Visually Noticing The Downturn

October 30, 2008

The Baltic Dry Index measures cost for cargoes of raw materials by sea. It was around 2,000 points in the beginning of 2006. It jumped to 12,000 in mid 2008. Since then it fell to 925. That is an unprecedented collapse of freight rates.

But its not only raw material transport which slumped. Yesterday I took this picture of a usually empty part of Hamburg harbor.

bigger, other perspective

These are five perfectly good feeder ships, normally used to distribute oversea containers coming from China to the Baltics and up to the UK, Sweden and Norway. Now they are moored to dolphins in the middle of the river.

I pass the place quite often and I never saw more than one ship laying there except during Christmas week. But I used to have a book with a harbor picture taken at the same place during the Great Depression. It showed some 15 out-of-work ships moored there.

These feeder ship are owned by small investors through private closed funds sold by local banks here. While Greece and Japan own the big bulker fleets, German private funds dominate the worldwide container ship market with ownership of some 3,000+ ships.

Having these out of work, will hit the income of a lot of normal folks around me.

Those ships are the first big locally visible sign of the downturn I noticed here.

What are signs in your area?

Posted by b on October 30, 2008 at 16:26 UTC | Permalink

Comments

2 houses have been on sail in my Las Vegas street for quite sometime. I checked the asking prices same they are down to 2003 levels. And they still aren’t selling. At the peak, such houses were for 800k USD. Now they are asking 550 and not getting it. In 1999 they were about 350 to 400. Pretty soon they will be again.

Posted by: Lysander | Oct 30 2008 16:54 utc | 1

Great post B:, sometimes a picture can speak louder than words.

What are signs in your area?

commercial office/warehousing space vacancy up by about a third in last quarter alone (Albuquerque, NM). Huge downturn in nearly everything construction related. And FWIW, ABQ not a hugely exploding metropolis this decade like Florida/So Cal/Phoenix etc… it’s been relatively slow but steady for quite some time. Population growth about 3% each of last 3 years.
I’m in tech… nearly everything to do w/M$: admin, db, coding, web technologies, communications and more. I have a good pulse on things. Layoffs of even MCSEs very significant just since Paulson’s tap on shoulder to congress. There is near 0 hiring recruiting for any of these disciplines, rather significant contraction in job market. And likely to surprise of many, ABQ has been an emerging tech town this decade.
Oh yea, and a lot of HUMMER’s for sale.
…
I’m curious what you & MofA readers thought of Obama’s 30 min primetime show last night. I thought he missed the mark entirely. Given window of opportunity to dismantle republican’s version of free market capitalism piece by piece, not to mention dangerous precipice US/world economy close to sliding into, sure seems to me he has/had a hell of an opportunity to really focus activity in all kinds of needed areas… shift things in very meaningful ways.
What I saw looked like a documentary on middle America blue collar econ woes. Ok, fine. But why did most of those folks look so sick… fat, boxes full of pills, seemingly oblivious to mechanisms affecting their lives much less intellectually equipped to advocate for meaningful changes/focus/investment etc.
We’re broke. We need to energize large amounts of very smart and aware people in purposeful/focused manner on things very, very badly needed. And somehow we need to get folks like Obama highlighted a whole lot smarter.
Personally, I’m hugely disappointed in what I saw last night… hugely. I hope it did not pretend what he’s going to be bringing to the table.

Posted by: jdmckay | Oct 30 2008 17:15 utc | 2

Same as Lysander has noticed, houses here (20km n of Los Angeles) are sprouting ‘For Sale’ signs like weeds in a garden. Condominiums across the street have gone from $350K last year to $280K, and I expect them to drop again soon.
There are sports cars, pickup trucks and SUVs for sale on the streets everywhere I look.
This election will have several mass transit and alternative energy measures on the ballot for California, including a high-speed rail measure for a line between Los Angeles and San Francisco (FINALLY!!!).
Formula One racing (my guilty pleasure) is going hybrid next year with KERS systems (Kinetic Energy Recovery System). Also, a recent pre-race show had a lengthy discussion about the decadence apparent in the lavish mobile team accommodation camps that appear at every race.

