Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 25, 2009
The F-22 Overkill

The U.S. has the only 5th generation fighter plane that exists – the F-22 build by Lockheed-Martin. When the current purchase order runs out, 183 of those will have been produced at a cost of $65 billion.

There is currently a discussion to buy more of these and the Obama administration will have to make a decision in April. The new order planes would have a system price of more than $200 million a piece.

These are really good planes. In an exercise against various 4th generation fighters like the F-15 the F-22 really stood out:

In amassing 144 kills to no losses during the first week of the joint-service Northern Edge exercise in Alaska last summer, only three air-to-air "kills" were in the visual arena–two involving AIM-9 Sidewinders and one the F-22's cannon.

The plane is stealthy and can kill any other plane from a distance without being detected.

So how many does the U.S. need? The Air Force's fighter mafia says 381. But what for?

The total number of airplanes in all air forces of this world is 27,489. Of those 3,704 are in the U.S. air force which leaves 23,785 in the rest of the world.

If the F-22 can achieve a kill ration of 144:0 against still quite modern F-15, the worst case one probably has to think of is a 144:1 loss rate – i.e. the 145th enemy got lucky and hit back at the F-22. To shoot down 23,785 other planes with F-22 at a kill ratio of 144:1 would require 165 of them.

Sure, the availability of the F-22 is only 60% because its stealth skin is hard and expensive to maintain. But who would want to shoot down all military planes of the rest of the world within one day? Why not allow for a week to do so?

Some argue that it would be a good economic 'stimulus' to buy these planes. That is wrong. Any Keynesian stimulus must meet the three-T criteria: 'timely, targeted, temporary.'

Ordering more F-22 that take years to be build is not timely. As all military spending is pure consumption, the new planes will never 'produce' anything, the spending is thereby not targeted. The high costs of maintenance and ongoing pilot training for these planes is not temporary.

Additionally any Keynesian program should be as productive as possible in that it creates additional benefit for the society. A new road, healthier or better educated people are good investments. Spend on infrastructure, health care and education gives some real bang for the buck. So why employ people to make unproductive planes when the same money can employ more people in other areas AND create better total return.

What is the real benefit of more fighter planes than are needed to shoot down all of the worlds military air planes? The make U.S. go broke? Then, maybe, I should support the new F-22 buy.

Comments

I really hope BO’s people are reading MoA. Thanks for this info, b.

Posted by: Hamburger | Feb 25 2009 16:28 utc | 1

This is about total dominance. The idea that russia and china can’t evev hope to challenge the u.s. It isn’t pleasant but it makes perfect sense. Of course, the us is making the assumption that it can outspend any rival in an arms race. If china is willing to pay for us dominance it may be possible.

Posted by: Lysander | Feb 25 2009 17:07 utc | 2

Heh, China will probably get outsourced contracts for parts of the F-22, suss out the rest, and, if it needs to, be ready to build its own.
So, yeah, buying US debt has its benefits for them.

Posted by: jawbone | Feb 25 2009 17:09 utc | 3

well , at least you have a bit more chances with the “fresh & new” Ashton B. Carter, vs John D. Young who was nothing more than a Locked Martin employee
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/02/harvard_expert.html
time will tell…

Posted by: totoro | Feb 25 2009 17:19 utc | 4

You’re forgetting wedding parties.

Posted by: biklett | Feb 25 2009 18:01 utc | 5

Is there support for a “sixth generation jet” that can only be stopped by producing more copies of the F-22? And if there is, wouldn’t the production of the F-22’s be a cost-saving “compromise” of some kind?

Posted by: alabama | Feb 25 2009 19:00 utc | 6

It’s beyond me how America’s military as huge and as mighty as it is can’t make a dent in taking down ragtag terrorists operating on a shoestring budget.

