A New Afghanistan Poll – Moon of Alabama

June 19, 2009

A New Afghanistan Poll

A chart from a new Afghan opinion survey done by the International Republican Institute expresses how much the situation there changed over the last five years. While the people say that they are now economically better off, their biggest concern is security. In total they feel the situation is getting worse (DK/REF= don't know/refrain to answer).

As the WaPo documents today, despite lost of money spend, reconstruction and economic help was largely ineffective.

But what is to be done about security, the main concern? The poll, which is mostly about Karzai's reelection, has only one real question about that issue and I find the large approval thereto quite astonishing:

Answering another question people say they now have more personal freedom than under the Taliban. So do people prefer security over personal freedom?

My guess is they do. So Karzai should talk with the Taliban and find a compromise with them. But the Taliban's main demand is the withdrawal of the foreign troops and the U.S. is not yet willing to think about that.

The situation for the people will therefore likely get worse.

Posted by b on June 19, 2009 at 15:53 UTC | Permalink

Comments

There were 42 official candidates named earlier this week for the Afghanistan presidential election to be held in August. It will be interesting to see how these issues affect the platform of each of the candidates.

Posted by: ensley | Jun 19 2009 18:17 utc | 1

@ensley – the fix is already in – Karzai will be reelected – he convinced (payed off) the two next viable candidates (both deadly warlords) to run on his ticket and the whole procedure is just a farce for the entertainment of the western public.

Posted by: b | Jun 19 2009 18:28 utc | 2

b, I don’t know what to believe anymore. Karzai has not exactly been endearing himself to the American war gods with his constant complaints about Afghan civilians being murdered by the US & NATO forces. Add to that the results of the poll you posted, and maybe he is not going to be the annointed winner. The US may want a more compliant (if that is possible) leader, and the people are tired of the lack of security which he hasn’t brought them.
As an aside on security issues, during the Taliban years, it was perfectly safe to travel from one end of the country to the other without being molested in any way. From the time the US invaded, you aren’t even safe in the big cities, let alone out on the road in rural areas.

Posted by: ensley | Jun 19 2009 18:55 utc | 3

@ensley – there will be no real poll in Afghanistan. It is just a hopeless show. The U.S. forces will let Karzai lament about civilians killed – they don’t care. Karzai will get the next $20 -30 million per year, his appendages even more, and one day retire in some sunny place and luxury. The case of current Afghanistan IS that hopeless in my view.
Best case. All foreigners leave it just alone. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen.

Posted by: b | Jun 19 2009 19:05 utc | 4

I tend to agree for the most part, b, but was doing a bit of wishful thinking anyhow.

Posted by: ensley | Jun 19 2009 19:27 utc | 5

Our great statesman Ben Franklin here in the US said “Those who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security.” Of course, he was living in different times than we are today, since the musket the colonists had was every bit as formidable as the musket of the English. The people in Afghanistan have every right to a life free from the continuing violence the US has brought them, but I’m afraid you’re right that things will only get worse from here on.

Posted by: Jim T. | Jun 20 2009 2:10 utc | 6

I get more confused all the time. The International Republican Institute, along with the National Democratic Institute make up the National Endowment of Democracy. This organization, along with USAID, George Soros’ Open Society, the NeoCons Freedom House are the principal actors in all the soft coups or colored revolutions. They financed Otpor in Serbia, the Orange in the Ukraine, the rose in George, Sumate in Venezuela, etc., on and on. They are probably financing Rafsanjani’s current Green Revolution in Iran. Now I guess I’m going to have to figure out why they put out this poll, and why it rises to the level of being highlighted on this blog

Posted by: Lin Wells | Jun 20 2009 4:44 utc | 7

Lin Wells – Now I guess I’m going to have to figure out why they put out this poll, and why it rises to the level of being highlighted on this blog
Well, actually the IRI polls are better than one suspects. They are not done by the IRI themselves byt by recognized solid poll firms. They usually ask a bunch of questions that is in their special interest – the linked poll is mostly about Karzai’s reelection. But a few questions in between usually turn out to be informative. Those I pick.
Still, when the IRI results do not fit the wished for “reality”, like the outcome of the last Kenia election where IRI clearly predicted an opposition win, the poll will simply not be published.

Posted by: b | Jun 20 2009 5:49 utc | 8

Re. Afgh. in the WaPo from previous thread. Now I am no fan of Holbrooke but USAID is the pits.
Atrociously weak states or semi-failed states and occupied countries tend to drown in corruption.
Getting things done is slow, cumbersome, expensive, dangerous, may fail – many ppl must be paid and the risk premium is high.
Afghanistan how has the most expensive food in the world, no matter the actual prices (indeed staggeringly high) – Afghanis cannot afford it at low third world income for the part of the population that ‘works’. (Not sure that employment stats. are even relevant in such a situation.)
Imported wheat, etc. – food anyway requires transport – protection must be paid. Moving a bag of flour becomes income for dozens of ppl, who then spend the money to buy bread…
Iraq has a stream of revenue. Afghanistan, not. Poppy and international aid money are churned around in underground circuits.
More troops, more Aid, won’t help, just feed the wasteful system. Same old song and dance. Agronomists, translators, will live in fortified bunker villas and snottily trickle down to their servants, who will consider themselves lucky to serve, and eat. The experts earn up to 250K dollaris a year, paid by the Int’l community. What an adventure! Dinner time stories galore!
My suggestion is that Barack be a little more consistent in his generous behavior and lavishly donate to a few Afghani banks – Agricultural Development Bank of Afghanistan, Mortgage and Construction Bank for ex. (names picked off the internet.) He seems to be quite involved in mortgages, ethanol, green shoots, and so on? /snark off.

Posted by: Tangerine | Jun 20 2009 12:52 utc | 9

Karzai has been dealing with the Taliban. (Two links off the top of goog below, there are plenty more.)
He gets flack form the US for it. The US does not object to ex-Northern Alliance warlords. (Rough. Ethnic divisions are just too cool to give up.)
The difficulty in Afgh. is that anyone who has power, and thus must be dealt with somehow, is turn by turn, a ‘warlord’, a ‘local potentate’, an ‘opium dealer’, ‘Taliban insurgent’ as well as at another time, ‘minister’, ‘gvmt. official’, ‘envoy’, ‘chief of police’, ‘coordinator’, ‘contractor’, ‘point man’, ‘valuable collaborator’, ‘army trainer’, and so on.
Imho Karzai has done a fair job in an absolutely impossible situation. But who am I, etc.
msnbc
Wa indep

Posted by: Tangerine | Jun 20 2009 14:16 utc | 10

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