Posted by: Dr. Wellington Yueh | Oct 30 2008 17:17 utc | 3

jdmckay, maybe you weren’t the target audience. I don’t think many folks who read and post to MOA would be considered Obama’s audience, including me. For starters, all of us here are intelligent enough to know that what is ocurring cannot be completely pinned on Bush and the last 8 years. Sure, Bush took the gloves off and hit the nitrous, but the seeds were planted long ago. I would say after World War II when the Military Industrial Complex began to take shape, it was the beginning of the end of any chance. It’s now a cancer so metastized, the patient is now terminal. Maybe that’s a good thing for the rest of the planet. The U.S. is like a rabid dog gone mad.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Oct 30 2008 17:31 utc | 4

@2,
I am also doing IT consulting and many projects are being frozen, delayed or canceled.
Regarding the infomercial- Playing the spinmeister, I would have had a segment on people doing relatively well and secure while emphasizing that ‘we’ can do better. It was too sappy over all but it was probably effective in assuaging middle American fears. We can look forward to fireside chats in the near future, hopefully with more depth and substance than that half hour.
Having said that, the small adjustment of course won’t keep the US super-tanker of crap from smashing on the reef of history.

Posted by: biklett | Oct 30 2008 17:43 utc | 5

Noticeable falloff in the amount of traffic, most everywhere.
Ferries to my island not overloading as much, especially during commuter hours (which is unheard of).
Lots and lots of for sale signs everywhere. Along with an inversely proportion of “sold” signs.
Didn’t bother to watch the infomertial. Knew it would be pablam for the masses. Certainly the folks here understand that Obama cannot say anything that would challenge the exceptionalist myth of America. Which precludes the possibility of outlining a notably different/radical foreign or domestic policy initiative. What he is doing however, is outlining the necessity of change without defining that change. I believe the people themselves are willing to embrace this notion of change, even radical change, like say the notion of socialism, but cannot actually admit to it to themselves in public discourse. The Bush years have used American exceptionalism to destroy American exceptionalism and so the people have run out of exceptional American solutions to all the problems that now beset it. And consequently, there is the uncomfortable realization that exceptionalism cannot only not solve Americas problems, but that it actually may be the source of those problems. Sure proof of this is the inability of the McCain/Palin ticket to apply the Nixonian fear identity anti-exceptionalist labels to the Democrats, and are not only unable to make them stick, but are appearing to have a reverse effect. And that IS a real change.

Posted by: anna missed | Oct 30 2008 18:01 utc | 6

A bit more difficult to tell here in Vermont, which has been drifting into recession for a few years now as far as I can tell (from the perspective of small business, anyway). Wages have been in the toilet for ever, goods and especially food has always been expensive.
Food suddenly became ludicrously expensive even by our standards, though. Local businesses are feeling the squeeze, there are some rural streets (with prestige new-builds) that are lined with For Sale signs, and that tell-all of tell-alls for VT: folks are selling off their snowmobiles. That’s when you know it’s serious. The VT equivalent of your Hamburg harbour pic, b, is the all-but empty forecourt of our local Polaris dealership.
jdmckay, I’m with you on the infommercial.