Posted by: Cynthia | Feb 25 2009 19:04 utc | 7

Off topic.
Today is Ash Wednesday and I thought about imposing on the readers a penitential discipline namely reading what I will presently write.
This morning I visited my ophhalmologist who in the past month has removed my two cataracts. My life changed completely from the gloom of having so great difficulty reading and impossiblity of driving after dusk to one in which everything glows and is beautiful.
When I came out of the office I thanked God for all the goods bestowed upon me, my newly recovered sight, my recovery from a huge fracture of my right femur, fixed with a 2dm rod, my recovery from a cholecystectomy performed through a minuscule opening of the abdominal wall and carried out by using a ‘scope with resulting extreme comfort and immediate convalescence.
And while giving thanks for all the technological marvels that the Pantocrator has bestowed upon the world I reflected upon what kind of world is imagined by those that wanting to save the planet want us to go back to primitive agriculture and primitive science.
I thought that once their health was touched they would want to have at the disposal of their physicians all the tools of modern medicine and those tools presuppose advanced metallurgical and chemical science and advanced educational system in a word once the present human being places itself face to face with disease would he want to return to the age when legs were amputated without anesthesia? or when children died like flies from infected food and corrupted water?
And so on, once we accept a given cultural level all the previous conquests of the human mind appear not only necessary but indispensable.

Posted by: jlcg | Feb 25 2009 19:20 utc | 8

In one-on-one combat, the German Tiger tank could always kill a Soviet T-34 using the superior range of its larger gun. Put ten T-34s on one Tiger and the Tiger was dead – the last T-34 would get behind the Tiger’s main armour and the T-34’s lighter gun could penetrate the Tiger’s lighter flank or rear armour. The Soviet Union built over 57,000 T-34s and T34/85s during WW2 while Germany built 1,355 Tiger 1, 487 Tiger II and almost 6,000 Panthers. Guess who won?
On 7 July 1943, a single Tiger tank commanded by SS-Oberscharführer Franz Staudegger from the 2nd Platoon of 13th Panzer Company of 1st SS Division Leibstandarte SS Adolf Hitler engaged a group of about 50 T-34s around Psyolknee (the southern sector of the German salient in the Battle of Kursk). Staudegger used all his ammunition in destroying 22 Soviet tanks, while the rest retreated. For this, Staudegger was awarded the Knight’s Cross.
I suspect that if an F-22 went up against an airforce that could employ similar swarming tactics as the Red Army T-34s against Wehrmacht Tigers and Panthers, then the F-22 would not be at such an advantage. Does such an airforce exist yet? Probably not at the moment but I can’t be certain.

Posted by: blowback | Feb 25 2009 21:23 utc | 9

Cynthia@7..”ragtag terrorists”
Evidence and common sense shows that these “terrorists” are created and supported by state funded agencies, black or gray or wholly hidden, to bring along the masses in support of a two pronged long-term program: 1) Wealth accumulation by the bosses; is there yet not enough clear open evidence of this? And 2,2a) Population reduction in combination with as much bloody mass murder as can be tolerated; up to the max limit in other words.
All the wars since 1900 and before clearly support this premise once the lies are swept aside. Terror has more recently replaced nationalism as a basis for making war and accomplishing 1, 2, and 2a above. It is manufactured to order.

Posted by: rapt | Feb 25 2009 21:57 utc | 10

There is no such thing as stealth jet. All this data coming from
simulated military exercises which supposed to prove or justify investment in these toys. It is myth, low profile on radar screen yes, invisibility/stealth no.
One should bear in mind that new Russian SA system S-400 or SA-21, with 3D phased array acquisition radar can detect 200 targets per 12 sec. sweep and engage 6 or 12 targets, missile fired from S-300 can hit target at 300km.
All this is just the theory and nothing proven in real situation.

Posted by: Balkanac | Feb 25 2009 22:26 utc | 11

blowback,
During WWII, Russian partisans reported a German train loaded with 80 Tiger tanks on their way to the front parked at a railway siding alonside a munitions train. They called in an airstrike, which blew up both trains, and took out all 80 tanks.
That’s all it takes to undo the greatest technological advantage.

Posted by: ralphieboy | Feb 25 2009 22:34 utc | 12

I look at the expense of this project, and then I look at the decline in the world economy, 46% decline in Japanese exports is the latest figure, but there are many others, which no doubt b may have to hand. And I think, this is a dream, not a reality.
There’s always a delay between the emergence of a factor (the economic crisis), and the recognition of its consequences in other fields.
Very nice to hear that the US airforce wants 381 F22s. We’ll see how many really get built.

