by Arnold Evans
lifted from comment 211
I want to say that I am in favor of change in Iran and think there
are policies of Iran's government that are wrong both morally in
respect to its citizens and also in practical terms as in they prevent
Iran from being as powerful as I'd like it to be.
I am not a regime supporter on the basis of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
But it seems plausible to me that Ahmadinejad won. The reports of
the three million votes came with the explanation that they were the
result of people voting away from their home district, which seems
plausible in a very-high turnout election. I think it is possible that
Ahmadinejad won the debates, despite the effect they had of turning you
further against him, and Rafsanjani's letter against him may have made
the aftermath of the debates more favorable to him still.
So there are protesters against Ahmadinejad and in favor of Mousavi.
Mondale lost a landslide in 1984 and there was a large number of people
who supported Mondale, enough to cripple the country if they organized
together to do so. That did not mean they were the majority. I do not
believe Mousavi supporters or protesters are the majority of the
country.
The reports of Mousavi's claims of irregularities seem unconvincing
to me. In his public complaint to the Guardian Council he did not claim
that none of the votes were counted or that all local-based counting
was suspended and even if he doesn't trust the Guardian Council, that
was a place to give his best explanation of what exactly he believes
went wrong with the election, why he does not trust it.
I feel that Mousavi is acting very irresponsibly, and that Mondale,
in similar circumstances could have acted the same and gotten his
supporters, especially his core supporters worked up enough that they
would risk their lives, essentially for nothing, but Mondale could
claim it is for fundamental change in the government or society or
something.
If Mondale did that, I would wonder if he had some organized outside
backing, but in Mousavi's case it could well be that his only backing
is Rafsanjani and that faction, or it could well be that it is
Mousavi's own ego driving this. Or it is possible, I don't claim and
don't necessarily believe that it is driven by the CIA. But there are
signs that Mousavi's tactics are similar to tactics of previous
CIA-sponsored revolutions. But that could be coincidence. I don't think
there is necessarily the connection.
I thought Mondale's supporters were right, and Reagan was a bad guy.
I think Mousavi's supporters have a lot of valid criticisms of Iran's
government.
I think Iran's government takes enough input a wide enough swathe of
Iranian society that it is capable of change internally, and I do not
see indications that Mousavi is more committed to the democratic
process than Khomeini was. Khomeini could have transformed Iran into a
hereditary dictatorship with no restraints from an elected Assembly of
Experts and no input from Iran's people and did not because he felt it
would have been religiously wrong to do so. I don't know that I would
have trusted Khomeini to do that, but I don't trust Mousavi to do that.
I see a Musharraf scenario, of ad-hoc usurpations of power and an
indefinite suspension of any limitations on his office as just as
probably under Mousavi.
To Mondale and Mousavi supporters I say, the vote indicates that you
really do not have the popular support to win an election, much less
complete a revolution.
Does Iran have a consensus behind a "go west" strategy as opposed to
a "go east" strategy? No. If it did, Iran would go west. There is also
no national consensus around relaxing religious restrictions, which I
think is wrong but Iranians have to be convinced, and I'm sure the
pro-Mousavi protests are not the way to convince them.
There is a consensus around reducing corruption, but Ahmadinejad and
Mousavi both say they support that. Iran could easily believe
Ahmadinejad, the one who carries his lunch from home to work and who
named Rafsanjani by name, saying what a lot of people already knew but
wouldn't say in public, is the best candidate to fight corruption.
By my understanding a major motivation behind Rafsanjani's support
for a go west strategy is that he would benefit from it personally.
So those are my views on Iran's election and the situation today. I
don't see a point in further protests. I expect a general strike to
fizzle out, if it is really launched. I mourn all of the deaths. I wish
they had not happened and consider them naive sacrifices to either
Mousavi's ego or the forces behind Mousavi that I do not consider good,
if they are the CIA or Rafsanjani.