more international community involvement to contain Chavez's regional aspirations, though he admitted that political will to do so is minimal. He asserted that Chavez will continue to dismantle democratic civil society such as organized labor, the business sector, and the church.
ARCHBISHOP URGES MORE USG CRITICISM OF CHAVEZ

Since when is the catholic church "democratic civil society"? Asked differently, who elected the Archbishop?

Two snapshots taken yesterday while sitting at my desk:

bigger

Cont. reading: View From My Window

Via Xymphora and The Arabist we find one Brian Whitaker who asks Wikileaks: Where are the Israel documents? and claims:

[I]t seems that all we’re getting is incidental references to Israel in cables from the US embassies in other countries.

I’ve heard people voicing suspicions about this. Have the Israel cables been suppressed, they ask.

The answer, apparently, is no. There’s little or nothing from Israel in the 250,000 or so documents – and the explanation, I’m told by someone who ought to know, is very simple.

Israel, in the eyes of the US diplomats, is not a normal country like any other and so it’s not dealt with in the normal way. Sensitive documents from Israel go through different channels – to the White House rather than the State Department – and are therefore not among the batch leaked to Julian Assange.

This is, apperently, nonsense.

Just check the graph at the bottom of the WikiLeaks page partly shown below.

According to this graph the leaks include some 3,600 cables from the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv with 22 of those published so far. Some of the 8,000 cables from the Secretary of State, about 80 of which have been published, certainly also relate in one form or another to Israel.

As for why Brian Whitaker, who as the Middle East editor of The Guardian’s Comment is Free section certainly has access to all cables, falsely asserts – in fact is lying about – , that there is “little or nothing from Israel” in the cable hive, we do not know.

Could it be that he just wants to deceive from the fact that he and his paper are not publishing them?

Is he, like Reza Esfandiari asserts, a “bigoted Islamophobe” and “neoimperial” and represents a mind that is “no different from the neoconservative ideology in the United States” and a Zionist?

I do not know Whitaker or his mind. But I do know that he is obviously wrong in his “explanation” of why he have seen so few Cablegate stories about Israel. This while he has direct access to information that refutes that “explanation”.

Arnold Evans analyses the current publishing process of Cablegate and concludes:

What we are left with is a process that appears to be a release of 250,000 documents but actually is the major Western news organizations, led by the New York Times, releasing small numbers of documents that they select in coordination with the US government and using the wikileaks name to generate interest.

To me that inherent bias of the releases so far is a much better explanation of what is really happening here than Whitaker’s obviously false assertion.

NEW DELHI: External affairs minister SM Krishna reacted angrily to reports that the Indian ambassador to the United States, Meera Shankar, was body-searched by security officials at the Jackson-Evers International Airport, in Mississippi, recently.
US security humiliates Indian envoy again for wearing a saree

Meanwhile, in Waziristan, …

Cont. reading: Look Who’s Laughing

In September 2008 Somali pirates captured the M/V Faina, a ship with 33 tanks plus various arms and ammunition on board and on its way to Mobasa, Kenia. While the Kenian government claimed that those weapons were for its own army, it was quite clear that these were for South Sudan. MoA reader B real followed the story starting with this comment. As I pointed in correcting an LA Times article, such weapon transfer to southern Sudan was illegal.

The U.S. got immediately involved and as we can see from WikiLeaks cable releases it did know from the very beginning not only what was happening but it helped along to bring the weapons to Kenia and eventuall to southern Sudan.

A cable send by the State Department on September 28 remarks:

S) As part of a contract signed between Ukraine and the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement/Army in December 2006, the vessel is believed to be carrying the following cargo intended for transshipment to southern Sudan:
— 33 T-72 tanks, with spare parts
— 42 ZPU-4 rolling anti-aircraft guns
— 36 RPG-7v
— 6 BM-27 Self propelled multiple rocket launchers
— 13,000 125mm rounds of ammunition (T-72)

(Note: Astonishing here is the amount of ammunition. The combat load for one T-72 is 44 125mm grenades. Those 13,000 rounds would be nearly 300 combat loads per tank! In an equal tank on tank fight one would, on average, not expect a tank to survive long enough to dispense its full combat load. At a price of more than $1,000-$2,000 per round this "overinvestment" in ammunition is very, very odd. We noted here the German reports of transfers of another hundred tanks but even with those included the ammunition number is still  widely off the mark. How many tanks does the South Sudan Liberation Army really have?)

