Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 23, 2010
LA Times Misleads on Iran’s Subsidy Reform

Los Angeles has a lot of immigrants from Iran, many of whom came to the U.S. after the revolution kicked the Shah out of his office. The Los Angeles Times is therefore the paper that many of these immigrants read. Unfortunately it does not inform them, but it propagandizes against the Iranian system.

For proof see today's piece on just launched subsidy reform in Iran: Prices in Iran rise after lifting of subsidies

The austerity measures generate work stoppages and embolden the political opposition. Critics contend that the price increases hurt those with modest incomes while leaving the wealthy unscathed.

That short summary printed at the top of the story includes at least two big lies.

Economic austerity (used by the LAT writes because it just made Websters "word of the year"?), is shortly defined as:

a policy of deficit-cutting, lower spending, and a reduction in the amount of benefits and public services provided.

The subsidy reform in Iran will NOT cut the deficit Iran doesn't have. It will also NOT lower government spending and it will NOT reduce the amount of provided benefits and public service. There are zero austerity measures in Iran.

During the "imposed war" with Iraq Iran introduced subsidies for several products, energy, gasoline, flour, etc. Those subsidies proved to be hard to cut after the war and this has been a hot political issue in Iran for several decades.

The subsidies have led to some severe misallocations and waste of resources. For example: Gasoline a third of which Iran has to import at world market prices, was subsidized down to about 15% of the world market price. This had several bad effects. As private individual traffic by car was cheap, motors were just kept running and public transport got neglected. Early this month Tehran had to shut down because of heavy smog. Cheap gasoline was horded and smuggled out of the country to be sold elsewhere.

The Ahmadinejad government now finally managed to reform the system. Instead of subsidizing product prices, the government will subsidize people with lower income. In the first step of subsidy reform, 80% of the Iranian people got a monthly subsidy cash payment from the government. In a second step, which started this week, subsidies for gasoline and other raw energy products were reduced and will eventually, over five years, go down to zero. Prices for gasoline will thereby increase until they have reached world market prices.

Higher gasoline prices will of course effect many other prices as transport cost are a component of nearly all product prices. There will be nominal inflation from this move but this is not inflationary in the bad sense as peoples income also increases. In the terms of Austrian economics, there will be no real inflation at all as only the allocation of the money changes and the total money supply will not increase. Of course there will be quite a bit of turmoil in the local markets as people change their buying habits but in the end demand and supply will find a new balance.

So when the LA Times writes of "critics contend that the price increases hurt those with modest incomes while leaving the wealthy unscathed" this is very easy to debunk.

The wealthy in Iran will not get any income subsidy from the government and will have to pay higher prices. The people with modest income do get additional money from the government and will have to pay higher prices. Idealized their household balance sheet will expand on both sides but with the same balance result. In effect the opposite of the LAT "critics" say, unchallenged by LAT, will happen.

As the government changes the system simply from product subsidies to income subsidies its balance sheet does not change either. How can that be austerity?

But the whole LA Times article will let not you know this. There is zero mentioning of the direct government payments to the less wealthy people in it. None at all.

As for an "emboldening political opposition" that the LAT claims. There is no emboldening to see but a statement from irrelevant former politicians on an obscure website the LAT uses for picking quotes.

As professor of economics at Virginia Tech Djavad Salehi-Isfahani blogs from a visit in Tehran:

So far [Ahmadinejad] seems to have succeeded: day one of the implementation has gone by without panic buying or a serious incident. Patience and gradualism seems to have paid off.

In my view, it would be enough of an achievement for the current plan to succeed and Iran get rid of its vast energy subsidies, even with some inflation. That would prove the critics wrong and become a model for other countries that are looking for a way to wean their citizens off cheap energy.

Update:

Just to add for the fun of it. How does the LA Times endorsed "critics" assertions stand up in light of this World Bank(!) country report (pdf) on Iran?

Targeting the poor more accurately by the public transfers would help to reduce poverty. Half of the poor in Iran, about 4.5 million people, or 1.5 million households, benefit from social coverage by government social safety net programs, charity institutions, and other nonprofit organizations. Whereas this support is partly effective, it is not specifically targeted to the poor, and remains expensive. Extensive subsidies, including energy subsidies, and credit subsidies are excessively large, and their distribution is skewed toward the rich. Subsidies for bread and medicine, for example, are highly untargeted vis-à-vis the poor, and the richest decile of households benefits 12 times more from gasoline subsidies than the poorest decile.

Comments

excellent report b

Posted by: annie | Dec 23 2010 16:01 utc | 1

What annie said.
Here are some figures I came across:

[…] Fruits, gasoline, diesel, cooking gas, electricity, and water are among the major items that have hiked in price, while bread prices have not changed, yet.
ILNA news agency, citing the economy ministry, said the monthly hike in household cooking gas charges has increased by more than five-fold, electricity nearly three-fold, and water more than three times.
Based on the released data the average price for water is 2,500 rials per cubic meters for household usage and 4,128 rials per cubic meters for industrial usage.
Data released on Sunday indicates that the price of subsidized gasoline for the month of Dey (Dec. 22 – Jan. 20) is fixed at 1,000 rials per liter (appx. 9.6 cents) for the first 50-liter purchase, and 4,000 rials per liter for the next 60-liter and more than that quantities gasoline can be purchased at 7,000 rials per liter.
The subsidized diesel oil price is now 1,500 rials per liter and unsubsidized diesel oil will be sold for 3,500 rials per liter. Based on the size of the vehicle between 300 and 1500 liters of diesel with the price of 165 rials (appx. 1.6 cents) will also be offered as supportive ration.
Tehran municipality said the price hikes would not lead to fare hikes of metro rail network and city-run buses in the capital, but taxis would review their tariffs.
According to the reports price inspectors are now working in three shifts per day to monitor and prevent any retail price increases.
Khabar Online claimed on Monday that every four-member family can save some one million rials ($100) in case of an optimal over-all consumption pattern.
Under the plan which went into effect on Sunday, all subsidies are to be gradually removed during a five-year period.
The subsidy cuts plan — encompassing key consumer goods such as gasoline, natural gas, and food — is said to be one of the most important undertakings in Iran’s recent economic history.
Before the official announcement of the plan, every family member received a sum of 810,000 rials (USD 80) in cash subsidies per month for a two-month period.
People in Kouhdasht, Lorestan province in western Iran, line up to withdraw their cash subsidies from an ATM machine
Ahmadinejad has also vowed that the Iranian government would tackle economic problems such as housing, unemployment and improve the banking system through the reform plan.
According to the president, the initiative will lead to a better distribution of wealth among the public.
Officials say energy subsidies have cost the Iranian government around 100 billion dollars a year.
Ahmadinejad also said his government was paying $4 billion in bread subsidies, which will also gradually be phased out. […]

