Scary Economic News
So far I was on the opinion side of 'a big global recession'. I now officially move into the 'massive global depression' camp. These numbers are huge. But what is really scary are not the huge numbers but the speed at which the occcure. That speed is unprecedented. It may turn this beast globally into something very different, i.e. much worse, than the Great Depression the U.S. had in the 1930s.
The cars of that time made some 30 miles per hour. The recent modern globalized economy car, financed by zero-rate credit, made some 200+ miles per hour. It now ran into a human wall at full speed. While the modern car has some safety belts that protect the drivers, the damage for the crowd the car ran into will likely be much bigger than in the earlier crash.
Kenya hit by drought, food prices and grain shortage
Field after field of maize across the marginal agricultural areas of Kenya stands blitzed by the tropical sun, unable to mature after the rains failed. For many, this is the third consecutive failed harvest.
Cancellations exceed orders at both Airbus and Boeing
Both Airbus and Boeing have dipped into negative net orders for the year to date, having suffered more cancellations than secured sales.
South Korean Exports Fall by Record, China Manufacturing Slumps
South Korea’s shipments fell 32.8 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said. Manufacturing in China shrank for a sixth month, the CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index showed.
Japan output falls at record pace, unemployment rises
The government also said that production is expected to decrease 9.1% in January and 4.7% in February, according to its Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing.
If the projected cuts materialize, Japan's industrial output would have shrunk by one-third over the space of a year, according to calculations by J.P. Morgan. The contraction effectively knocks Japan's industrial economy back to roughly the size it was in the mid-to-late 1980s.
German industrial orders fall sharply
Germany’s economic ministry reported orders fell by 6.9 per cent in December, extending a 5.3 per cent fall in November. It was the fourth consecutive monthly fall and much larger than expected. December’s industrial orders from within the eurozone were tumbled by more than 15 per cent.
..
Earlier, Spain had reported a record 19.6 per cent fall in industrial output in the year to December as businesses and households reeled from the collapse of the country’s housing bubble.
Payrolls plunge by 598,000, the most since 1974
Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 598,000 in January, on the heels of a revised loss of 577,000 in December, the [U.S.] government said.
IDLE CONTAINER FLEET REACHES 675,000 TEUS
The number of laid-up container ships reached 255 vessels by mid-January as the global economic downturn forces carriers to continue to retrench. The idle ships have a capacity of 675,000 TEUs. That represents 5.5 percent of the world container shipping fleet by capacity, according to AXS-Alphaliner, a Paris-based consultant.
...
The situation will only get worse for the carriers as deliveries of new ships will swell the world fleet about 14 percent this year, Alphaliner said.
China suffering worst drought in 50 years
Since November northern and central China has had little rain. Many places have not had rainfall for more than 100 days.
..
"The extent of drought is quite extensive, the impact is quite great," forecaster Zhang Peiqun said in an interview with state television CCTV. "Rainfall on average has been 50 to 80 percent less than that of last year."
Posted by b on February 6, 2009 at 19:28 UTC | Permalink | Comments (61)
Trust And Interest Rates on Treasuries
Obama has an op-ed in the Washington Post promoting his 'stimulus' package. Boilerplate bipartisan stuff David Broder could have written.
The package is getting bigger by the day, but the effective part of - timely, temporary and targeted measures - is shrinking.
The economic team Obama assembled is certainly proving that it is as bad as many have feared. 'Bad bank' plans and buying up 'troubled assets' are simply the wrong measures.
Temporarily nationalize the banks under some bankruptcy rule. Write down their 'assets' to some realistic value, make the shareholders and debt-holders take the necessary big haircuts and in two a three years privatize those banks again.
Willem Buiter compares the U.S. and the UK's economies to emerging market economies in trouble. The only plus side the U.S. still has above an emerging market in trouble is the reserve status of the dollar. But that status depends on trust. The U.S. and Obama's administration now have little credibility and doing all the wrong stuff risks a rout in treasuries and the dollar value. There are signs that the process already started:
The US Treasury on Wednesday opened the floodgates of government bond issuance, revealing plans for a record debt sale in February and more frequent auctions in the months to come.