Posted by: Tantalus | Oct 30 2008 18:08 utc | 7

Anna Missed:
The Bush years have used American exceptionalism to destroy American exceptionalism and so the people have run out of exceptional American solutions to all the problems that now beset it. And consequently, there is the uncomfortable realization that exceptionalism cannot only not solve Americas problems, but that it actually may be the source of those problems.
Not to mention how exceptionally shit life in America has become compared to a lot of other places…

Posted by: Tantalus | Oct 30 2008 18:10 utc | 8

American exceptionalism would’ve taken a big hit if people noticed the crisis hit US even before Europe, and seems to be hurting more in America than in many other places. Though I can’t say to which extent Joe the slave-worker has really noticed it.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Oct 30 2008 18:47 utc | 9

urban Utah: like other places, lots of houses, pickup trucks, SUVs for sale. Ridiculous-looking ‘industrial park’ office buildings built out in the fields perpetually up for lease.
Fresh fruit, vegetables, fish now priced out of reach of the poor, and out of the comfort zone of the thrifty among the middle class.
Friend who used to have decent retail jobs now unemployed.
Community college enrollment was sharply up this year as tuition increase was nowhere near real inflation. Plus because of unemployment.
Increase in Army ROTC uniforms seen around campus.

Posted by: Cloud | Oct 30 2008 18:57 utc | 10

re: signs of recession, I forgot perhaps our area’s most poignant example: Eclipse Aviation, a project to build light, affordable and more effecient small/biz level jets. They’ve had problems & delays, seems some poor management decisions, production & supplier problems, and financing’s dried up.
Whatever the case, it was a huge thing here as well as hoped for showcase for best technology & production for these things… the state and city invested a lot.
The problems arose, Eclipse needed signficant new capital in last few months and couldn’t get it. So they found it in Russia, and are moving significant production facilities there.

Posted by: jdmckay | Oct 30 2008 19:03 utc | 11

Eric Foner interview on American exceptionalism and history:
Link

Posted by: biklett | Oct 30 2008 20:52 utc | 12

My cousin has a condo for sale in Ocala Florida since this summer — there has yet to come anybody to even look at the place.
Here in the Happy Little Kingdom of Denmark, as you know, Sterling Airways went belly up, leaving thousands of passengers stranded all over the place.
It seems that the people who make the “for sale” signs must be doing a booming business. They say on the radio that the falling prices in housing is going to hit farmland even worse. The prediction is that farm land will fall 50% — if this becomes reality, a lot of young farmers who have purchased land at the pumped up prices will be really screwed — interest rates for business loans have doubled. True, the price of some products has gone rather high — I paid 6$ for 2 kilo organic flour today that cost $3.50 ½ a year ago — but I figure it isn’t the farmer getting the most advantage of the hike.

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Oct 30 2008 21:09 utc | 13

Nice elderly lady I know got spooked, hearing recent news, and withdrew five figures from her friendly Swiss bank so as to put it in a local safe deposit box in cash. Trying to cash a check in town, she became a one-woman run on the bank; they didn’t have the money there, of course, and took a couple days to scrape it up while she called up all her million friends. It wouldn’t take much to fuck the US up if it’s strategic rivals cared to.

Posted by: …—… | Oct 30 2008 21:43 utc | 14

its

Posted by: …—… | Oct 30 2008 21:48 utc | 15

Rural Bucks UK: life is no different. Traffic as heavy as last year. Shops as busy. House price slump continues – but that started long before the kredit krunch. Petrol and diesel cheaper. Everybody as cheerful. No obvious unemployment, no soup kitchens, no doom and gloom. It’s all media hype – the krisis is in the imaginations of the newspaper publishers and the TV pundits who need doom and gloom to make a living. Don’t let ’em get you down. There is no krisis. Apocollapse has not come – and won’t. Give over whingeing and enjoy life.

Posted by: Kelso | Oct 30 2008 22:06 utc | 16

All the new golf courses, and old ones, are feeling the pinch. I went to play at a course a month prior that would have been crowded five years ago and it was a ghost town. The course was in terrible shape. The clubhouse needed painting.
The husband of the Director of our children’s school works as the Head Super at a local private golf course and last week had to let practically his entire staff go. He’s taking a mental health vacation this week. At least he has a conscience.
Memberships are way down across the board, and those who had been living the over-extended lifestyle (which is a lot of them at these private clubs) the past decade, or more, are not paying their dues, so the courses, or the management companies who run them, are being forced to cut costs everywhere.
It will be interesting to see what happens to these courses if the clubs are forced to close their doors. Hangouts for teenagers to go party? Public Parks?

