@R’Giap
Yes, simply white noise.
Have you noticed how his claims and references to deaths, beatings, injustice are all very, very, detached & clinical or alternately utterly sensational & emotionally provocative … yet interaction with other posters is clinical, distanced, sterile, pompously, bombastically dismissive & aggressive where there is not instant acceptance … creates a continuous ringing in the ears as of tinnitis …
His kind are performing thier assigned duty, or at best advancing thier agenda, no more … hence, no credibiltity.
Amir speaks as does a memed and edited script, the audio heard aloud by a poor text-to-speech computer translation through a cheap soundcard … though there is no script, just a general tasking order …
Sadly, similar will continue and become far more common during critical incidents of import, as these techniques are reviewed, assessed and lessons learned … simply additional tools and techniques to add to those proudly touted in Iran ’53 and ad infinitum since …
Still Steel mon Ami

Posted by: Outraged | Jun 21 2009 2:18 utc | 103

Sam:
very selective quoting of my response.
I was saying if you actually care about the dissidents who were shot in the 80s you’d be on the side of montazeri who fought against khomeini and it cost him. and montazeri is on the side of mousavi.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 2:25 utc | 105

r’giap @ 46
[H]ow much dragonfly would like to see the situation militarised
Could you please stop ascribing motives to people you know nothing about?
How you move from 10 questions about the situation Parviz says he has seen to my wanting to militarize the situation — whatever that means — is beyond me. Could you tell me just how you make the connection?

Posted by: Dragonfly | Jun 21 2009 2:27 utc | 107

Amir @ 104
I wish he exhibited the thirst for truth so prevalent in the 60s rather than peppering his sentences with Americanized French.

Posted by: Dragonfly | Jun 21 2009 2:32 utc | 109

Amir S stated: This is a picture of Naghshe Jahan. You’ve never been there. You don’t know it takes 30 minutes to walk from one side to the other.
The square is about 500m long; it didn’t take me 30 minutes to cross when I was there in April.
Unfortunately you weaken your overall arguments when you include falsities like this.
And to those who fall back on “you don’t know my country / you have never been here” arguments, people on this forum are trying to make sense of what is going on.
If we could only comment on places we live in or have visited regularly, the forum would be quite dead.
Thanks, and keep up the good work everyone.

Posted by: Ash | Jun 21 2009 2:43 utc | 111

Dragon Fly @99:
Excellent post.
I did what you said, there are multiple cities with >100% vote counts.
In fact, it’s even worse than I thought. I took the census data from 2006 here and counted the whole population each township from the age 15 and up.
Then I compared to MOI numbers, and only counting the sum of AN MR MM and MK (not the disqualified ballots). Still there were countless with near 100% or over 100% turnout.
For example, I counted everyone from the age of 15 and up in the data of مازندران
a northern province of Iran:
votes pop district
تنكابن 138718 140978
رامسر 49630 48947
نور 76853 77009
etc.
and many many more.
more worrying the data for the highly contested regions آذربايجان شرقی and آذربايجان غربی (Mousavi’s home state) has gone missing from the census website.
Amir

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 2:48 utc | 113

Amir S, I did comment on the actual information you provided: the fact that you stated it takes 30 minutes to walk form one side to the other.
What I’m saying, your argument would have been stronger if you had left this falsehood out.
These “irrelevent details,” subsequently proven wrong, weaken any other statements you make, and hence bring into question your points.
I never questioned the amount of people there – I don’t know since I didn’t see it first hand.

Posted by: Ash | Jun 21 2009 3:09 utc | 115

to my knowledge it has happened at every historical conjuncture since moa began but especially since the israeli incursion in lebano in 2006. anti arab & @ anti muslim hysteria. people who had never visited here suddenly operating their own incursion & again during hell on gaza.
yep

Posted by: annie | Jun 21 2009 3:11 utc | 117

Ash:
If the statement that it take 30 minutes to walk cross the naghshejahan (when it really takes 20 minutes to walk around it) is the only problem you have the what I’ve said on this thread, then we’re pretty much in agreement.
Amir

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 3:22 utc | 119

With Friends like these….

SPEAKING FREELY
The American hand in Iran
By Trish Schuh
Dipping two fingers in red paint, Corsi waved a peace sign in solidarity “with the blood of oppressed Iranians” and called on “the spirit of Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King”. He declared, “I love the Iranian people. America does not hate the Persian people. We love the Persian people. We want peace and we love the Persian people.” Corsi’s voice then dropped to a whisper; “We stand here today and we pray in the name of the gods. I embrace Jesus Christ as my savior – and we also pray in the name of Allah, Zoroaster and the B’hai.”
But Corsi has expressed very different opinions on Islam in the past. According to his own postings on FreeRepublic.com, on November 18, 2001 Corsi used a racial slur to define Arabs: “Ragheads are boy-bumpers [sodomizers] as clearly as they are women haters – it all goes together.”
Using the incendiary style he perfected for “Swiftboat veteran” television attack advertisements, Corsi declares, “Islam is a peaceful religion as long as the women are beaten, the boys buggered and the infidels killed.” Comparing Islam to a disease, he added, “How’s this for an analogy? The Koran is simply the ‘software’ for producing deviant cancer cell political behavior and violence in human beings’ and Islam is like a virus. It affects the mind. Maybe even better as an analogy: it is a cancer that destroys the body it infects. No doctor would hesitate to eliminate cancer cells from the body.” In April 2004 Corsi said, “Let’s see why it isn’t the case that Islam is a worthless, dangerous, Satanic religion. Where’s the proof to the contrary?”
Surrounding Corsi at his walk were three dozen Los Angeles Iranian dissidents and pro-monarchists interviewed by an Orthodox Jewish journalist and by the CIA-backed Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Farda. The Los Angeles Times of March 20 revealed that “Tehrangeles” has become a crucial recruiting ground for Iranian expatriates who gather information for the US intelligence community. Also providing assistance are various Farsi language media which broadcast messages against the Iranian government into Iran.
According to the March 4 Los Angeles Times, the US currently spends US$14.7 million a year on Farsi “opposition broadcasts” into Iran. The Voice of America’s Farsi service reaches an estimated 15 million Iranians with news programs and websites, and the Bush administration has recently requested an additional $5.7 million for 2006 to expand the hours of transmission.
Los Angeles Farsi radio station KRSI noted the similarity between current US efforts and the CIA’s 1953 overthrow of Iran’s democratically elected premier Mohammed Mossadeq. When asked if he was CIA-affiliated, Corsi replied: “No, I’m not. I’ve never held a government position, never had any government position at all. I’ve been in universities. I’m an author. I’m in business. I’m not related to the CIA. It’s just not true.”
But when later asked how he became so committed to Iranian liberation, he explained, “When I was a young man I was an expert in antiterrorism and political violence. I had a top secret clearance when I was in universities and I worked to assist the State Department and the government.” Corsi’s publisher, Cumberland House, states in his biography that Corsi’s top secret clearance came from the government agency US Agency for International Development (USAID). USAID has often served as a conduit for American covert operations funding, under humanitarian auspices.
This writer asked Corsi about the Iran Freedom Foundation’s funding. He said the money came from sales of his book Atomic Iran and from private donations, adding that the IFF would apply for government funding when it became available.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GG06Ak03.html

