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The Pink Route To Afghanistan
(UPDATED with new Kyrgyzstan development at 2pm est)
“[In Afghanistan] a small army would be annihilated and a large one starved.“
Duke of Wellington (1769-1852) (source)
A new supply route into Afghanistan is getting more urgent by the day. Russia is squeezing the U.S.’ balls in negotiations over a route through its country. Now Iran might get the chance to do the same.
Today an important bridge in Pakistan went down:
The bridge in the Khyber district was blown up at 0600 local time (0100 GMT) and all traffic on the road had been suspended, news agency AFP quoted key official, Tariq Hayat, as saying.
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The 30-metre (100-foot) iron bridge is 23km (15 miles) west of Peshawar.
To repair a 30 meter steel bridge in the volatile area will require some time, possibly weeks.
Some stuff was already missing in the mess halls and PX shops on U.S. bases in Afghanistan:
The milk is now pulled from the mess hall by 9 a.m., to ration the limited supply.
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At the Camp Phoenix base store nearby, the shelves look bare. There’s no Irish Spring Body Wash, no Doritos, no Tostitos Scoops, no Bayer Aspirin.
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“I’ve never seen the store this empty, ever,” said Ula Loi, the store manager.
Early last year 600 to 800 trucks per day were going from Karachi through Peshawar and the Khyber pass to Kabul and the U.S. main base in Bagram. After several attacks the traffic on that route had already been reduced to some 300-400 trucks per day with another 100+ per day going from Karachi through Torkham to Kandahar.
Even with those 500+ trucks per day, the PX had empty shelfs and the mess hall lacked milk. With 300-400 trucks less per day now military operations will have to be reduced.
The U.S. also has an air-base in Kyrgyzstan for flying supplies to Afghanistan which is also in trouble:
The base, located on the outskirts of Bishkek and home to over 1,000 military personnel, was established in 2001 after the start of the U.S-led military operation in Afghanistan. Recent media reports said the Kyrgyz government was considering to shut it down.
It may be that Russia has a hand in this:
Russia is offering the indebted ex-Soviet state a grant of 150 million dollars and a loan of 300 million dollars and is lining up major investment in return for closure of the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan, Kommersant reported.
In an earlier piece I said Russia “has the U.S. by the balls.” Now it is squeezing.
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UPDATE (2pm est): Just in: NYT Kyrgyzstan Said to Deny Base to U.S.
Kyrgyzstan is ending U.S. use of a key airbase that supports military operations in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan’s president was quoted as saying Tuesday.
End-Update
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Five possible routes into Afghanistan have been discussed.
bigger
The blue line is the exiting and endangered route through Pakistan. The green line through China is unlikely to happen as China prefers to stay out of imperial adventures. The red line is the Caspian route the U.S. would prefer (also as a pipeline route) but which is blocked due to Russian influence on Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The yellow line is under negotiation and will have a heavy political price.
Petraeus’ premature announcement that the yellow route through through Russia had been secured increased the price the U.S. will have to pay for it. Next to lots of money Russia wants:
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a renewed START strategic arms reduction treaty
- no further NATO expansion in Eastern Europe or Central Asia
- no missile defense in Eastern Europe
The U.S. is desperate over the logistic situation in Afghanistan and the Russians know it:
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov agreed on Tuesday to work more closely on key strategic issues, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said.
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The two foreign ministers spoke by telephone at the request of Washington, the ministry said in a statement.
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“Especially noted was the importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation, including questions of strategic dialogue and economic cooperation, as well as current international problems such as the resolution of (the situation in) Afghanistan,” the statement said.
Note the sequence of Lavrov’s points. For Russia the route to Afghanistan is at the end of other issues.
There is of course the pink route left. Supply through Iran was unthinkable so far, but the urgency of the situation makes the earlier unthinkable possible:
NATO would not oppose individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan as an alternative to using increasingly risky routes from Pakistan, the alliance’s top military commander said Monday.
Gen. John Craddock’s comments came just days after NATO’s secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, urged the U.S. and other members of the Western military alliance to engage with Iran to combat Taliban militants in Afghanistan.
I can hear the alarms bells in Tel Aviv going off over this. A U.S. ally (Germany, Canada?) or the U.S. itself supplying through Iran’s port Char Bahar makes an Israeli or U.S. attack on Iran politically at least much more difficult if not impossible.
Iran said earlier it would prefer that the U.S. pulls out of Afghanistan.
But it may want to wait and see what the Russians will get for their route and then rethink its position.
