Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 27, 2009
On 4th GW, COIN And History

There is this little exchange I had with Jeremiah here, here, here and here about Counter Insurgency (COIN) and 4th Generation warfare.

It starts with Jeremiah quoting John Robb:

… [G]iven our experience with the recent punctuated evolution of warfare, that isn't likely to last given the depth/scale of the current crisis. As we have seen in recently (from Iraq to Nigeria to Mexico), the targeting of corporations is now a fixture of modern conflict (please read). The targeting of banks would be a natural extension of this trend line given the following: …

The 4th generation warfare crowd and the COIN promoters are the same phenomenon. People who have either not read history and believe they just invented the wheel and people who have learned from history but clad it into new soundbites to sell their books.

There is nothing new with insurgencies fighting against occupiers or people going on a rampage for some political aim. There is nothing new or special in any of the tactics and counter-tactics applied by them or against them.

Robb writes: "the targeting of corporations is now a fixture of modern conflict"

The targeting of corporations has been a fixture of ALL conflicts since the . When Jesus threw the money-changers out of the temple, that terrorist was targeting his times equivalent of corporations. The terrorists who committed the Boston tea party were targeting the British East India Company. In the 70s and 80s the RAF guerrilla in Germany targeted the big banks and corporations by shooting or kidnapping the CEOs.

I have read a lot of this 4GW stuff from Robb and others and find little new in there.Technology has evolved, the numbers of humans has grown, but the methods of fighting and surviving have not changed. If you want to know about 'resilient communities', on of Robb's current themes, read up on the Thirty Years' War, look for communities that survived the rampage intact and copy their behavior. Or simply reread the short version of it in Mother Courage.

The COIN stuff is nothing new either. Pat Lang says:

COIN is a specific form of warfare developed in the 20th Century for the purpose of defeating insurgent campaigns. Political Action + Nation Building + counter-guerrilla operations would be shorthand for the method.

I agree with the definition but "developed in the 20th Century?"

What did the Romans do in Europe 2,000 years ago when insurgencies fought their occupation? Political Action + Nation Building + counter guerrilla operations.

The Romans were really good at that most of the time. They installed political and justice systems more capable and just than the existing ones. They bribed tribes to fight other tribes instead of them. They build lots of roads throughout Europe, (something Tom Ricks just somewhat "invented" as a COIN tool for Afghanistan.) They built schools and marketplaces. They did military counter-guerrilla operations, did win some and lost some quite badly.

But the Romans did understand one thing better than some folks today do. Wars must pay.

Pat Lang points out that COIN can work, but is very expensive. Anna missed puts the finger into that wound:

The COIN strategy is controversial not so much because it’s methods and objectives are suspect, but because it is so expensive, as the 5 billion per month in Iraq would attest. And it’s expensive because creating alternative new realities is expensive. Normal modes of culture, commerce, and politics need to be replaced with an entirely new set of imposed political/economic structure, rules, regulations, and checkpoints.


COIN works only as long as you’re willing to carry the costs of artificially maintaining the alternative reality at a sustainable level. Because as (it always will be) the COIN lock down is eventually dissembled, the host nation will usually assume their previous original disposition and demands for redress – as can be seen all over Central and South America recently. Even in supposed COIN success El Salvador, the FMLN has recently gained control of the legislature and looks forward to winning the presidency in March.

COIN is not a solution, and it doesn’t win wars. At best it is a temporary holding action not unlike a prison lock down. Unless of course, keeping an occupation going indefinitely and without purpose is the objective.

Which would be an insane objective unless the occupation is profitable for the occupier.

The Romans found ways to let the countries they occupied pay for their occupation and the COIN operations needed to keep them occupied.

Not only took they money and demanded tribute and taxes. They captured people and used or sold them as slaves. There armies were filled with cheap poor folks from the Italian countryside and the slums of Rome. For quite some years that business case worked out well. 

But the Roman people later lost the knack for war and the emperors had to hire expensive mercenaries into their legions. With the additional costs the business case broke apart:

The year 476 is generally accepted as the formal end of the Western Roman Empire. That year, Orestes refused the request of Germanic mercenaries in his service for lands in Italy. The dissatisfied mercenaries, led by Odoacer, revolted, and deposed the last western emperor, Romulus Augustus.

