Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 12, 2009
Credit Default Swaps Cause GM Bankruptcy

It is now certain that General Motors will end up in bankruptcy. The last days six of the top GM executives sold all the share they still held.

The bankruptcy is unnecessary. Out-of-court restructuring would be much less disruptive than a bankruptcy will be. But there are people who will profit immensely when GM goes bankrupt. As the Financial Times reports (alt. link):

Hedge funds and other investors stand to make billions of dollars on credit insurance contracts if GM declares bankruptcy, a prospect that is complicating efforts to persuade creditors to agree to a restructuring plan for the automaker, analysts say.

Holders of $27bn in GM bonds have until June 1 to decide whether to swap their debt for a 10 per cent equity stake in the company as part of an offer that would give the US government 50 per cent of the shares, a United Auto Workers union healthcare fund 39 per cent and existing shareholders 1 per cent.

However, analysts say the chances the proposal will be accepted have been diminished by the large number of credit default swap (CDS) contracts written on GM's debt.

Holders of such swaps would be paid in the event of a default – but would lose money if they agreed to restructure GM's debt. For investors who own bonds and CDS, this could create an incentive to favour a bankruptcy filing.

According to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, investors hold $34bn in CDS on GM. Once offsetting positions are considered, the DTCC estimates CDS holders would make a net profit of $2.4bn if GM were to default.

What again is the social value of credit default swaps?

They have none. These 'financial innovations' are alien to the system and contrary to the the public interest. They need to be abolished by declaring them null and void.

Comments

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Posted by: Uncle $cam | May 12 2009 12:58 utc | 1

so that the bankruptcy of GM would mean another insurance company needing help from the taxpayer?
why not buy GM right away?

Posted by: outsider | May 12 2009 14:10 utc | 2

I think their shitty products also played a substantial role.

Posted by: ran | May 12 2009 14:35 utc | 3

b,
I live in Michigan and this state is getting killed. Your right, CDS should be outlawed.

Posted by: jdp | May 12 2009 16:46 utc | 4

CDS is not the reason for GM’s demise. GM’s demise was inevitable…it was just a matter of when. However, it is disgusting that CDS holders will make money off of GM’s bankruptcy, especially when said CDS holders have the political clout to hasten and influence the proceedings. The CDS holders knew GM was going to go bankrupt in several years. That’s why they invested in the GM CDS. It’s a racket, through and through.
The ironic thing about all of this is that the CDS holders are bankrupt, as well. The entire system is bankrupt and one giant, umbrella ponzi scheme encompassing a multitude of smaller ponzi schemes.
Implosion is imminent.

Posted by: Obamageddon | May 12 2009 17:15 utc | 5

Since the 1980’s Wall Street has been grave dancing on the
American economy.

Posted by: ecoli | May 12 2009 18:13 utc | 6

yes GM’s products are not competitive, yes they are in bad need to restructure. A country kills its industry at its own peril though. it is like Lehmann – there will be lots and lots of businesses dependent on GM. and there are lots and lots of international competitors consumers can turn to, nothing new will grow in the US.
Like Margaret Thatcher killing Britain’s industrial base so they now are fully hit by financial crisis.
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSWAT01145620090512
what can the US offer to China for credit? Their markets?

Posted by: outsider | May 12 2009 18:17 utc | 7

The fallout from subprime loans is a drop in the bucket compared to the fallout from credit default swaps.

Posted by: Cynthia | May 12 2009 19:12 utc | 8

I don’t believe CDSs should be declared null and void. A much better solution is if the government simply made clear it will not guarantee any swap. Bondholders will have to consider the ability of the insurer to pay a claim, and most cannot. Insurance companies that thought they could collect free money by selling CDSs should be on their own as well. If they fail, more responsible companies will take their place.
As for GM, it was doomed from the start. The root of the problem was central bank money expansion encouraging people to buy more cars than they need and GM et al to produce more than people could but over time. In tough times, its clear that a family really doesn’t need 3 cars and people can make do with a 10 year old car without without buying a new one.
Sadly, the FED is doing all it can to sustain overcapacity and overspending. Just keep the Ponzi scheme going a little while longer.

