The Real Clashes Have Begun – Moon of Alabama

June 20, 2009

The Real Clashes Have Begun

With Khamenei's speech yesterday the political stage is set and now the real clashes have begun:

Eyewitnesses described fierce clashes near Revolution Square in central Tehran after some 3,000 protesters chanted "Death to the dictator!" and "Death to dictatorship!" Police responded with tear gas and water cannons, the witnesses said.

Simple rioting will not achieve anything but a sharper crackdown.

To morally win, the demonstrators will have to convene peacefully in one huge crowd in one place. The police will try to prevent that by blocking the access roads to the possible places in question and by disbanding any infant formation of a bigger crowd.

Having been in several bigger conflicts with riot police forces I see no chance for the demonstrators to achieve that goal. In a determined demonstration one can defend the ground one has if one is willing to take and inflict some casualties. But even with violence it is nearly impossible to get to an area like a big prominent place if a competent police force is aware of that goal and is willing to employ the usual anti-riot measures like teargas and water cannons.

The policeman in this picture seems confident and competent to me.

I'd think twice about outfighting this guy.

Posted by b on June 20, 2009 at 14:23 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Two people hurt in Tehran blast

Two people have been hurt as a blast hits near the mausoleum of Imam Khomeini in south Tehran.

Hmmm – now that is serious. It is a direct challenge to the heritage of the Islamic Republic. Whoever did that wants to widen the conflict.

Posted by: b | Jun 20 2009 14:30 utc | 1

there is bound to be some return for that 400 million. otherwise the next performance report will be brutal.
The Persians gave us the game of Chess, I suspect they are a couple of moves ahead of us in this game as well. these are interesting times.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 20 2009 14:46 utc | 2

Once again, b shows his agenda and his support for the Khameni regime.
Clearly, nothing will sway him from supporting a crackdown.
Well, here it comes. There will be a crackdown, and it will fail. The people have nothing to lose by fighting day after day until Khameni is gone.
They have a great deal to lose by surrendering themselves, their families, and their future to his thugs, and his power-mad whims.
There is no turning back now for either side. I stated that it would be a civil war several days ago. Here it is.

Posted by: Antifa | Jun 20 2009 14:53 utc | 3

If true!
Then,Putchists are loosing patience and nerves,loosing battle.Time running against them.As for myself,desirable outcome would be:throwing Musavi and his backers (Rasfanjani a.k.a. Millionare Mullah) to landfill of political life in Iran.

Posted by: balkanac | Jun 20 2009 14:53 utc | 4

If water cannons and tear gas are all it takes then the worst is over. 3000 doesn’t seem like very many. But if, God forbid, live ammo is ever used and people die, this will spiral out of control. Others will protest, tempers will boil and still more violence will be needed. People not initially sympathetic to the protesters will be shocked by the violence and begin to question the government. Even if the regime survives, it will be a wounded animal and the West will smell blood and strike like the sharks they are.
I’m not saying that is what is going to happen, but the government needs something better than just riot police.

Posted by: Lysander | Jun 20 2009 15:00 utc | 5

Maybe something like this:
DoD Training Manual: Protests are “Low-Level Terrorism”

Posted by: balkanac | Jun 20 2009 15:05 utc | 6

Hmmm – now that is serious. It is a direct challenge to the heritage of the Islamic Republic. Whoever did that wants to widen the conflict.
Unless proved otherwise, this is the work of Mossad.

Posted by: slothrop | Jun 20 2009 15:37 utc | 7

Lysander@5
Another problem is that even a peaceful protest creates an interrruption of the daily lives of people in the area, even those who support the opposition. Back during the Vietnam antiwar protests in the ’60s and ’70s, the people who were trying to get to work, trying to get to school, etc., while sympathetic to the message, got really pissed off at the constant disruption of their everyday lives. It cost the antiwar movement many supporters.
And there is always a price to pay. Having been clubbed, kicked, punched and teargassed, I had to stop attending the protests once I got pregnant with my son. Even a peaceful protest can turn violent when some idiot throws a rock at the cops. They aren’t going to just stand there yelling, “Okay, who threw the rock?” They are just going to pour into the crowd.

Posted by: ensley | Jun 20 2009 15:57 utc | 8

Many protesters are carrying large portraits of Mossadegh.
The payback goes way, way back.
Khameni’s pickle is that if he acquiesces to a new election, he loses face and loses power. He and his people are reduced in influence and authority. After 30 years atop the regime, he cannot accept that. There are closets full of skeletons, and dusty ledgers he wants no one to see.
If Khameni stiffs the nascent freedom movement, he loses respect and authority. His very job is to see that the people are not turned away from the halls of government. He is their Protector. If he orders the people in the streets beaten, shot, arrested (as he has done) then he loses all authority and status as a spiritual leader.
He can only lose by whatever happens next.
Whereas the people protesting, having put themselves forward, can not turn back without losing their future in Iran. They will be punished and banished from all sorts of educational and financial resources. They’d be far better off fleeing the country.
For most, that is not possible.
So they will die before they give in, no matter how long it takes.

