by Debs is Dead
lifted from a comment
Going on from what Giap wrote about State actors in many large
‘terrorist’ operations, it seems from where I sit that the states most
likely to benefit from the action in Mumbai are USuk/BJPIndia/Israel.
The prez elect of America has given a firm commitment to move troops
from Iraq where he imagines they are no longer needed, to Afghanistan
where they are required, he claims. The problem is that the people
America has declared war on the Pashtu, are spread across two nation
states so war in Afghanistan of itself cannot truly subjugate these
people and turn them away from the ancient culture into dumbed down
consumerists.
Therefore USuk must wage war against those Pashtu who
live in Pakistan as well but the Pakistani government stands ready and
willing to do that themselves, repeatedly advising USuk that their
presence on Pakistan soil is not required, not wanted and certainly not
gonna be tolerated.
That dichotomy of belligerence could have worked with the BushCo
administration who had no interest in the Pashtu other than shooting or
bombing any head which appeared over the parapet, but Obama appears to
want more.
As I said the total subjugation of the Pashtu seems to be the
primary aim of the new American administration. Obama and his crew of
washed up dem party hacks (on sale now – two wars for the price of one
– highest bid not necessarily accepted – must check with AIPAC) have
spoken about the need to take the war into Pakistan.
As shanks pointed out above if India moves all it’s forces up to the
Pakistani border, Pakistan will have no choice other than to respond by
moving the bulk of it’s forces down to the India/Pakistan border. If
they don’t India will almost certainly launch so called ‘punitive
raids’ into Pakistan killing Pakistani citizens.
So the Pakistani military war against the Pashtu will stop for the
time being and that will create the perfect excuse for USuk to invade
Pakistan from the north.
It will be presented to western eyes much as shanks is trying to
present it comments here. That Pakistan would have some sort of a choice in
whether or not they went eyeball to eyeball with the Indian forces on
their Southern border. There could be no choice, if Pakistan fails to
man their southern border sufficiently India who as one can see here
is forever getting into boundary disputes with it’s neighbours, will at
the very least re-kindle one of the many border disputes between the
two nations claiming back some territory that they have previously
agreed was Pakistan.
More likely the new BJP controlled government will decide Pakistan
needs to be ‘punished’ for Mumbai. Read some of the comments in the
piece shanks linked to and you will see a thirst for blood on the part
of the usual loons, rednecks and crazies that every country has and
which the BJP panders to.
If India mans up it’s border, Pakistan must do the same in which
case Obama will have the perfect excuse (in his eyes and the eyes of
the somnolent American people) to invade Pakistan.
If war is like chess and this particular conflict is playing out
like a chess match, I would be interested to see what strategy Pakistan
could construct where the Mumbai attacks were instigated by them and
they benefited from the attacks.
I can’t think of one maybe someone else can.
There may be several intermediate steps in the invasion of Pakistan
which I outlined above. The Pakistan strategists aren’t fools and they
may be persuaded to try to spread their forces between the NW frontier
and the Indian border. Or even attempt a counter strategy of not
fronting down South.
If they don’t go South or even split their forces to cover both
fronts, you can be sure that India will be receiving ‘advice’ from it’s
new ally amerika, to initiate some conflict, perhaps to settle the
Kashmir ‘problem once and for all, by moving the border further into
Pakistan thereby cutting off the ‘terror supply line’.
If Pakistani forces do move South as conventional strategy suggests
they will have to since the danger to the Pakistani state from an
Indian invasion is far worse than anything the Pashtu who are basically
just reacting to provocation, could cook up, then we can be sure that
American special forces plus drones, will provoke the Pakistani Pashtu.
They will probably react, of course understanding the danger they may
be disciplined enough not to do anything at first, but the provocations
with be ramped up until the the Pashtu do hit back. Whereupon USuk have
the ‘excuse’ to invade. Game over.