Another cable from October 2 adds:

(S-NF) This is not the first time a T-72 shipment to South Sudan has been publicly diverted. In mid-February, the Government of Kenya was reported as "seizing" a shipment of tanks bound for the Sudan People's Liberation Army as it violated the 2003 Comprehensive Peace Agreement to end Sudan's civil war. The "seizure" occurred when Kenya's own security situation was still precarious given the post-election crisis. The tanks were ultimately released and proceeded to Sudan, and the cargo currently aboard the M/V Faina was meant to complete the tank sale.

So the U.S. was well aware of the sale as well as its illegality but after the ship was released by the pirates in February 2009 its navy escorted the Faina into Mombasa harbour.

To calm down the media and the Kenian parliament on the issue the weapons first stayed in Kenia but the Bush administration still wanted the weapons transferred to southern Sudan.

But then the administration changed and the Obama administration ordered that those weapons shall not be transferred. The U.S. ambassador to Kenia, Ranneberger, who was part in creating the deal under Bush in the first place, was now suddenly tasked to deliver a demarche to Nairobi demanding a transfer hold. The Kenian government was furious about this and Ranneberger embarrassed. In December he cabled to Washington:

The GOK is understandably confused, as transfer of these tanks, in their view, dove-tailed with the goals of the United States to implement the CPA by converting the SPLA from a guerrilla force to a small conventional force capable of defending Juba (but not take Khartoum), able to integrate with a national force, and able to counterbalance the significant military capacity of Khartoum.

Ranneberger then asks Washington to reconsider and to let Kenia transfer the weapons.

The weapons are now believed to be in southern Sudan, so much for Change, and will be used in the next civil war in Sudan that will likely erupt in January after the north-south partition referendum.

Your news and views …

Back in June 2009, shortly before I interrupted my blogging career, we had some fierce discussion about the election results in Iran. My conclusion in the end was that there had been no fraud and that the protests and riots were just the reaction of some disappointed well-off folks from north Tehran, likely with incitement and support from outside of Iran.

Before the election there was a poll by the New America Foundation which pointed (pdf) to a 2 to 1 Ahmedinejad lead over Moussavi and his "Green Movement". According to the official Iranian numbers Ahmedinejad did get about 60% of all votes. In September 2009 a World Public Opinion.org poll found that indeed some 60% of all Iranians claimed to have voted for Ahmedinejad, but some people have doubted those poll results. But just release poll by the International Peace Institute confirms the numbers:

The leaders of Iran’s opposition Green Movement are favored by roughly one-third of Iranians, the poll found, similar to their results in the 2009 Iranian presidential election. Although there were widespread charges of fraud, all the post-election polls show that around 60% of the people who were interviewed say that they voted for Ahmadinejad in 2009, close to the official and much-disputed figures.

I guess that settles the discussion.

But what we do not know yet is who and how the "western" powers incited the "Green Movement". We have a hint from a Haaretz article which ran on June 1 2009 before(!) the elections.

Israeli diplomats told to take offensive in PR war against Iran

Organizing demonstrations in front of Iranian consulates worldwide, staging mock stonings and hangings in public, and launching a massive media campaign against Iran – these are just some of the steps Israeli diplomats have been told to take in the coming weeks. The goal, according to a senior Foreign Ministry official, is "to show the world that Iran is not a Western democracy" in the run-up to the country's presidential election on June 12.

That Israeli demonization campaign was certainly successful. But I am sure that Israel was not the only "western" government working on this project. I wonder if the leaks from Cablegate, less than 0.5% of which have been published so far, will give us some more information on this.

The more secretive or unjust an organization is, the more leaks induce fear and paranoia in its leadership and planning coterie. This must result in minimization of efficient internal communications mechanisms (an increase in cognitive “secrecy tax”) and consequent system-wide cognitive decline resulting in decreased ability to hold onto power as the environment demands adaption.
Julian Assange: The non linear effects of leaks on unjust systems of governance, Dec 31, 2006 (pdf) via

We can now observe this effect. As Steven Aftergood reports:

The Library of Congress confirmed on Friday that it had blocked access from all Library computers to the Wikileaks web site in order to prevent unauthorized downloading of classified records such as those in the large cache of diplomatic cables that Wikileaks began to publish on November 28.