Posted by: Antifa | Jun 20 2009 16:12 utc | 9

@Antifa – Once again, b shows his agenda and his support for the Khameni regime.
Clearly, nothing will sway him from supporting a crackdown.
Dear Antifa – Where in the above do I show support for the Khamenei regime and where do I support the crackdown?
Which words of my analysis -please quote- led you to that assessment?

Posted by: b | Jun 20 2009 16:12 utc | 10

Thanx ensley, I was thinking that could be another tactic the government can use. Let them protest all they like. Police should defend critical parts of the city, but allow protesters to move about, chant and make demands till the cows come home. To gain legitimacy, the government can announce it will do nothing to stop peaceful protesters.
Once the protests turn into mob rule, the people of Tehran may actually support a crack down. Cracking skulls is definitely a losing proposition. And if it escalates into a Tienanmen moment, Iran might as well invite the U.S. to invade.

Posted by: Lysander | Jun 20 2009 16:20 utc | 11

BBC Propaganda is sometimes so obvious …

A BBC correspondent saw one man shot in a crowd and another with injuries from a razor-wielding secret policeman
…
Foreign news organisations – including the BBC – have been subjected to strict controls which prevent reporters from leaving their offices.

Posted by: b | Jun 20 2009 16:22 utc | 12

b is just using his brain antifa. Are you upset because the policeman hasn’t joined the protest?

Posted by: dh | Jun 20 2009 16:39 utc | 13

.Which words of my analysis -please quote- led you to that assessment?
You sneaky bastard. You really are going to have it both ways, aren’t you?
You praise your equanimous demand for “proof” of things unprovable as a facile (mostly implicit) defense of your support of AN.
You’ve been doing it all week.
And you’ve wrecked your clever ambivalence anyway when you admitted that you prefer AN because he would be the target of an externally-financed prop campaign against him.
Not to mention your (again, not so implicit) defense of AN has been obscenely corrupted by some unpleasant inconsistencies in your version of AN: “social democrat” which is some baggage loaded with a number of contradictions (friend of labor, women, enlightenment, etc.).
You’ve gotten your ass kicked, and dick stomped. You should just man-up and admit it.

Posted by: slothrop | Jun 20 2009 17:17 utc | 14

Updates
1-Late afternoon today , after Guardian council announce readiness to recount 10% of total votes randomly for verification, Musavi has send a letter to the council with new list of election violation.
Musavi was invited to be present to discuss his earlier list of complains, but he decided not to show up. Unlike his original list new list ( although after deadline ),is specific list of violations according to him.
One interesting new item in his new list is why ballot boxes hasn’t been certified as empty before election and they could have tampered with before.
It seems this is just reaction to Guardian Council’s decision for recount. It seems they probably like to dismiss recount as well.
2- Today Assembly of Experts ,body of 86 scholars that is in charge of electing and removing Khamenei issued important statement in support of Leader. Rafsanjani is head of this assembly.

Posted by: Loyal | Jun 20 2009 17:24 utc | 15

On either Washington Week of NewsHour on PBS last night, one analyst said that a head or higher up of the Republican Guard had publicly backed Mousavi and his supporting mullahs.
Has anyone heard of this? There seemed to be quite a bit of hearsay being talked about as actual reporting….

