Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 2, 2009
Magic U.S. Troop Increase in Afghanistan

Why doesn't Obama tell tell the public how many troops he really sends to Afghanistan? The official announcements were for 59,000 U.S. troops deployed. The real number now crept up to 68,000.

This was the news on February 18:

President Obama has ordered the first combat deployments of his presidency, saying yesterday that he had authorized an additional 17,000 U.S. troops "to stabilize a deteriorating situation" in Afghanistan.

The new deployments, to begin in May, will increase the U.S. force in Afghanistan by nearly 50 percent, bringing it to 55,000 by mid-summer, along with 32,000 non-U.S. NATO troops.

Months ago, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen.
David D. McKiernan, requested more than 30,000 additional troops this
year, and an initial 6,000 arrived last month under orders signed by
the Bush administration.

Note the 55,000 include the 6,000 Bush sent.

That number was still valid on March 21:

The United States is adding 17,000 troops to the 38,000 it has in Afghanistan, and may send further reinforcements when a policy review by Obama's administration is finished.

Note: 38,000 + 17,000 = 55,000. Fine.

On March 27 an additional 4,000 troops deployment was announced:

Along with the 17,000 additional combat troops authorized last month, he said, Obama will send 4,000 more this fall to serve as trainers and advisers to an Afghan army expected to double in size over the next two years.

The total of 21,000 new troops, added to a combat brigade authorized by the Bush administration and deployed in January, will exceed the 30,000 that Gen. David D. McKiernan, the U.S. and NATO commander, had requested for this year in Afghanistan and will bring the total U.S. force to more than 60,000. Non-U.S. NATO troops there currently total about 32,000.

Note: 55,000 + 4,000 suddenly added up to "more than 60,000" !?!

And only five days later the March 27 numbers magically increased again:

The U.S. military has 38,000 troops in Afghanistan, and the number is projected to rise to 68,000 with deployments scheduled for this year. Those deployments include a 4,000-strong contingent of trainers from the 4th brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division, 17,000 other combat troops, a 2,800-strong combat aviation brigade and thousands of support forces whose placement was not publicly announced, the Pentagon said.

What was 55,000 + 4,000 = "more than 60,000" is now suddenly 68,000.

Those are 9,000 more troops than officially announced. That is the strength of more than two full fledged combat brigades that somehow were ordered into Afghanistan without any public notice. How come?

And yesterday Petraeus requested even more troops:

If approved, the additional 10,000 troops — including a combat brigade of about 4,000 troops and a division headquarters of about 2,000 — would bring the total approved for next year to 78,000, officials say.

Seeing such mission creep I find it more likely that next year will see a total of 120,000+ U.S. troops in Afghanistan. The number known to the public then might well be somewhat different.

But what are the troops to do and what would be considered a success in Afghanistan? Can we measure that? No:

Michele Flournoy, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said the administration hasn't yet developed benchmarks to measure progress, but she predicted high human and financial costs for the U.S. in the campaign against Islamic militants in the two countries.

So there are more troops in Afghanistan than was known to fight Al-Qaeda which is said to be in Pakistan and without any benchmark to measure success.

Again my question:

Why doesn't Obama tell tell the public how many troops he really sends to Afghanistan?

Comments

that’s the famous yank management style* that so much prosperity had brought to their people
good luck with that, too
*i’m calling it “charles manson business model”

Posted by: rudolf | Apr 2 2009 13:14 utc | 1

On a related, but different note:
What are the estimates of how many troops are necessary to “pacify” Afghanistan?
Looking for estimates of troop strength etc: I ended up going to wikipedia.

NATO – ISAF: 51,350[2]
* Flag of the United States US: 19,950
* Flag of the United Kingdom UK: 8,745
* Flag of Germany Germany: 3,600
* Flag of France France: 3,300[3]
* Flag of Canada Canada: 2,830
* other countries: 20,120
(Dec. 1, 2008)
Flag of Afghanistan Afghan National Army: 50,000[4]
Flag of the United States US non-ISAF troops: 28,300[5][6] (Dec. 1, 2008)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%93present)
This little bit on troop strength of the “enemy” and casualties of the “enemy” caught my attention:
Troop Strength

Taliban: 7,000-10,000[7]
al-Qaeda: 1,200-2,500
Haqqani militia: 1,000[8]
Hezbi Islami: 1,000[8]
IMU: 5,000-10,000[9]
Mehsud militia: 30,000[10]

Casualties

21,218–21,628 killed per these reports
1,000+ captured[20]

