Back in June 2009, shortly before I interrupted my blogging career, we had some fierce discussion about the election results in Iran. My conclusion in the end was that there had been no fraud and that the protests and riots were just the reaction of some disappointed well-off folks from north Tehran, likely with incitement and support from outside of Iran.
Before the election there was a poll by the New America Foundation which pointed (pdf) to a 2 to 1 Ahmedinejad lead over Moussavi and his "Green Movement". According to the official Iranian numbers Ahmedinejad did get about 60% of all votes. In September 2009 a World Public Opinion.org poll found that indeed some 60% of all Iranians claimed to have voted for Ahmedinejad, but some people have doubted those poll results. But just release poll by the International Peace Institute confirms the numbers:
The leaders of Iran’s opposition Green Movement are favored by roughly one-third of Iranians, the poll found, similar to their results in the 2009 Iranian presidential election. Although there were widespread charges of fraud, all the post-election polls show that around 60% of the people who were interviewed say that they voted for Ahmadinejad in 2009, close to the official and much-disputed figures.
I guess that settles the discussion.
But what we do not know yet is who and how the "western" powers incited the "Green Movement". We have a hint from a Haaretz article which ran on June 1 2009 before(!) the elections.
Israeli diplomats told to take offensive in PR war against Iran
Organizing demonstrations in front of Iranian consulates worldwide, staging mock stonings and hangings in public, and launching a massive media campaign against Iran – these are just some of the steps Israeli diplomats have been told to take in the coming weeks. The goal, according to a senior Foreign Ministry official, is "to show the world that Iran is not a Western democracy" in the run-up to the country's presidential election on June 12.
That Israeli demonization campaign was certainly successful. But I am sure that Israel was not the only "western" government working on this project. I wonder if the leaks from Cablegate, less than 0.5% of which have been published so far, will give us some more information on this.