Posted by: jawbone | Jun 20 2009 17:31 utc | 16

antifa
i do not know why you read into b’s text either support for ahmedinijad or a support for a crackdown. i witness no such position. o have learnt much from your posts antifa but on the iranian question – & as someone here who counseled patience in our observations – your own position is quite clear
what b has posed is that the situation is far from clear. & the situation is far from clear
thouggh i could never support a theocracy – it is impossible for me to understate the iranian state has taken at the heart of anti imperialism. & that anti imperialism, i support without question
b’s post here – is from a streetfighter with some history who is simply recounting – the tactical possibilities on the streets. the numbers today 3,000 do not seem to reflect a mass movement & given the rhetoric in these last few days – i’d say that that number reveals a significant defeat
but as a i sd yesterday or last night – now that the situation has arrived at this – iran is in a lose lose situation from which imperialism will benefit
for all the communications invested in iran we are hearing nothing from the other cities, we are hearing nothing either from other university towns & that is a surprise
& as i have insisted we communists can cry but political islam in all its forms has taken the initiative in the anti imperialist enterprise- in iran & elsewhere
i seriouslly think there has been a destabilisation process in ran of which – the demonstrations in the street may be an unwilling factor in that destabilisation, perhaps not – it is simply too difficult to tell & i don’t trust robert fisk enough to to tell the difference between workers & students – tho it is clear to me that there is a miltant opposition to theocrats but it seems to me they are directed towards the same defeat that befell them in 1979
& really antifa, i do not see any difference in the contextualising be is doing – from work he always does here – – personally this space breathes agains a tidal wave of ‘information’ that has hidden the terrible facts before
antifa, if we are the backwater that you say we are in an earlier post this week – this is one of the few times since i have been here that i have witnessed such an onslaught of ‘opinion’ from thos who havenever posted here before. that is not such a bad thing but the repitition of the same texts, of the same ‘information’, on the concentrations on certain questions rather than others seems to belie the authenticity of those opinions

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 20 2009 17:32 utc | 17

Loyal:Today Assembly of Experts ,body of 86 scholars that is in charge of electing and removing Khamenei issued important statement in support of Leader. Rafsanjani is head of this assembly.
Perhaps Mr Pistachio has been removed from the council. Any guess where he is hiding. I heard rumors as part of Saberi (the journlist) interrogation she hinted that there was a conspiracy in the making. The leadership is binding their time, they know AN has won squarely and a partial recount will prove it.
keep us informed Loyal!

Posted by: hans | Jun 20 2009 17:38 utc | 18

Lysander:
If the protests really do “turn into mob rule”, and the people of Tehran start to “support a crack down”, then that will basically be a “Tiananmen moment” — and skulls will be cracked.
Yet while this would be a big propaganda coup for the Israelis and pro-war factions in the U.S, it still wouldn’t change any of the logistical or strategic problems that starting a war with Iran would pose. The magnitude of those problems will still give the military strong impetus to resist starting up such a conflict, and the U.S. would still need to reckon what would probably be a hidden, vicious backlash from players like China and Russia, as well.
I’m not saying the attacks won’t happen; but for them to actually get the go-ahead, the U.S. leadership would basically need to lose its mind and start talking with imaginary friends. Beyond that, however, if the attacks do happen then the first thing the Irani public will do is join the Basij and IRGC as they turn on the rich neighborhoods of Tehran and slaughter every last supporter of Mousavi and Rafsanjani they can get their hands upon.
Bush had conversations with God in his off-time, so it was more probable with him. Obama’s not so unhinged, but even so he may not be able to keep the genie in the bottle — and if he can’t, then what we may be seeing here is the beginning of the war that ends America. U.S. and Israeli influence over Irani politics would be utterly destroyed by an attack; more than just the nuclear facilities would need to be bombed. Iran would need to be reduced to something like Somalia to guarantee against future retaliation, and i just don’t think the U.S. has that capability.
Personally, i think the U.S. elite has too great an interest in self-preservation to allow an attack on Iran. But then, history’s one perennial bloom is the reeking, rotting empire.

Posted by: china_hand2 | Jun 20 2009 17:40 utc | 19

Paul Rosenberg at Open Left has items from several sources on today’s news from Iran.
Among other many other things:

NBC’s Ann Curry tweets: “Iran state tv claims explosion at tomb of revered Ayatollah Khomeini. Would incite anger against protesters. Is it true? … Remember Iran govt is the only source of this explosion report. NO independent confirmation and misinformation is dangerous.”
A reader, speculating that the government set the bomb, writes, “The mullahs did something similar in August 1978 in Iran – they set a cinema in Abadan ablaze and blamed the Shah. That was the turning point of that revolution as the people bagan to see the Shah as ruthless.”

There are comments from pundits, analysts. Somewhat wearying, as right now not many know what is actually happening, much less what it means. But the MCM* is eager to speculate and promote various agendas, spin its favored narrative. I recall on one of the evening news programs on election day, some guy was saying how clear it was that Ahmadinejad’s campaign had perpetrated election fraud. He did not say how; just knew.
Since the US MCM has shown itself to be quite willing to report lies and never correct them, it’s almost worthless to pay attention to its reporting. But, I still do, alas….
*MCM–Mainstream Corporate Media