I’m not able to find estimates for the number of contractors in Iraq. So let’s guess it.
From:
http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Number_of_private_contractors_killed_in_Iraq_and_Afghanistan_passes_1,000
This is a 2007 article so the numbers of contractors are almost certainly higher than what I come up with here.
We see that there are around 150,000 contractors in Iraq.
10,569 contractors have been wounded in Iraq.
2,248 contractors have been wounded in Afghanistan.
So, that would mean that around 32,000 contractors are in Afghanistan.
I rather expect that there is some severe underreporting on #of wounded contractors, but never mind.
So: NATO etc. has around 130,000 troops including 50,000 from the Afghanistan Army.
The resistance has around 40,000 troops.
The resistance has so far lost around 22,000 troops.
Either we are on the verge of winning or something is wrong with some of these numbers. As in Vietnam one suspects that in certain areas the support for the resistance is very high. If these numbers are to be believed – along with the difficulties NATO has had in securing the overthrow of the government of Afghanistan, then NATO is facing widespread popular resistance, and is at the point where its activities are actively driving the recruitment for the resistance. Given that NATO is not winning, one would rather suspect that the size of the resistance is growing.
So how many troops are required? As in Vietnam we can assume that a certain percentage of the Afghanistan troops are not on NATO’s side. The terrain is exceptional for resistance activities. With 130,000 troops to 40,000 troops NATO is loosing.
Population of Afganastan: 32,000,000.
I can’t imagine less than 320,000 troops are needed to control the country and suppress the resistance. The troop strength should probably at least double. Given the terrain – I don’t know, maybe 500,000 troops should do the trick.
Once the resistance has been crushed, the number of troops could be reduced. Other than that, I think NATO is going to loose. (The sooner the better.)

Posted by: edwin | Apr 2 2009 13:39 utc | 2

It goes without saying that it’s a lie cooked up by Washington that the US is beefing up its military presence in Afghanistan in order to stamp out terrorism and bring democracy to the Afghan people. Then what is the real reason why the US is increasing the number of boots on the ground in Afghanistan? It’s my opinion that the US is doing this in order to keep American war profiteers fat and happy. After all, if China can do without military protection while it’s mining for copper in Afghanistan, then the US doesn’t need any military protection either while it’s building an oil pipeline through Afghanistan.

Posted by: Cynthia | Apr 2 2009 14:27 utc | 3

Hello everyone. This is my first post on this site. I have been lurking off and on for a while now and have enjoyed the commentary here. Regarding troop increases in Afghanistan, consider the geography of our troop deployments in the region. The US has either a military presence or a strategic alliance in the following countries:
First and most notably, Iraq and Afghanistan.
But also,
Turkey
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
UAE
Oman
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Soft rhetoric is so much easier when backed by the implication “We have you surrounded.” Given the softening of rhetoric targeted at Iran, it makes sense that Obama would want to hedge his plan with additional military presence in the region. Afghanistan is a great place to do it because of relatively strong public support for the primary operation there as well as its proximity to both Iran and Pakistan. The diplomatic capitulation of Iran would be a huge coup for the Obama administration and would set the stage for a major shift in US policy in the region. The fact that he is doing this quietly should come as no surprise.
By the way, the DOD website that lists the official levels of US troop deployments throughout the world was not loading for me. Though it showed the last update as August, 2006, I was unable to dig up a more recent edition of the page. If any of you are able to open it and find that my information is not accurate, I would welcome correction. The link may be followed from DOD Defenselink.

Posted by: SnuffMonkey | Apr 2 2009 15:29 utc | 4

I would suspect that part of the 10K request from Petraeus is to cover the withdrawal symptoms of Spain, Canada (after the elections), Denmark? and others. The image of this being the ‘good’ war, vis a vis Iraq, is rapidly evaporating. Right now the tactics seem to be setting up many Fort Apaches and UAV strikes. With higher troop levels it will change to trying to do major sweeps. Not Fine.

Posted by: biklett | Apr 2 2009 16:26 utc | 5

Off topic but central topic.
Never thought that I would see this, the “rich” nations spending money so that the poor ones will buy their products. Simply amazing though foreseen by some remarkable nineteenth century political economist. On another topic the trillion dollars may be what Isaiah forecast on his biblical blog. Bread will be free and the poor will eat and drink as much as they want. The rich are supposed to be sent away inanes.
Such terror. The situation must be infinitely worse than felt by us, confortably watching the deer grazing in our back yard.

