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Links April 05 09
A Pentagon official told us: “We have effectively abandoned our hopes that NATO will provide extra fighting strength. This war, and in Pakistan, is now almost an American monopoly.”
- Ignatius:
The Saudis hope that if Obama's charm offensive toward Iran fails, it will be followed by tough action. "He's building a case against Iran," predicts the Saudi source.
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Congrats to the people of North Korea for launching their version of Sputnik. This is the 11th nation with satellite launch capability. The NYT writes:
North Korea’s missiles have ranked among its few profitable exports — Iran, Syria and Pakistan have all been among its major customers. If this long-range test ends up a success, it would presumably make the design far more attractive on the international black market.
The NoKo government sells something to the Syrian government. Why is that characterized as 'black market'???
Please add your links, news and views in the comments.
From Haaretz, an article, a half propaganda, the other half very interesting: U.S. green light for Israeli attack on Iran will have to wait:
The possibility of an Israeli attack against a nuclear Iran, which will result in Iran and Hezbollah making good on their threats to attack American assets in response, will be a test of the willingness of NATO’s member states to implement Article 5 of the treaty’s convention and assist in the American defense (in other words, the counterattack). When the article was originally written, it was based on the assumption that the Americans would be called to help the Europeans. On 9/11 this situation was reversed.
[…]
Politicians go, the chief of staff remains
For reinforcement purposes, Obama’s top military brass were enlisted, headed by Gen. David Petraeus and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen. Mullen and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi are on friendly terms. The two were in touch during various IDF operations, among other things. Whenever they have been unable to meet in Washington, they decided to meet midway, in Europe.
The U.S. army learns from IDF experiences and considers the latter’s operations an important laboratory, even though not all such tests are blessed with complete and immediate success. For example, the Americans admire the Israel Air Force’s proven ability to operate aircraft in difficult weather. Very few armies in the world are closer in spirit to the U.S. Army than the IDF.
Whereas politicians come and go, the chief of staff remains. In the Pentagon and in the National Security Council, headed by retired Gen. James Jones, another one of Ashkenazi’s friends, they have found that the chief of staff’s stable standing within the establishment and among the public is a tool of continuity and influence. They know Ashkenazi is cautious and moderate when it comes to the use of force, but in the final analysis he is also a major partner in crucial decisions on military operations in nearby and distant battle zones.
The Mullen-Ashkenazi axis, like similar axes between heads of the two countries’ intelligence communities, allows the Americans to sense the genuine atmosphere beneath the public propaganda disseminated in Israel and to understand the extent to which Israel is really concerned about the Iranian nuclear threat. It also affords them the opportunity to reassure, to delay and, at the very least, to walk the hidden line between the desire not to officially know in advance, in order to safeguard the ability to shrug off responsibility, and the need not to be surprised.
Make no mistake about the Obama administration, when it comes to Iran: Its policy differs from that of the Bush administration only in style, not in content. Its officials express themselves in positive terms, cloaked in an expression of conciliation, as opposed to the angry face worn by president George W. Bush – but the conclusions are similar, as are the results. Gary Samore, who Jones put in charge of coordinating the issue of weapons of mass destruction, said often, before his appointment, including during a speech at the Herzliya Conference in 2007, organized by Uzi Arad (today Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security advisor), that the Iranians will continue their efforts to obtain nuclear weapons and that economic and diplomatic pressure will not help.
Unofficial diplomacy
At a speech he delivered in Japan last summer, Samore said that in the past 50 years, seven Middle Eastern countries tried to obtain nuclear arms, but only one of them, Israel, succeeded. If the new U.S. president, in this case Obama, is unable to enlist international support to restrict or delay Iranian plans for uranium enrichment, Washington faces a “terrible choice – to accept Iran as a nuclear country or to use American or Israeli military force,” Samore said.
Ashton Carter, recently nominated by the president to be under secretary of defense for acquistion, technology and logistics, offered a similar analysis for the Bush administration, when he outlined three alternatives to confronting Iran. Plan B3, the military option, also entailed a possible bombing of Iranian oil installations, which are not protected and concealed like components of the nuclear infrastructure. The prevailing balance of power within the Obama administration tends to favor attacking Iran’s nuclear installations, or to tolerate an Israeli attack. A prominent opponent of using military force against Iran, Charles Freeman, who had been slated to head the U.S. National Intelligence Council, was dropped under pressure of Israel’s American supporters.
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Obama will wait – not only for Iranian elections, scheduled for June (and those in Lebanon, that same month), but also for September’s elections in Germany, and for Britons to vote at more or less the same time (elections have yet to be scheduled), in order to know who will stand by his side in the trenches. In that way 2009 will pass without a decision, but not all of 2010, because come that November, Congressional elections will be held, immediately after which the Democrats will begin organizing Obama’s reelection campaign. The summer of 2010 will be critical, because by then the evacuation of most of the American forces from Iraq will be completed and fewer exposed targets will remain for Iranian revenge attacks.
The development of the Iron Dome system for intercepting Katyusha rockets, whose first battery will protect the environs north of the Gaza Strip (Ashkelon, Sderot), is expected to be completed by the summer of 2010. That will make it difficult for Hamas to open another front to harass the IDF on Iran’s behalf. In the coming months, the tests of the Arrow missile defense system will continue, in a scenario that simulates an attack by a long-distance Iranian missile. The tests will be carried out in cooperation with American systems, including the large radar facility at the Nevatim air base. Preparations for defence against a radioactive attack will also improve, at an event to be staged at either an Israeli or an American port, as will preparations for a plague of smallpox, in a joint exercise involving Israel and one of NATO’s important European member states.
[…]
Posted by: andrew | Apr 5 2009 17:29 utc | 11
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