Posted by: jawbone | Jun 20 2009 17:45 utc | 20

slothrop
clearer than ever. you see what you want to see
if you want to beat up someone – do it to me – you mannequin marxist – because it seems to me – b – has researched & thought out publically – something you never do & the archives of moa will prove that
as the archives will prove without question – that you have implicity supported the invasion of iraq against the ‘dictator’ hussein, you have concurred with centcom & sd all resistance in iraq is by aq, you have in fact consistently supported the fictions of centcom, you have rushed to analyse a situation you do not know well – in fact i remember quite vividly your position that baghdad & the cultural centres weren’t attacked by us forces, you have reduced the resistance in the same way rumsfield did – it is true perhaps i overstated the cohesion within the resistance but in that case i know history will finally bear me out, you have reduced the anti imperialist battle in afghanistan & again have implicity supported it as you have the attacks on the pakistani people, you were curiously silent on gaza except again to attack political islam & while i can understand that – it denies the central role they actually play
the archives will support that fact that you have been silent on the crimes of imperialism especially in the middle east, you have been silent on rendition & torture, you have been silent on the extinguishing of life in the cities & villages of iraq – there are so many absences that it cannot be accidental – it is a curious form of marxism that does away with imperialism with a metaphoric global capitalism that place the responsibility of the crimes of capital on a pensioner from roubaix & not on those who whisper within the walls of washington
a washington you have contradictorily described as completely secondary – yet the centre of supreme military power etc etc
the archives at moa will prove that & more
you are capable slothrop of forming a critique in a little more comradely fashion – than in your one line insulting missives

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 20 2009 17:53 utc | 21

@Loyal, thanks for the update. Unfortunately such information seem not to make it into the western media.
One question. One rumor cited by Mousavi followers is that the ballots were not counted in the local precincts where the vote took place but were only counted in the interior ministry. This sounds false to me and I have heard no witnesses forthcoming on that.
Can you tell us something about that?
@jawbone – There seemed to be quite a bit of hearsay being talked about as actual reporting….
from Robert Fisk in Tehran: In Tehran, fantasy and reality make uneasy bedfellows

…
A day earlier, an Iranian woman muttered to me in an office lift that the first fatality of the street violence was a young student. Was she sure, I asked? “Yes,” she said. “I have seen the photograph of his body. It is terrible.” I never saw her again. Nor the photograph. Nor had anyone seen the body. It was a fantasy. Earnest reporters check this out – in fact, I have been spending at least a third of my working days in Tehran this past week not reporting what might prove to be true but disproving what is clearly untrue.
…
A report that Basiji militia had taken over one of Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s main election campaign office was a classic. Yes, there were uniformed men in the building – belonging to Mousavi’s own hired security company.
…

Fisk falls for some murky information himself, but at least he tries.

Posted by: b | Jun 20 2009 17:54 utc | 22

Apropos of nothing, really, but the riot policeman looks a bit like a younger Dustin Hoffman….

Posted by: jawbone | Jun 20 2009 17:58 utc | 23

everyone gets their chance to say whatever they want here.
and deconstruction requires a bias for digging deeper in search of truths. It all depends on how deep you want to dig and what direction you are digging in. And you ca’nt possibly dig in all directions at the same time.
asking b to stop digging in a particular direction just because one does not agree with where its headed is a disservice.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jun 20 2009 18:00 utc | 24

Throwing Mousavi and supporters “to landfill of political life”, as balkanac puts it, doesn’t come across as a poetic image.
I don’t think it can continue to be of relevance to continue to harp on the color revolution angle, absent even a shred of objective evidence, other than the supposition that all media are in collusion for reporting the story. There is nothing here and repeating this meme can be interpreted as depreciating the legitimate struggle that may be taking place among the protesters. I don’t see what the point of it is, when a quasi-legal militia is prowling the streets at night to rough up, beat, or take protesters or suspected protesters into custody.

Posted by: Copeland | Jun 20 2009 18:17 utc | 25

& for someone who works with language slothrop – there is a world of difference between a person making their analysis out loud & those who offer a more doctrinaire position & i wonder why you invest so much in your attacks on b
would you call the weathermen heeroes when they fought the forces of the u s state on their day of rage with less than a 1,000 people. were they the people
3,000 people does not seem like the people to me no matter how brave they are & i have no doubt about their courage. moussavi seems to want to ignite such acts yet he doesn’t want to participate physically. he says he awaits martyrdom but he is not on the streets today
the situation is considerably more complex than your argument permits & that is often the case with your argument. no doubt i will be called everything from an old cow, to a charlatan – i wonder why you don’t accuse me of being in the pay of iran, perhaps that is not long coming

