Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 7, 2008
Doubleplusungood Economy News

A hefty unemployment report was released to day by the Labor Department:

Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  October’s drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, as revised.

The headline number is the U3 measurement of unemployment which not very inclusive. The realistic number measured as U6 includes "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers" is at a seasonal adjusted 11.8%.

Average hours of those employed are down while seasonal and inflation adjusted hourly wages are up a bit.

Notice that the original number for September 2008 was a drop of 159,000. It was now revised to 284,000. The original August number was a drop of 84,000, now revised to 127,000. The October number published today will likely need a huge correction.

On October 27 the Dow was at a low of 8,175. It rallied from there to 9,625 on November 4. Since then it is down to 8,800 and I expect it to at least retest the 2002 low of 7,528. It could go down much lower though because current earning expectations are still much too high.

Comments

The day the unemployment news comes out, the US stock market rallies. They will say the bad news was already discounted in the market. But the truth is, capital likes high unemployment, because it depresses wages. For some sectors of capital, like retail, unemployment is not good news, but overall capital always likes a hungry and divided workforce.

Posted by: seneca | Nov 7 2008 16:01 utc | 1

In the spirit of trying out some tentative post-electoral optimism, I’m sympathetic to Hussman’s argument that a couple years of ruin and destitution won’t hurt the discounted value of corporate cashflows all that much (counterintuitive, if true, as the risk free rate declined but spreads blew out, boosting investment hurdle rates and weighting near term returns).

Posted by: …—… | Nov 7 2008 16:16 utc | 2

seneca,
your analysis is perfectly in keeping with the Free Market ideology that people are there to serve the markets, instead of the liberal notion that markets are there to serve people…
And what is more important to our society in the long run: the prosperity and well-being of its workforce or the size of the bonuses we pay our executives?

Posted by: ralphieboy | Nov 7 2008 16:39 utc | 3

Here is a somewhat OT question for Mr.B.
Yesterday I noticed that ALL of Bloomberg’s numbers were red, that is, price of everything went down. Now we all know that has been the dominant trend lately, with a few green days scattered in between losses. Even gold and silver are trending downward too, albeit at a slower rate.
Here’s the question: This looks to me like deflation, combined with a market crash. Goods don’t sell cos money movement is stagnated; that is (part of) the market problem. Commodities don’t sell for the same reason, and their prices drop. Now, if my dollar can buy more corn from the silo, isn’t the dollar worth more?
Yes I see that retail prices have remained high or are rising, especially for food, but I would expect most manufacturers and retailers to lower prices soon to move more goods. Deflation, no?
It has been predicted that after a (fairly short) period of deflation this winter, that whole-hog printing of cash will cause “hyperinflation” later. Do you have a take on the likelihood of this scenario b?

Posted by: rapt | Nov 7 2008 17:12 utc | 4

@rapt – This looks to me like deflation, combined with a market crash.
1. There are various economic concepts of what inflation actually is.
Most people think inflation is when prices go up. Serious economists argue that’s bull, because prices go up because the money supply expands. Therefore money supply expansion is the real inflation, money supply contraction is deflation. I find the later concept much better.
But lets for a moment stick to the inflation=prices-up concept which you seem to think of.
Have you ever heard someone bother about asset-inflation? I do not remember to have heard or read “Stock prices are rising too high!” So when stock prices go down, how is that supposed to be deflation?
The U.S. inflation statistics by BEA does not count house value but owners’ equivalent rent to measure inflation. While house prices went up, official inflation rates didn’t. Now that house prices are falling while rents are stable, we are supposed to count that as deflation?
2. the inflation/deflation discussion is always getting abused for manipulation.
When in 2003 inflation was low and fine, Greenspan started a “we fear deflation” horror show while daily costs of living were still going up. It allowed him to lower interest rates to 1% and to keep them there for over a year. Result: a housing, banking and commodity bubble that later broke down under its own weight.
Bernanke expands that as he is arguing for printing more money (his “helicopter” paper: “Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here”)
The “deflation” scare is used as an argument to increase inflation. Which is good when you have debt that gets inflated away, but bad when you have to live on fixed income or a normal job.
Guess what overleveraged banks who made big losses like better.
Real deflation happens when prices and hourly income both sink in a spiral. We ain’t there yet and as jobs are much more specialized than in earlier times, its quite possible that we will not get there.
What we currently have is asset price dis-inflation because over-leveraged financial entities are deleveraging. That is a normal process and unless it creates a downward spiral in wages it is not deflation.
In the concept of money supply=inflation, the Fed is currently expanding its balance sheet like hell. I do not see a contraction in money supply in any available statistic. M1 and M2 is still quite expansive.
Real deflation is a possibility but it is still unlikely and can be fought with fiscal measures (FDR-like).
Current talk about deflation is a scare tactic to allow an increase in inflation that will hurt many people and benefit a few.

Posted by: b | Nov 7 2008 17:57 utc | 5

The Palin effect

Sales at Neiman Marcus, the luxury department store, dropped nearly 28 percent in October compared with the same month last year.

Posted by: b | Nov 7 2008 18:06 utc | 6

what i find exceptional in this moment is how the medias – confronted with what are obviousllt elements of a class war – that is to say the bhailout are all for one class & not another – that these govts all over the world – cannot find the few million centimes to aid the people in homeless shelters &on the streets but make money dissapear for the elites. & the pêople to this point seem to buy it
i’d like to point out that what is happening in latin america did not arrive because of fancy ideas but instead – the people rising up & saying enough is enough
but in the west – every day of this crisis the middle class, the working class & the poor are being attacked directly & yet the myth that a few lads & lassies in wall street can resolve it is being streched as a kind of truth to breaking point

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Nov 7 2008 19:48 utc | 7

From the article linked @#6:

Two stylishly dressed friends spending time in Midtown Manhattan on Thursday said they used to enjoy shopping. “I want to impulse-buy again,” said a wistful Louise Van Veenendaal, an actress.
“You walk the mall and consumers look like zombies,” said Mr. Morris of Wachovia, after visiting a mall last week. “They’re there in person, but not in spirit.”