Posted by: Alex | Feb 25 2009 22:42 utc | 13

rapt,
Even if it’s true that terrorists are receiving lots of funds from various nations across the globe, the amount of funds that terrorists receive can’t possibly come close to the amount the US military receives from US taxpayers every year. This is why I’m totally baffled as to why the US hasn’t been able to put a lid on terrorism, if not stamp it out altogether.

Posted by: Cynthia | Feb 25 2009 23:27 utc | 14

We are not alone-
Link to SU-37 vs F-22

Posted by: David | Feb 25 2009 23:38 utc | 15

At present, cost per plane for the whole project is over $355 million per plane.
The most recent budget request was around $184 million for procurement cost per plane for an additional 4 last year.
More will have to be spent on upgrades & correcting maintenance defaults on already purchased planes – quoted at an additional $12 billion.
(per program costs are for the whole development divided per plane; procurement costs are how much it costs to make the aircraft, without weapons/support/outfitting costs included.)
While they are undoubtedly the most sophisticated planes in the sky, the quoted claims, 144-0, were in exercises with legacy F-15C’s – old radars, communications, etc. – under controlled conditions, ie. 1 F-22 against 2 F-15’s etc. with engagement rules setup beforehand, so the claims should be taken with a fair degree of scepticism.
They are also extremely expensive to run (2nd after the phenomenally expensive B-2 bomber), & current availability is at 60% due to high maintenance times & related problems.

Posted by: KenMac | Feb 25 2009 23:42 utc | 16

Not that I want to contribute to the military-industrial complex, but in the very near future airplanes like the F-22 will be obsolete; unmanned combat vehicles (UCAVs) will be better at air-air combat, because they can maneuver past the limits of human endurance.
If I were China or Russia, that’s where I would concentrate my efforts to counter the F-22. We have enough fighters; the prescient thing to do would be to concentrate R&D on UCAVs, then build if needed.

Posted by: JoeJoe | Feb 25 2009 23:42 utc | 17

Cynthia,
My point in #10 is that US doesn’t WANT to put a lid on, or stamp out terrorism, as it is now one of the military’s primary justifications for funding. For example, AlQaida was/is a creation of western intelligence services. Its purpose should be obvious to anyone searching for a rationale for war.

Posted by: rapt | Feb 25 2009 23:44 utc | 18

@7-@10 split,
It’s the well-dressed, not the rag-tag, terrorists that cause the most problems.

Posted by: biklett | Feb 25 2009 23:46 utc | 19

Cynthia,
The US has a lot of really super high tech and REALLY expensive weapons systems. Problem is, they aren’t particulary effective against low tech but determined enemies who, for all the overuse of the “terrorist” label, usually know the terrain and have local support or at least tolerance.
In fact, all that whiz-bang shit is counter-productive when used against insurgencies. You can’t bomb (not even precision bomb) your way to victory over insurgencies with local support. Even the most precise bomb/missile strike tends to kill a lot of bystanders – the bomb may have hit exactly where you wanted but shrapnel and building chunks go whither they may. Having a nice chunk of your neighbor’s building come through your window and kill a child in their bedroom tends to realy piss off even people who weren’t supporting the insurgents. And in areas where familial/tribal connections are important even getting jsut “the bad guys” will piss off the relatives.
Net result – use of whiz-bang and incredibly expensive weaponry creates insurgents and insurgent supporters faster than any military kill them without engaging in Roman solutions (make a desert and call it peace).