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 20 2009 18:21 utc | 26

copeland
there is considerable evidence of color revolution & the institutions that support it – that is not to suggest that at the same time at least some of those in the streets simply oppose theocracy. i don’t know but neither do you. if there was support of such a position – why aren’t we seeing a general strike for example, why aren’t the other cities resonating with this resistance
nothing is over – but what role is the urban working class, the rural workers & the dispossesed who live in both the cities & country
any human being would think twice about massing on the streets of tehran today but at the same time it reflects for the moment an unwillingness of the factional fighters within the elites to take it out there

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 20 2009 18:29 utc | 27

I find this blog to be immensely informative. Even the hot disagreements among the posters indicate the sort of critical thought lacking almost everywhere in any sort of media.
I think the demonstrations have taken on a life of their own independent of Mousavi and his allegations of electoral fraud.
Whether his charges were true or not–and I for one think he may well have planned those charges well before the results came in–Mousavi and the elites, pro and con, are no longer in control of this game.
Mousavi has created something that is no longer beholden to or controlled by him. To trot out that well-worn cliche: the demonstrators are no longer the tail being wagged by Mousavi, they are now the dog.
The question to me is who or what will eventually co-opt this movement and turn it into its own benefit. No doubt every faction with any stake in the game–the US, hardliners, softliners, revolutionaries, reformists, Israel–will attempt to do just that.

Posted by: steve | Jun 20 2009 18:30 utc | 28

Loyal#15
Musavi was invited to be present to discuss his earlier list of complains, but he decided not to show up. Unlike his original list new list ( although after deadline ),is specific list of violations according to him.
One interesting new item in his new list is why ballot boxes hasn’t been certified as empty before election and they could have tampered with before.
It seems this is just reaction to Guardian Council’s decision for recount. It seems they probably like to dismiss recount as well.
Mousavi should be asked the following questions:
1) why did’nt you show up for the GC meeting or send someone
2) How many polling stations did you have agents at during the election
3) To demonstrate massive rigging, you should be working very closely with other candidates especially Kourabi who alleges he was robbed of 5M votes. Are you doing so ?
also, Mousavi seems to be pursuing the line that ballot-boxes were pre-stuffed. If that is the case, recounts at polling-stations at which Mousavi’s agents and/or agents of other candidates were present should reveal serious irregularities.
a truly random limited recount (10%) should reveal serious irregularities. Better still for Musavi, recounts at just 1% of polling stations of Musavi’s choosing should reveal serious irregularities.
and if either recount scenario should reveal serious irregularities, Musavi deserves a re-run of the election.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jun 20 2009 18:30 utc | 29

To b:
Judging from his latest revised letter, I don’t get that impression, but that could be language barrier (Farsi is not my first language).
his new list includes following categories:
1 About voting box seal.
2-presence of candidate representatives
3-Mobie ballot boxes
4- Vote tickets
5-Time limits
6- Transport of voting boxes
He has questions in regards to not existance of sufficient monitoring during transport.
Just like his earlier letter he has complained that ; ANejad has benefited from government resources including airplane, TV free use in addition to biased conduct of Military branches.
He will lose even if he revise his letter one more time. he does not like recount . As i said befotre he hjas not won a single election ( for office)in his life and no exception here.
I would have voted ( if i could have )for his wife Zohreh Hashemi. I trust her more.
copies of both letters.
http://www.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8803301238
http://www.ghalamnews.ir/news-21122.aspx

Posted by: Loyal | Jun 20 2009 18:33 utc | 30

America is having its own color revolution, after the Black Revolution in November. It’s kind of like the upcoming “Green Two Revolution” in Afghanistan this August, and kind of like the “Green One Revolution” being perpetrated on the people of Iran by Western tele-media, but ours is more $Ts “Green-Orange-with-Blue-Seal Revolution” going on in the halls of the US Treasury.

Posted by: Pox Americana | Jun 20 2009 18:53 utc | 31

jony_b_cool
Musavi had much more representatives than ANejad ( i think few thousands more ). In Tehran alone Musavi had 5786 representatives and ANejad had 5240 Representatives.

Posted by: Loyal | Jun 20 2009 18:55 utc | 32

Another little lesson to the ignominious history of those who use force but not reason.
I imagine the shooter was unreasonably provoked by the cia-paid demonstrators.

Posted by: slothrop | Jun 20 2009 18:58 utc | 33

2- Today Assembly of Experts ,body of 86 scholars that is in charge of electing and removing Khamenei issued important statement in support of Leader. Rafsanjani is head of this assembly.
Loyal, can you provide a link to this?
I really have a hard time seeing this happen if there was any indication at all that, per Juan Cole’s theory, the entire election was fabricated, no votes were counted at all, and the reported numbers were just made up.
A spectacular fraud like that alleged, carried out against an establishment candidate like Mousavi – who has the openly expressed support of Rafsanjani, the chair of the Assembly of Experts – would be more likely to end with Khamenei in prison than with its results being accepted.