More like, the zombies are beginning to wake up. I know this crash is going to get much uglier before it’s over. If the end game includes a rethinking of mindless consumerzombyism, then maybe we’ll have learned something. I include myself as a former conzomby, but I began waking up a while back, so I’m ready. Last month I found a nearly new black wool coat at a resale store for probably a sixth of its original price. I’m calling it my “winter breadline coat,” and I plan to wear it in the rain for the next 10-15 years, come depression or prosperity.

Posted by: Anonymous | Nov 7 2008 20:02 utc | 8

me @8

Posted by: catlady | Nov 7 2008 20:03 utc | 9

GM wants your money without giving you a car …
GM Says It May Run Out of Operating Cash This Year (Update2)

The cash drain reflected the strain of a 21 percent slump in U.S. sales in the quarter as the credit freeze deepened. It also added urgency to U.S. automakers’ request for government aid. The companies are asking for $50 billion in new loans, a person familiar with the proposal said.

Posted by: b | Nov 7 2008 20:10 utc | 10

Rapt,
Kunsler in the column (3ed down) “What Now” makes the case that we’ll be hit bu a double whammy, first by deflation, then later with run away inflation.

Posted by: anna missed | Nov 7 2008 20:19 utc | 11

Telling, is it not, that President elect Obama has now met overtly and covertly with Bidniz and Corporations and has as of yet to meet with labor either overtly or covertly that we know of.
No grassroots no, progressives, just commercial status quot.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 7 2008 20:47 utc | 12

I liked this quote’s transcription.

“Some of the choices that we’re going to make are going to be difficult,” Obama said. “It is not going to be quick. It’s not going to be easy for us to dig ourselves out of the whole that we are in.”

Obama calls for swift action on economy

Posted by: plushtown | Nov 7 2008 21:22 utc | 13

actually, on Sesame St., would mean all was w’s fault.

Posted by: plushtown | Nov 7 2008 21:27 utc | 14

Nice, plush!
W also responsible for this one (OT): Hu’s on first?

Posted by: catlady | Nov 7 2008 21:40 utc | 15

B said, “Real deflation is a possibility but it is still unlikely and can be fought with fiscal measures (FDR-like).”
Kunstler (thank you anna missed) said deflation is certain or at least very likely in the short term. I think Kunstler is blaming the de-leveraging too for that effect. It still appears to me like my cash is worth more because of it; in other words, hang on to your dollars until coming depression is deepest, then convert them to something more concrete that will hold its value better into the future. Like seeds and solar powered water purifier and a mule.
B, you may be right that we will have an FDR-like to prevent “real” deflation, but I am not taking that as a given.

Posted by: rapt | Nov 7 2008 21:44 utc | 16

i would like to say more clearly what i posted on this thread before – that is – that the crisis of capital is irrevocable. they cannot ‘fix’ it. the concentration of wealth is benifiting & can only benifit thos who have too much already. otherwise, everything that the ‘legislators’ of capital can do – is implicity & overtly an attack on the people. in europe it is especially clear but it is underlined by what is happening in the u s & england
if the people cannot be defended in the hours of their direst need then they need to learn, & learn quickly the recent lessons of latin america
the media – always the loyal servant of capital – from the beginning of this friedmanite nightmare to its collapse that media has sold the story of success that has become more & more sordid. equality of opportunity exchanged foàr crude & lout run lottery. the role of the media in exacerbating & promoting the inequality of opportunity – is in & of itself a crime against humanity
how in any sense – this crisis is ‘our’ crisis is in & of itself a lie so libellous that it ought to brign shame & infamy for thos scribblers & commentators who speak it. it is & remains an inevitable crisis of capital. & it is irrevocable. & the beneficiaries will remain the same & the victims the sam. that can be changed if the people realise the endgame of their own fear. it is going to get worse. a lot worse.
their resistance cannot make their situation worse. on the contrary it can make their situation practically better & certainly ‘spiritually’ so
the people of venezuela constructed & forged the bolivrian revolution, so too the bolivian people – it was not the genius of the leadership (tho genius it has) but the exhaustion of the people turned on its head & transformed into political & practical resistance
i would like to believe in an obama but the reality is that it is the epeople’s moment & they must choose to make their demand met & if they are not met – to fight & to fight hard. the economic situation is already catastrophic but we have seen nothing so far – what will happen in the next year will surpass the great depression in both ampleur & depth. it will cross continents & cultures & whatever gains the masses have made the elites will try to destroy them
but it is a unique moment because the interelite rivalry is so intense – each one want to claim the spoils of this crisis & in this rupture there is a huge opening for the people to make their own history like their latin american brothers & sisters.
if they cannot meet the challenge of history they will be crushed by the carelessness of capital

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Nov 7 2008 22:11 utc | 17

rapt #16

hang on to your dollars until coming depression is deepest, then convert them to something more concrete that will hold its value better into the future. Like seeds and solar powered water purifier and a mule.

right impulse, but better NOW (or 2 years ago, when cheaper, and I first started saying this, including that food/necessities prices would rise) buy food, other necessities/trade goods, including medicines,bandages, intoxicants, weapons/ammunition, fuel, store water, obvious stuff. (If inland. If on coast, likely immaterial.)
rgiap #17: correct, but tippy-top capital is care-less because owners acknowledge basic geology.