The "business case" for further occupying Iraq would have made sense if the U.S. army were cheap. But the U.S. army is the most expensive of the world and applying COIN for a longer time in Iraq is not justifiable in terms of available loot.

In the case of Afghanistan there never was a "business case" that would make any sense. There is nothing to win there and applying the most expensive type of warfare there is just a waste of money and lives.

Again – all of this is nothing new. The human motives of rebels, insurgencies and the powers that fight them have not changed. The ingenuity in the fighters on both sides has not changed either. Some technical tools have evolved and they are the reason why the fighting looks a bit different today. The involved numbers on both sides and of the people in-between those sides are now also bigger.

But at the tactical basics the fighting and the methods of fighting, occupation and survival are no different than they ever were.

All the 4thGW and COIN propagandists should read Thucydides or Caesar or Tacitus or Mao and the about fights, fighters and methods they describe. Instead they reinvent wheels or sell the old wheels the read about as new.

Comments

This is a very cogent blog. Attrition is the death of empires, the enormous cost and eventually the fatigue of people rowing against the current. I remember that by 1805 the Spaniards were ready to grant independence to Peru, the Spanish upkeep was too expensive once the silver had been extracted. The British empire succumbed fo the same reason of fatigue and poverty, a change of direction allowed Britain to keep herself as important for a while and now we know where she is. The Soviet empire dissolved because it was too expensive for Russians to exchange petroleum for hams or salami and the Balkans were not worth the life of a single Pomeranian. In a word, decay happens because fatigue happens.

Posted by: jlcg | Feb 27 2009 20:10 utc | 1

Robb’s interesting contributions lie in the area of noticing new techniques of insurgency communication — the internet and cell phones especially — which he fancies up with computer jargon like “open source” and “distributive processing.” “Swarm” is a similar technical-sounding term, though I don’t know whether it comes from from Robb or not. In Iraq, 4GW types made much of IEDs, as if booby traps and ambushes had never been heard of before.
Perhaps the most threatening innovation in the last eight years is the suicide bomber. We in the narcissistic, scared shitless West really have no answer for that.

Posted by: seneca | Feb 27 2009 20:37 utc | 2

Indeed, Thucydides should be required reading for Presidential aspirants — in particular, the warning Pericles gave the Athenians, that once you embark on the path of war, nothing that was certain before remains so.
It is as if not only the dice are recast, but the dice themselves change shape and the numbers on them blur and change values.

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Feb 27 2009 21:05 utc | 3

#2 :
suicide bombing is XXIst century “innovation” ?? even wikipedia knows more than that :
Historical doubt surrounds the actions of legendary 14th century Swiss hero Arnold von Winkelried, which was in any case an act in the heat of battle. Some have cited Samson’s destruction of a Philistine temple (as recounted in the Book of Judges) as an ancient example of mass murder-suicide.[60]
An example is from the time of the Crusades, when the Knights Templar destroyed one of their own ships, killing 140 Christians in order to kill ten times as many Muslims.[citation needed]
In the late 17th century, Qing official Yu Yonghe recorded that injured Dutch soldiers fighting against Koxinga’s forces for control of Taiwan in 1661 would use gunpowder to blow up both themselves and their opponents rather than be taken prisoner
(…)
.”Modern suicide bombing as a political tool can be traced back to the assassination of Czar Alexander II of Russia in 1881. Alexander fell victim to a Nihilist plot. While driving on one of the central streets of Saint Petersburg, near the Winter Palace, he was mortally wounded by the explosion of hand-made grenades and died a few hours afterwards. The Tzar was killed by the Pole Ignacy Hryniewiecki, who died while intentionally exploding the bomb during the attack.”
etc
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_attack

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 27 2009 21:16 utc | 4

@seneca – Perhaps the most threatening innovation in the last eight years is the suicide bomber.
Ugg – You seem to prove my point – you really seem to need some history lessons.
Ever heard of Kamikaze? Ever checked the etymology of the word “assassine”? Ever checked the bible for people who gave up their lives for others?