Posted by: jlcg | Apr 2 2009 17:07 utc | 6

This is rotation “doubling-up” I think.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Apr 2 2009 17:29 utc | 7

edwin 2) “Once the resistance has been crushed,” … funny guy.
The population of Afghanistan is 38M. With the pending Pakistani eviction of refugee Afghans, 2.5M refugees will be wandering around looking for food and shelter. There are minimum 800.000 orphans waiting to be absorbed into a Mahdi Army. The Afghan population itself has over 50% living on $2 a day, or less.
Yesterday SAFSC and CENTCOM got their wet dream, doubling down on “Afghanistan Pakistan”, or “AfPak”, (although I think SecState Hillary prefers “Those Who Would Do Us Harm” because it ties in so jingoistically with her NeoZi.con handlers,
and they strongly need a re-branding away from Bush-Cheney’s “Terror” meme.)
What have we got ourselves into?!? The population of Pakistan is 172M! The “Central Front in the War on Terror” just grew 500%, with the gavel coming down on a new $5B Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act, and a “$100B emergency funding request for Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other undisclosed national security purposes”.
Now why would CENTCOM add 500% to its mission-creep? M.O.N.E.Y. Keeping Defense USA™ the largest lettuce growing operation in the combined world history.
Even if you went back to the Pharoahs, and added up all the money spent on military up to 2001, it would not equal what is being spent by deficit peonage, on GWOT.
Truly, “9/11 Changed Everything”™ It opened the gates of perpetual interest Hell.
That’s what Arabs mean when they say, “the camel getting its nose into the tent”.
Afghanistan contains Asia’s largest reserves of iron (2,43 BILLION T) and copper (12,4 MILLION T). Those reserves have already been granted to foreign capital by a Mineral Act written by World Bank, and signed by Karzai. Poof. Afghanistan contains *10 times* the amount of oil and gas originally thought: 1,596 million barrels of crude oil, 15,687 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 562 million barrels of natural gas liquids. USGS released those new figures *AFTER* Karzai signed away the leases, under the World Bank written Hydrocarbon Act. Both Acts are based on PSA’s. Google it. World Bank began writing the PSA’s immediately after Tora Bora, once US Special Forces seized the Soviet exploration documents from the Taliban. Both PSA’s were based on reserve estimates only 10% of their later revealed value.
The whole “Karzai” exercise was to legitimize signing those two PSA Acts.
Not surprisingly, AIPAC is not going to let all those resources transit through Iran, and they’re going to fight the copper mine lease to China by ramping up the Terror until China’s four year “use it or lose it” lease expires. So Pakistan is going to get the largesse of one of the largest resource extraction transits in modern history, right through Tango Central.
Global War of Terror 3 has just begun, buddy, and resistance will NEVER be crushed.

Posted by: Shah Loam | Apr 2 2009 18:38 utc | 8

Wait, I forgot the money line! Follow the money!!
Those oil and gas reserves are worth about $125B today, not counting production and transport costs. Those strategic mineral reserves are worth about $176B and $409B, not counting even higher production, concentrate and transport costs than normal.
Roughly $700B. Hey, I’ve heard that number before!
The War in Iraq cost US taxpayers $700B, which will never be repaid and amounts to perpetual $70B a year in interest-only budget diversion, for which we got exactly *nothing*, not counting the $1B a *day* we had to pay in higher gas prices.
The Obama Bailout will cost US taxpayers $700B, which will never be repaid and amounts to perpetual $70B a year in interest-only budget diversion, for which we got to keep Fed, State and local employees in the saddle, *salaries and pensions secure*, not counting the $1B a *day* we will pay in higher Cap and Trade taxes.
Are ya’ smellin’ what Iraq is cookin’?
We have already been in Afghanistan, holding down the fort, eight years. It will take twenty or thirty years to extract those resources, even at a GWOT 2 off-book $150B a year in emergency funding, not counting the $120B for active duty salaries and benefits, US taxpayers are looking at over $2.3T per decade for AfPak, which will never be repaid, and eat up the last remaining discretionary spending for H&HR.
Hey, I’ve heard that $2.3T number before! That was the amount Defense misplaced and Don Rumsfeld bitched about on 9/10. That’s the amount of the Obama Bank Bailout too!
Are, like, $700B and $2.3T some kind of magic wikkan numerology, or something?
If you say each of them three times, does the Devil pop up with cloven hooves?
For what? Maybe for nothing! It may exit-out like Iraq. In any case, that $700B in resource profits PSA will only pay out the minimum to *keep a Karzai-esque central government in place to rubber stamp the contracts and facilitate the expenditures.*
The remainder of that $700B in resource profits and $2.3T in military profits will go directly to global vampire capital, with no dividends to the taxpayers.
You bleed, they feed. Now get back to your cotton picking, suckers! Carbon’s comin’!

Posted by: Shah Loam | Apr 2 2009 19:04 utc | 9

Somehow, you get the feeling that Afghanistan isn’t quite ready to join the 21st centruy. Or the 20th, or 19th…

Posted by: Obelix | Apr 2 2009 22:00 utc | 10

Shah Loam
It was not for Bin Laden’s leadership in executing 911 we hit Tora Bora and Afghanistan. It was not for GWOT we invaded Afghanistan, and then Iraq.
The Taliban (including Bin Laden, a distinguished warrior we supported against the Russians only a decade before) in Afghanistan had told Halliburton to go Cheney themselves pre ShrubCo’s erection, and the Taliban were working with Russia, Germany, France for pipeline rights to transport natural gas.
You’ve told the details nicely. well done. The money, the oil, the gas, the distribution of same.
Global hegemony, IMF, World Bank. MIC/War Machine, The Big Banking Families.
Again, nicely laid out, hoss.