The announcement came amid growing fears about US government deficits and sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rising to 2.95 per cent, up from just over 2 per cent at the end of December.
Buiter therefore now argues against any 'stimulus'. Better do nothing than all the wrong stuff.
Nouriell Roubini compares the U.S. to Japan in the 1990s and sees a repeat of all mistakes the Japanese made. Especially not cleaning up the banks will turn out to be disastrous.
In short: The Obama administration is trying its best to turn a sharp recession that could recover into a prolonged period of no or lower growth that will for many feel like a depression.
There is one guy who is supposed to advice Obama that still has international credibility. That would be Paul Volkers. But Obama's National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers is shutting him out.
With trillions of new treasuries on offer this year but decreasing trust in the ability of an Obama administration do the right things now to later increase taxes to pay back all the new debt, interest rates might get out of hand pretty fast.
Posted by b on February 5, 2009 at 14:34 UTC | Permalink | Comments (77)
The New World Order
Malooga asks everyone to read this (also here as the Feb 2 entry titled A Brief History of the New World Order).
Long and conspirish, but an interesting take of history since 1900.
Posted by b on February 4, 2009 at 7:08 UTC | Permalink | Comments (73)
Congratulations to the People of Iran
Iran today successfully launched a small telecommunication satellite. To do so is a great engineering achievement for any nation. Especially when under sanctions and thereby restricted in sourcing.
Including Iran only nine nations so far succeeded in launching satellites at all.
Dear Iranis, not that I like your government, I do not like mine either, but here are my very congrats to the People of Iran! The Arms Control Wonks congratulate too.
Links: launch video, launch animation
Posted by b on February 3, 2009 at 20:12 UTC | Permalink | Comments (56)
The Pink Route To Afghanistan
(UPDATED with new Kyrgyzstan development at 2pm est)"[In Afghanistan] a small army would be annihilated and a large one starved."
Duke of Wellington (1769-1852) (source)
A new supply route into Afghanistan is getting more urgent by the day. Russia is squeezing the U.S.' balls in negotiations over a route through its country. Now Iran might get the chance to do the same.
Today an important bridge in Pakistan went down:
The bridge in the Khyber district was blown up at 0600 local time (0100 GMT) and all traffic on the road had been suspended, news agency AFP quoted key official, Tariq Hayat, as saying.
...
The 30-metre (100-foot) iron bridge is 23km (15 miles) west of Peshawar.
To repair a 30 meter steel bridge in the volatile area will require some time, possibly weeks.
Some stuff was already missing in the mess halls and PX shops on U.S. bases in Afghanistan:
The milk is now pulled from the mess hall by 9 a.m., to ration the limited supply.
...
At the Camp Phoenix base store nearby, the shelves look bare. There's no Irish Spring Body Wash, no Doritos, no Tostitos Scoops, no Bayer Aspirin.
...
"I've never seen the store this empty, ever," said Ula Loi, the store manager.
Early last year 600 to 800 trucks per day were going from Karachi through Peshawar and the Khyber pass to Kabul and the U.S. main base in Bagram. After several attacks the traffic on that route had already been reduced to some 300-400 trucks per day with another 100+ per day going from Karachi through Torkham to Kandahar.
Even with those 500+ trucks per day, the PX had empty shelfs and the mess hall lacked milk. With 300-400 trucks less per day now military operations will have to be reduced.
The U.S. also has an air-base in Kyrgyzstan for flying supplies to Afghanistan which is also in trouble:
The base, located on the outskirts of Bishkek and home to over 1,000 military personnel, was established in 2001 after the start of the U.S-led military operation in Afghanistan. Recent media reports said the Kyrgyz government was considering to shut it down.