Posted by: Arnold Evans | Jun 20 2009 19:00 utc | 34

But then, history’s one perennial bloom is the reeking, rotting empire.
Nicely said china_hand.

Posted by: a | Jun 20 2009 19:05 utc | 35

r’giap,
why aren’t we seeing a general strike for example, why aren’t the other cities resonating with this resistance
nothing is over – but what role is the urban working class, the rural workers & the dispossesed who live in both the cities & country
You are right about this; and it’s not yet possible to say that a revolutionary moment, or a moment for institutional change is forthcoming, without some broadening of that support among the people.
There is still time for the relevant authorities to salvage the situation with a runoff election, along with oversight that will satisfy both candidates, at the polling places. But there is the risk or opportunity for an easing of cultural restrictions that the young find so odious. There is something else the demonstrators sense perhaps: that the time for repressive measures such as we see in the goon squads has outlived its time for this society, all the restrictive, oppressive obstacles in their lives that they are tired of living with.
There is also the corruption that Khamenei lightly touched upon in his homily on the world-without-end goodness of the entrenched ruling class, that includes both Ahmadinejad and Mousavi.

Posted by: Copeland | Jun 20 2009 19:06 utc | 36

To Arnold Evans:
Here is the link you asked.
http://www.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8803301209

Posted by: Loyal | Jun 20 2009 19:13 utc | 37

Recount, Recount: A Day in the Life of a Guardian Council Recounter
9:00 a.m., small office, five men, one ballot box on a table. The men represent Mousavi (MM), Karroubi (KM), Rezaee (RM), the Guardian Council (GC), and the Ministry of Interior (MOI).
GC: OK. Here is a certified ballot box with the results: Out of a 100 votes cast, Dr. Ahmadinejad has gotten 60, Mr. Mousavi 20, General Rezaee 12, Mr. Karroubi 5, and 3 are inadmissible.
MM: Yeah, but no one from our campaign signed the certificate.
GC: But there is a signature here.
MM: Not our signature. They just put a signature there. They had kicked our representative out long before counting started.
GC: No problem, we will count the votes again.
They start counting Ahmadinejad’s votes.
MM: There are 45 Ahmadinejad votes here that are written by the same person. Look at the handwriting. Same handwriting, same pen.
KM and RM nod in agreement. MOI scowls.
GC: Hm, let’s look. The handwriting is quite different. The pen is the same. I give you that.
MM: Oh come on! How can you say that? It is obvious one person has written all these votes.
GC: OK. Let’s make one thing clear: Why we are here. We are here to recount the votes….
MM: Right!
GC: So that you guys realize His Eminence The Great Leader (HEGL) [magham-e moazzam-e rahbari] Ayatollah Khamenei was right: There is no fraud in the election.
MM: But how can you know there was no fraud until you recount the votes?
GC: I know there was no fraud because HEGL has decreed that there was no fraud. I’m here to convince you of that.
MM: But how would HEGL know there was no fraud?
GC: Because he knows we (Looks at MOI) are fair. Do you mean to accuse of being unfair?
MM: Well, you see those votes are not real, but you refuse to throw them out.
GC: I think we already determined that those votes rightfully belong to Dr. Ahmadinejad.
MM: But?
GC: Are you saying HEGL is wrong? When he says there is no fraud there is no fraud and it is my duty to prove that. HEGL is the Deputy of the Twelfth Imam [nayeb-e emam-e zaman]. When he says something it must be true.
MM: But those votes are not genuine and you know it.
GC: How do you know that? Were you here when they were being written? Do you want me to contradict the decree of the Deputy of the Twelfth Imam and go to hell just because some people decided to vote for some guy? Besides, I am accountable only to the HEGL Ayatollah Khamenei. (Lowers his voice). Do you think it would be wise for me to tell him that he was mistaken after his spectacular Friday sermon when everyone in the world heard him say there was no fraud? What sort of fool do you take me for?
MM: But people have rights. Voting rights. You know democratic….
GC: Hold it right there. I don’t see the emblem of these papers saying Democratic Republic of Iran. It says Islamic Republic of Iran. The HEGL is appointed by God and accountable only to Him. You do realize that, don’t you?
MM: So you are not gonna invalidate those votes?
GC: They look valid to me.
MM: I’m not gonna sign the certificate for this polling station.
GC: No worries, we have your signature when you applied for a card. We’ll place one there.
MM: But….
GC: The matter is settled. Tea anyone?

Posted by: Dragonfly | Jun 20 2009 19:23 utc | 38

Dragonfly, nice:)
Karroubi’s count was less than the inadmissibles though he came 5th!