Posted by: plushtown | Nov 7 2008 23:47 utc | 18

Nice catch, b! I’m convinced that it takes the b effect to spot the priceless of all the Palin effects.

Posted by: Cynthia | Nov 7 2008 23:51 utc | 19

Well, at least it’s good to know that 11.8% of the population is in the same boat as I am. Hopefully Obama the Messiah will get me a job.

Posted by: Rowan | Nov 8 2008 0:37 utc | 20

Interesting pachinko-progression here.
First ‘seneca’, making a wholly unsupported posit, when economic data are freely available and can be parsed using fundamental statistical methods to say, perhaps, “But the truth is, capital… (presumably here ‘seneca’ means “GDP”, or maybe, “net after-tax corporate profits,” or even “overall dividend distributions”, since capitalism is not some ‘thing’ that can ‘like’ any other some ‘non-thing’)… likes high unemployment with a statistical covariance of 0.4547, except when unemployment occurs in Defense, then covariance drops to 0.1243, or when it occurs in biopharm, there ‘capital’ will intercede administratively with a probability of 0.7823.”
Then there’s always a lull on MoA, while the crowd waits, lips pursed, tense. Some nameless blogger in the crowd shouts out, “I’m sympathetic to Hussman’s argument!!”
And it begins. From ‘seneca’ solipsist baseless premise, ‘ralphiboy’ elaborates on the falsehood, with the latest Krugman meme, “your analysis is perfectly in keeping with the Free Market ideology that people are there to serve the markets!”
It snowballs downhill from there.
‘Rapt’ presumes, “This looks to me like deflation, combined with a market crash!” and within five posts, we’re right back to the Marxist dialect angels dancing on the head of a pin, squealing, “me! me! oh, pick me!”, with ‘b’ dropping little plums every other beat as your Southern Baptist call-and-response revival messiah.
Wow! WTF happened to this bar? Where are all the yay-hoo’s? Must be a slow news day.
“And don’t believe what the leftists are saying! This entire wardrobe is borrowed!! I never asked for anything more than a Diet Dr. Pepper once in a while,” Palin said.

Posted by: Benthir Dunthat | Nov 8 2008 4:52 utc | 21

#21, (he, he)
Isn’t a deflationary spiral created by a credit retraction? Because when credit dries up, people/business dependent on it must now liquidate assets in order to meet their obligations. Which then flood the market with said assets, a market already in stress because of the lack of credit. Thus depressing the value of assets and creating a vicious cycle.
I would imagine the deflationary spiral to continue up until those involved actually crash and fail, and those immune retract their assets from market due to the deflation in value. At which time the process will reverse and go into an inflationary spiral because of the rarity of assets on the market relative to the amount of money – a sort of double jeopardy.

Posted by: anna missed | Nov 8 2008 6:06 utc | 22

Forgot to add that money can be printed with impunity during a deflationary period, because it doesn’t register as inflation. At least until the cycle reverses and there’s all that extra money chasing too few assets.
Watching various e-bay markets would confirm there is a distinct deflationary thing going on.

Posted by: anna missed | Nov 8 2008 6:14 utc | 23

Excepting copies of Obama’s books and memorabilia, which have gone through the roof. Like Dreams Of My Father, buy it now for $19,500.00

Posted by: anna missed | Nov 8 2008 6:23 utc | 24

The FT meme here is wrong – some who killed themselves were “investors” others were small farmers drowned in debt.
Sharp rise in Indian investors’ suicides

The global financial crisis is taking its toll in India’s cities as some despairing investors and stockbrokers seek refuge from their losses and debt in suicide.
A wave of financially related deaths over the past month has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of unsophisticated investors and borrowers encouraged by rising markets and easy credit in one of the world’s fastest growing economies.

“People are committing suicide because of difficulties associated with globalisation and a life all about debt. Lots of people are living beyond their means.”

Police estimate that 118,000 people in India killed themselves in 2006, a rise of 34 per cent over a decade.
About 1,000 farmers hit by crop failure and debt kill themselves every month, often with lethal draughts of insecticide, according to official figures.

Posted by: b | Nov 8 2008 10:44 utc | 25

the USA needs a new industrial policy.
the Asian Tigers especially China have proven that well targeted assistance & structural management of new enterprises & industries, that do not get in the way of innovation & ideas can have a massive multiplier effect.
the USA been stripped of its industrial core & transformed into a consumer/import oriented economy. Rather than concede upon itself a post-industrial state-of-mind, the USA should instead pose the challenge from a pre-industrial point-of-view & perspective & should act accordingly. The USA would re-conceive itself as an aspiring new Asian Tiger and identify what it needs to do to actually make it happen.
And a strong dose of protectionism would be required at least initially.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 8 2008 13:42 utc | 26

minimum wage anyone?

Posted by: CP | Nov 8 2008 14:12 utc | 27

Yes, but those who consciously stripped the US of its industrial base — it didn’t jus’ happen by accident you know, the elite have what we call “planners” — are the same banksters who financed Obie’s campaign, and then got paid for it.
And then, if we magically do get a new industrial policy, what about the greenhouse gases? Scientists say we have perhaps several years, at most, to prevent runaway catastrophic climate change from CO2.
You see, this situation, this endgame if you will, has been developing since Nixon’s time (middle-class protest, opening of China, EPA), and now, with the institutional forces in place, and a burgeoning “Cult of Personality” to buttress those forces, a solution that the poor and middle class might be inclined to accept is hard to foresee. Those nations who buy the debt (China) that paid the banksters might be a little annoyed by us suddenly not supporting their factories. Its what we call a World System, you see.