Posted by: Yuri | Jun 21 2009 3:28 utc | 121

Your side was in power when Zahra Kazemi was brutally raped and tortured
my side? you mean the reformists? well they’re not my side. you clearly have no understanding how factional politics work. and even if they are my side they weren’t in power. try to get that through your thick head.
And you did selectively quote my response by leaving out:
the people who did stand up against these human rights abuses, i.e. Montazeri who lost his post as Khomeini’s successor due to his opposition are in Mousavi’s camp right now.
There was really nothing new in this post of yours, I don’t know why even bothered repeating yourself. (though I’m sure you’ll repeat yourself again)

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 3:35 utc | 123

[comment by Parviz via email – b.]
Thanks, f and Lysander, JohnH, Jawbone, Arnold Evans, DavidS — and my dear fellow countryman Amir S. except for the racist thing 😉
I appreciate the support of some of you because I’m having to argue with several people simultaneously who have used this thread to accuse me of racism, worship of capitalism, disdain for my fellow Iranian-Arabs and scorn for those less well off ….. while trying to type answers on this 10-metre wide page and at 01:00 a.m. after a really eventful day!
Let me put the ‘racism’ thing to bed before I myself go to bed: The Iranian Arabs fought against the Iraqis and helped free Khorramshahr Port in 1981. They have been mistreated by both the monarchy and by the mullahs in equal measure, gaining almost nothing from their tireless efforts in 50-degree celsius sun that generates 80 % of my country’s oil revenues. Ahwaz is a disgrace, no different from 100 years ago when oil was first discovered there. The people are lovely, honest, hard-working. So much for my “hatred of Arabs”.
Some will recall my intensified activity on this Blog during the Christmas invasion of Gaza, the link to the Song for Gaza (“We Will Not Go Down”) and my hundreds of comments ……. So much for my hatred of Arabs!
Finally, Imperialism: If the only way to combat imperialism/Zionism is by having as our President someone who has built a marble-paved road to the well down which the Missing Prophet allegedly disappeared at the age of 10 almost 1400 years ago, and who warns us every day that the prophet is going to emerge from the well to save mankind by destroying it first (???), then I would rather give in to Imperialism and come out with my hands held high and waving a white handkerchief. But I don’t agree that it’s “either/or”: I believe that a strong, democratic and wealthy Iran will have the same advantages as China does, in standing up for its rights, than does an Iran rife with corruption and brimming with missiles as was the Soviet Union (which collapsed for similar reasons).
The mullahs are destroying the country from within, and this won’t fulfil anyone’s anti-Imperialist dreams.
Oh, and yes, this makes me a “paid CIA stooge” according to ‘a’ who evidently hasn’t read anything I’ve written on politics during the past 12 months. Go back and read, then comment. And, by the way, how’s the pay?
Good night, everyone, while I continue my allegedly racist, genocidal, capitalist dreams of global empire in a world dominated by the U.S. and Israel and living off my illicit earnings as a ‘paid CIA stooge’ …….
I couldn’t post this for some reason so have asked ‘b’ to do me the honours.
[end comment by Parviz via email – b.]

Posted by: b | Jun 21 2009 3:50 utc | 125

[another comment by Parviz via email – b.]
Sorry, Dragonfly, just spotted your post. Quick answers:
1. I guess a million tried because there was a lot of movement around the perimeters (I guess most of the potential 3-4 million were discouraged by the threat of vastly increased violence) but only a few thousand got through. I and my friends didn’t because we were wearing green from head to toe and were picked out early.
2. The rallies so far were mainly students from ALL social classes, plus maybe 20 % older people, some of them (but not many) chadoris,= religious.
3. 1 1/2 hours.
4. I didn’t hear any shots between 15:30 – 17:00, but it turned really ugly during the early evening and I heard shots from my home which I assume came from Chamran Bridge. Everyone shouted Allah Akbar from rooftops louder than ever before.
5. Yes I can, having done 2 years of military service here in Iran (though we used MIs instead of Kalshnikovs in the Shah’s days)
6. There were infinitely more riot forces than jeeps, a much higher ratio than 1:20.
7. There were 4 distinct groups: a) Police milling around and keeping a low profile, b) the black-uniformed Pasdarans with helmets and bullet proof vests, high boots, batons and shields, c) the Baseej, some in light khaki uniform and others plain-clothed but all with just batons (and loads of motorbikes behind them) and, finally d) the fiercest bunches of Darth Vaders I’ve ever seen, protected from head to toe with heavy uniforms and with small satchels around their wastes (None of us knew what was in them). This last group facially resembled the Hamas and Hezbullah soldiers we see daily on news chanels but with a huge amount of additional personal equipment.
8. No, I didn’t notice the soft stuff, I was too intrigued by the heavy armour and the variety of forces on display.
9. Of course. Pasdaran = IRGC.
10. No. But they may have showed up later, and only at the square which we didn’t reach.
Must get some sleep.
[end comment by Parviz via email – b.]

