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Iran’s Election
Today Iran has the first round of presidential election. If none of the four candidates reaches 50% of the votes another round with the top two candidates will be held on June 19.
The Guardian headlines Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faces defeat if election not rigged, say Iranian experts. That is, of course total nonsense.
There are no reliable polls available. Despite the plural in the headline the Guardian only asked one expert, Saeed Lelyaz, who is an economist and certainly not political neutral. That "expert" saying something is just the usual shaping of expectations. Few if any "experts" predicted Ahmadinejad's huge win in the last election.
The "west" is hoping for "change" in Iran. Not much change will come whoever gets elected.
While the tone in the foreign policy may change the substance will not. This not because Iran does not want to change its policies but because the "west" will overreach. If Ahmadinejad wins they will accuse all Iranians as standing behind his words and use that argument to ratch up sanctions. If Mousavi wins the "west" will increase its demands and leave him no face saving way but to turn away from the "offer".
Local economic policies may well change as Mousavi has a different client group than Ahmadinejad and will have to satisfy some of its demands. But just like about anywhere the structure of the economic and political system in Iran does not allow for big fast moves and it may take years before results of new economic policies become visible.
Real structural change – to the left or to the right – will not be allowed. Any attempt for a color revolution like event will be shot down immediately and, if needed, brutally.
Still, within its system Iran allows much more freedom than any other country in the area. The real fear the Arab dictatorships have of Iran is that their masses may eventually want to follow its much more progressive example. A victory by Mousavi may indeed lead to more change on the west coast of the Persian Gulf than on its eastern side.
Ech. Looked at the first line and thought this had been posted:
@Lysander:
Absolutely.
Russia and China are already in stable agreement with Iran, and if Europe wants to pull out of this econonmic slump it’s going to need to engage both of those giants. Thus, any act by Isreal to unilaterally strike Iran is going to drive what would certainly be an insurmountable wedge between Europe, the U.S., and Japan — and would probably immediately destroy NATO.
For my part, the basic distinction between the Democrats and Rethuglicans is that the former wants to preserve NATO and the UN, while the latter wants to dissolve them in pursuit of unilateral Empire.
From the NYT:
Almost from the beginning of the crisis, the United States and Europe chose largely different paths to aiding their economies. The most stark was Washington’s willingness to commit hundreds of billions of dollars to stimulus spending — in addition to moving aggressively to shore up banks and keep credit flowing — versus Europe’s worry that similar spending would increase inflation in the future.
The NYT is hailing the last few months of economic activity as a U.S. victory; it’s doing so as a loyal propagandist, and the two countries it serves are clearly Israel (via, ironically enough, Evangelical Christianity) and the U.S. I, however, see the preceing few months as the calm before the storm, and i think an awful lot of Europeans do, too (although i’ll add: the Europeans who do certainly aren’t here in Taiwan, because most of those i meet here are reactionary German, British, and Central European fascists who are convinced the U.S. is destined to rule for-e-vah!). The European elite seem to be taking a (wisely) long-term, wait-and-see view towards this crisis, whereas — as the Nation article says — “This crisis brought down the world economy and yet Congress still hasn’t passed a bill making sure it doesn’t happen again” (nor even had a public discussion about why that might be something to think about).
Outside of Asia, my key foreign-policy bellweathers are Central/South America and Central/Eastern Europe (i’m a relative ignoramus about Africa, and b_real’s another reason why i love this community so much). East Europe, as b reported earlier today, may well be headed towards an Asian-style meltdown a la 1997. Regardless if that happens or not, the region is already putting an awful strain on NATO, and is pushing Germany and France to build some significant bridges with Russia (which is already divesting itself of U.S. securities in favor of the IMF – a step that can be seen as preparatory to underwriting European debt, instead, which would array them with Europe much like the current Chinese-U.S.A. relationship).
I’ve been harping on the call by China to create a new world currency; most folks in the West, as i sense it, perceive it as a hubristic tactical move by an upstart power, but i see it far more as an overture to Europe that says “Hey — we’ve got five times the population of the U.S, and twenty times the history. We were around when Jesus was kicking at the moneylenders. We’re happy to let colonial bygones be bygones, and join up with you as a full-fledged economic partner under a neutral currency. Just give us the word.” At the same time, Taiwan has developed scientific and technological parks that are practically the equal to that of the U.S. or Japan — they are only lacking the talent pool. The management systems in place will be able to run with it, and Taiwan and China are very close to re-unifying. The U.S. knows this. So does Europe. Only “us” — the “public” — doesn’t (and that’s what worries me; that when the U.S. squares off over Taiwan, it’ll be Iraq all over again).
So Central Europe is poised to perhaps swing back towards Russia in a reaction against the emerging crisis, while non-White America is basically either moving towards China, or rending itself to shreds trying to get away from the U.S. (Mexico, yeah?).
Now, Israel tosses off a few nukes into Iran.
What do you think all those Central European and Central Asian countries are going to do?
Turn around and embrace the U.S. like a brother, make it tea and invite it in to marry the first daughter?
I doubt it.
And i’d guess in this case: if i doubt it, then so does the Pentagon.
Posted by: china_hand2 | Jun 12 2009 18:15 utc | 13
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