Posted by: Malooga | Nov 8 2008 14:23 utc | 28

By the way, its called Import Substitution Industrialization. Its success triggered the US’s War on Latin America, and its evil stepson, the War with on Drugs.
The US is now going through a sort of post-modern Dependency Theory blowback.
Its complicated. One has to read and study the texts if one wants to outsmart the professional planners.

Posted by: Malooga | Nov 8 2008 14:36 utc | 29

from shadow stats:
link
– figures U3, U6 (BLS stats) and SGS alternative.
The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated “discouraged workers” defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.
see here: shadow stats
————-
@ Benthir Dunthat, 😉 🙂 @ Uncle Scam, at 12, I agree; unsurprising, but noteworthy. and more.. @ all, you are lucky to have been spared a looong post of Piper Palin’s Louis Vuitton Bag, a fake.

Posted by: Tangerine | Nov 8 2008 14:47 utc | 30

I will say this, why in the hell is Palin’s Wardrobe an issue for discussion at this point? It’s over. Obama won. Palin’s history, for now, and probably forever, in regards to National Politics, so the MSM’s continuation of this ridiculous story is deplorable when you consider the challenges with which we are confronted in this Nation, and the World.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Nov 8 2008 15:10 utc | 31

Malooga: “Its complicated. One has to read and study the texts if one wants to outsmart the professional planners.”
One might well *understand* the professional planners as to their gameplan. To outsmart them would be a highly unlikely result of one’s effort to educate oneself as to their motivations and machinations.
Our future is in their hands.
Rather sad that all of mankind’s potential has been reduced to nothing by a bunch of greedy sociopaths. In an ocean of meaningless parables the bible did have one snippet of real information: The love of money is the root of all evil.

Posted by: James Crow | Nov 8 2008 15:41 utc | 32

the USA is going to evolve a new industrial policy whether it likes it or not. The trend towards a “service-based” economy is unsustainable and already a disaster.
question is whether there are sensible smart options for a new industrial policy that effectively also addresses broader goals : jobs, wages, environment, infrastructure, sustainable energy/resources, health-care, housing … ? And I believe there are.
one big edge that China has is the manner in which its government plays a substantial role in assisting & coordinating its manufacturing base. The USA govt occasionally plays a huge role but mostly after problems emerge. Hence the current massive bailouts & give-aways to huge corporations. Seems rather stupid when these problems were predicted years ago & could have been averted with far less pain via effective govt intervention.
The Germans, Swedes, Finns & Norwegians do a pretty decent of coordinating their industrial bases too. A good example is Norway which has gradually built & leveraged its home-grown expertise in oil & gas into a significant export products/services industry.
The global market has changed & its become too competitive for any single economy to thrive without well targeted & effective government assistance & coordination.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 8 2008 15:43 utc | 33

b, you are so right about the dis-inflation happening in the US. Despite large pressure for prices to drop on necessities like food and housing, it’s not happening, really. Yes there is an effect at the fringes where expensive clothes stores will go broke; that doesn’t concern me. What I find interesting is the prices at Wal-Mart are not going down. It is still hard to buy a functional vehicle for a cheap price. Real estate prices and rent are still high.
What I mean is, it is almost impossible to open a food store or build yourself a house in the US now. The government has created huge barriers to entry in these markets. A bailout of the existing automakers will be just another example. This crisis could actually benefit the average person in the US if prices were allowed to fall, but they are not being allowed to, in order to protect the established interests, as you say.

Posted by: dacorilitter | Nov 8 2008 16:02 utc | 34

why in the hell is Palin’s Wardrobe an issue for discussion at this point?
because the gop is imploding. they are having an internal struggle to determine who will be leading the party. these ‘leaks’ are hammered home on fox news and initiated w/the mcCain campaign. some goppers want to bury her here and now. too many rumors she’s angling for a run in ’12. newsweek
they were furious when they heard rumors that Todd Palin was calling around to Alaska bigwigs telling them to hold their powder until 2012.

Posted by: annie | Nov 8 2008 16:07 utc | 35

For straight talk relating to the US economy (evidently an extremely scarce thing at the moment), people should listen to Max Keiser, Peter Schiff, Jims Rogers and of course Ron Paul…Printy printy printy will not solve this problem, but only make it worse, unfortunately.