Posted by: b | Jun 21 2009 3:52 utc | 127

Why, exactly, is Parviz given so much attention? Peter, Paul and Mary should have been a dead give away for anyone with half a brain, and yet here we are, people still arguing with obvious disinformation. For starters, there are no baseline facts in this ongoing debate. Let’s start with a list a questions.
1.) Who are the protesters?
2.) What do the protesters want?
3.) Who’s backing the protesters, if anyone?
4.) What, or Who, is the Regime when people say Regime Change? Is it Ahmadinejad and his henchmen? Is it Khamenai and Ahmadidnejad and their supporters? Is it the Mullahs, and the clerical rule, in general?
5.) What, exactly, is meant by reform when people refer to Reformist?
6.) Is Mousavi really all that different from Ahmadinejad?
7.) Do the candidates matter anymore, meaning has this now morphed into something much more?
There are many more basic questions that need to be answered, and are not be answered by Parviz, or the mainstream media. All we are getting is vague, but convenient propaganda, and that should make anyone suspicious, especially when you hear the ever familiar code words such as Regime Change.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21 2009 4:07 utc | 129

Sam:
Communists and leftists (americans or otherwise) fought against faschists in WWII, fighting along side the british and american war efforts. They supported the side of the imperialists and colonialists, though it was against everything they stood for. Sometimes you have to put aside your ideals when a great danger arrives, and you must choose alliances which don’t fit your views or ideology. It takes a bit of maturity to do this.
Ash:
I was reading over your comment again; you’re right, I shouldn’t have said 30 minutes. It was an exaggeration, and it hurt my argument. However, I do stand by the actually relevant numbers that I’ve posted here. For example the 200000 quoted in the same post. There are no exaggerations there.
Thanks for pointing this out to me. I have a tendency to sometimes say things like that in the “heat of the moment” and it hurts me in the long run.
—A.S.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 4:14 utc | 131

86 Back the System
The Assembly of Experts are supporting the Supreme Leader (check mate Hashemi!) so what does this mean that our heated debates, at times overly partisan, over the elections is now coming to an end?
So where does this leave Iran’s Republic? Does this signal a victory for the conservatives and the puttering out of the Reformist movement into the dustbin (perhaps to early of a eulogy for my taste) if so then what does this mean for the nature of Republican Iran? Where is the revolution of 79 heading and what does it mean for the revolutions promise of building a modern democratic state (formed from the will of the people) that is attentive to social justice?

Posted by: BenIAM | Jun 21 2009 4:35 utc | 133

Sam:
It’s a choice you never have to make.
For people in Iran it’s the only choice they can make.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 4:38 utc | 135

Amir S:
For people in Iran it’s the only choice they can make.
Bullshit, the people of Iran choose to support the religious dictatorship. The religious rulers draw their strength from the ability to call on the support of the faithful masses. 75 million people cannot be oppreseed by religious leaders unless they allow it period end of story. Those that seek real liberal democracy are a minority in Iran and every other country in the Middle East. There is no such thing as real democracy in the ME.
It’s no surprise that finally the Assembly of Experts has finally come out in support of the Supreme Leader for if this goes on the people might actually clue in and threaten their hold on power. I never argued over the legitamcy of the election because I think it is irrelevent. Choosing which moolahs ass you are going to have to kiss ain’t no democracy in my books.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 21 2009 5:01 utc | 137

Parviz @ 138:
WHOSE ‘side’? Certainly not my side, Amir’s side or the side of the peaceful protesters you have seen.
You need to pay attention to more than Amir’s last comments because even though he now denies that it is his side here is what he said in his first reply regarding the brutal rape and torture of a woman (whose only crime was trying to report on a student protest) in his own words:
The sepah was in power even when ‘my side’ the reformists had the presidency.
The Canadian government didn’t ask the sepah to return the body they asked the reformists in the presidency. You know the actual people that were elected to represent the country to the World for the moolahs in power. You have been whining since day one that the wrong person won the elections and when it is revealed that there isn’t much difference now you are all distancing yourself’s from the so called reformers. What’s with that? If the reformers have no power when they are actually elected into power then why have you been arguing about the elections in the first place?

Posted by: Sam | Jun 21 2009 5:31 utc | 139

@Parviz 138
Award for verbal filth … oh no, that would go to Amir for his “… you cunt” and ” … douchenozzle …” whatever that is … 😉
You mock this blog, your ridicule and patronise the host, you dismiss anything other than a subserviant viewpoint in utter obesiance, you fling invective and abuse at other posters as a monkey flings it own faeces … you repeat ad nauseum already challenged, unsupported claims … yet you claim you are unfairly treated and the non-iranian posters ‘one-sided’ … can’t have it both ways …
BUT MOST OF ALL, you claim first hand, Hamas, Hezbollah and Arab stormtroopers ‘on the ground’, defending the regime, standing in line with riot police and Basij militia … SIMPLY COMPLETE AND UTTER BULLSHIT !