Having a U.S. ally or the U.S. itself depend on Iran for supply in Afghanistan could be a major diplomatic asset and open up new possibilities.
Without Russia’s and without Iran’s help, the U.S. is unlikely to succeed in Afghanistan.
Russia is using its ability to squeeze the empire’s ball over logistic lines to Afghanistan. Iran should think about gaining that capability and opportunity too.
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earlier coverage of Afghanistan logistics at MoA:
The Costly New Supply Route To Afghanistan, Jan 26, 2009
New Supply Routes To Afghanistan, Nov 19, 2008
Fuel for War in Afghanistan Aug 20, 2008
The Road War in Afghanistan Aug 16, 2008
Fuel Tanker Attacks in Afghanistan Mar 24, 2008
To be as brief as possible:
The world awaited Obama to show his stripes, and now he has — through rhetoric, appointments, and actions — largely revealed his hand; and while the ever-gullible Democratic base may be surprised, the nations of the world are not. (One must wonder what the significance of Obama’s appointments are: An unprecedented bi-partisan cabinet with three Republicans, and four military men in top positions: an insolent slap to his progressive, anti-war base. Is he preparing a unity government to enforce the next shock-therapy to be administered to the US public; are the military appointments a life-insurance policy which JFK was remiss in taking out? Bush assumed the Presidency, courtesy of Daddy, with a powerful enough base to simply boss the military and intelligence sectors around. Obama understands that he does not have that luxury, hence this is where he is investing his attention.)
I never agreed with the ridiculous thesis put forth on the previous thread — endorsed by most here — that Afghanistan is some sort of a “job program” for the military (First time I have fundamentally disagreed with Antifa.), as it never addressed why the ‘job program’ was to be in Afghanistan. We are continually reminded how stretched our troops deployments are; why not South America, which is slipping out from under the jackboot?
In any event, it has never been the perogative of Empire to reveal its true aims. (Only vassals like Palestine must acknowledge the “rights” of others.) Jim Lobe, in one of those awful “Shepherd’s Pie” sort of articles, which goes back and forth between professed fictions like “Democracy” and true aims — as if they were somehow interchangeable — nevertheless, points to a considerable fractiousness among elite planners about what real goals are achievable under current constraints: “More Troops, More Worries, Less Consensus on Afghanistan,”
And what might those constraints be, beyond the obvious ones: money, troop strength, NATO fecklessness and European recalcitrance — and the big elephant in the room, namely the lack of achievable goals? Simply put, by flat-footedly telegraphing his intransigence and resistance to significant “Change,” and by appointing ideologues instead of statesmen, Obama has inadvertently raised the cost of doing business.
All actions in the world are cut from the same cloth: The Ukrainian pipeline fracas cannot be separated from the strategy in Afghanistan: In diplomacy, everything is on the table. b beat me to the punch with his link to George Friedman’s Stratfor piece in the NYTimes. (Actually, a longer analysis, “Strategic Divergence: The War Against the Taliban and the War Against Al Qaeda,” went out to free subscribers several days ago. Well worth getting on his mailing list.)
But, this article from RIA Novosti points to the more likely Russian and Chinese response to incursions into what they regard as their sphere of influence: “Karzai scares Obama with Russia”
Speaking to the graduates of the Kabul Military Academy, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said that if Americans did not speed up the implementation of the program to supply armed forces, this task would be carried out by other countries.
Last week, the press service of the Afghan President published Dmitry Medvedev’s reply to Karzai. The Russian President expressed readiness to help the Afghan armed forces. An Afghan delegation consisting of high-level civil and military officials will visit Moscow in the near future. Expansion of bilateral military-technical cooperation will be the main subject of the talks…
In principle, Karzai’s plan is correct. At one time, the Soviet-trained Afghan army was considered one of the most powerful in the region. It was also well-armed in comparison to other regional forces.
However, little has been achieved in recent years. From 2002 to 2005, Russia rendered the Afghan army $200 million in aid, but this cooperation was later curtailed. Neither the United States nor NATO as a whole has made much progress in building an Afghan army during the last seven years. There is no aviation or heavy armament, and the army itself is far from ready to guarantee domestic stability.
In Afghanistan, the army has been traditionally allotted a leading role in politics, and a stake on the army has always been failsafe, which is why Karzai has appealed to Russia for aid. Whether this will help him during the election or not is another matter.