It may be that Russia has a hand in this:
Russia is offering the indebted ex-Soviet state a grant of 150 million dollars and a loan of 300 million dollars and is lining up major investment in return for closure of the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan, Kommersant reported.
In an earlier piece I said Russia "has the U.S. by the balls." Now it is squeezing.
---
UPDATE (2pm est): Just in: NYT Kyrgyzstan Said to Deny Base to U.S.
Kyrgyzstan is ending U.S. use of a key airbase that supports military operations in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan's president was quoted as saying Tuesday.
End-Update
---
Five possible routes into Afghanistan have been discussed.
bigger
The blue line is the exiting and endangered route through Pakistan. The green line through China is unlikely to happen as China prefers to stay out of imperial adventures. The red line is the Caspian route the U.S. would prefer (also as a pipeline route) but which is blocked due to Russian influence on Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The yellow line is under negotiation and will have a heavy political price.
Petraeus' premature announcement that the yellow route through through Russia had been secured increased the price the U.S. will have to pay for it. Next to lots of money Russia wants:
- a renewed START strategic arms reduction treaty
- no further NATO expansion in Eastern Europe or Central Asia
- no missile defense in Eastern Europe
The U.S. is desperate over the logistic situation in Afghanistan and the Russians know it:
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov agreed on Tuesday to work more closely on key strategic issues, Russia's Foreign Ministry said.
...
The two foreign ministers spoke by telephone at the request of Washington, the ministry said in a statement.
...
"Especially noted was the importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation, including questions of strategic dialogue and economic cooperation, as well as current international problems such as the resolution of (the situation in) Afghanistan," the statement said.
Note the sequence of Lavrov's points. For Russia the route to Afghanistan is at the end of other issues.
There is of course the pink route left. Supply through Iran was unthinkable so far, but the urgency of the situation makes the earlier unthinkable possible:
NATO would not oppose individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan as an alternative to using increasingly risky routes from Pakistan, the alliance's top military commander said Monday.
Gen. John Craddock's comments came just days after NATO's secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, urged the U.S. and other members of the Western military alliance to engage with Iran to combat Taliban militants in Afghanistan.
I can hear the alarms bells in Tel Aviv going off over this. A U.S. ally (Germany, Canada?) or the U.S. itself supplying through Iran's port Char Bahar makes an Israeli or U.S. attack on Iran politically at least much more difficult if not impossible.
Iran said earlier it would prefer that the U.S. pulls out of Afghanistan.
But it may want to wait and see what the Russians will get for their route and then rethink its position.
Having a U.S. ally or the U.S. itself depend on Iran for supply in Afghanistan could be a major diplomatic asset and open up new possibilities.
Without Russia's and without Iran's help, the U.S. is unlikely to succeed in Afghanistan.
Russia is using its ability to squeeze the empire's ball over logistic lines to Afghanistan. Iran should think about gaining that capability and opportunity too.
---
earlier coverage of Afghanistan logistics at MoA:
The Costly New Supply Route To Afghanistan, Jan 26, 2009
New Supply Routes To Afghanistan, Nov 19, 2008
Fuel for War in Afghanistan Aug 20, 2008
The Road War in Afghanistan Aug 16, 2008
Fuel Tanker Attacks in Afghanistan Mar 24, 2008
Posted by b on February 3, 2009 at 15:50 UTC | Permalink | Comments (59)
Provincial Elections In Iraq
An election under occupation is always a very dubious endeavor. In most cases the outcome is shaped by those in power and under the protection of the occupier. The provincial elections in Iraq again show this.
Preliminary results get leaked and shape the expectation and analysis in the west. I doubt that these results reflect the reality. But after successfully shaping the expectations through leaks and propaganda, the outcome is easier to arranged to fit those. Allegations of fraud will be dismissed because the results are already known to the public due to the expectation shaping.
The Washington Post writes:
Hmmm - according to 'party activists, election officials and observers'. Not one of these persons is named. Could these folks have special interests in leaking specific trends? You bet.