Posted by: Al | Nov 8 2008 16:44 utc | 36

they were furious when they heard rumors that Todd Palin was calling around to Alaska bigwigs telling them to hold their powder until 2012. Palin’s chance in 2012 are just about zilch. Firstly because she has no major state supporting her. Alaska doesn’t have enough numerical clout to seriously pressure the national party structure, the big states have plenty of capable pols who held off this cycle because the shrub factor was too large, just itching to have a go in 2012.
Secondly the rethugs are going to recognise that they can no longer win refighting the culture wars. That shit doesn’t work when times get serious most peeps aren’t interested in what their next door neighbours kids are up to when they need to put food on their own table.
Anyone who thinks the problems will be over in four years is dreaming.
The number one problem is that there will be incredible impetus, from the sort of argument in this thread for amerika to turn the clock back and recreate it’s industrial base.
I hate to be the one to tell ya but the chances of that working are slim to none. If amerika tried that it’s people really would be competing head to head with the semi-slave piece workers in Latin America and Asia.
Sure they could put up protectionist barriers and manufacture for the domestic market, but that is all it would be, cause as soon as amerika put up the barriers so would everyone else, which would put the amerikan economy righ up shit creek. amerika is too heavily indebted and so dependent on imported goods, not just energy, everyone forgets that oil’s major utility is as a standard mix of stable complex organic molecules. These are used to manufacture everything we use and take for medication, even some of the things we eat especially the chemicals that allow intensive agriculture.
So if amerika disengaged from world trade how would it get the materials to manufacture with?
Now I know the idea of complete self sufficient organic lifestyle prolly sounds good to many here, but do you really think you can sell that to your fellow citizens overnight?
The result would be something like the economy I grew up in, capitalist, but heavily protected capitalist where the state had to manage the types of goods being manufactured to ensure sufficient goods saleable overseas were made to enable us to buy the necessities. Those goods sold overseas were heavily subsidised by domestic consumers who paid more for theirs than the foreigners did, so as to ensure international competitiveness.
Many on the left in amerika seem to have never bothered to analyse why it was that the amerikan capitalists moved their operations offshore. Why did domestic labour become untenable, and no I’m not arguing about wages or health benefits here, the reasons why the capitalists moved were more fundamental than that.
As far as I can see the major problem confronting amerika is that the resources that built the empire are close to exhausted. The mines, forests and oil wells have had all the easy ‘earns’ taken out of them which makes any manufacturing based on those resources unable to compete on price.
That makes the alternatives either continuing imperialism where the resources are stolen from other ‘weaker’ nations. That requires full economic engagement with the rest of the world, meaning no protectionism and lots of wars – kinda what has been going on lately, or a decision not to compete on price with high volume crappy goods, where people think smart about the best way to add value to what resources are left that can be sustainably exploited.
The second option is obviously preferable to most here but that isn’t an overnight move. To achieve that amerika would have to recognise that it’s most useful resource is it’s humans and invest heavily in their education health and general well being especially children’s well being.
That’s quite an about face in a society trained to treat the masses as the enemy, even in the ‘lefty’ circles, but it could be done, over a couple of generations. How long do you reckon that it will take before amerikans get tired of working for the future and go back to electing someone who offers instant gratification?
Anyway I gotta go back to thinking about my society where the peeps got tired of waiting even though unemployment was at record lows and voted for immediate tax cuts which they will never see as the greedheads are once again allowed to grab the dough before it gets out to the deluded chunk (40%) who voted for tax cuts with a worldwide economic meltdown on the horizon.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Nov 8 2008 17:09 utc | 37

Uncle $cam | Nov 7, 2008 3:47:30 PM | #12 —
Kevin Phillips on Bill Moyers’ Journal last night also noted the missing player at Obama’s press conference Friday. Lots of investor class advisers (plus new chief of staff Emanuel very up front and visible, and VP Biden), but no one from labor. Phillips said Robert Reich sometimes addresses labor issues, but he is not of labor in the way the Banker Boyz and banksters are of the controlling investor class (which does not include workers with money in IRA’s and 401K’s–we have zero clout; to call us part of the “investor class” is Bizarro World terminology).
Phillips did not sound very optimistic. In the past he has said it will probably require something as dire as the Great Depression to shake American voters out of their propaganda-filled world view and see that there needs to be real change. So far, this has not been bad enough is what I took from his discussion. Good segment.
Available as video on the web, with transcript coming soonish.
Not so good segment, but telling in its way: the discussion on Charlie Rose last night, with 2 historians and one political journalist waxing eloquent in their praise of The One. Michael Beschloss, Alan Brinkley, and David Remnick were still filled with the glow of Tuesday night in Grant Park, Chicago–altho’ Remnick said that in a week or so journalists would “climb out of the tank” and begin to actually analyze Obama and his actions. (Hey, first time I’ve heard a journalist admit to being in the tank! He seemed pleased to be there.) Brinkley said Obama was the greatest orator to become president in the last 100 or so years. FDR was “ok” and Reagan was great but didn’t write his own words. (Obama does?? And he knows this how? This is from a historian!)
Video not up yet–and site makes finding transcripts difficult, so I don’t now if one will be up. It used to be great for transcripts, but that was some years ago.

Posted by: jawbone | Nov 8 2008 17:13 utc | 38

Thanks DID@37
To add, I believe most if not every nation that has successfully developed a capability in a particular manufacturing sector, in the face of foreign competition, has had to put up some protectionist barriers. In the case of China, keeping its currency weak provides the same protectionist effect as applying tariffs. Eventually, the USA is going to have to follow suit in some fashion.
Al@36,
Thanks, I will check them out

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 8 2008 17:34 utc | 39

The service economy and health care.
Health care in in the US is an ‘industry’ in as much as it sells products and services. It is locally bound, because of the ‘service’ to individuals aspect.
The poor in the US don’t have access to it; as clients they are of no interest, they can never, ever, pay the extravagant sums billed, even thru insurance, so are discarded, written off.
(Btw, Obama will not be able to do anything about this state of affairs.)
‘Health’ is the biggest booming US biz (Education is a no 2. contender) in terms of jobs, GDP, revenue, all rising…
In the US, the health industry is a massive State, tax-payer supported enterprise, crony state-corp-funded scams at their worst.
Sucks in all the extra revenue that ordinary ppl make, in a kind of sanctimonious round-about.
Some nos and opinions, from a blogger, one pov:
charles
(lest anyone mistake, i am for universal single payer health care, as it is called in the US)

Posted by: Tangerine | Nov 8 2008 18:03 utc | 40

Let’s see, how does Rahm stand on economic matters.
Democrats Kiss Up to K Street