Posted by: Outraged | Jun 21 2009 5:44 utc | 141

… CIA/Mossad plant eh? Another one for my ever expanding crank-list.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 5:59 utc | 143

Iran Khodro Auto Workers Begin Work Slowdown to Protest the Regime
by Al Giordano – June 18, 2009 at 6:32 pm
The workers of the Khodro automobile company in Iran today issued the following declaration (translated for The Field from the original Farsi by Iraj Omidvar):
Strike in Iran Khodro:
We declare our solidarity with the movement of the people of Iran.
http://tinyurl.com/nhjzfu

Posted by: yuri | Jun 21 2009 6:22 utc | 145

do iranians resisting their allegedly fraudulent elections feel any sense of solidarity with other flashes of resistance against exploitation and corruption?
Yes. more than flashes in fact.
We just find it insulting when our struggle is dismissed, because of a misplaced admiration for AN on the part of the left.
Yuri:
Very interesting news! The IranKhodro strike is important. I can sleep easy tonight. (incidentally this is even more evidence that this is not a gucci revolution, though that debate is long gone and irrelevant by now)
I wonder if we’ll see similar strikes in industries owned by the Sepah. you have to keep in mind, the strike which will win this battle and cripple AN is a strike in the oil industry. The oil industry is owned by the Sepah so this may be less likely.
Also, Mousavi has declared strikes should be called if he is jailed.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 7:00 utc | 147

I promised to answer Praviz :
MoA threads and comments were so one-sided that I left the Blog, but I’ve decided to stop lurking and recommenced commenting out of a sense of responsibility to your armchair intellectuals, and especially in support of those non-Iranian posters (God bless them) who are continuing to ask the same questions I and others repeatedly asked and to which you pointedly refused to respond.
If you want to see one sided discussions turn on the BBC etc. This blog is certainly one of very few where nearly all sides can be heard and where simple assertions are not swallowed down hook, line and sinker.
(Some examples: How can you defend “counting” done in complete secret by security officials?
To my very best knowledge counting was done in the local precincts (45,000+) with 6 officials in each and (mostly) party folks of all sides present and the results were reported up the chain to the interior ministry which published the (first partial) results. Please provide information that proves something else. (BTW – not even Mousavi alleged what you do – he only claims that is SOME precincts his observers were turned away – Iran’s laws demands such IF the observers in the voting locality attempt to influence voters. Could that have happened?)
What about Karroubi’s missing 7 million votes?
Who but Karroubi is alleging that he got 7 million votes? Proof? Witnesses?
What about the statement of powerful Ayatollahs in the Holy City of Qom – Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri, Sanei and the Qom Seminary — that the election was rigged?
Well – what about the statements of the powerful NYT or statements by other Ayatollahs?
Why does the Guardian Council say it needs 10 days to check 10 % of votes when the ENTIRE election votes were allegedly counted in just one hour?
Ten days is the total legal frame set for the Guardian council to investigate claims of election fraud. Given that there 646 official (from the opposition) claims of such fraud, ten days seems quite a short timeframe to me.
Exactly how ‘random’ do you think those ‘samples’ will be?
As random as the opposition observers, who were invited to take part in the process, will allow it to be.
Why do all the titles of your threads invariably defend Khamenei/Ahmadinejad and cast doubts on Moussavi’s credibility
Titles of my posts on the Iranian election (latest first):
– Parviz: Khamenei’s Aura of Invincibility Shattered
– The Real Clashes Have Begun
– Another Iran Election Thread
– Early Results No Sign For Fraud
– Christian Science Monitor’s False Reporting
– What Are Mousavi’s Plans?
– Cognitive Dissonance II
– Cognitive Dissonace
– Debs Take On Iran’s Election
– Some Dots You May Want To Connect
– More On The Iran Election
– A ‘Coup’ in Iran? We Don’t Know.
– Iran’s Election
Please point out which of those titles exactly defends “Khamenei/Ahmadinejad and cast doubts on Moussavi’s credibility”
But indeed I find Moussavi’s claim dubious because Moussavi announced his victory before any votes were counted at all and he has brought up ZERO evidence for his election-fraud claims.
Who won the election?
As repeated several times: We do not know
and on the broad-based strength of the protest movement that reached 3 million on Thursday in Tehran alone? etc.,.):
3 million in Tehran city, where Miusavi did win a majority according to the official results, ain’t the majority but just a big crowd.
Today I tried to participate in the peaceful demonstration (which is permitted under Article 27 of the very same Islamic Constitution that the Islamicists have subverted, meaning that no Interior Ministry permit is constitutionally necessary),
Article 27 of the Iranian constitution says:

Public gatherings and marches may be freely held, provided arms are not carried and that they are not detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam.

Please compare that Article 27 to Article 8 of the German constitution (pdf):

Article 8
[Freedom of assembly]
(1) All Germans shall have the right to assemble peacefully and unarmed
without prior notification or permission.
(2) In the case of outdoor assemblies, this right may be restricted by or
pursuant to a law.

Now I can not judge what is “detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam” or what restriction German laws have on outdoor assemblies, but I am sure some folks will have well founded opinions on that.
and managed to walk past huge groupings of riot police, Revolutionary Guards and plainclothes militia (Baseej), plus huge numbers of Arab troops (I guess on loan from Hamas and Hezbollah), all heavily armed and wielding truncheons and other weapons. Near Tehran University (= 2 km from Enghelab Square where the peaceful demonstration was to occur) I was stopped by some ugly looking Baseej group which threatened to beat me and my friends up if we walked even one step further south.
Typical crowd control as usual in any state I am aware of. The Hamas and (Lebanese) Hizbollah claim is laughable. Fisk certainly knows Lebanese Hizbullah: Robert Fisk’s World: In Tehran, fantasy and reality make uneasy bedfellows

Now for the very latest on the fantasy circuit. The cruel “Iranian” cops aren’t Iranian at all. They are members of Lebanon’s Hizbollah militia. I’ve had this one from two reporters, three phone callers (one from Lebanon) and a British politician. I’ve tried to talk to the cops. They cannot understand Arabic. They don’t even look like Arabs, let alone Lebanese. The reality is that many of these street thugs have been brought in from Baluch areas and Zobal province, close to the Afghan border. Even more are Iranian Azeris. Their accents sound as strange to Tehranis as would a Belfast accent to a Cornishman hearing it for the first time.
Fantasy and reality make uneasy bedfellows, but once they are combined and spread with high-speed inaccuracy around the world, they are also lethal.

