World War I began over a minor assassination in Sarajevo. A big war in Asia may begin over the recent terror act in Mumbai.
There are several plausible culprits for these acts.
Radicalized Indian Muslims are a possible group. Some Pakistani group could be responsible, with or without unofficial support from some shady secret agency. I speculated about a false flag operation by the Indian right.
Now the Indian government demands that Pakistan hands over some 20 people which are sought in India:
"Now, we have in our demarche asked (for) the arrest and handover of those persons who are settled in Pakistan and who are fugitives of Indian law," External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on the sidelines of a function to inaugurate the India-Arab Forum.
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Islamabad has been in a denial mode but India says it has hard evidence to show Pakistani link.New Delhi’s outrage was voiced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who said India will not tolerate use of territories by its neighbours for launching attacks in this country and that there will be a "cost" to it.
The centrist Indian government is under pressure. The rightwing BJP is threatening to win the ongoing (they take several month) elections over the issue.
The demand for those 20 people, which the Pakistani government is unlikely able to fulfill, is an escalation step. More will follow.
The Indians allege that the captured terrorist is one Ajmal Amir Kamal from Faridkot in Pakistan. But a man of that name is unknown there:
Shown a picture of the alleged militant, Daha said: "That’s a smart-looking boy. We don’t have that sort around here."
So far we have no public evidence of any Pakistani involvement. Only Indian ‘senior intelligence officials’ leaking this or that factoid which may be correct or not. That is certainly not the case yet to start a war over, but these things get out of control fast.
The Bush administration is stocking the fire by demanding ‘complete, absolute, total transparency and cooperation’ from Pakistan and leaking to the NYT about some interdicted phone-calls:
According to senior American government officials, satellite intercepts of telephone calls made during the siege directly linked the attackers in Mumbai to operatives in Pakistan working for Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant Islamist group accused of carrying out terrorist attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir and elsewhere.
What does ‘directly linked’ mean? And who called whom?
Even while Obama cautioned against immediate action, some people in India read his words as ‘tacit endorsement’ of possible Indian bombing in Pakistan.
The neocon Washington Post editors certainly give their tacid endorsement:
India, which has the ability to strike terrorist targets in Pakistan, is rightly demanding an end to the threat — and it’s getting harder and harder for Washington to counsel patience.
Maybe it is getting harder for Washington because the WaPo editors have Robert Kagan rejecting Pakistan’s sovereignty on just the same page:
Rather than simply begging the Indians to show restraint, a better option could be to internationalize the response. Have the international community declare that parts of Pakistan have become ungovernable and a menace to international security. Establish an international force to work with the Pakistanis to root out terrorist camps in Kashmir as well as in the tribal areas.
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Would such an action violate Pakistan’s sovereignty? Yes, but nations should not be able to claim sovereign rights when they cannot control territory from which terrorist attacks are launched.
Then why wasn’t Germany bombed when Mohamed Atta came from there?
Such a great idea: Have some international force (from where?) pick a fight with 160 million nationalists in nuclear armed Pakistan. And make no mistake, all Pakistani would fight back.
Local Taliban groups in western Pakistan offered a truce in case the Pakistani army needs to defend against India:
Spokesman of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat, Haji Muslim Khan, in a statement, said that in case of Indian aggression against Pakistan all the components of the Tehrik including Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat, will follow the decision of Tehrik-e-Taliban. He said if the ongoing operation against Taliban is stopped they will fight the enemy along with the Pakistan army.
Throughout the weekend and yesterday there was fighting with over 30 dead between ethnic groups (mafia clans?) in Karachi, the Pakistani harbor city through which most of the supply for the ‘western’ troops in Afghanistan runs. That traffic from Karachi was blocked. Additionally 22 NATO supply trucks were burned in an attack in Peshawar.
What does Kagan believe will happen to the supply of the troops in Afghanistan when some foreigners start all out war in Pakistan?
To increase the temperature on Pakistan is the worst thing that can be done right now.
Unfortunately, lots of people seem to want to do just that.