Posted by: larue | Apr 3 2009 2:35 utc | 11

Shah Loam-
Nice post!
Now I gotta get back to the fields…Bankars’ yellin’ I ain’t workin’ hard enough…Lots of dat debt to pay, gotta pay dat debt.

Posted by: DavidS | Apr 3 2009 3:22 utc | 12

Yes, but it seems many are missing the main point, here:
the effort’s failing.
This current world-wide depression is a direct consequence of the US/UK inability to supply their economic bloc with the necessary resources. The Russo-Sino bloc, meanwhile, is consolidating greater access, and far-flung alliances.
As the depression sets in more viciously, these wars will turn against the US/UK, and as that happens, China, Central Asia, and Russia will go on a conspicuous rise —
and the peoples of those places are — unlike the U.S. citizenry — lean, organized, and ready to fight for that better life they’ve been promised these last four generations.
Obama has shown his hand with this play on Afghanistan. “Hopium” indeed.
What we in the West should be fighting for are guarantees that the U.S. will keep the goddamned nukes out of the hands of the Carlyle junta and the religious right.
If that requires a military dictatorship and an end to the U.S. democracy, then so be it. I’ll gladly trade the one for the other —
and consider it an honor.

Posted by: china_hand2 | Apr 3 2009 5:36 utc | 13

larue 11) Ironically, it was Carter who started this whole GWOT3, when he signed a
funding bill the summer BEFORE the Soviet invasion in December 1979, telling CIA to
start undermining the democratically elected *communist* government of Afghanistan,
right after the Iranian people had overthrown the CIA installed Shah. So the CIA
and bin Laden started organizing the mujahideen against the Soviets who had so
thoroughly fucked up their occupation with communist land reforms and womens rights
(obelix 10) that the entire countryside rose up in revolt. At that moment, General
Zia seized power in Pakistan (with CIA’s help??) and began creating madrassas to
train young men to be “freedom fighters” in the same mold as the gangster tribal
mujahideen, but with a more civilized Koran-thumping twist. Soviets fled as their
country was collapsing under betrayal of Gorbachev’s peristroika and glosnost by
deal-breakers in the West (1989), then the victorious-by-persistence mujahideen
started stinking up the joint, trashing the palaces, looting the treasury, going
all ‘tribal’. Zia sent in the Taliban as peace makers preaching can’t we just get
along until they had seized enough military equipment to push the mujahideen out
of Kabul and formally take over the government. In 1997 while George W. Bush was
Governor of Texas, a delegation of Taliban leaders from Afghanistan flew to Houston
to meet with Unocal, the oil company that proposed the Afghan oil pipeline through
Pakistan (Baluchistan) to the transhipment port of Gwadar, which both Karzai and
Khalilzad were consultants to for obtaining the pipeline route. Things get pretty
fucking freaky after Clinton gets set up and rolls over on Glass-Steagall, setting
up the Dot.Con bubble bomb and Rumsfeld’s observation that $2.3T had gone missing.
Historian chess players might wonder how the Tale of Afghanistan would have turned
out, if Clinton had just kept his dick in his pants. Tora Bora was a charade to
capture the Soviet records in Kabul and probably the land titles on the pipeline
corridor, we’ll never know. World Bank jumped in like carrion flies and dung
beetles to get those Hydrocarbon and Mineral Law Acts signed, kind of like Bush and
his Patriot Act the day after 9/11, but now the bile is surging in my stomach at
the dog and pony show yesterday at the Senate Hearing on Afghanistan and Pakistan.
What was a gentlemens’ conjecture in the “Great Game” how long the Taliban would
hold out before they were “crushed” (edwin 2) and just how much reconstruction you
could expect out of $1.25B IMF funds and $5.9B USAID funds, (where did all the rest
of the $10B pledged twice disappear to?) has suddenly lurched into $150B/year GWOT3.
Conning the Republicans little gimmick, if you add up all the monies spent on the
military since George Washington crossed the Delaware, “George to George” as they
like to crow, GWOT 2 has already spent more than the last 225 years of America, and
now GWOT 3 is going to quadruple that doubling. Any dedicated student of finance is
in “Shekinah” right now, look at any chart you want on anything, it’s going Lunar.
Maybe the Mayans saw through their blood sacrifice more than we give ’em credit for.
Get it? “Give credit for”? Little ‘bringing it home’ for the patient long polemic.

Posted by: Shah Loam | Apr 3 2009 6:29 utc | 14