I believe (but have no proof) that the ‘coincidental’ bomb explosion near Khomeini’s tomb was set off by the regime itself as an excuse for an even harder crackdown.
Well – slothrop believes it was the mossad.
I? I do not know, nor does anyone else as far as I am aware of.

Posted by: b | Jun 21 2009 7:17 utc | 149

@Parviz,
Sorry about that, did not want to cause personal hurt, however your extreme position on this issue has generated such a response. I think you are too emotionally involved in the situation, and your personal likes and dislikes are over-shadowing the ability of making an objective analysis.
So even if the opposition were to win what real change would it bring to Iran, other than they are backed by a different set of Mullahs who are even more corrupt. Too many experienced commentators and observers are seeing a CIA backing to this. I have read a number of your posts before on other issues, however on this, I think you are being extremely naive and refusing to see the whole picture. Either this, or my other conclusion. And then of course you are liberally mixing fiction with facts in your posts.
BTW, the CIA foot soldier hardly ever makes any money, so if you are smart you will have to move up the food chain 🙂

Posted by: a | Jun 21 2009 7:55 utc | 151

@Amir S. @113
Dragon Fly @99:
Excellent post.
I did what you said, there are multiple cities with >100% vote counts.
In fact, it’s even worse than I thought. I took the census data from 2006 here and counted the whole population each township from the age 15 and up.
That proves exactly what?
That in Iran you can vote in any election locality provided you have your identification papers.
The vote was on a long weekend and people from the cities may well have been visiting their friends and families in their hometowns and might have voted there.
Can I prove that? No. But the numbers do not prove the opposite either.
Besides of that – voting age in Iran is 16 not 15 – wonder why you do not know that.

Posted by: b | Jun 21 2009 7:57 utc | 153

b: btw I’m pretty sure voting age in Iran is 15. Though I don’t remember exactly. haven’t been 15 for a while.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 8:05 utc | 155

I’m going to be leaving for a while (some days). So I won’t be able to reply to people’s messages. Interesting forum. Nice people. Thanks b. sorry if I was an asshole. I get a bit aggressive during arguments. Particularly when they’re close to home.
Amir

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21 2009 8:19 utc | 157

Amir
Voting age was raised to 16 about a decade ago if I’m not mistaken.
It doesn’t materially affect the argument though – since the 1997 reformist landslide, repeated in 2001, a good 15 million new voters have been added to the electoral roll, and thus far no-one has come up with any analysis why in general this group has voted in massive, and likely disproportionate, numbers for Ahmadinejad, and more specifically, why the most educated female population cohort in Iranian history has also overwhelmingly favoured him. If we’re to take the 64% vote for Ahmadinejad seriously – which I don’t for one moment – in his local setting his level of support is a good deal more intense than Obama’s is in the US, and Mousavi – well, he’s no John McCain.
B – whilst it’s true that people can vote anywhere, there would have to be a corresponding drop-off in participation rates elsewhere to match it, and this should be readily observable. I’d also add that you could reasonably assert that the drop-off would be very noticeable in the large metropolitan centres – ie Teheran, Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz and possibly Mashhad.

Posted by: dan | Jun 21 2009 9:43 utc | 159

B
Where are the election officials – there are some 270,000 across Iran directly involved in the supervision of the ballot according to the info given – coming forward to validate that the process was beyond reproach. A rough estimate suggests that some 1/2% of the voting age Iranian population was involved in running the election…..
Thus far I’ve seen nothing to corroborate the converse – election officials interviewed on domestic Iranian media country-wide saying, yup, we did it all correctly and the results in my neck of the woods are 100% correct.

Posted by: dan | Jun 21 2009 10:06 utc | 161

Thanks, AmirS, your post 152 should be required reading for all. Don’t stay away too long since, as Copeland has warned, we on-the-spot Iranians are vastly outnumbered by the armchair skeptics, critics and pseudo intellectuals who refuse to believe what is developing before their very eyes despite stifling censorship.
The prize for MoA’s Most Illogical Poster goes to poor Sam who asks why the regime is still in power if I claim it’s so unpopular. He forgets the Soviet Union stayed in power for 75 years but collapsed within 72 hours only after the masses saw genuine hope for its collapse. Sam denigrates the courage of 3000 unarmed students against thousands of Darth Vaders as proof that “nobody bothered to show up”, even though I explained in minute detail why ‘only’ 3000 got through.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 10:44 utc | 163

b, thanks for responding. You actually proved my point: The only thread that states the vote was rigged was mine, and with my title. The nonsense thread by Debs, who has zero knowledge of what’s going on inside Iran, and your repeated suggestions that there was no vote-rigging, are reflected in just 2 of the threads I repeat below:
– Early Results No Sign For Fraud
– Christian Science Monitor’s False Reporting
Even “What Are Moussavi’s Plans” thread was surreptitiously diverted from a discussion of his ‘plans’ to your skepticism about the rigging! The thread should have stuck to Moussavi’s plans.
Your ‘Cognitive Dissonance’ was the ultimate disgrace, asking how the picture fits the text. Everybody knews the picture was of the incumbent President. It was just a picture, but you made a big thing of it instead of examining the vote rigging that has been discussed subsequently in detail.
Unfortunately this Blog is dominated by a few short-sighted (dare I say ‘blind’?) ideologists who believe that ANY regime, no matter how domestically evil, is to be praised and protected as long as it opposes imperialism. These ideologists don’t realize that such brutal regimes invariably dig their own graves and collapse as did the Soviet Union, thereby making them even easier prey for imperialism. It seems the armchair ideologists have no sense of history.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 11:06 utc | 165