Yesterday the NYT headlined: Secular Parties and Premier Lead in Iraq
Mr. Maliki’s Dawa Party drew strong support in Basra and Baghdad, two of Iraq’s largest and most politically important provinces, according to political parties and election officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss preliminary tallies.
The relative success of the secular parties may be a sign that a significant number of Iraqis are disillusioned with the religious parties that have been in power but have done little to deliver needed services.
Again - anonymous sources. How many of those were from the U.S. government or military?
And why is stated that secular parties were successful when Dawa is said to get so many votes?
Patrick Cockburn of The Independent also falls into the secular trap:
The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who seemed weak and isolated a year ago, appears to have won a sweeping victory in the Iraqi provincial elections that will strengthen his hold on central government. For the first time since the fall of Saddam Hussein, according to preliminary results, Iraqi voters chose secular and nationalist parties over their religious rivals.
Uhh - what nonsense. The full name of Maliki's Dawa party is Ḥizb al Daʿwa al-Islāmiyya:
The political ideology of al-Da'wa is heavily influenced by work done by Baqr al-Sadr who laid out four mandatory principles of governance in his 1975 work, Islamic Political System. These were:
- Absolute sovereignty belongs to God.
- Islamic injunctions are the basis of legislation. The legislative authority may enact any law not repugnant to Islam.
- The people, as vice-regents of Allah, are entrusted with legislative and executive powers.
- The jurist holding religious authority represents Islam. By confirming legislative and executive actions, he gives them legality."
Dawa, the Islamic Call Party long headquarter in and supported by Tehran, is now said to have won 50% of the votes in Basra and other provinces. We are now told to believe that this is a secular and nationalist victory?
Oh my ...
Posted by b on February 3, 2009 at 7:59 UTC | Permalink | Comments (13)
"Thirst No More" Is Who?
Reuters headlines: Sudan expels US aid group over bibles - state media:
A United States aid group has been thrown out of Sudan's Darfur region after officials found thousands of Arabic-language bibles stacked in its office, state media reported on Saturday.
Sudanese authorities told the state Suna news agency they found 3,400 copies of Christianity's sacred book in the office run by water charity Thirst No More in North Darfur, a region that is almost entirely Muslim.
...
Thirst No More country director Charlie Michalik, speaking to Reuters in Khartoum, confirmed officials were carrying out an investigation into his organisation's work, but declined to go into further detail.Thirst No More's website describes its work in Darfur as focused on repairing and drilling water wells and makes no mention of evangelism or other faith-based work.
The vast majority of aid groups in Darfur, including ones with religious foundations, voluntarily sign up to a Red Cross code of conduct that says aid should not be used "to further a particular political or religious standpoint".
The ThirstNoMore.org website consists mainly of "Coming Soon" items. Even the "About" section is 'Coming Soon' - apparently since 2006.
It is registered to one Craig Miller under a PO box in Briggs, Texas. His email address domain, craig@globalimpact.info, is registered by one Evie Wilson, Vision Design, at a PO box in Kaysville, Utah. There seems to be no trace of Vision Design on the web.
Thirst No More claims to have done some operation within the U.S. and in South America. But on their site are only a bunch of seemingly agency pictures.
It's blog carries only 17 entries since October 2006.
One website of anonymous origin, Art For Darfur, says:
Thirst No More is a global organization that builds and repairs water pumps in crisis areas. Sudan Project coordinator, Charlie Michalik, is a U.S. Army veteran of the first Gulf War and has extensive experience in the Mid-East. For the past three years he has been restoring broken water wells in Darfur and laying the groundwork for a water drilling operation that will begin shortly. Paulette and Bob met up with Charlie and his family in El Fashir, where they began traveling to villages, meeting with Darfuri people and even repairing a few wells with their own hands.
As regular readers here will know, I do have a bit of experience in sleuthing around the web. The 'Thirst No More' thingy seems to me to be a quite untraceable entity. There is little, or nothing, about Charlie Michalik or others involved. Why?
Who is running this and for what reason?
