There is this little exchange I had with Jeremiah here, here, here and here about Counter Insurgency (COIN) and 4th Generation warfare.
It starts with Jeremiah quoting John Robb:
… [G]iven our experience with the recent punctuated evolution of warfare, that isn't likely to last given the depth/scale of the current crisis. As we have seen in recently (from Iraq to Nigeria to Mexico), the targeting of corporations is now a fixture of modern conflict (please read). The targeting of banks would be a natural extension of this trend line given the following: …
The 4th generation warfare crowd and the COIN promoters are the same phenomenon. People who have either not read history and believe they just invented the wheel and people who have learned from history but clad it into new soundbites to sell their books.
There is nothing new with insurgencies fighting against occupiers or people going on a rampage for some political aim. There is nothing new or special in any of the tactics and counter-tactics applied by them or against them.
Robb writes: "the targeting of corporations is now a fixture of modern conflict"
The targeting of corporations has been a fixture of ALL conflicts since the . When Jesus threw the money-changers out of the temple, that terrorist was targeting his times equivalent of corporations. The terrorists who committed the Boston tea party were targeting the British East India Company. In the 70s and 80s the RAF guerrilla in Germany targeted the big banks and corporations by shooting or kidnapping the CEOs.
I have read a lot of this 4GW stuff from Robb and others and find little new in there.Technology has evolved, the numbers of humans has grown, but the methods of fighting and surviving have not changed. If you want to know about 'resilient communities', on of Robb's current themes, read up on the Thirty Years' War, look for communities that survived the rampage intact and copy their behavior. Or simply reread the short version of it in Mother Courage.
The COIN stuff is nothing new either. Pat Lang says:
COIN is a specific form of warfare developed in the 20th Century for the purpose of defeating insurgent campaigns. Political Action + Nation Building + counter-guerrilla operations would be shorthand for the method.
I agree with the definition but "developed in the 20th Century?"
What did the Romans do in Europe 2,000 years ago when insurgencies fought their occupation? Political Action + Nation Building + counter guerrilla operations.
The Romans were really good at that most of the time. They installed political and justice systems more capable and just than the existing ones. They bribed tribes to fight other tribes instead of them. They build lots of roads throughout Europe, (something Tom Ricks just somewhat "invented" as a COIN tool for Afghanistan.) They built schools and marketplaces. They did military counter-guerrilla operations, did win some and lost some quite badly.
But the Romans did understand one thing better than some folks today do. Wars must pay.
Pat Lang points out that COIN can work, but is very expensive. Anna missed puts the finger into that wound:
The COIN strategy is controversial not so much because it’s methods and objectives are suspect, but because it is so expensive, as the 5 billion per month in Iraq would attest. And it’s expensive because creating alternative new realities is expensive. Normal modes of culture, commerce, and politics need to be replaced with an entirely new set of imposed political/economic structure, rules, regulations, and checkpoints.
…
COIN works only as long as you’re willing to carry the costs of artificially maintaining the alternative reality at a sustainable level. Because as (it always will be) the COIN lock down is eventually dissembled, the host nation will usually assume their previous original disposition and demands for redress – as can be seen all over Central and South America recently. Even in supposed COIN success El Salvador, the FMLN has recently gained control of the legislature and looks forward to winning the presidency in March.COIN is not a solution, and it doesn’t win wars. At best it is a temporary holding action not unlike a prison lock down. Unless of course, keeping an occupation going indefinitely and without purpose is the objective.
Which would be an insane objective unless the occupation is profitable for the occupier.
The Romans found ways to let the countries they occupied pay for their occupation and the COIN operations needed to keep them occupied.
Not only took they money and demanded tribute and taxes. They captured people and used or sold them as slaves. There armies were filled with cheap poor folks from the Italian countryside and the slums of Rome. For quite some years that business case worked out well.
But the Roman people later lost the knack for war and the emperors had to hire expensive mercenaries into their legions. With the additional costs the business case broke apart:
The year 476 is generally accepted as the formal end of the Western Roman Empire. That year, Orestes refused the request of Germanic mercenaries in his service for lands in Italy. The dissatisfied mercenaries, led by Odoacer, revolted, and deposed the last western emperor, Romulus Augustus.
The "business case" for further occupying Iraq would have made sense if the U.S. army were cheap. But the U.S. army is the most expensive of the world and applying COIN for a longer time in Iraq is not justifiable in terms of available loot.
In the case of Afghanistan there never was a "business case" that would make any sense. There is nothing to win there and applying the most expensive type of warfare there is just a waste of money and lives.
Again – all of this is nothing new. The human motives of rebels, insurgencies and the powers that fight them have not changed. The ingenuity in the fighters on both sides has not changed either. Some technical tools have evolved and they are the reason why the fighting looks a bit different today. The involved numbers on both sides and of the people in-between those sides are now also bigger.
But at the tactical basics the fighting and the methods of fighting, occupation and survival are no different than they ever were.
All the 4thGW and COIN propagandists should read Thucydides or Caesar or Tacitus or Mao and the about fights, fighters and methods they describe. Instead they reinvent wheels or sell the old wheels the read about as new.