Posted by: Butch | Feb 26 2009 0:32 utc | 20

it is astounding to me butch – that there exists so many ‘ivy league’ military schools in the us & england, in fact every military institute of ‘higher’ learning & it seems they are clearly poverty stricken both in analysis & theory. i wander as some of us must to their sites & read documents (often doctorates) that are so dumb i want to wash them all into the dardenelles
& the whole myth of warrior scholars – they appear to be neither

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 26 2009 0:40 utc | 21

Apart from the absolute sheer stupidity of either aircraft carriers or fighters in a conventional war, given the state of today’s SAM and torpedo technology, all that’s left for them is is suppression of 3WD colonies, and that’s the only place you have any need for aircraft carriers or fighters these days, when suppression bombing could be just as easily accomplished with f-15 tomcats or UAV drones. Just more DOD greed, $200M dinged to taxpayers for a plane that only costs $20M to build, and add another couple billion to that, because as anyone knows who’s served, you build a new fighter, you’re building an entire process train: new hangars, new maintenance and repair, new training, new armament, oh, F-22’s lifecycle cost is way higher than $200M per plane! For what? Name the last war where fighter superiority was crucial to win the war. WWI? Name the last war where the US has fought a technology anywhere equal to ours. Korea?

Posted by: Euell Gibbons | Feb 26 2009 0:43 utc | 22

The solitary purpose those F-22’s will ever have is flaming out and augering into San Diego housing, training our next generation of ‘top guns’ on flat-top touch and goes.
There’ll come a day when our children ask why we spent $1,000B a year on a permanent military squadron, as they surreptitiously piss on our graves, in between the air-cav SWAT sweeps of their homeless internment camps and work-for-hire day-labor tenements.
Meanwhile, we sit helpless, 25 years after Reagan’s Bazillions down the black hole of aerospace, as our CIA reports North Korea will be launching an ICBM, not a satellite. Where are our Space Based Lasers? Where are our Brilliant Pebbles? Where is our vaunted Hypersonic Space Cruise Missile? They’re all at the bottom of the sea with Sponge Bob.
Maybe NASA will find them, if they ever find a way to mount their Mission to Uranus.

Posted by: Golly Gewillikers | Feb 26 2009 0:59 utc | 23

rapt,
Since the US military is so lousy at winning wars, whether the wars are against terrorists or not, we, as taxpayers, should tell those in charge of our military that we are not getting our money’s worth and cut off funds to them, forcing them to close up most, if not, all of their war-factories around the world. Look at it this way, the US military prides itself on being market-oriented, so it should have little, if any, trouble accepting the fact that its a market failure and thus be willing to face bankrupty like a man.

Posted by: Cynthia | Feb 26 2009 1:14 utc | 24

oops — I left out the “c” in bankruptcy.

Posted by: Cynthia | Feb 26 2009 1:18 utc | 25

remembereringgiap,
You know, I was just wondering whether there’s an institutional equivalent of something motorcycle riders call “target focus”. This is a very dangerous thing for a driver, but particularly a motorcycle rider (I’ve been riding motorcycles for 44 years at this point – and I’ve experienced the problem). There is a tendency for humans to focus on the most obvious threatin the field of vision – this can cause you to steer directly at the disaster you really want to avoid.
The dynamics of a 2 wheel vehicle aggravate this tendency – looking at where you want to go, through a turn, and AWAY from the obvious threat and to your line of safety are key to survival on a motorcycle.
This is pure speculation – but could the military acadamies be doing some intellectual version of target focus? So concentrated on a narrowly defined problem that they can’t recognize the larger picture and the paths around the problem?

Posted by: Butch | Feb 26 2009 4:01 utc | 26

The U.S. has the only 5th generation fighter plane that exists – the F-22 build by Lockheed-Martin. When the current purchase order runs out, 183 of those will have been produced at a cost of $65 billion
Another link to the Russian SU-37, watch as the pilot stalls the plane and starts it tumbling end over end before recovering it and continues flying – He does this on purpose and it is something to see. Scary to think about what a move like that could do in a dog fight… and the SU-37 is stealth capable.
SU-37
I’m not saying we need to buy more of the F-22s only that it isn’t the only bad ass fighter out there. There is always going to be better technology to kill people with. But for the amount of money militaries spend buying all these fancy toys, the world could be fed, clothed, educated, housed, and then the crazy politicians could still afford to kill as many people with good old fashioned bullets and old fashioned automatic weapons as they normally do, and I’d bet there’d still be money left over to pay for funerals.
And maybe if we spent the money on feeding and housing the world, there’d be less desire for anyone to kill anybody else The folks in the suburbs that have jobs, houses and food don’t spend much of their day shooting and killing neighbors, funny how a full belly will make a person lose that killing urge.