Posted by b on February 2, 2009 at 20:29 UTC | Permalink | Comments (23)
OT 09-05
Open thread ... news and views ...
Posted by b on February 2, 2009 at 13:17 UTC | Permalink | Comments (84)
The "Iranian" Weapon Ships
There seems to be some confusion in the media about ships from Iran that allegedly transport Iranian weapons to Gaza and elsewhere. bea asked to look into it.
Israels aim is to further isolate Iran by any means and to use the U.S. and other countries to do their bidding. To that end it alleges Iranian support for its enemies, currently especially Hamas, and its propaganda machine is doing a hell of a job to confuse the world with disinformation about this.
For starters, let us note that there is no proof at all for any Iranian weapons used by Hamas in defense against the latest assault against Gaza. Over to a former director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Colonel Pat Lang:
It is claimed by the agitpropers that Hamas is a satellite organization of Iran. If that is so, then Iran has done a poor job of supplying their Palestinian subsidiary. Where are the Iranian product improved and manufactured weapons that Hizbullah possessed in numbers in '06? Where are they? Impossible to deliver? All of them?
It would seem that political support and encouragement is one thing. Supply is another.
The best rockets Hamas used so far, says Israeli intelligence, are from China, not Iran. Such weapons get stolen from the Egyptian army or bought from international weapon dealers and smuggled for a profit by Bedouin nomads through the Sinai and through tunnels into Gaza. There is no proof of any Iranian supply of weaponry to Gaza at all.
Onto those ships. There are two in question that are mentioned, and mixed up, in recent news reports.
An Iranian ship with Red Crescent humanitarian goods which was denied access to Gaza and to Egypt and is now in Beirut. That ships name is Iran Shahid, IMO 9184591 (Picture)
A Russian container ship that is transporting some stuff from Iran to Syria and elsewhere and was searched last week by the U.S. Navy. There is yet no proof that it carries any weapon or ammunition at all. It is now in Cyprus. Here is a picture of the Monchegorsk, IMO 8013039.
On December 10 the Iranian Red Crescent announced to send 1,000 tons of humanitarian goods as relief to Gaza:
The official did not disclose the nationality of the ship, but said the cargo will include 500 tonnes of wheat, 200 tonnes of sugar, 200 tonnes of rice, 50 tonnes of cooking oil and 50 tonnes of medical supplies.
The text to a Getty/AFP image late December says:
Iranian Red Crescent workers pack medical aid into boxes before uploading them onto the 'Iran Shahed' ship to send to Gaza Strip in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas on December 28, 2008.
On January 14 the Red Crescent said that the ship was turned back by the Israeli Navy and would try to land its load in the Mediterranean Egypt port of el-Arish to be trucked into Gaza. Egypt denied the ship access to el-Arish and on January 30 it arrived in Beirut. The name of the captain is Qaleh-Golab.
Of course if you believe the Israeli disinformation service Debka:
the vessel has been converted into a floating logistical headquarters for the Hamas leadership, with Hamas frogmen using fishing boats to keep them connected.
Hamas frogmen ....
Now onto the second ship. Here the reporting is fudged incredibly by Israeli disinformation.
Like this report today from the Jerusalem Post:
[T]he American Aviation Week magazine reported Sunday that the US prevented Israel from raiding an Iranian ship believed to be carrying weaponry and explosives for Hamas.
According to the report, the Americans stopped the operation because they wanted to avoid an Iranian-Israeli confrontation.
Aviation Week reporting on naval issues? But indeed the usually reliable Aviation Week blog for military issues Ares gives it a sad try:
The Cypriot Navy has stopped an Iranian ship, believed to be carrying weapons for Hamas, on its way to Syria, Israeli security officials told The Jerusalem Post last Thursday night.
...
According to unofficial intelligence reports, the Iran Shahed set out from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas Dec. 29, the second day of the Gaza conflict, changing its identity several times until hoisting a Cypriot flag. The vessel was stopped by the US Sixth Fleet in the Gulf of Aden on its way to Egypt, where it was believed to have planned to unload its cargo, which was then to be smuggled into the Gaza Strip.
