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The WMD Terror Report Is Crap
The Congress Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism published a report titled The World At Risk.
Google News has some 770 links to news item referring it.
The scaremongering headlines say WMD strike ‘likely’ in five years and Nuclear, biological terror attack ‘likely’: US commission.
Indeed the very first graph of the executive summary reads:
The Commission believes that unless the world community acts decisively
and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of
mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the
world by the end of 2013.
"More likely than not" is a chance bigger than 50%.
But nowhere in the report is there any assessment of likelihood.
The 132 pages include not one paragraph or line which makes a calculation, quantitative or qualitative, that would allow one to come to the conclusion that the executive summary asserts.
The assessment of the commission is that some terrorists would rather try to use biological weapons than nuclear stuff. It also assesses that the capacity to make WMD would require a terrorist group to hire, or win over, specialists in that field.
But there is no assessment at all on how big the chance is that some terrorist would try that or why this would be more likely than not to happen.
Essentially the first line of the report is simply crap that is not supported by anything that follows. It makes for scaremongering headlines as the media, like usual, do not care to really look into these issues.
Decent security experts like Bruce Schneider disagree that the WMD likelihood is big. As he remarks on the Mumbai attacks:
Low-tech is very effective. Movie-plot threats — terrorists with crop dusters, terrorists with biological agents, terrorists targeting our water supplies — might be what people worry about, but a bunch of trained (…) men with guns and grenades is all they needed.
If the simple and cheap stuff works well to terrorize, why then would anyone who wants to terrorize a bunch of people put a huge effort into some WMD stuff?
And how then can anyone come to the conclusion that the likelihood of such a WMD terrorist attack is above 50%?
It is simply irresponsible scaremongering to assert such. But obviously, scaremongering sells.
Road Construction work launched in Arghandab
Kandahar Surgar: Kandahar Rural Development department officials say a two kilometer road construction project in Arghandab district has been launched by the Japanese government. The road stretches 1753 m from the shrine of Baba Sahib to the village of Tabin in Arghandab district, according to the rural development departments head Engineer, Abul Latif Ashna.
The new construction work was inaugurated by the Kandahar governor, and will be completed in approximately 135 days with a project cost of 426000 USD, Mr. Ashna added, saying the construction responsibility has been handed to a trusted construction corporation which has the capacity to complete the work with quality.
In fulfilling people’s demands, Mr. Ashna hoped the newly begun road project will ease many peoples’ lives. The rural development head said many other projects are under way, which are expected to be completed in the near future. Mr. Ashna added to his comments to Surgar Weekly, saying he will deliver food supplies to southern districts outside Kandahar, ahead of the upcoming winter.
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UNICEF: More violence towards Afghan children
Kabul Surgar: The violation of Afghan children’s rights and even child sexual abuse are growing concerns, United Nations Children Emergency Fund said in its recent reports. It has been four years since Afghanistan has signed the international children rights agreement, but still attacks continue on students, children are obliged to do heavy jobs, children are recruited in military operations, sexual assaults and many other child violence-related issues are on the rise, the reports said.
The report was a collection of different data, and talked about an alleged 12 year kid who was going to carry out a suicide attack, while pointing out the thirty innocent children who lost their lives in the indiscriminate coalition forces air raids. While expressing worries over increasing child sexual abuse and enslavement, similar UN reports were publicized last year.
Analysts believe Afghanistan’s rising violence and economical downturn are reasons children have no access to education and are obliged to work to survive just like adults. Despite the claims of many funding organizations that they have made endless attempts to make the lives of Afghan children better and safer, the increasing level of violence shows they have failed to meet their criterion.
Jamil, a poor kid who looks tired and has along face, was washing a customer’s car to earn money to meet his family’s daily life’s needs when he told Surgar weekly he has a deep interest in going to school, if he is provided with that golden opportunity. The distressed boy spoke in a thin sorrowful voice as he urged the Afghan government and international communities to help children like him by providing the opportunity to get an education, instead of slipping into the endless cycle of indentured servitude.
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Khalili: Help prevent a human catastrophe
Kabul Surgar: While considering the nationwide food supplies shortage a matter of utmost seriousness, the second Afghan vice president Mohammad Karim Khalili said if the international communities failed to provide help in order to avoid a disaster of unprecedented magnitude, there is high possibility that six million Afghans will facing famine in the upcoming winter, leading to the starvation of thousands.