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 20 2009 19:46 utc | 39

Antifa @ 9:
If Khameni stiffs the nascent freedom movement, he loses respect and authority.
This isn’t about a freedom movement. This is a battle for power in a theocracy, that has a clear record of supressing liberals no matter who is in power. When the Shah was unseated the liberals that helped free the people from the dictator were marginalized and the clergy took the throne. Moussavi, Khatami and Rafsanjani have all held positions of power and have clear records of brutally suppressing liberals that call for democracy and freedom. The record is there for anyone to see and anybody that thinks those 3 will overthrow the theocracy is seriously delusional.
My heart goes out to the real liberals in Iran trying to bring change in thier country but they are not going to get it by a changing of the guard in the religious establishment. There are many on this site attacking b and claiming he is a tool for Ahmadinejad while ignoring the clear record of the alternative. Like I pointed out in an earlier post this is the same tactic of the warmongers accusing us of being Saddam supporters for not supporting the invasion of Iraq. If we use that logic then those decrying b must be supporters of John bomb bomb Iran McCain becuase he is clearly in thier corner.
You’ll get more insight into the struggle by following the money than you will from political activists that are always partisan to their side. Money and Power same old same old:

If you look at recent events in Iran through the lens of oil, money and power, you won’t go too far wrong.
…
Having finally wrested control after years of struggle of the oil revenues from the Rafsanjani faction, the Khamenei’ites are in no mood to give it up.

hat tip to JohnH
You know what they say – in politics nothing is ever as it seems. No different here when change was the slogan but the policy remainded the same after Obama was elected. The wars go on, the same governments are supported and attacked, the bankers are still collecting welfare and the lobbyists are still thick as theives on K Street. Only now it is being done with high rhetorc, a few tweaks and a smiley face.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 20 2009 19:53 utc | 40

loyal @15
Today Assembly of Experts ,body of 86 scholars that is in charge of electing and removing Khamenei issued important statement in support of Leader. Rafsanjani is head of this assembly
loyal, back on the day after the election, I had heard a random rumor that Rafsanjani had ‘resigned.’ Since there was no further info, I dismissed it as, well, an unfounded rumor. But he hasn’t been seen around since during this crisis. Could the rumor have been true? Has he resigned from one of the positions he held?

Posted by: ensley | Jun 20 2009 21:48 utc | 41

Amir @ 39
It is beyond me how these guys cannot see simplest of facts just because they want to defend Ahmadinejad, ostensibly because he opposes the U.S.
I have posted voting data and how you can actually see for yourself the contours of fraud, but they seem to have an aversion to data. Pity!

Posted by: Dragonfly | Jun 21 2009 0:38 utc | 42

@Dragonfly & Amir
You & your recent fellow-traveller ID’s, the cat dragged in, since you choose to persist in lowering discourse to the gutter, can GO FUCK yourselves, … along with Parviz and his Hamas, Hezbollah & Arab ‘Stormtrooper’ UTTER BULLSHIT ! As if ! A flight of C-17 or C-5s just dropped ’em off, heh ! Simply utterly facile BULLSHIT which undermines his entirety of first hand claims and credibility.
Should the non-priveledged Iranians of Southern Tehran and the Tehran Slums be seen to be active I might start to believe there is something to this other than co-ordinated disinformation and misrepresentation.
If 65% ACTUALLY voted for Mousavi, why is there only 3,000 hardcore protesters on the street when it REALLY actually matters ! 3,000, pfft …
That regular posters here can fall for these ‘drop-in’, clearly non-credible, non-credited, non-sourced, unsubtantiated repetitive claims & memes, interwoven with provactive, disruptive & unjustified personal attacks, is utterly beyond me …
Dragonfly, you & your compatriates clearly cannot sustain the credible falsity of personas over extended postings … whilst, as b has so succintly put it, ‘Shitting on the floor of the Guest Room’, go spend your resources and time on Twitter instead of MOA … give it up and FUCK-OFF.