...
According to unconfirmed reports, the Israelis tried to seize the boat in the Red Sea (...). But the Americans decided not to give the Israeli Navy a chance to seize the vessel and tow it to Eilat for fear of a Tehran ultimatum to Jerusalem, followed by Iranian attacks on Israeli and US naval craft patrolling the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.
Lots of nonsense in those two graphs and the rest of it is only worse. The Red Crescent goods ship is named Iran Shahed, not the allegedly weapon carrying ship. And why would the U.S. Navy "tow" a ship that can drive by itself?
Notice that the blog entry is by one David Eshel - a retired Colonel of the Israeli army.
Another Debka piece has a sentences that reappears word for word in the Aviation Week blog entry.
The Americans decided not to give the Israeli Navy a chance to seize the vessel and tow it to Eilat ...
So that's how the circle goes. The Jerusalem Post report above is based on an Aviation Week blog entry from a retired Israeli officer who's sources are Debka and the Jerusalem Post.
The same Jerusalem Post article includes this:
The Cyprus Mail newspaper quoted military officials as saying that the boat was carrying hundreds of tons of explosives and that authorities were considering moving the vessel to Larnaca Port.
The Cyprus Mail did not do so. It wrote:
High-ranking army and police officers, however, conducted an initial search to the cargo and reportedly found over hundreds of tons of explosives, reports said.
Cyprus Mail says "reportedly". It did not quote officials. But who "reported" this? Debka? The Jerusalem Post? We don't know, but I suspect it is wrong as the ship, according to the Cyprus Mail, has not even started to unload yet.
The ship in question is a Russian container ship Monchegorsk that sails under the flag of Cyprus. On January 19 the U.S. Navy stopped the ship in the Red Sea and requested to search it. The master, says the U.S. navy, agreed to the search.
On January 20 DEBKA alleged:
US and Egyptian warships were scouring the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea Tuesday, Jan. 20 to waylay an Iranian freighter carrying scores of heavy rockets for delivery to Hamas. DEBKAfile's exclusive sources report they were acting on intelligence that a ship loaded with an estimated 60 tons of arms to replenish Hamas' depleted war stocks had set out from the Iranian Persian Gulf port of Bandar Abbas on Jan. 17.
Our sources reveal that the arms-smuggling vessel started its voyage as the Iran-Hedayat and changed its name in mid sea to Famagustus registered to Panama. The captain was ordered by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to unload its cargo at a smugglers cove on the southeastern coast of Sinai opposite the Gulf of Suez, to be picked up by armed Bedouin gangs and moved to El Arish in northern Sinai. From there the contraband rockets were to be slipped gradually into the Gaza Strip.
Hmm - smuggler coves ... ?
On January 22 AP reported:
The U.S. military intercepted and searched an Iranian-owned ship that officials feared was carrying arms to the militant group Hamas, but two officials said it was unclear Thursday whether those suspicions were founded.
...
One official said the two-day search turned up ammunition that included artillery shells; and since Hamas is not known to use artillery, officials are now uncertain who the intended recipient was.
This "two officials" "one official" thingy is curious.
AP later said:
The Navy searched the ship with permission of the captain and found small munitions, military officials said.
So one "official" alleges artillery shells, while later "military officials" only talk about small munitions. The AP should straighten up its reporting ...
Point 5 of UN resolution 1747 (pdf) prohibits Iranian arms exports.
If the U.S. would have found anything but a few small weapons or munitions (btw - quite usable against pirates said to be in that area) from Iran on board of that ship it would have had reason to detain it or to seize the cargo.
But even Admiral Mullen said there was not enough evidence to do so:
QUESTION: Tal Schneider from Maariv newspaper, Israel. I want to ask about the anti-smuggling efforts that the U.S. Navy has done in Suez Canal, stopping an Iranian ship that was smuggling probably weapons. And is the U.S. intention to convene a conference about anti-smuggling to Gaza Strip in the near future?