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) provides a good example of dishonest graft. In 1993, Emanuel was the Clinton administration aide charged with ramming NAFTA through Congress “over the dead bodies” of labor and environmental groups, as American Express’s CEO cheered at the time. Emanuel orchestrated weekly meetings with K Street lobbyists to strategize about how to pressure Democratic lawmakers. Emanuel went on to cash in as an investment banker, raking in roughly $16 million over a two-year period. From his Wall Street perch in 2000, he published a scathing Wall Street Journal op-ed demanding Congress pass the China free trade deal –another K Street-backed goodie that has helped keep American wages stagnating in the face of skyrocketing corporate profits, and is now projected to destroy at least 1 million American jobs, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
Just two years after grossly outspending an opponent to buy an Illinois congressional seat, Emanuel was appointed to the House Ways and Means Committee, the panel that oversees trade policy and that helped corporate lobbyists ram NAFTA through back in 1993. Emanuel also was appointed head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which ran millions of dollars worth of ads trumpeting Democrats anti-corruption platform, and which supported the scores of Democrats running against the very lobbyist-written trade policies Emanuel has based his political career on.
Now, with Emanuel as Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, we see dishonest graft kick into high gear. The same day as the press conference, a group of House Democrats wrote a formal letter to Emanuel demanding he hold a Democratic Caucus meeting to discuss the secret trade negotiations going on between a handful of Democrats and the White House. That letter, according to The Hill, was “rebuffed” even though, again, it was Emanuel’s DCCC that aggressively supported Democrats 2006 fair trade candidates. No meeting occurred, and instead Democratic leaders held their press conference, announcing a secret trade deal that, like NAFTA, is strongly backed by K Street lobbyists, but opposed by organized labor, environmental groups, health care groups and grassroots Democrats. Meanwhile, when Emanuel was asked by the Politico’s Jeff Patch for details about why Democrats were now backing off their promises to reform lobbying laws so as to prevent Abramoff-style abuse, he did his best Dick Cheney impression, telling the reporter, “Why don’t you go fuck yourself.”

Posted by: Obamageddon | Nov 8 2008 18:50 utc | 41

My wife and I are retired on Medicare, and recently began to enrich ourselves on drug rebates, where our physician prescribes expensive pharmaceuticals that are billed to Medicare, nothing out of our pocket, then a week or so later, we get a check from the drug company for $25, how great is that?! So I rounded up about 50 homeless people downtown, took them over to the doctor, they all gave my address when they got their prescriptions. Now I have 50 rebate checks for $25! I’ll give them each $5 to cash them, and make $1000! We’re having steak tonight! Whoo hoo!
We’re transmogrifying at light speed from Enron round-tripping energy charges, Refco round-tripping bailout monies and the Halliban round-tripping Cheney war policy into corporate profits, into a more kinder, gentler, Freedom and Democracy(TM) soft-shoe vibe of US trade unions round-tripping union pension funds and US physicians round-tripping Medicare payments and drug company rebates, and Congress planning to repatriate our 401k’s back into the Social Security Slush Fund, just like back in 1968!
Is this a great country, or what?!

Posted by: Jamilla Taipon | Nov 8 2008 19:15 utc | 42

@41,
its politically smart for a prez to have a couple of highly partisan “street-fighter” “bad-guy” types on his team. The Dems have been too soft for too long & to the extent that the Repubs fear Rahm Emanuel, he looks like a good choice for the job.
not to condone or endorse Rahms record and Obama must know he needs to keep Rahm on a short leash. Otherwise, it comes back on Obama. Simple.
also WH-COS is not by job-description a major policy-making role though we would be fooled not to expect Rahm to contribute significantly. But even if Obama was the type of prez who’s not tuned-in or paying attention, the WH-COS is not going to dominate policy.
like any Dem prez confronted with the Republican mode of operation, Obama needs a couple of people who are’nt shy about getting nasty & dirty with the Republicans. Unless he intends to end up another Carter or Clinton. Rahm may not be the most likable type but he brings a big load when you need it.
also, Rahm strikes me as more of a fixer/wheeler-dealer type than an ideologue. Which is exactly what Obama wants.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 8 2008 19:32 utc | 43

OBG 41) What are you trolling to impugn?

Posted by: Darien Campwell | Nov 8 2008 19:37 utc | 44

common sense

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Nov 8 2008 20:24 utc | 45

Darien Campwell @ 44,
Thanks for the link on Rahms voting record. For the most part it looks like what one would expect from a progressive. And I do’nt see any major philosophical differences with Obama in it. He even supports quick withdrawal from Iraq.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 8 2008 20:28 utc | 46

@Darien Campwell before you come it here and accuse a regular if newish contributor of trolling, you would be wise to a/ ensure your own credibility had been earned in this forum and b/Refrain from playing the man and instead play the ball with a few facts
I dunno who runs that site you linked to which professes to have Rahm’s voting record. It had three entries under foreign policy. I went to a site I know from previous research to be objective, project vote smart which after emphasising that their archives are still incomplete listed more than 30 foreign policy votes by Rahm.
They include going along with all the war apropriations bills when the dems voted for empire against the wishes of their voters and the promises they made before 2006. It also includes support for shrub rolling up the cost of wars into general appropriations to keep the citizens from knowing how much the adventures cost by voting yes to “Inclusion of Iraq and Afghanistan Military Operations Funding with the Consolidated Appropriations”
I suggest that MoA-ites who are interested in this and who are gonna far more familiar with amerikan legislation than I have any desire to be peruse a more objective site than the one Campwell linked to.
I really suggest that you use fact to support your arguments rather than baseless character shots.
You should know this is coming from someone who has expressed doubts about much of what Obamageddon has written, although that I admit is only because I have elected to suspend disbelief about the new administration until something typically self serving and/or empire serving is committed by the Obama administration. I wanna be wrong but I fear that the new boss turning out to be just like the old boss is an inevitability.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Nov 9 2008 2:12 utc | 47

debs
feeling very much like you- not exactly a suspension of belief – & i think understanding both history & our actuality well enough – i do want to believe in what appears a decency & intelligence in this man, obama. history is telling me otherwise – the rise & fall of empires tells me otherwise – instinct tells me that the collapse of capital is so fatal that they required a human face to their evil enterprise – but perhaps he & the people especially the young can – perhaps pull america back before it pulls us over the abyss
& commiserations for the ugly turn in your country. i think people forget too easily that after chile – nz was the prethatcherian friedmanite exercise that took that country right into the filth – people have short memories – it seems