b (160), you simply won’t admit there was fraud, will you? The TFT poll was taken THREE WEEKS before the vote, while the sea change in opinion occurred DURING THE ACTUAL WEEK of the vote when the entire sewage of the Islamic Republic was exhibited before 50 million viewers and two of the candidates swore they were going to change the Constitution.
Everybody I know, literally everybody, including myself, had decided not to bother to vote (= “voter apathy”), until the debates occurred and sparks really flew with accusation and counter-accusation about fraud and mismanagement. Ahmadinejad made a complete ass of himself before 50 million viewers, claiming that steel production was 17 million tons (it is 11 million tons, less than in Khatemi’s time) and that inflation was 14 % (The Iranian Central Bank had front page announcements in all newspapers the next day stating the figure was 25 %, = double the inflation rate he inherited!).
Ex British premier Harold Wilson used to say that “in politics one week is a long time”, but in this case it was an eternity, sufficient to mobilize the 20 million who boycotted the vote in 2005 and who actually voted this time by the regime’s own admission. Now, whom do you think these “apathetic voters”, who suddenly and inexplicably cast their “apathy” aside, decided to actually vote for?
By the way, you wrote (153):
“Besides of that – voting age in Iran is 16 not 15 – wonder why you do not know that.”
Wrong again. It is 18 and the heavily Ahmadinejad-stacked Parliament refused a reduction to 15 to prevent an even greater youth vote against their incumbent monkey:

Press TV

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 11:37 utc | 167

me @ 146: AND WHY DO YOU CARE ABOUT WHAT WE THINK HERE @ MoA?
it’s a simple question. any takers?

Posted by: Lizard | Jun 21 2009 12:18 utc | 169

‘Iron Man’, I provided the link, so who’s the ‘asshole’? Do you know how to open a link? Ahmadinejad changed his mind when he understood the effects of a lower voting age.
Thoughtful commentators? Oh, I suppose you mean Anonymous, Obamageddon, Outraged and Sam, to mention a few.
As for the host, whose Blog and skills I have admired right up until this election, I provided a detailed analysis of the reasons I considered his entire approach subjective and skewed (Posts 165/167). Can’t you read?

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 13:04 utc | 171

even your own link calls out your disinformation.
it says

President Ahmadinejad had argued that the proposed bill would boost the engagement of the young generation in the country’s social and political scene. He named the move “the ninth government’s gift to the students.

and you say

Ahmadinejad changed his mind when he understood the effects of a lower voting age.

In 2007 Parliament raised the voting age over the objection of AN Times of India
so, I can open links and did, I also know how to create them and did. You however are capable of only repeating the same BS and are completely oblivious to reality seemingly able to only follow your Lincoln Group script to the tee.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 21 2009 13:47 utc | 173

iron man, I only provided the link to show the voting age, which I did. State-run Press TV usually presents the facts but not the correct background or interpretation.
I don’t have an agenda. If you think I do, then tell me what it is?
Pro-Israel? (So why have I supported the Palestinian cause so strongly?)
Pro-U.S.A.? (So why have I slammed the U.S. foreign policy at every opportunity?)
Pro-Capitalism? (So why have I slammed U.S.-style capitalism so strongly and recommended the U.S. at least adopt German/French welfare reforms and basic security instead of that “hired is fired” shit?)
So who is ‘guiding me’, as you suggest? You claim I have an agenda but never say which one or even attempt to describe it.
Come on, you can do better than that! This isn’t a kindergarten where you can throw accusations without even beginning to explain what those accusations are.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 14:01 utc | 175

it is absolutely clear to me that some of new visitors are a losed shop & the management has gone home. they are neither open to discourse nnor open to any real interrogation. for that reason, the repitition. the repitition of talking points that are themselves oranically chaotic & thus possess no fluidity
parviz i’ll read because he has in his own way walked towards his version of the ‘truth. loyal also represents a real voice. the others, less so.
so much less so that i imagine they are doing so from the comfortable offices of exile oorganisations

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21 2009 14:14 utc | 177

ok, this is tiring and I will not bore anyone any longer.
You provided the Press TV link without reading it and stated that AN opposed lowering the voting age. Other sources also say that AN supported leaving the voting age at 15, you can find them if you wanted to. I did include the Times of India just to not have you discredit me for quoting an official Iranian news source.
Why did you not call out your friends when they continued to state that the voting numbers were all skewed when you included 15 year old voters? Why would you let them spread BS if you are trying to show you are authentic? Makes no sense, if you lie about one thing your credibility is shot. You still dance around the issue by making counter accusations and changing the subject.
the biggest whopper of them all is for you to flatly state you have no agenda.
You and your friends have come here and shit all over the floor and now are demanding that our host provide you will answers. at the very least that is impolite and I find it quite offensive. You were certainly afforded every courtesy when you started posting here.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 21 2009 14:24 utc | 179

today witnesses another day where there is little or no expression of a mass movement. repression explains only a small part of that. genuine mass movements – simply by their numbers have their own unstoppable force. that is why i have waited to see if a general strike is a real possibility. i don’t think it is – largely because the people required to do that – while perhaps not sypatheric to ahmedinijad are not sympathetic to the oppostion.
moussavi says he wants to be a martyr but i think it is the people he wants martyred

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21 2009 14:36 utc | 181

Lizard:
“ha, ha, ha. good one. pro-bank bailout, and supporter of AIG executives. you are fucking hilarious, parviz.”
You show your lying and weak intellect. I never supported U.S.-style capitalism but merely stated that the sinking ship had to have its holes plugged before it could be towed to harbour for major repairs.
I explained why allowing banks to fail would create even greater economic distress and defeat the purpose. I also stated that the entire banking and insurance system has to be subjected to strict regulation.
No, it’s you who are not only ‘fucking hilarious’ but an intellectual lightweight to boot.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 14:41 utc | 183

No, it’s you who are not only ‘fucking hilarious’ but an intellectual lightweight to boot.
i agree, i am an intellectual lightweight, which is why i frequent this whiskey bar with an open mind; to learn.
you, on the other hand, have been making gross generalizations about the commentary here since you started coming around these parts. your agenda is clear to even an intellectual lightweight like myself: to persuade us that your interpretation of a complicated situation is the correct one, and one of your pathetic tactics is to belittle and demean anyone who has alternatives interpretations.

