No, not (yet) a military coup against the government, but a government coup against the opposition:
Dozens of political activists and lawyers were arrested in Islamabad and across the Punjab Wednesday in a bid to thwart a planned protest march on the capital, police said.
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Those rounded up include members of Pakistan's most popular opposition party, which is headed by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was last month disqualified from contesting elections.
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In Lahore police confirmed further arrests after authorities banned protests and ordered paramilitary troops to be on alert in a bid to prevent this week's planned ‘long march’ demanding legal reforms.
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A government official told AFP he expected ‘hundreds of people’ to be rounded up before the long march and that lists of ‘miscreants’ were being prepared in districts across Punjab province.
Zardari, the current president, broke his election promises, especially on the reinstatement of the supreme court judges Musharraf had fired and replaced with his tools. Last week the supreme court judged against the Sharif brothers and disqualified them from all political positions. Shahbaz Sharif, the brother of the Muslim League's leader, Nawaz Sharif, was the chief minister of Punjab, the most populated state of Pakistan. Instead of allowing the Punjab parliament to vote for a new chief minister, the president selected one of his friends as governor to rule over Punjab. The Sharifs, together with the lawyer movement that supports the fired supreme court judges, called for a long march to Islamabad to protest the president's actions.
Now Zardari, using dubious legal powers, is actively suppressing any opposition.
This might very well lead to a bloody struggle against the Zardari regime. The question then is not if but when the military will again take over to bring some calm into the situation.
Yesterday Juan Cole published a good backgrounder on the troubles. He judges that this conflict will dwarf the trouble with the Taliban problem and the Deobandi fight against Sufism.
One wonders what position the Obama administration will take on this:
- Support Zardari?
- Support Sharif and the lawyer movement?
- Urge for a military coup?
Zardari gives the U.S. practically a free hand to fight the Taliban on Pakistani ground. But keeping him is certain to create a bigger mess in Pakistan with unforeseeable consequences.
While Sharif would probably bring more peace to Pakistan, he is unlikely to play along with the U.S. So I doubt that the U.S. will ever support him even if that would help to calm things down.
Which lets me assume that the U.S. will eventually support another military coup against the civil government of Pakistan. Chief of Army Staff General Kayani has worked well together with the U.S. so far. But up to now Kayani has rejected any kind of interference in the political process. That he is capable to become some accepted leader of an interim government is dubious.
Most likely the U.S. will follow Churchill's dictum "the United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative" and first support alternative 1. When the trouble gets bigger it will support alternative 3 and finally it will have to accept alternative 2. Meanwhile the people in Pakistan will have to sustain a unruly and bloody time.