ADM MULLEN: Actually, it was a Cypriot-flagged ship that was boarded by a U.S. Navy boarding team after requesting permission from the master and receiving permission to go aboard to inspect for weapons which were – which were considered – which were considered to go against the UN Security Council resolution which banned these kinds of weapons from being shipped from Iran, which is where they came from, to Syria, which is where we believe they’re headed and, in fact, will probably get there in the next day or so.
The United States did as much as we could do legally. There are authorities, limitations in complying with this particular UN resolution, and we basically went right up to the edge of that and we couldn't do anything else. So we were not authorized to seize the weapons or do anything like that.
So the navy found nothing that would be against the prohibitions in UN resolution 1747. If you reread the above you will find that Mullen does not even confirm that the navy found anything at all.
He also had this gem:
... shipping weapons to Syria that we think, quite frankly, are going to end up in Gaza.
Could the Admiral please check a map? What countries lie between Syria and Gaza? Would they allow weapons transfer from Syria to Gaza? Duh.
The ship was stopped and searched in the Red Sea by the U.S. amphibious transport dock ship USS San Antonio, which is currently supposed to hunt pirates with task force 151 at the Somali coast. Instead it is pirating Russian ships.
The Monchegorsk then passed through the Suez Channel and was greeted in the Mediterranean by the U.S. Navy.
According to the Cyprus Mail:
‘Monchegorsk,’ a Russian-owned ship was yesterday docked at Limassol, a day after the US navy intercepted the vessel at the Suez Canal and led it to Cyprus.
The US and Israel believe the ship, which set off from Iran, was carrying arms, weaponry and explosives for Hamas and Hezbollah, although Russia insists it is a commercial vessel which was carrying cargo from Iran to Syria.
...
Washington has asked the Cypriot authorities to hold the vessel and its crew, thoroughly check its cargo and ensure all its documents are in order.
A later Cyprus Mail report says:
The vessel is being investigated after the US and Israel said it was suspected of carrying Iranian weapons to Gaza.
Russia, on the other hand, says it is a completely legal and commercial container.
The US government has asked for the ship to be investigated and its documents examined.
The ship, which according to reports was heading from Iran to Syria, was forced by the US navy to moor in Cyprus.
According to CyBC, the vessel is expected to remain off the coast for the next two days, until a decision is taken on the matter.
Yesterday Haaretz cited "Israeli officials" saying the Cypriot inspectors found tank ammunition for T-72 tanks and various mortar rounds on the ship.
Maybe in those "secret holds" Debka phantazises about?"
Whatever: Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas have T-72 tanks. The Syrian army has Russian build T-72 tanks. A Russian ship carrying T-72 shells to Syria should not surprise anyone.
But where is the load - if it exists - from?
No source gives any proof that the ammunition, if it exist at all, is actually from Iran or even destined for Syria. Container ships usually load and unload at several harbors along a fixed circle route. That a ship carries something after having visited port C does not mean that the stuff was loaded there and is destined for port D. The stuff might have been loaded at port A or B and be destined for port E or F.
So let us summarize:
One Iranian ship with a humanitarian load was not allowed to land that load in Gaza or Egypt and therefore carried it to Beirut. Good food for poor Shiites in South-Lebanon I guess.
A Russian ship under Cyprus flag and on the way from Iran to Syria was held up and searched by the U.S. Navy, with permission from the master. The U.S. Navy did not find anything that would have allowed it to act under UN Resolution 1747 but escorted the ship to Cyprus for whatever.
The Russians say the ship carries only legitimate load.
All reports about anything more than a few small weapons on that ship are solely based on Israeli reports based on dubious sources.
There is a quite extensive effort by the Israeli disinformation circles to fudge these issue and to thereby make Iran look bad.
Posted by b on February 1, 2009 at 16:47 UTC | Permalink | Comments (46)