Posted by: Lizard | Jun 21 2009 14:50 utc | 185

why did you not correct the false assertation of voting age by Amir? Did you not know or was the deception deliberate? Since you choose not to reply I assume it was intentional.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 21 2009 15:13 utc | 187

Iron Man:
“why did you not correct the false assertation of voting age by Amir? Did you not know or was the deception deliberate? Since you choose not to reply I assume it was intentional.
I was asleep at the time. You’re asleep ALL the time.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 16:21 utc | 189

(182), You’re not a lizard but a snake: You selectively and conveniently omitted my other statements on the same thread, e.g.,
“China_Hand2, I fully agree with you that “the Tsunami is yet to come”, which is why I wrote this piece.
I also agree that corrupt bankers and corporate chiefs should be thrown into prison. What I disagree with is closing some of the corrupt corporations and institutions that can clearly be nurtured back to health. They should be assisted with new management, thereby minimizing the disruption to an economy that is already in I.C..
or
Put the crooks in jail, increase fines, raise capital ratios for banks, cap lending rates at LIBOR Plus 3 %, tighten regulations and regulatory control, educate the public, improve educational standards, impose welfare and health care reform, smash the political lobbies and the corporate monopolies, ……
To the above I would add imposition of an additional 50 cent/gallon gasoline tax, the elimination of agro/steel subsidies that keep these sectors bloated and backward, elimination of all tax loopholes for the rich, etc.,.
I just don’t believe Obama can achieve the above (at a cost of even greater disruption and an additional $ 10 trillion deficit) overnight. It will take time.
On Obama’s foreign policy, however, I believe he could and should have been far bolder. He’s messing up big-time.
Duplicitous bastard? Look in the mirror, you pathetic creature. Did you lose money gambling on AIG? Is that what has made you so mad? When have I ever defended U.S.-style, laissez-faire Capitalism?

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21 2009 16:44 utc | 191

i didn’t lose money on AIG, just confidence in an elected leaders ability to identify the problem, and act decisively, as evidenced by the continuing attempt to re-regulate a totally fucked financial sector by using corrupt institutions as regulatory lynch pins, like the fed.
your depiction of Liddy, though, was laughable, and your depiction of “the majority of MoA posters” an over-generalization, and that’s what i’m trying to get at. it’s the patronizing arrogance of your tone that bugged the hell out of me then, and generally makes me not want to listen to you now, regardless of how valid some of your points may be. i think the more you try to bash people over the head with your interpretation, the more you are doing a disservice to your cause.

Posted by: Lizard | Jun 21 2009 18:07 utc | 193

I don’t intend to evangelize, I just believe I’ve investigated the various faiths, and that is my take away. I imagine many/some haven’t investigated it so closely, or have dismissed “religion” as ugly and necessarily flawed. All human institutions are flawed, Islam, specifically the Suni/Sufi are apparently the most austere and least hierarchical.
Parvis, I think you mistake our perspective vis a vis Iran. We are Americans, Westerners generally, we are all deeply committed citizens trying to discern the political landscape. Everyone here has moved beyond the promises of the two parties, best I can tell. We see a run away military intelligence complex. Most of us see Israel as cog in that machine, a machine that holds no prejudices, no party affiliation, no ideology, save greed, creative destruction as one put it.
Your little rabble raising is intensely interesting to everyone here. We are trying to discern truth from fiction. We are hearing ONE story from our press, we know we’re supporting dissidents, we know our history.
This country has never failed to interject itself into the democratic process in any country of concern in it’s sphere of influence.
You’re probably right, I’m fucking nuts. It really doesn’t matter, you’ve got an opening, a chance. But, “getting your vote counted,” is nebulous. There is the first kilometer in a marathon, a better word is jihad. Cause this is a daily struggle for each of us in every country.
I don’t know if our votes are counted here. But we Americans have experienced over the last decade an America that is totally divided. American social circles are as likely divided among political affiliation as any other factor, save wealth. Those aren’t exactly different categories, but truly the political divide runs deeper than the wealth divide.
So, here in America we experienced 3 Presidential elections where we were so divided, the aggrieved party couldn’t believe the polls. As a third party voter, I wonder if our votes are counted or marked and discounted.
Finally Parvis, I don’t think anyone here supports the Iranian Political establishment. But if you were honest, you probably don’t hang too tight with the real religious folk among you. Those people withdraw from you, and you them. I imagine the people of Iran are like most Arabs, as venerable trading cultures. I imagine when you visit the hinterlands of Iran those merchants, the curious are either professionally tolerant or your kindred spirits.
It’s so easy to get a skewed view of the world. “Seems like everyone I know does X” is captured nicely by the old cliche, “birds of a feather.” So we wonder about the objectivity of your, and the twitters that are coming out of Iran.
Do you think the kids that are on Twitter are the more conservative or progressive among your lot? We have to consider the contrary, as this certainly is not a totally black and white issue, being a human event.
We have to seek to discover the role our gov’t might be playing, what propaganda they are forwarding. That is our duty, yours is to raise hell, and take notes.
Try to challenge your own biases, be as skeptical as we are, and report the facts that pass that scrutiny as facts. You’ve been hammered enough for your conjectures, but try to clearly label such as such.
Finally please go back and answer those 15 questions as best you can. I don’t think they were vicious, but very revealing. You have a bias, that is fine, but try to be forthcoming about conjecture with us, and yourself.
Good Luck, and peace be with you.