Posted by: b | Feb 27 2009 21:28 utc | 5

that john robb and pat land are both just a pair of wankers. i cannot stand to read their drivel.

Posted by: those assklowns are wankers | Feb 27 2009 21:33 utc | 6

We could definitely get a lot more bang for our buck by handing over our entire military to American-loving terrorists: from the job of Commander in Chief all the way down to the jobs of gunning down the enemy. And I’m sure that many of them would think they were in hog heaven just to have three hots and a cot and a roof over their heads.

Posted by: Cynthia | Feb 27 2009 23:12 utc | 7

the Romans also provided baths and lots of lots of water

Posted by: whimsy mugwump | Feb 27 2009 23:55 utc | 8

Well, concering the Roman COIN, I’d say they had one advantage; they could butcher a third of the locals and no one else would complain. When you’ve killed so many people, the survivors tend to keep quiet. Despite massacres here and there, the US are nowhere near that level of bloodbath in their recent wars. I mean, since Rwanda, there probably hasn’t been a war which actually reduced the total population of a country – Congo and Chechnya are the only cases where we can’t really be sure. Though, for the Romans, they probably had no choice; the cost of a lighter less lethal COIN would’ve been too expensive for the empire – after all, it seems to be too expensive for the US.
One other point: I don’t think the main problem of the Roman legions was that people didn’t want to fight anymore. This has been going on since Augustus, to some extent, people being fed up of decades of civil wars. But since Marcus Aurelius, there were several cases of major epidemics, which killed a sizable part of the empire; if one third of your population just died in the last 15 years, it’s tougher to keep your army the size it was before the dieoff. This is probably a bigger reason why they ended up using mercenaries – that and the fact that, with 1/3 of your people dead, you have a lot of vacant land where an imperial power will want to put to good use for its own profit, therefore not having a serious problem with settling barbarians there.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Feb 28 2009 0:14 utc | 9

Re: suicide bombers. I didnt mean there hadn’t been any before, just that they hadn’t been used against us in an occupation role. That’s the new dimension that baffles the 4GWers — all these locals who for some reason don’t like us and aren’t intimidated by our massive fire-power and technical sophistication.
Emanuel Todd points out that the glue of empires is not just military force and the “security” it provides, but also the superior legal and cultural institutions of the center. Todd notes that America, as the modern exemplar of democratic ideals, used to have a lot of credit in the world, but has since squandered it by patently not living up to its own ideals.

Posted by: seneca | Feb 28 2009 2:05 utc | 10

The opening lines of the Art of War says something like “if the war gets protracted, the treasury can never bear the strain. If the strain becomes too great, others will spring up to take advantage.” Nearly 3000 year old wisdom, but what did he know? COIN is a 20th century invention, right?

Posted by: kao_hsien_chih | Feb 28 2009 2:35 utc | 11

Re. suicide killers — Who needs Wikipedia? For what it’s worth, a dictionary will do. From dictionary.com:
as·sas·sin (ə-sās’ĭn) Pronunciation Key
n.
1. One who murders by surprise attack, especially one who carries out a plot to kill a prominent person.
2. Assassin A member of a secret order of Muslims who terrorized and killed Christian Crusaders and others.
[French, from Medieval Latin assassīnus, from Arabic ḥaššāšīn, pl. of ḥaššāš, hashish user, from ḥašīš, hashish; see hashish.]
Word History: Active in Persia and Syria from the 8th to 14th centuries, the original Assassins were members of the Nizaris, a Muslim group who opposed the Abbasid caliphate with threats of sudden assassination by their secret agents. Other populations of the area regarded the Nizaris as unorthodox outcasts, and from this attitude came one of the names for the group, ḥaššāšīn, a word originally meaning “hashish users,” which had become a general term of abuse. Reliable sources offer no evidence of hashish use by Nizari agents, but sensationalistic stories of murderous, drug-crazed ḥaššāšīn or Assassins were widely repeated in Europe. Marco Polo tells a tale of how young Assassins were given a potion and made to yearn for paradise—their reward for dying in action—by being given a life of pleasure. As the legends spread, the word ḥaššāšīn passed through French or Italian and appeared in English as assassin in the 16th century, already with meanings like “treacherous killer.”