Since the Congressional Research Service is a component of the Library, this means that CRS researchers will be unable to access or to cite the leaked materials in their research reports to Congress. Several current and former CRS analysts expressed perplexity and dismay about the move, and they said it could undermine the institution’s research activities.

The U.S. government regards the leaked cables as still secret material and has forbidden access to it from the regular government networks. This leads to the predicted cognitive decline as the Congressional Research Service is not allowed to include the information therein into its analysis.

The CRS is now asking the relevant Congress committees how it is supposed to handle this. But how are the committee members to determine that while they are not allowed to access the material in question?

This is of course only a small problem that the U.S. government will eventually solve, likely by ignoring its own rules. But it perfectly fits the point Assange was making.

We can be sure that there will similar blockades of other internal U.S. government functions which will have bigger effects and induce a much bigger "secrecy tax".

While totally different in all other aspects there is a basic U.S. reflex Wikileaks as well as the 9/11 bombers put their bets on, the overreaction to a very limited "threat".

Like its overreaction to a the 9/11 attack the U.S. government does and will overreact to the leaks. This will be very costly and in the end may well result in the destruction of the system.

Update

Not really related to the heart of this post, but important to the bigger scheme: As of the legal implications of the Cablegate leaks for WikiLeaks and Assange there is little the U.S. can do and likely little it will, in the end, do. A friend of MoA has obtained the Congressional Research Service report on the legal questions regarding WikiLeaks and reading it there seems to be only a very small chance that any legal strategy of punishing WikiLeaks or Assange would succeed: CRS Report: Criminal Prohibitions on the Publication of Classified Defense Information (Dec. 6, pdf).

Original (slightly corrected) post on the alleged Pro Israel bias of Cablegate:

In an interview with Spiegel former National Security Adviser Brzezinski wonders about Wikileaks:

Brzezinski: There are slightly mystifying aspects to this whole operation. I do see some strange degree of emphasis on some issues.

SPIEGEL: For example?

Brzezinski: Just look at the degree of emphasi

s that has been put in the initial wave of revelations on discrediting several pro-American Arab governments by highlighting their demands for military action against Iran. That could be very troublesome within some Arab countries. It's also interesting that so much emphasis is put on leaks that could be calculated deliberately to damage American-Turkish relations.

Brzezinski also raised the question of some secret service being behind this during a TV discussion.

Looking at what has been released in the first days of C

ablegate one can certainly see some pro-Israel or anti-Israeli-enemies bias.

Cont. reading: Is there a Pro-Israel Bias in the WikiLeaks Cables?

Julian Assange Becomes the US's Public Enemy No. 1

The man who had sent a shockwave through global politics since the publication of the American embassy cables two weekends ago had become a hunted man.

He has also become the Americans' latest public enemy, after having challenged the world's most powerful nation and made its secrets public for all to see.

Revealed: Assange ‘rape’ accuser linked to notorious CIA operative

U.S. to Host World Press Freedom Day in 2011

Press Statement

Philip J. Crowley Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Public Affairs Washington, DC December 7, 2010

The United States is pleased to announce that it will host UNESCO’s World Press Freedom Day event in 2011, from May 1 – May 3 in Washington, D.C. UNESCO is the only UN agency with the mandate to promote freedom of expression and its corollary, freedom of the press.

The theme for next year’s commemoration will be 21st Century Media: New Frontiers, New Barriers. The United States places technology and innovation at the forefront of its diplomatic and development efforts. New media has empowered citizens around the world to report on their circumstances, express opinions on world events, and exchange information in environments sometimes hostile to such exercises of individuals’ right to freedom of expression. At the same time, we are concerned about the determination of some governments to censor and silence individuals, and to restrict the free flow of information. We mark events such as World Press Freedom Day in the context of our enduring commitment to support and expand press freedom and the free flow of information in this digital age.

Wikileak's Main Aim Is To Reveal Hypocrisy- done.

Courtesy of Harpers