Posted by: David | Feb 26 2009 4:35 utc | 27

(Nitpicking alert) From b’s link above,the F-22 is the only operational 5th gen fighter — the F-35 (aka joint fighter) first flight was in 2006. The F-35, though, when operational will not be a true multi-use plane like the F-22.
A slew of other nations are developing their own 5th generation planes, including China and Russia (in a joint effort with India!).
Sooo, the military logic (as far as it can be called “logic”) is to get “more” F-22’s before the Other Guys get “some”. I guess you might call it maintaining the 5th gen fighter gap.
And yes, @ #5, the F-22 does do wedding parties with or without invitations…

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Feb 26 2009 6:33 utc | 28

b, your closing comment
“make the U.S. go broke? Then, maybe, I should support the new F-22 buy”
proves the old adage that “many a true word is spoken in jest”. I frankly don’t care if the U.S. increases its Pentagon budget from its current $ 850 billion to $ 10 trillion. The U.S. is only hurting itself, and not one cent of the Pentagon budget is of the remotest use when it comes to “winning hearts and minds”. The more the U.S. spends on the military, the less popular it becomes according to every global opinion poll I’ve seen during the past 5 years.
If the U.S. spent its current Pentagon budget on rebuilding 3rd world infrastructure it wouldn’t need to attack anyone and would boost U.S. employment, eliminate its endemic trade deficit and truly become the “shining light on the hill”.
But noooooooo, that would be too easy: The U.S. likes to do things the difficult way and will invariably seek the worst possible solution to its own and global problems.
Back to your comment, b: Maybe the U.S. does indeed need to go flat-broke to turn the people and the politicians against the Pentagon and the rest of the intel-military complex.

Posted by: Parviz | Feb 26 2009 7:06 utc | 29

Cynthia (24), re “Look at it this way, the US military prides itself on being market-oriented, so it should have little, if any, trouble accepting the fact that its a market failure and thus be willing to face bankrupty like a man”.
I assume that was tongue-in-cheek! The Pentagon will not only “have trouble accepting the fact that its a market failure” but will fight reform with its dying breath.
Have you forgotten the $ 600 jet fighter toilet seats in the Eighties (= $ 2,000 per seat in today’s money) that weren’t even gold-plated? Or more recently:
A contractor charged $76 for 57¢ screws.
Another contractor charged $714 for a bell.
Prices were inflated by more than 1,000 percent on a variety of spare parts.
The government was billed $6.1 million for parts that were worth $1.6 million.


1999 POGO article

Posted by: Parviz | Feb 26 2009 7:31 utc | 30

“make the U.S. go broke? Then, maybe, I should support the new F-22 buy”
This is what they claimed Reagan did to USSR – in fact its military budget had already been stretched to the limit a decade earlier, but still, the USA, more than everyone else, should know better and avoid the pitfall of being in an arms race and get broke, particularly when there’s no competition except themselves.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Feb 26 2009 8:46 utc | 31

There goes the F-22 – It’s going to be rough in the Pentagon: Pentagon critic tapped to be weapons buyer

President Barack Obama has nominated Harvard professor Ashton Carter, a leading authority on arms control and a longtime academic, to serve as the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer, the White House announced Monday.
The choice of Carter to run the office that oversees hundreds of billions of dollars for new weapons and research — and is the focus of intense lobbying by defense firms, retired generals, and members of Congress — sparked concern within the defense industry and parts of the Pentagon bureaucracy when it was first rumored last month, the Boston Globe reported in its Tuesday editions.
But that may be exactly what Obama and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wanted, the Globe noted.
Unlike most of his predecessors, Carter has no professional ties to America’s arms makers or manufacturing industry, nor has he spent his career in procurement, according to the report. Instead, from his perch at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, Carter has been criticizing the Pentagon for buying too much armament it does not need.

“He is not being brought in to help the defense industry thrive,” Loren Thompson, president of the Lexington Institution think tank told the paper. “He is being brought in to decide what we need and what we can do without.”

Posted by: b | Feb 26 2009 14:15 utc | 32