Posted by: oboblomov | Feb 28 2009 2:52 utc | 12

There are a couple of more irritating aspects of COIN, in addition to the nothing new vantage b points out. The most ridiculous of which is the liberal light COIN is often presented in, as a kinder gentler method of warfare. It’s as if COIN is some newfangled liberal(ly) sensitive method, whereby the utmost caution and cultural sensitivity is always undertaken to win over “the hearts and minds” of the occupied population in a selfless attempt to create “security”. And that (through these methods) when levels of violence recede (as they do under ubiqutious lock down), the population has then somehow become enlightened and accepting of the “values” of the occupation. Or at least, that they have become magically “pacified”. This of course, evades all of the important presumptions of why there is an occupation in the first place. It also evades the actual conditions on the ground, which have been radically transformed into another, suspended reality that is dependent on the culture of occupation. As difficult (and expensive) as it is to hold a population under such circumstances, it is just as difficult to remove the applied structure without creating another level of crisis in its own right. For example, all the walls built in Baghdad will have to eventually be removed (to revive normal commerce) and the manner that these are removed (or not removed) can easily be used as a tool to reward or punish either neighborhoods, sects, or business. Nevertheless, the worst part of framing COIN as a liberal means of warfare is that it is still warfare, but essentially warfare designed for use against civilian populations, as opposed to against other combatants. Nothing liberal about that.

Posted by: anna missed | Feb 28 2009 3:24 utc | 13

Sorry seneca, for the gratuitous dictionary quote.
I would take issue with Todd in one regard: We Americans have been expansionist killers from day one. One of my ancestors I’m sorry to say participated in the so called King Philip’s War, and similar ethnic cleansings and wars have followed that one every 10-30 years ever since. Nothing to be proud of.
I suspect that what good credit and respect the US has earned in the world derives from it’s power and the appearance that that power is being exercised more or less wisely. Guess we can forget about “wisely” now.
Peace, obob

Posted by: oboblomov | Feb 28 2009 3:43 utc | 14

oboblomov, i suspect that ‘good’ credit is drying up mighty fast. I suspect the bad credit and lack of respect the US has earned in the world derives from it’s power and the appearance that that power is being exercised more or less unwisely.

Posted by: annie | Feb 28 2009 4:22 utc | 15

where’s jeremiah?
crunch crunch crunch, b ate him for lunch.
whiskey!

Posted by: annie | Feb 28 2009 4:25 utc | 16

What John Robb is notable for, is saying that the nation state system we’ve grown accustomed too is in decline. He may be right or wrong but that is an important concept. It is also a concept that seems more plausible by the day.
Granted, this will not be the first time such an event took place. The world is filled with emires that rose and collapsed. But it is still new in our lifetimes.