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Nov 9 2008 2:43 utc | 48

@jony_b_cool “I believe most if not every nation that has successfully developed a capability in a particular manufacturing sector, in the face of foreign competition, has had to put up some protectionist barriers.”
Sorry I have to disagree with you there. It is true than many countries used to have protectionist barriers just as amerika did and then those countries got rid of those protectionist rules frequently under pressure from amerika who used their at that time strong economy to abuse the superior negotiating position that gave them, the amerikan end of the deal was to abolish some of their protectionism, usually in manufacturing whilst maintaining, even strengthening agricultural protectionism.
I realise that these trade deals have been portrayed in amerika as some sort of silly giveaway where amerika gave way on lots of issues for nothing in return. this was far from the case, the negotiators drove a hard bargain but they looked after certain sectors particularly the rural economy at the expense of other, often manufacturing sectors.
If amerika were to turn around and breach all of the multi-lateral agreements (eg WTO deals) and bilateral (eg US Australia Free Trade deal) agreements, it would immediately weaken it’s bargaining position because instead of playing everybody off as it had in the past it would be pissing everybody off and uniting all of amerika’s trading partners in a bloc of solidarity, a situation that would cost amerika dearly.
The alternative would be to renegotiate with trading partners one by one in a very short timeframe as many of the deals have clauses about getting as good as anyome else. So if amerikan trade negotiaters were to sit down with say Japan or even China and say “How about agreeing that we put a tariff on heavy engineering imports from Japan/China – say an extra 5% on all imported motor vehicles and in return amerika agrees to revoke those pesky rules which stop you guys from sending agricultural produce to us”
A big chunk of other countries would go straight to the WTO and argue that under the terms of their existing deal they were also allowed the agricultural access, that is without them making any change to heavy engineering exports, because that was the new best deal on offer. That amerika had insisted on these clauses mainly to prevent other nations from doing what amerika was now doing, making side deals to subvert trade agreements.
And that is without even considering what the reaction from amerika’s rural heartland would be if their agricultural exports and domestic sales suddenly faced level playing field competition.
Whatever subsidies were in place when adam was a boy and japan and germany first exported cars have been either abolished or ameliorated with side deals, as is the case with all other manufacturing countries, and a trade war to re-open them wouldn’t help the amerikan economy in the least.
How can amerika hope to trade competitively when it tries to play a shell game with labour costs especially labour training costs by importing workers that other societies have borne the cost of training, because training it’s own workers would leave less money available for the corporate welfare state.
Amerika won’t be competitive until the real costs of manufacturing are out in the open.
Every item produced generates a huge corporate welfare surcharge and an even bigger military-industrial bloc surcharge overhang.
amerika is now spending more on warfare than the entire rest of the world put together, even though the corporations don’t get a bill for this, the money to pay for it has to be generated out of foreign trade.
Which brings me to the bit about China. The US China trade deficit is in hundreds, thousands? of billions of US dollars which means China would need it’s head read if it were to re value against the $US, because in effect it would be reducing the amount that it had been promised to be repaid by the same percentage as the revaluation.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Nov 9 2008 2:58 utc | 49

uniting all of amerika’s trading partners in a bloc of solidarity, a situation that would cost amerika dearly.
I thought “bloc” meant,in the old western marxist sense, an “ideological bloc,” meant a competing theory of practice aimed at finishing off the legacy capitals. I don’t know what ideology the CCP has, but it’s not a revolutionary ideology. A capitalism of state-protected quasi-competing capitals is china. They are the closest thing we have to fascism, plain & simple.America, because of it’s albeit quaint, capitalist competition, is capable of far more reform than china, or the eu for that matter which lacks an intervening “fed.” vAs far as ideological bloc goes, the leadership of the globalist capitalist class by “amerikans” (is this a kafaka thing? What the fuck are you doing?) kicks euro-sino ass.
The alternative would be to renegotiate with trading partners
What part of globalist capitalist class don’t you understand? Marx is spot on about overpruduction” The great “heap” of goods has been raced to american landfills. Good for Asia. One of the great failures of b’s analysis (lately, he has become a rather strange moneterist in his explanations of “money supply” eek), is that it is certainly not true that america can be dismissed as a dumping ground for asia’s exports. Oh my, what a categorical failure that analysis chained itself to!
suddenly faced level playing field competition.
oh, god. Shall we lift the lid and look at NZ’s nightmare recession? Where are these Asian kittens going to find their vaunted “domestic economy”–because that’s your ace in the hole–but you’re not reading your cards well, debs.
shell game with labour costs especially labour training costs
ok. I’m not following your arg too well here. But, this I’ll say. America is positioned much more favorably than is asia wrt future labor costs. We have Mexicans making babies here like you wouldn’t believe. And, man,. they work, work, work. We’re young, baby. Young. You’re old and smoke too many camel straights.
China
I think your analysis of china doesn’t make too much sense.
Was this ad hominem?
I don’t wanna be ad hominem.

Posted by: slothrop | Nov 9 2008 4:14 utc | 50

Isn’t this Financial bailout just wonderful?