In other words, the positive battle here is for the “hearts and minds” of the military elite, not the populace. Russia and China are happy to let the US/Europe continue to slaughter civilian “terrorists” with abandon, until the Afghanis look back on the good old days of the Soviet occupation with longing, much as Iraq now looks back with nostalgia on the days under the ‘loving care’ of Saddam. With the US exhausted and broke, Russia will step in with military contracts and China will mop up the business deals.
Incidently, the closure of Manas Air Base was not unexpected, as John McCreary points out in his equally valuable free analytical service, “Nightwatch:”
The Kyrgyz government has decided to stop the use of the Manas airbase by coalition forces, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said on Tuesday in reply to an Itar-Tass question. He explained the decision with economic considerations and the negative public attitude.
The agreement on coalition forces’ deployment in Manas was signed in 2001 when the Afghan war was on, Bakiyev said. “Kyrgyzstan met the request and permitted the coalition to use its territory for fighting terrorism. Thus, it made a serious contribution to the counter-terrorism operation,” he noted.
“Initially, it was the question of one or two years. Eight years have passed. American partners and we have many times discussed an economic compensation to Kyrgyzstan, but no understanding has been reached. Kyrgyzstan has been asking the United States to review the relationship for more than three years but to no avail,” the president said.
With Bakiyev’s decision, the Medvedev-Putin duo has taken a long step towards restoring Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, as articulated by President Medvedev in his five principles last September. As Medvedev said, in paraphrase at that time, Russia opposes a unipolar world, especially when it poaches Russian strategic interests. Medvedev and Bakiyev also announced that they would cooperate in an anti-terror coalition, according to Moscow Channel One.
Although Russian opposition to unipolar politics and NATO encroachment are longstanding issues, the Russians have been counterattacking aggressively since Kosovo’s independence last February. In the past year, they have had strategic success in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.
Nevertheless, the stark juxtapostion of stories about Manas, the blown-up bridge, the Iranian “Hope” satellite, and Iranian-Pakistani cooperation in one day indicates just what kind of a tar-baby the Bush/Cheney junta has bequeathed to tyro President “Bam Bam.” It’s too bad he has appointed a coterie of equally unimaginative tar-godparents to oversee the situation.
Posted by: Malooga | Feb 4 2009 11:19 utc | 42
Few voters registered
Kandahar Surgar: Few voters, especially for women, have taken part in the upcoming presidential elections’
registration process in the provincial capital of Kandahar, independent election commission officials said.
The voter registering process has been launched and is moving forward in all districts of Kandahar but two,
the south regional Independent Election Commission head, Mohammd Qahir Wasifi, said.
The two abandoned registration centers are Ghorak and Meya Nashin, whose residents must register at other
voting centers located in Maiwand and Arghandab districts.
Wasifi spoke in an exclusive interview with Surgar weekly, arguing that conditions of wartime insecurity,
certain governmental officials not standing behind their promises, citizens residing in far remote areas
of the country and local traditions are reasons fewer people have participated in the voting process.
According to Mr. Wasifi, a total of 37 voter registration centers are open in the southern province.
19 of the centers are located in Kandahar city, ten for males and the remainder for female participants.
Voter registration in the southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Farah and Nimroz began on the 20th of
January, and will continue for one month, until the 20th of February.
Even though southern registration districts expected to face challenges, there haven’t been major problems,
Wasifi said. The IEC head assured citizens of security and order at the centers and urged them to get their
voter registration cards soon, in order to take part in the upcoming elections. He thanked security officials
for protecting the registration process, and urged the opposition Taliban to create opportunities for the
public to register for their voting cards and hold elections, saying he is in contact with the provincial
council members in order to remind them of the value of loyal duty.
President Hamad Karzai’s term of office is up in June of next year, but the presidential election will be
delayed until in the month of August due to security concerns and low voter registration turnout.
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Corrupt lawyers dismissed
Kabul Surgar: Afghanistan Supreme Court officials have announced the dismissal of approximately 50 lawyers,
aiming towards the improvement of the justice organizations. The move came after NATO said corruption was
a much bigger threat to Afghanistan than the opposition insurgent Taliban.
The lawyers were removed from their jobs last year in order to prevent corruption in judiciary organizations.
Experts, on the other hand, claim the Supreme Court has taken the action only after accusations of corruption
rose concerning justice in the organizations.
Abdul Malik Kamavi, a Supreme Court official, said attempts to put an end to corruption in the judiciary
will continue, the BBC has reported.
Besides dismissing the allegedly corrupt lawyers, many others have been banned from carrying out their jobs.
Kamavi accepted the rise of international accusations and citizen complaints, without responding in detail.
According to him, the banned lawyers were defending in corruption cases and directly involved in corruption.