Posted by: Lysander | Feb 28 2009 4:39 utc | 17

The trend towards the use of a term like “4GW” springs from the same font that gave us the word “terrorists”.
Honestly, i can remember — vaguely — a time when “terrorist” was simply a word that described a form of warfare that might be and has been used at any time, by any opponent, for any of a multitude of reasons.
The Reagan era is when all that started to change, and it wasn’t until the mid-nineties — some 15 years or so after Reagan’s “ascension” — that the usage finally stuck. It turned the word from “one tactic out of many possible ones”, into “someone who uses a form of war that we think is inhumane.”
Now, that’s really the sticking point, here: when the fuck has the United States * ever * practiced a “humane” form of warfare? Or even aspired to it?
The Indian wars were noted for the vast disparity of firepower between the native Americans and the U.S. military forces. The Revolutionary War was noteworthy, in European history, for being a full-bore rejection of the “Rules of War” that had been developed on the European continent — rules that were specifically put in place to protect civilian populations (or at least, the wealthy ones) from military players. The War of 1812 was used as the justification for one of the largest acts of ethnic cleansing, ever (the Trail of Tears). There’s the Civil War; the Spanish-Ameican War, and particularly the Conquest of the Philippines; skipping past the WW’s (where carpet-bombing was adapted from the “total warfare” model first adopted by the U.S. and Great Britain), we get to the atrocities perpetrated in Korea, and Vietnam. And of course, the cycle is continuing today.
The usage of the word “terrorist” in the media today is so blandly overbroad and meaningless that, effectively, it means “our enemies”, in the sense of “our enemies, who aren’t as human as we are and so must be exterminated, along with anyone who supports such demonic horrors.” The more articulate of commentators are able to refine that, but not by much: “Our enemies, who fight with no regard for Human values.”
So now we’re on to “4GW” and COIN. As was published in The Nation a while back, COIN is suspiciously close to “Colonialism from the barrel of a Gun”. I’d suggest that “4GW” is really nothing more than a re-branding of what was once called “The Cold War.”
The Cold War involved proxy wars fought in foreign lands between technological and economic powerhouses, each one backing local warrior-cliques with weaponry and materiel that the native culture in question could not, itself, sustain.
4GW is simply a re-packaging of that idea: war by proxy, but this time with cybernetic weapons systems forming a major part of the “boots on the ground.” Specialist units trained to be dropped in to foreign countries, where they will establish solid satellite and information links with the “home-base” from which they can command and control local forces, while supplementing those forces with technology and materiel that the local culture couldn’t possibly support on its own.
And who will they be fighting?
Well, if the Afghanis are going to continue fighting the U.S, then they’ll need to get their weapons from somewhere.
That “somewhere” would be China or Russia.
Extrapolation from there is simple: If China’s supplying Iran and Afghanistan with weaponry, then they’re our enemy. We should be at war with them, but they have nukes and form a major part of our economic bedrock, so we can’t simply declare war and invade. So instead, we fight a secret proxy-war — this time with satellites, robots, adaptive armor, and bio-tech — and try to drive them out of those lands we designate as “ours”.
So really, 4GW is just the Silicon Valley (or Austin, Texas) version of “21st C. Cold War”.
Sad as it is, we probably will not be parting with it any time soon. It was just this sort of moron who fucked up the post-WWII prosperity with such fetes as Vietnam, the Nicaraguan Contras, and Ann Coulter, and they have always made it quite clear that they’re content to drag us all down into whatever hole we provide them.
The only way out is for the good people to go on their own witch-hunt — which is an oxymoron, of course, so i guess we’re all doomed.

Posted by: china_hand2 | Feb 28 2009 4:52 utc | 18

china_hand2 you are right.

Posted by: outsider | Feb 28 2009 6:57 utc | 19

I suspect that what good credit and respect the US has earned in the world derives from it’s power and the appearance that that power is being exercised more or less wisely. Guess we can forget about “wisely” now.
– oboblomov
I think america’s good credit and respect came from the fact america had been created by people from all nations on earth, kind of a strange ethnic zoo, with citizens from all nations on display. Most people are smart enough not to shit where they live. Kind of why 9/11 took everyone by surprise I think.
The only thing new in warfare is weapons systems; the outcome still depends on who controls the battlefield.

Posted by: David | Feb 28 2009 13:55 utc | 20

Nevertheless, the worst part of framing COIN as a liberal means of warfare is that it is still warfare, but essentially warfare designed for use against civilian populations, as opposed to against other combatants. Nothing liberal about that.
anna missed – what a perfect definition of what is at heart so wrong about this COIN fad.
and b – wonderful post.

Posted by: Siun | Feb 28 2009 17:35 utc | 21

i was just following uncle’s wikilinks on the billmon thread. some very interesting info re coin.
from the analysis by David Price, a member of the Network of Concerned Anthropologists.

The report’s residual image is of a pelagic military only beginning to become aware of the depths of their own ignorance of the complex environment they are attempting to occupy and dominate. Even at this early stage the Army had reasons to know it was in over its head.

