Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 23, 2009
Pressure on Zardari

Secret U.S. Unit Trains Commandos in Pakistan reports the NYT. This on the same day as the Pakistani Foreign Minister comes to Washington for Obama's strategic review, i.e. to receive orders. It comes on top of the recent announcement that U.S. killer drones are launched from Pakistani ground.

All these leaks are done to put pressure on the Pakistani government to go with the U.S. program without regard of its own people. With each day losing more respect in his own country through such leaks Zardari will soon solely depend on U.S. support to survive.

His recent peace offer to opposition fighters in Swat was a smart move. But in the 'west' it was immediately criticized and he will now be pressured to continue the fighting there.

For some background on the complicate sovereign and legal issues in Swat this (pdf) analysis by Sultan-i-Rome, a history Professor in Peshawar, is helpful.

The 'western' interference neglects that the people in Swat do have real grievance with the central government. Swat was a independent state/kingdom within Pakistan until 1969. The area had its own mild version of Sharia, Islam based law, and its own system of courts. The secular justice system the Pakistani government introduced in Swat since 1975 is unworkable as it takes years to get any case through the court system. The laws are unrepresentative:

[T]he area’s constitutional status has also created a sort of diarchy: the area is a Provincially Administered Tribal Area and hence, under the control of the provincial government, which is responsible for the maintenance of law and order. But the provincial government has no authority to make and promulgate laws for the area on its own. This is done with the consent of and by the governor of the province and president of the country; both of whom are neither part of the provincial government nor answerable to it. They are not answerable to the people either.

The fighting over a local justice system has continued since the early 1990s and has little to do with the Taliban issues in Afghanistan. A compromise in Swat could actually help to take away support from Wahabbi/Deobandi hardliners that are at the core of the Taliban.

Even without 'western' interference a compromise as now in negotiation will not be easy to achieve as there are already many other possible spoilers. Pressure on Zardari on this issue can only increase the strife in Pakistan and speed up his downfall.

What is Washington's Plan B when that happens?

Comments

Plan B: The Power of Prayer

Posted by: Li | Feb 23 2009 17:42 utc | 1

Plan B? or the real plan?
The real plan is to cause enough destabilization and mayhem in Pakistan so as to justify placing troops in this country. And neutralizing the nukes.
But, would this happen? Not by a long shot.

Posted by: a | Feb 23 2009 20:22 utc | 2

Bernhard, do you think the training camps and drone launching pads in Pakistan exist with Zardari’s consent or in spite of his disapproval?

Posted by: Copeland | Feb 23 2009 21:26 utc | 3

@Copeland – Zardari will know about the camps/predators as will the army chief. His prime minister Gilani probably did not know about them.

Posted by: b | Feb 24 2009 5:27 utc | 4

Wow – Zardari just disabled his competitor:
Supreme Court rules against Sharif brothers

Pakistan’s Supreme Court nullified on Wednesday the election last year of Punjab province’s chief minister, a lawyer said, effectively dismissing Shahbaz Sharif and raising fears of renewed political instability.
The court also declined to rule on a challenge to an electoral ban on Punjab chief minister Shahbaz Sharif’s brother, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, effectively maintaining a bar on him standing for election.

So the Supreme Court, which was stocked by Musharraf – something Zardari never corrected despite campaign promises, simply declares the governor of the biggest Pakistani state ineligible.
It was a two sentence decision without reasoning.
Next month there will be another big lawyers march on Islamabad and the Sharif brothers will join it.
I believe Zardari would not survive such a march. Will he or the military try to prevent it?
BTW: The Saudis who want Sharif in will be furious and increase their Taliban financing …

Posted by: b | Feb 25 2009 11:34 utc | 5

This verdict was being expected for quite some time. This is the reason why the Sharifs had become more animated recently.
Couple of impressions in the above post I think are in-accurate. The Zardari’s regime is not the army’s baby. The army is neutral in the current political dispute, they will not act to either save or sink Zardari.
The courts were recently restocked by Zardari. The people who are the most to blame are the Sharif brothers themselves. Their hardline on the judiciary issue has gotten them in this mess.
It all depends now how I think the govt handles the crisis. There are mass protests in Lahore and other Punjab cities. Lets see how far they go, and what is the turnout in the Lawyers rally. The Zaradri govt is definitely under attack right now. Lets see what will happen. It is too early to tell. But their days look numbered.

Posted by: a | Feb 25 2009 19:24 utc | 6

How much sovereignty has Pakistan conceded?


Far more critical is the lying and cheating the governments of Pakistan have been indulging in with their own people as they have gradually conceded more and more sovereignty to the U.S.A. We now know that the drone attacks have not only been done with the complicity of the Pakistan government (with both the military and civilian components giving their assent) but also with the provision of a special drone airbase at Bandari, about 87 kilometres from Kharan in Balochistan. There has been a deliberate effort to confuse the issue by citing the Shamsi base close to the Iranian border, built by an expansion of the old Juzzak airport, which is actually primarily being used by the U.S. to destabilize Iran. The drone airfield is a separate clandestine one that does not figure even in the international list of the 22 restricted areas identified in Pakistan – because the drone base is not controlled at all by the Pakistan military – it has simply been handed over to the U.S. to do with as they please. Even more pathetic is the news that our air defense personnel are now embedded in the U.S. embassy in Islamabad to ensure the safety of the drones as they go about killing fellow Pakistanis.

Nor is the drone issue the only major relinquishing of state sovereignty by Pakistan. The New York Times has revealed what many of us had been writing about for some time now, that the U.S. has around 70 military advisers and technical specialists who are training our military to fight Al Qaeda. That is comical given the lack of success the U.S. is having fighting this beast in Afghanistan! Apparently this secret task force has been in Pakistan since summer 2008 – although there have been sightings of the odd foreigner much earlier in the area around Warsak!
Then there is the access given to the FBI to accompany our security forces as they make their arrests. Why? Is it because the U.S. does not trust our security forces? There are also revelations coming in of how the British were part of the torture machinery of Pakistani prisoners alongside our agencies. Now where will all this go? Will we soon simply hand over our nuclear assets to the U.S. also for “security” reasons – if we have not already done so! After all, with all the duplicity going on, who can trust the state anymore to tell the truth?

Posted by: a | Feb 28 2009 9:40 utc | 7