Just 3 ‘superbanks’ now dominate industry

[snip]

“Consumers are going to be victims of higher and more punitive fees,” Greenberg predicts.
Moreover, many analysts worry about how federal and state authorities, who were unable to prevent the current financial industry meltdown, will be able to monitor the new giant banks that combine a wide range of operations from investment banking to consumer lending.
“Large institutions are impossible to manage prudently, let alone regulate,” says Amar Bhide, a professor at the Columbia Business School.
In fact, existing federal banking laws say that no bank can have more than 10 percent of the domestic deposit market — a threshold recently surpassed by all three superbanks.
When asked whether the government would take any action, a Justice Department official was noncommittal.
“It’s always something we’ve looked at and will continue to look at,” said spokeswoman Gina Talamona. “It’s something we’ve looked at as part of our general antitrust review.”
The reason limits on market share were put in place were so banks didn’t get so big they’d become monopolies that could risk the whole economy, explains Atul Gupta, finance department chair for Bentley University in Boston.
But now the government appears to be pushing banks in the direction of more consolidation. The Treasury is pouring some $250 billion of taxpayer money into healthy financial institutions, and some of that is being used by stronger banks to snap up weaker rivals.

[snip]

Posted by: Rick | Nov 9 2008 4:45 utc | 51

Thanks jawbone, @38
been a fan of Phillips for a while, punch in his name in MOA archives you’ll find other interesting posts too. thanks…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 9 2008 5:42 utc | 52

Debs:

[snip]
The number one problem is that there will be incredible impetus, from the sort of argument in this thread for amerika to turn the clock back and recreate it’s industrial base.
I hate to be the one to tell ya but the chances of that working are slim to none. If amerika tried that it’s people really would be competing head to head with the semi-slave piece workers in Latin America and Asia.
[snip]
As far as I can see the major problem confronting amerika is that the resources that built the empire are close to exhausted. The mines, forests and oil wells have had all the easy ‘earns’ taken out of them which makes any manufacturing based on those resources unable to compete on price.
[snip]

Although I firmly agree with you that America, as a society, has neglected educating its children properly. But believe me, to repeat a phrase I just recently used, we’all just didn’t fall off the back of a turnup truck. Without a doubt, too many of us seem to watch the boob tube without end to our detriment. Yet, having worked as a manufacturing engineer for more than one large manufacturer, I can assure you that large labor pools are not necessarily needed in modern manufacturing, mining, forestry or agriculture. Efficiency thru method and machine can work wonders. And even with today’s high fuel rates, shipping/trade costs for materials/subassemblies is not usually an obstacle. As just a small example from history, Japan has always exported more manufactured items than either you or I could even imagine with limited raw resources. Why should I believe that Americans, seemingly alone in your implications, suffer such limitations among nations? This line of thinking of yours is starting to get old. And speaking of old, the products, services and education needed for the world’s future will bear little resemblance to yesterday’s needs.

Posted by: Rick | Nov 9 2008 5:49 utc | 53

Debs:

[snip]
Many on the left in amerika seem to have never bothered to analyse why it was that the amerikan capitalists moved their operations offshore. Why did domestic labour become untenable, and no I’m not arguing about wages or health benefits here, the reasons why the capitalists moved were more fundamental than that.
As far as I can see the major problem confronting amerika is that the resources that built the empire are close to exhausted. The mines, forests and oil wells have had all the easy ‘earns’ taken out of them which makes any manufacturing based on those resources unable to compete on price.
[snip]

Postscript: I can assure you, the reason for moving manufacturing ‘offshore’ was labor. And it wasn’t always moved offshore. Unless your as bad as geography as many think Gov. Palin is, Mexico is not offshore! In addition, especially years ago, the significant lower wage rates in the southern U.S. caused many industries to simply relocate south, not offshore. In more recent times, the manufacturing capabilitiies/quality of the East became almost a necessity for some products. SHOWA in Japan comes to mind as a good example. All this has nothing to do with resources when speaking about manufacturing. Unless one is referring to the health of human resources and diferrent enviromental regulations, like CAD plating for example. Cadmium makes an excellent corrosion resistant plating but the metal is highly toxic and the process could not be done legally in the U.S.,so companies imported the CAD plated parts. A terrible practice showing how corporations can turn a blind eye to humanity. But to simply state in this example that the U.S. wanted to steal Japan’s raw materials reeks of B.S. Again, your thinking is getting into a rut.

Posted by: Rick | Nov 9 2008 6:30 utc | 54

annie, obamag,
Palin is trying to keep afloat, and anything that keeps her swirling around the edge of the bowl will keep her from getting flushed like she deserves to, even a controversy about her shopping spree.

Posted by: ralphieboy | Nov 9 2008 8:37 utc | 55

If anyone was wondering where all the neo-liberal fantasies went, they are alive and ablaze in Green Zone, Baghdad:
Iraq’s top planner aims to cut 75 percent of public jobs

Iraq’s planning minister has ambitious plans to trim the fat from the government, reducing its workforce by 75 percent in 10 years and rebalancing a fiscal budget almost entirely reliant on oil exports.
(…)
Baban said many public sectors of the Iraqi economy could be privatised, including transportation, agriculture, industry and services.
“All financial sectors, banks, insurance, capital markets, all these activities should be 100 percent private,” said the former leader of the Sunni Islamic Party. “Jobs related to security will stay with the government.”
(snip)

While, elsewhere in the world,
China announces US $ 570 billion stimulus package

(snip)
A stimulus package estimated at 4 trillion yuan (about 570 billion U.S. dollars) will be spent over the next two years to finance programs in 10 major areas, such as low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation, the environment, technological innovation and rebuilding from several disasters, most notably the May 12 earthquake.
(snip)

Tsk… So old-fashioned.

Posted by: Alamet | Nov 9 2008 23:04 utc | 56