Khalili, spoke at a conference in Kabul on November 23rd, saying hunger is a more important issue than what the international community’s considers it. Famine is related to poppy growth for cash instead of grain production, due to the insecurity in the country. If famine is prevented, both the poppy growth and insecurity will be reduced as well, Mr. Khalili said. He urged the international funding communities to fight the famine by granting emergency food relief in order to save thousands of Afghan lives.
Chris Alexander, a United Nations staffer, also criticized international communities for not providing enough food. The UN has warned before that unless people who live in far remote areas of the country are provided food now, that millions of Afghans may face possible famine, even as the winter begins.
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6 policemen publicly tried in local court
Kandahar Surgar: The Kandahar province judicial military court has put 6 policemen on trial who were alleged to have lost an Afghan National Army “ranger” vehicle to militants. On November 22nd, one of the prosecuting attorneys announcing the cases said the six policemen allegedly drove up from Panjwaye district to Kandahar city to buy fire wood, but upon their return back to the district, they took a dirt road leading to a sandy area of the city. According to the attorney, the policemen allegedly took the dirt road due to a disagreement, when the police car got stuck in sand, which lead them to flee.
Taking benefit of the opportunity, militants took the police vehicle without facing any resistance.
In order to save our younger friends, we took the sub road, the police chief, Ahmad Shah, testified. The judge and the military court head, General Mohammad Yusaf Safi, found Ahmad Shah guilty and imprisoned him for 12 years, ordering him to pay back the government 28000 USD; the vehicle’s cost.
Four of the other policemen tried were imprisoned, each with a four year sentence. A young police cadet who was under 18 was released due to his youth. The six policemen had the right to defend themselves and their defending attorneys made an effort to defend their actions, but to no avail.
Kandahar residents welcome public trials and the capture of criminals by the military district attorney’s office, urging the court to arrest those police commanders who are accused of crimes.
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Japan Faces Deep Recession, Central Banks Cut Rates
Reuters | 03 Dec 2008 | 09:40 PM ET: Japan may be in a deeper recession than first thought as businesses cut spending because of the worsening global recession, which will likely force central banks in Britain and Europe to slash interest rates later on Thursday. Rates are at historical lows, with Japan’s lending rate essentially zero, and the US lending rate at only one per-cent.
China pledged to support U.S. efforts to stabilize financial markets, even as Chinese currency devalues, and said its biggest contribution to the cause is its pursuit of fast, stable growth in the face of what some economists believe is the sharpest global economic slowdown since World War Two.
Japanese companies cut investment in the third quarter by a higher-than-expected 13 percent from a year ago, a report showed, leading economists to expect gross domestic product data, which initially already showed contraction, will be adjusted lower.
“With the decline in capital spending this big, it’s likely that third-quarter gross domestic product will be revised down,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist with Barclays Capital. “There’s a growing chance that Japan’s economy will remain in recession until the second quarter of next year.”
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500 chefs, 4,000 lobsters and Kylie – recession Dubai style
The Guardian, Friday November 21 2008: The real world rarely intrudes on the artificial playground of Dubai. And last night, the global financial collapse seemed far behind as one of the most outlandish architectural extravagances of recent times opened with a £15m celebration in the company of A-list stars and a feast of 4,000 lobsters.
For the 2,000 guests, it was a heady cocktail of sunshine and as much champagne and oysters as they could wish for. Kylie Minogue was given her very own fiscal stimulus, a £2m cheque to perform at the party thrown by South African tycoon Sol Kerzner, 73, to launch the Atlantis Palm Jumeirah hotel.
Four Michelin-starred chefs masterminded the food, helped by 500 sous chefs and 1,000 waiters. To accompany Minogue’s performance, Kerzner laid on a £3m firework show, said to be seven times grander than that which marked the opening of the Beijing Olympics. Among the guests were Robert de Niro, Janet Jackson, Wesley Snipes, Michael Jordan, Charlize Theron, Mischa Barton, and Agyness Deyn. Sir Philip Green, Dame Shirley Bassey, Yasmin Le Bon, Jade Jagger, Lily Allen and Lindsay Lohan also joined the celebrations.
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Won’t you see it in your heart to send just $100 to prevent famine in Afghanistan this winter?
Posted by: Shah Loam | Dec 4 2008 5:52 utc | 23
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