Posted by: scott | Jun 21 2009 18:19 utc | 195

Parviz, a hopeful point, the American Revolution was only supported by 1/3 of the people, a third didn’t care and 1/3 supported the crown. So, you got the numbers, I don’t think the Iranian Army wants to shoot unarmed kids, you should go, get your prayer rugs and sit in the streets.
That would be the best strike. When you’re walking around, you can be pushed. If you got the numbers, sit on the sidewalks, if it swells to the street.
Seriously, if you got any balls, go, buy a prayer rug and get it started.

Posted by: scott | Jun 21 2009 18:28 utc | 197

b @ 158
Before the apparatchik pounce on me, calling me all sorts of names, let me give you a disclaimer:
1. I am not a Jew, nor American nor Israeli, nor the Iranian opposition abroad.
2. I am a practicing statistician and political economist. So I might know a thing or two about these matters.
3. I have studied, lived and worked in Iran for three decades. The nature of what I used to do is irrelevant to this discussion.
Your disparaging of the poor PhD candidate at Columbia
It does not prove anything but that those PhD political science candidates who wrote that up need some more statistic lessons.
Statistical inference cannot by nature prove a statement. All it can do is to reject or fail to reject a statement. Failure to reject is not tantamount to acceptance or proof. So even if his method was correct, he can never prove anything. He can simply reject fraud or fail to reject fraud.
Utter lack of understanding of the Iranian electoral process
If the votes were not counted at the local precincts why is nobody coming forward and says just that. Where are 45,000 precinct x 6 officials = 300,000 people who say the votes were NOT counted locally?
This line of argument shows that your knowledge of the Iranian electoral process is at best rudimentary. Each polling station is staffed by local election administrators picked by the MOI and approved by the GC; MOI, GC and candidates’ representatives. Election administrators used to be trusted people in the neighborhood who regularly attend the mosque, the principal of the neighborhood school, the staff of a hospital that was chosen as the polling station and so forth. Not in this election. In this election the overwhelming number of election administrators are handpicked to be from the local Basij militia given all the anecdotal and snowball sampling evidence that I have.
My own experience as an election representative for the MOI and GC in the 1990s and early 2000s was that as a standard measure most GC representatives would be either from the IRGC or the Basij or at the minimum conservative political factions. What makes this election different is that in most cases the IRGC, Basij and others deemed “loyal” to the system administered the election as well. Here is the most important part: A candidate’s representative by law cannot intervene in anything. He can observe and observe only. He cannot stand close to the voters; he cannot stand close to the ballot box; he cannot talk to election administrators. All he can do is observe. Crucially, he can voice his concerns about some irregularity to the GC representative on the spot, but here is the catch: If he does, he is highly likely to be booted out of the polling station by the MOI or GC representatives; it is practically impossible for the campaign to have him reinstated in time. So almost all candidate representatives stand aside and report the irregularities they see to their respective campaigns: For example, we noticed that the GC representative is coaching voters at polling station 200. This is all they can do during the election. In this election they could hardly do that either, because the SMS and some cell phone services were reported to have been spotty at best. The same applies when it comes to counting the votes. It is quite easy to simply kick the candidates’ representatives out on any pretext (Who is there to say the MOI representative overstepped his bounds? Will he be prosecuted? Will the GC representative be prosecuted for illegally throwing out a candidate representative? Is there any competent court in the country mandated to hear these complaints? If you answered no to all of the questions above, pat yourself on the back.), because the vote in a polling station is certified by the election administrators and the MOI and GC representatives, not by the candidates’ representatives. The signature of the candidates’ representatives is not required for certification. So the election officials can simply count the votes either in front of the candidates’ representatives or not and are not obliged to tell the candidates’ representatives what the tally is; finally they do not provide candidates’ representatives a certificate with their own signatures that spells out the final tally of the polling station. Therefore, they cannot be held accountable by the campaigns later. No campaign can tell the MOI that your representatives have certified that we received these many votes in this polling station, but now you are giving us a different number. So it is not like the campaigns have the final tally of each polling station once the votes are counted. In most cases they don’t. That is why fraud is quite easy once the ballot box is moved by the Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) to the Governor’s Office. A ballot box can be certified and re-certified, since no certificate is issued to the candidates’ representatives on the spot.
The data that hint at fraud
I will deal with this issue in another post.
Releasing the polling station numbers
A week is an eternity for an administration whose President has made lying with numbers a daily habit. This is hard to catch because as I mentioned above there is no tally that the campaigns can compare the newly released numbers against.
Head of MOI
Head of MoI – well I guess the head of the German MoI is also member of the currently ruling party. One usually does not put an opposition figure in ones cabinet.
With all due respect b, comparing a mature, institutionalized democracy that does have a reasonably independent judiciary with a Janus-faced government in Iran that is partly democratic, partly theocratic is utterly pathetic.
Poor MOI employees
There are thousands of people working in the MoI and hundred thousands who have worked as election officials. Why ain’t they coming forward if something was fraudulent? Is there no one sympathetic to the opposition in that huge group?
Some did before the election. But what if they don’t? Who would protect them against the government when everyone in the country has known for a long time who the preferred candidate by the Ayatollah Khamenei is?
There is no way for a recount to be fair as I mentioned satirically in another post. It is surprising how you guys impose your own understanding of how an election is run and how a recount works on the Iranian system without much compunction. Sad!

Posted by: Dragonfly | Jun 21 2009 19:06 utc | 199