Posted by: Lysander | May 12 2009 20:05 utc | 9

@ 5, If you insinuating its because of GMs products you are completely wrong. If your saying their legacy cost and mismanagement is the cause I would agree. I drive GM vehicles, Chevy and Olds, to be exact and they are great vehicles. My pickup is a 1996 half ton and it gets 22 to 25 MPG.
Our Malibu gets thirty MPG driving 70-75 mph going to Florida and back. Our daughters Cobalt gets around forty mpg. My youngest son drives a 1994 Olds that get thirty mpg and is still a very dependable car.
These cars have also been trouble free. The pickup has 166,000 miles and runs like a top.
I keep hearing the big three don’t make vehicles people want. The Ford F-150 and Chevy Silverado are the number one and two selling vehicles in the US, even in a vehicle sales slump.
The problem in the US is the game is rigged in favor of the foreign manufacturers. They get the best press in Consumer Reports and Motor Trend, etc. and the false story of bad vehicles has caught on and is hard to shake. That is managements fault for not fighting the image.
So, management ans legacy cost, yes, those cost the big three, vehicles? they do make good products.

Posted by: jdp | May 12 2009 20:25 utc | 10

#10, it’s mismanagement and product. Your example is an exception to the rule. Honda is superior. I’ve owned both, and Honda won my business 20 years prior, and I vowed never to go back to American made.
We will have to agree to disagree.

Posted by: Obamageddon | May 12 2009 20:57 utc | 11

same here. I drive an ’07 Civic and it’s been flawless while delivering 38 MPG. the dealer is so confident in Honda quality that so long as I get it serviced with them they guarantee the drivetrain for 250,000 miles. domestics have no answer to that.
meanwhile, my mother-in-law drives her Chevy Blazer sparingly but it’s still falling apart with about the same mileage as I have on the Civic.
burned by domestic POSs back in the 80s, I wouldn’t buy one at gunpoint now.

Posted by: ran | May 12 2009 21:55 utc | 12

We will agree to disagree.

Posted by: jdp | May 12 2009 23:25 utc | 13

If CDS holders make $2.4 billion, where does that money come from? Who loses the $2.4 billion? Unless GM is the couter-party to those CDS (which would be idiotic, but hey, that wouldn’t be the first dumb move by GM), then the payoff is coming from other investors and speculators.
You can bet on the weather all day long, it won’t cause a hurricane.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 13 2009 1:05 utc | 14

Surely the CDS are guaranteed by the taxpayers, so that the government is, quite consciously, giving the holders of these CDS an incentive to drive GM into bankruptcy. This is ideology gone totally mad.
GM is a sacrifice to the gods of Free Trade and low wages. On its tombstone special mention should be made of the Business Union model which, by trading away working class solidarity and political action for contract promises, cleared the way for the demolition of communities all over North America.
As to the product line blame the Pentagon and the oil industry for their evil influences. Capitalism works, but only for capitalists. Take a look at Detroit to see what it does to society.

Posted by: ellis | May 13 2009 2:04 utc | 15

The FT got this way wrong. The universe of firms who hold GM CDS is not the same as the universe of GM bondholders. You don’t have to own a GM bond to own a CDS on GM’s debt, and no one can say what the actual overlap is. (Which is obvious in the FT’s story, where the amount of CDS outstanding is far more than the amount of GM’s unsecured debt.)
These CDS payouts will also get spread over 5,000 contracts. There isn’t a single holder of GM debt large enough to sway the deal, and that’s likely true for CDS as well.

Posted by: walkback | May 13 2009 13:46 utc | 16

It appears not a single one of the Chrysler bond holder holdouts held CDS on their Chrysler bonds. There were hints that they did but Zero Hedge (sorry can’t link to it now) who are pretty reliable says no.
I can’t say about the GM situation of course.
All of which is only part of the entire CDS story but don’t get swept up in this tangential scenario.

Posted by: rapier | May 13 2009 23:42 utc | 17