Can those numbers be true?

Posted by: Juan Moment | Dec 23 2010 17:02 utc | 2

@Juan Moment – Can those numbers be true?
If have seen most of those numbers before, or at least in that range, from several good sources including the UN and World Bank. I guess they are more or less in the range of reality. The subsidies, especially on gasoline and diesel were simply absurd.
Funny: Both IMF and the World Bank, tools of the U.S. empire, applaud Ahmadinejad for changing the subsidy system on pure economic grounds, while politically the subsidy change makes it easier for Iran to withstand sanctions.

Posted by: b | Dec 23 2010 17:39 utc | 3

Just to tell you I’ve just realized Moon of Alabama was back and active. I missed it. Loup.

Posted by: Loup Kibiloki | Dec 23 2010 21:17 utc | 4

Sad to see such propaganda but not surprising.
Reminds me of the typical propaganda regarding Cuba in the Miami Papers.
Here are snips from recent stories in the Miami Herald:
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s accuser has ties to Cuban dissidents
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/12/08/1962779_p2/accuser-in-wikileaks-saga-has.html#ixzz18zGoEA2j
Ros-Lehtinen, now in key foreign policy post, signals she’ll challenge Obama policy
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/12/08/1964694/ros-lehtinen-now-in-key-foreign.html#ixzz18zGVyrkr
Some quotes from this second story are interesting and significant:

Promising to play ‘hardball’ with ‘rogue regimes’ and press for cuts in foreign aid, Miami Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen moved rapidly Wednesday to put her mark on U.S. foreign policy as the incoming chair of the influential House Foreign Affairs Committee.
On Wednesday, the Havana-born lawmaker officially became the first Cuban-American to chair a House committee, and the foreign policy hawk signaled she’ll challenge the Obama administration, pressing for tougher sanctions on U.S. enemies, including Iran and North Korea.
“Rogue regimes never respond to anything less than hardball,” she said. “I pledge to do all that I can to isolate U.S. enemies while empowering and strengthening our allies, and I will not make apologies for doing either.”
Ros-Lehtinen, 58, becomes the first South Floridian to lead one of the nation’s key foreign policy posts since the 1980s, when Democrat Dante Fascell became a national figure in the same post. Fascell used the position to help win congressional approval for Radio and TV Martí, supported the Nicaraguan contras and was a chief sponsor of a resolution authorizing the first Iraq war.
Her ascension — which likely scuttles any congressional efforts to ease sanctions against Cuba — has already prompted saber-rattling from critics, including Latin America leaders like Fidel Castro. But Ros-Lehtinen, who will take charge in January, will have more than Latin America on her plate.

Posted by: Rick Happ | Dec 24 2010 1:25 utc | 5

B, I’ve seen similar figures quoted before, such as the 100 billion dollars per annum for energy subsidies. The reason I asked if in your mind these figures make sense is that for all I know the total Iranian government budget per year is approx 370 billion dollars, which if the 100 Billion is correct, means Iran spends about 27% of its total expenditure just on subsidising energy, thats incredible.
On that note, thanx again for reopening the doors at your bar, for the time you spend on providing intelligent analysis, or in more general terms, for being who you are. Merry x-mas brother.
Same to all you other Moonbats, cheers for the engaging dialog and the fascinating links. I am richer for knowing you. Ya’ll have a joyful festive season!

Posted by: Juan Moment | Dec 24 2010 7:06 utc | 6

cheers to you too juan, good to see you and everyone around moon.

Posted by: annie | Dec 24 2010 19:57 utc | 7

Can those numbers be true?
Maybe. In the right order of magnitude. But it all depends how you count, Iran has fossil fuels, why should not the Iranians use them at low or no cost, as a birthright?
(Many strong arguments against, but that is not the point here.)
Iran doesn’t have enough refining capacity, so sends oil out to bring it back in, that costs, as they pay others for services, etc.
But what is the ‘proper price’ of energy or in this case mostly gasoline for cars and truck transport – is is the world spot market for crude in dollars? Or the average price paid world-wide by the public (which often includes levies, tax, etc.), tallied in what – dollars, gold, wheat or as some % of average family income in some currency ? Or should one factor in all the externalities – pollution, environmental degradation, medical costs, policing, red lights, and more? Nobody knows.
So the numbers are all rather fanciful. The very concept of ‘subsidy’ is difficult to scope out. Anyway it’s good that Iran finally managed to shift its ‘subsidies’ and ‘spending’ in the direction of less waste and more direct support for ppl, as opposed to industries, Gvmt. departments, local potentates, lobbies, etc.

Posted by: Noirette | Dec 27 2010 11:35 utc | 8