Obviously, the limited scope of this 2004 Center for Army Lessons Learned report precludes addressing fundamental issues raised by the Bush administration’s reliance on false pretenses to illegally invade Iraq. Such issues are not among those included with the designated “Lessons Learned”-because at this level, the army follows rather than sets policy. But the same cannot be said for the free-agent anthropologists and other social scientists who are not part of the military and are now working as contractors on Human Terrain Teams “leveraging” culture in service of the military occupation of Iraq. These individuals willfully choose to ignore the ethical alarms being sounded by their peers as they voluntarily surrender their disciplinary skills to better “leverage” cultural “assets” for whatever ends the military dictates.
Given the problems identified in this 2004 report, it makes sense that the army would strive for a more culturally nuanced occupation; after all, it is the nature of occupying armies to seek to subjugate and occupy nations (legally, or illegally) with as little trouble as can be arranged. But anthropology’s abetment of this cause slides it askew from any central ethical principles of the field, and it reveals something of the lesser demons of the field’s nature. Granted, anthropology’s past has plenty of shameful instances of anthropologists applying their skills to leverage occupied peoples in colonial and neocolonial settings, but the common contemporary understanding that such manipulative leverages are part of a shameful past does not influence those seeking their fortune outside the ethical standards of their discipline’s mainstream.
I do like the notion of a “Center for Army Lessons Learned,” but the existence of such a center controlled by the army dooms any prospect that the learned lessons might ever be anything beyond minor tactical or technological adjustments. There is no hope of learning more important lessons about not becoming mired in imperial quagmires or unjust wars. I suppose if one were to conjure a Center for Anthropological Lessons Learned, its central findings might include admonitions to not betray or “leverage” the people one studies and lives amongst.
Although those who directing the war appear to have discovered ways to use anthropology to more efficiently achieve their goals, they don’t care that anthropology becomes what it is used for. As a member of my anthropological moiety, Kurt Vonnegut, once noted, “Shrapnel was invented by an Englishman of the same name. Don’t you wish you could have something named after you?”

Posted by: annie | Feb 28 2009 18:06 utc | 22

b, thank you.
I’d never interpreted Robb as a peddler of COIN, per se, more that he was just explaining what it was in current terms… in his lexicon. I also think a lot of his writing was dedicated to exposing what he perceived as major flaws in much of the U.S.’s COIN doctrines.
I very much appreciate your longer view of history, but when I see sentences like this:

Technology has evolved, the numbers of humans has grown, but the methods of fighting and surviving have not changed.

…I think you’re missing the point.
I get the sense authors like Robb are more interested in thinking through more immediate implications of that changing technology, and trying to imagine what it’s consequences might be for our day to day lives. Personally, I find these kind of analysis to be a little more interesting and relevant than “the long view” which sounds suspiciously like “nothing new under the sun.”
Do you want me to stop quoting him on MoA? Would he be welcome to post a reaction here?

Posted by: Jeremiah | Mar 1 2009 19:48 utc | 23

“COIN” is a misnomer when applied to foreign military forces. The US military was the insurgent force in both Iraq and Afghanistan. That is, a force which overthrew the existing legitimate governments. The Iraqis and Afghans who fought the subsequent US military occupying forces were the true counter-insurgents.
from the DOD Dictionary: insurgency — An organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict.
Now one might say that this is only semantics, but in that case one would not understand that fighting foreign insurgents is a universal human condition.
Let’s suppose that the Chinese Army invaded the US in the last decade, overthrew the hated George W. Bush and established a brutal military occupation. Wouldn’t there be an armed resistance to the Chinese occupiers? Of course there would. Bush would be nothing compared to the Chinese. Some people would simply hide under their beds, but many would take up arms against the foreigners. Would these patriots be called insurgents, and the Chinese counter-insurgents? Of course not. That’s silly, just like this whole COIN/Petraeus stuff is silly on the face of it — because the definitions are wrong and they don’t reflect the human condition.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 1 2009 20:25 utc | 24