Kamavi declared the establishment of a new anti-corruption branch, which will put an end to corruption both
in the capital Kabul and other provinces of the country. Without naming anyone, he said higher officials
within the government have intervened in judiciary affairs and trials.
Unless corruption in the country is eliminated, development of the country will be impossible, experts say.
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Opium cultivation to decrease
Kandahar Surgar: According to a survy by the counter-narcotic ministry of Afghanistan, it is believed
likely that future opium cultivation in the south and south-west provinces of the country will decrease.
The provinces are considered Afghanistan’s most likely regions to show a cultivation decrease in 2009.
Last year the regions were the most significant opium growers in the country.
General Khudaidad, the national counter-narcotics minister, said the southern provinces of Kandahar,
Helmand, Farah, Zabul and Nimroz are likely to show a decrease in poppy growth in the ongoing year.
High food crop prices, the government fight against opium cultivation by government, and low opium prices
are some of the reasons opium cultivation may decrease, the survey said. The survey was taken in 500 opium
growing villages of the country, the ministry officials added.
General Khudaid said 18 provinces are reported poppy-free, and said he appreciated the efforts made by the
US and UK. The minister urged other foreign countries to assist them in the fight against the poppy growth.
Experts believe if farmers are given viable alternatives, opium cultivation will decrease in Afghanistan.
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Ministry trains new police
Kabul Surgar: The interior ministry of Afghanistan has announced the creation a special police unit for
public security, in order to deal with the unstable situations found throughout the country.
The public security unit will be on active patrol, however, rumors circulate claiming this new police
unit would be similar to the occupying forces’ controversial proposal to arm the tribal militias.
The interior minister, Hanif Atmar, stated that the new police unit would be military-trained young men.
“The new armed well-equipped police force will be trained under military rules and will work under the
police headquarters authority”, Atmar told a news conference in the capital Kabul.
Atmar also proposed raising police salaries to the conference, saying the raises will prevent corruption
in the police force. The new salaries will be made retroactive to the end of the previous year. “The
entire police force including top officers will have a raise of 1000 afs in their monthly salary,
and a 4000 afs raise in salaries in the most unstable province’s, beside the 100 extra ransoms daily,”
the interior minister said.
The new salary act hopes to quell accusations of police involvement in corruption, just as many other
national officials are accused of corruption in President Karzai’s government.
The salary raise comes amid complaints by police saying their salaries are inadequate. Unless police
are well-equipped and their salary are increased, they can’t be expected to provide strong security,
experts believe.
The powerful opposition Taliban strongly reacted to the new plan by the interior ministry, saying,
“The soon-to-be-trained security officials will not be police but like the armed militia as in the
communist Soviet Union times”, the Taliban claimed in a press release sent to Surgar Weekly.
Taliban say the creation of these ‘tribal militia forces’ means that the Afghan National Army and
occupation military forces have failed in their fight against them.
The insurgents warned anyone who joins these militiass will face serious retribution from their side,
with an equal threat to any governmental officials who support the re-arming measures. The Taliban
press release also stated they will approach tribal leaders, elders, and scholars to oppose the new
Interior ministry plans, which according to them is a foreign conspiracy to make Afghans fight Afghans.
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Ghazni residents demand end to casualties
Ghazni Surgar: The residents of Qara Bagh district of Ghazni last week demanded an immediate end to
civilian casualties after two civilians were killed during a US forces’ attack.
The autonomous US military operations, carried out without national government approval, have lead
to large civilian casualties. After coalition forces claimed they killed two members of the insurgent
Taliban in Qara Bagh district, local tribal leaders told the media the forces had killed civilians.
Residents in Qarabagh rallied on the streets, blocking the major highway of Kabul-Kandahar twice
during the last week. The protesters shouted slogans against Karzai’s government and the coalition
forces, while asking for an immediate end to such pre-emptive attacks and withdrawal of US forces.
The protesters marched through the streets with the dead bodies left from the US attack.
Qarabagh residents rallied as that hot topic of unprovoked coalition attacks without warning rose
within the international community. President Karzai has repeatedly asked coalition forces to carry
out joint military operations and avoid civilian casualties, but his requests haven’t been honored.
US defense secretary Robert Gates said unless coalition forces, most of whom are US soldiers, don’t
prevent the indiscriminate civilian casualties, success in the fight against terror in Afghanistan
would be impossible, and said the US would make efforts to reduce civilian causalities in the future.
Posted by: Shah Loam | Feb 4 2009 18:57 utc | 49
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