In August the Georgian president Saakashvili ordered an attack on the renegade South Ossetia and Russian peacekeepers there. He did not expected the obvious Russian answer that routed his forces within days. He did expect U.S. support which did not come. South Ossetia and another province, Abkhasia, then declared themselves independent.
But Saakashvili has not given up on them and there are signs that he is preparing for a new immediate attempt to regain South Ossetia or at least launch a provocation.
Thanks to Bush he may well again believe that he now really has U.S. support for that. But Bush will soon be gone, so maybe now is the right time to do … something.
The opposition in Georgia is demanding new elections, the economy is in trouble and government changes are critizised:
[S]uccessive cabinet reshuffles have left unscathed powerful Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili, whom Subari has implicitly accused of presiding over a death squad that operates outside the law. And Bacho Akhalaya, a Merabishvili protege who is believed to have provoked a prison riot in March 2006 by his sadistic treatment of prison inmates, has been promoted to deputy defense minister.
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[O]n December 23, Saakashvili assured the Georgian population that the country is on the road to recovery, and that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will "be liberated far sooner than people think."
"Far sooner" …
In late December a Georgian parliamentary commission whitewashed Saakashvili's of his responsibility for the August conflict. That does give him some space in interior politics.
Bush gave him additional strong backing with a Charter on Strategic Partnership between Georgia and the U.S.:
Saakashvili has hailed the US-Georgia treaty as a "historic" move that will allow the two countries' relations to progress towards a new stage.
"The United States has never before said that Georgia is its strategic partner," he said on December 22.
The signing was supposed to take place on January 4 but that was moved to today:
Georgian Foreign Minister, Grigol Vashadze, and U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, signed on January 9 in Washington a charter on strategic partnership between the two countries.
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“The U.S. supports and will always support Georgia’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity, as well as its Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” [Rice] continued. “
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“This is a historic day for my country,” Vashadze said. “The Charter… strengthens close strategic partnership between Georgia and the United States and stresses that countries, undersigning this legal instrument, share vital interests in strong, prosperous, independent, sovereign, territorially integral Georgia. …”
The treaty is controversial in Georgia as its content has up to now not been released.
According to an opposition party Saakashvili is also having talks with the U.S. about a military base in Georgia.
Now notice the dates. The agreement was supposed to be signed on January 4. Also on January 4 the Abchazian government reported movement of Georgian troops at its borders. Georgia denied such.
Late December there were reports of movement near South Ossetia:
Tbilisi has [..] deployed tanks and Cobra armored vehicles near the South Ossetian border, the locals warned later [on December 29].
On January 6 South Ossetia raised again alarm:
South Ossetia Press Ministry warns that Georgia and foreign advisors are planning a large-scale operation in South Ossetia
The South Ossetian Press and Social Communication Ministry declared on Monday that a major offensive is being planned by Georgian and foreign forces to strike at Russian servicemen in South Ossetia and this Republic´s security, defence and law enforcement authorities.
Then Saakashvili again:
Speaking with journalists on January 7, after attending an Orthodox Christmas mass in the Holy Trinity Cathedral in Tbilisi, Saakashvili said: “The Patriarch [Ilia II] spoke on two important issues – the one is that Georgia, the Georgian people want peace, but not at the expense of giving up of our territories – this is a very important, fundamental concept, which is a foundation of our national policy.”
The Defense Ministry of South Ossetia said Friday Georgia was moving troops towards its border, the republic's information and press committee said.
The committee cited South Ossetian Deputy Defense Minister Ibragim Gasseyev as saying that four Georgian armored vehicles and 16 trucks had approached the village of Mereti, Gori district.
"Considering that each vehicle has at least 20 people, Georgia has moved at least 300 people to Mereti," Gasseyev said.
With a new 'strategic agreement' backing him and the immediate problem of the commission report behind, Saakashvili seems to get adventures again.
There is one slight problem with a new war but even that might be an advantage. It is winter.
Gazprom supplies Georgia with gas from Russia, but Georgia seems to be unwilling to forward some of that gas to South Ossetia as it is supposed to. If Saakashvili tries something nasty, Gazprom might well have 'technical problems' supplying Georgia.
On the other side winter closes the tunnel between South Ossetia and Russia. That tunnel is the only route for possible re-enforcement of Russian troops in South Ossetia and the open tunnel was the reason why Saakashvili lost his little war back in August. A blocking force on the border to Abkhasia could prevent re-enforcement by that route. A U.S. Navy frigate just visited Poti and likely still in the Black Sea ready to stand by.
Also now Bush is still there. Action within the next few days would get at least rhetorical backing from him.
So will Saakashvili now give it another try just before Bush is gone?