Do you want me to stop quoting him on MoA?
Certainly NOT – quote whoever you want but grand me the right to criticize it when I think its wrong.
Would he be welcome to post a reaction here?
Sure – he commented here before. I referred to him quite a lot in older posts here.
But as longer I have thought about these issues the more I found him hyping just technological changes that do not really change the deeper core of humanity.
Are those technological changes important? Yes. Are they something really new? No. Gunpowder changed the way of fighting too – but it did not change the reasons why wars are waged, lost or won. Facebook will not achieve that either.
Robb also misses the points of real danger by hyping ‘terrorism’.
For example this Amazon text of his book Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization, published April 2007, says:

The counterterrorism expert John Robb reveals how the same technology that has enabled globalization also allows terrorists and criminals to join forces against larger adversaries with relative ease and to carry out small, inexpensive actions—like sabotaging an oil pipeline—that generate a huge return. He shows how combating the shutdown of the world’s oil, high-tech, and financial markets could cost us the thing we’ve come to value the most—worldwide economic and cultural integration—and what we must do now to safeguard against this new method of warfare.

Anybody can sabotage an oil pipeline with ease since the first oil pipeline was laid – nothing new in that.
Robb expected ‘terrorists’ to screw up the oil-markets and the financial markets and to end globalization.
Turns that Wall Street was the party that did that, not some ‘terrorist’ taking on a larger adversary. And yes it was obvious in 2007 and much earlier that this would happen – Billmon wrote a lot about that as did I.
It seems to me that Robb had (and still has) the focus on the wrong group of people and issues.
He explains trends that are obvious – open source stuff (guess how gunpowder proliferated) – and solutions that are obvious – local resilience (30 years’ war).
He sells books – fine for him.

Posted by: b | Mar 1 2009 20:33 utc | 25

Concord Hymn (one stanza):
By the rude bridge that arched the flood,
Their flag to April’s breeze unfurled,
Here once the embattled farmers stood,
And fired the shot heard round the world.
–Ralph Waldo Emerson
A new method of warfare? As b pointed out, even those actions of the embattled farmers over two hudred years ago were surely not a new phenomenon. There were many shots heard before that, often against foreign military occupations designed to promote and protect empires, and there will be many more.
And some will call the empire’s reaction “COIN” — goody for them. I say throw that particular coin in the fountain of ignorance.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Mar 1 2009 21:10 utc | 26

@b: Certainly NOT – quote whoever you want but grand me the right to criticize it when I think its wrong.
Absolutely. ::raises toast::
Incidentally, I was surprised by annie’s post – I related to this as a discussion, not an argument, and I interpreted b’s frontpaging of it as a summary of his perspective instead of some kind of skullbashing. Was I wrong?

Posted by: Jeremiah | Mar 1 2009 22:15 utc | 27

How did John Robb get into the discussion? Seems to me Bill Lind is the central figure defining theoretical 4th generation warfare, generally as an evolution away from wars between nation states, and then wars designed to hollow out nation states. I think theoretically that there is some substance to to this, in that post WWII large nation states have been unable to engage directly (because of MAD) and so have instead moved into either proxy or wars of occupation. Historically, there is good reason to see this as a genuine “evolution” away from one paradigm and into another. Not that there is necessarily anything new, but rather that there has been a shift in the possibilities. The whole COIN industry (of which Robb is an actor) is an attempt to flesh out the details as a matter of adapting to the new paradigm, as a shift in emphasis and possibilities.

Posted by: anna missed | Mar 1 2009 22:59 utc | 28

I find quite a bit of value in John Robb’s work. I think we have different interpretations of Robb’s work though. A lot of folks in the COIN space promote COIN theory as an operational theory of war, similar to the Effects Based Operations or Rapid Decisive Operations, which is a traditional military way of thinking. While some of these scholars and researchers may offer intellectual content to the small war space, I’m not convinced that group is making significant improvement towards the development of strategy.
I think the value of Robb’s work is that he conceptualizes and contextualizes the threat environment, which assists by framing debates on ways and means of strategy. It is a subtle distinction, but in the DoD lexicon soup the distinction is very important for framing problems and solutions.
I think your opinion could have been applied to a number of COIN enthusiast, but I don’t believe John Robb is a good fit towards your main point.

Posted by: Galrahn | Mar 5 2009 4:15 utc | 29