Posted by: Outraged | Jun 21 2009 1:05 utc | 43

Dragonfly:
The enemy of their enemy is their friend.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 1:14 utc | 44

Oh, I thought you meant the REAL clash has begun, das Liberals Unter der ZioNazis:
Officer: Warum haben Sie dieses Geld?! Das ist die Frage, das ist die große Frage!
Bierfeldt: Ja, Herr, und ich bin sehr aufgeregt, ob ich bin gesetzlich verpflichtet, diese Frage zu beantworten.
Officer: Antwort, dass die Frage zuerst zu beantworten, warum haben Sie dieses Geld?!
Bierfeldt: Bin ich gesetzlich verpflichtet, diese Frage zu beantworten?
Officer: Sie weigern, diese Frage zu beantworten?
Bierfeldt: Nein, Sir, ich bin nicht verweigern.
Officer: Nun, Sie nicht antworten.
Bierfeldt: Ich bin einfach um meine Rechte nach dem Recht.
Passenger says TSA agents harassed him, illegally detained
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/06/20/tsa.lawsuit/index.html
TSA budget and staffing is being DOUBLED for new “Transportation Inspectors”. Ja wohl! According to Congressional budget watchers, working for TSA is now the TOP employment opportunity remaining in the USA.
This is the Arbeit Macht Frei of the US ZioNazi Brown Shirts, and by 2012, you will not want to still be living here.

Posted by: Bibi Jebeezus | Jun 21 2009 1:37 utc | 45

Outraged @ 43
I am not sure how else a discourse can be denigrated but by insinuation, baseless accusations and ultimately foul language, all hallmarks of your post.
If something about the ideas I have presented here bothers you, please let me what it is and why you are bothered by it. Perhaps that will be more beneficial to you and me.
I do not have the pleasure of knowing Parviz or Amir S. So I cannot speak for their posts.
I have never claimed that Mousavi received 65% of the vote. I don’t know how many votes he has. What I have claimed with actual data released by the Ahmadinejad administration is that the election results as reported by the government of Mr. Ahmadinejad are almost surely fraudulent. Here it is once more for your viewing pleasure. If you find fault with what I propose as a sensible way to detect fraud with election results, please let me know.
1. Go to the website of MOI and download their aggregate voting data that is organized by county. Here is the link for MOI aggregate data:
http://www.moi.ir/Portal/File/ShowFile.aspx?ID=0793459f-18c3-4077-81ef-b6ead48a5065
This is the same link used by Walter Mebane of the University of Michigan whose analysis b cited before.
2. Go to the website of the Statistical Center of Iran and download the population figures for all the people who are 12 years of age and above in each county in Iran according to the 2006 census. The data for each province is here:
http://www.sci.org.ir/content/userfiles/_census85/census85/natayej/township/Age-Township2.html
3. Compare the number reported by Mr. Ahmadinejad’s MOI in with the census figures. This means that we are assuming no one has died in Iran in the past three years, which favors Mr. Ahmadinejad’s numbers, but let’s be lenient.
If you do this simple exercise you will find out that for more than half the 366 counties, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s MOI has reported more than a 100% of all the population of the county as voters. This is simply impossible. Remember that death rate in Iran has hovered around 6% for the past three years. So the number of eligible voters in each county should be less than the number reported in the 2006 census. But even with these assumptions favoring Mr. Ahmadinejad, half of counties have reported simply impossible figures. Interestingly, if you correlate those counties that have above 100% participation rate with Mr. Ahmadinejad’s vote in those counties you find a statistically significant positive relation. This means that Mr. Ahmadinejad did well in counties where there was fraud.
The other claim I have made, perhaps too obliquely for your grasp, is that within the current ideological and legal structure of the government, there is no way for a recount to be fair. Read my post 38 in this thread. Now if you do not agree with this assessment either you are more than welcome to let me know why.

Posted by: Dragonfly | Jun 21 2009 1:46 utc | 46

Oops! Thought you were talking about THIS clash:
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Oil_and_Gas/10323162.html
Anil scores against Mukesh in gas case!!
You’re blowing smoke up your own ass if you think there will be a Green Revolution.
The only ‘Green Revolution’ is Global Vulture Capital usuring you’all like a cancer.
The only ‘Green Revolution’ is US BioPharmMed ‘promising’ to do ‘better’ for ‘less’.
You’re being fed into a hog-fuel chipper, still chittering like magpies about Iran!
Iran has the lowest external debt and #4 supply of fossil fuels in all the world!!
They don’t need your stinkin’ opines, it’s just a way to usure up ‘defense’ taxes!
http://www.ballerhouse.com/2008/02/07/what-does-a-6-million-home-theater-look-like/

Posted by: Yural Wanekurz | Jun 21 2009 3:30 utc | 47

The letter supporting Khamenei’s Friday statement, purportedly from the whole Assembly of Experts, is signed only by Mohammad Yazdi, Ahmadinejad’s biggest supporter among the clerics. [link is to Farsi]
Yazdi is the deputy head of the AoE. A letter that really spoke for the whole Assembly would be signed by all of them, or at least the head, Rafsanjani, as well as Yazdi.

Posted by: Nell | Jun 21 2009 15:59 utc | 48

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