Posted by: Obamageddon | Oct 30 2008 22:20 utc | 17

the situation on the fround here is that bad situations are getting worse – as you know i work with a number of different communities – the foyerd’hebergement(chelter for homeless men & women) are fulll, always full, the pathologies are worse because they are being refused hospitalisation, many immigrants but who stay less time because they are under risk because they do not have papers, the level of addiction – the degree & ampleur is a lot more profound, in th
in my work across the board the situation is much much worse – funding etc
in the town itself lots of small busineeses in the city going down
(the photo marvelous for me but then i find the melancholy of boats & harbours & ports something of beauty)
& waldo, i myself am a maximalist – i will not be satisfied until the bush administration is hanging by their necks in the hague & for all the speculators of america to be sent to clean the streets & houses of haiti & el salvador for the rest of their wretched lives

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Oct 30 2008 22:38 utc | 18

Kelso said:
Rural Bucks UK: life is no different. … It’s all media hype – the krisis is in the imaginations of the newspaper publishers and the TV pundits who need doom and gloom to make a living….Give over whingeing and enjoy life.
—
Here in Wales I can say that it is much the same…there is no way you could tell anything at all had happened except the increase in bus & train fare (that was the oil spike), perhaps a bit of food price inflation, and of course the housing slump.
Clearly you’d have to be a total fool – an ignoramus of the highest order with his head stuck far, far up his own arse to think that it was all just a ploy by the media. And yet that’s the Great British way these days, not to give a flying f about anything except complaining about Poles, getting completely pissed, and going on witchhunts at the BBC.
Anyways, no…nothing to worry about here! So far, to borrow Kunstler’s tsunami metaphor, here in Blighty we’re clambering over the rocks, marvelling at all the pretty shells revealed by that jolly-gosh surprising low tide, blissfully unaware of the liquid doom that has been unleashed over the horizon.

Posted by: Ben | Oct 31 2008 1:06 utc | 19

Posted by: Ben | Oct 31 2008 1:07 utc | 20

Here in So Cal , things are slowing down a bit, but not too bad. Local refurbished busineses remain empty, but for the most part things seem ok. Bars and eating places near the beach seem fairly busy all week, but maybe they’re imune because of their location. Gas prices are down, for now. We’ll see if that holds after the election. Didn’t watch obama’s infomercial. When he backed the bailout, that told me much of what i needed to know. If he’s elected, I won’t be holding my breath for change to take place. FDR didn’t run as a progressive, but when elected, reality changed his course of action, so, maybe obama will be more than a corporate hack. We’ll see.

Posted by: ben | Oct 31 2008 2:54 utc | 21

I live in Brisbane, Australia.
The effects of the crises will show in 6-12 months…They may be different around the globe and will be harder for some then for others.
We had some money in superannuation fond and we already lost few thousands. Yesterday friend told me that she had about $160 000 and now she had around $60 000.It’s visible…
For now here in Australia people/investors who had their money invested in mortgage funds can’t get their money because it is FROZEN. Some people actually live on that money but treasurer promised they can get DOL if they are experiencing hardship…my God!
It was on TV how a lot of orders for luxury yachts are canceled (I could cry for it) and some people will lose jobs…They also say on TV that people are not that much eating outside anymore but prefer to it at home (if that means cooking there is something good to come from this crises)…All though I spotted ON WEDNESDAY while I was driving through the city that all restaurants were full of people.
Looks like people here do not believe in crises that much…I do not see house prices falling sharply if anything…
I spent 4 days on Internet trying to book for 2 nights (30 and 31 of December) around this tourist area …I looked for the price of $300 per night for at least 1 bedroom apartment. Everything was either already booked or they asked for minimum 5-7 nights…And this is October…talking about crises…

Posted by: vbo | Oct 31 2008 3:02 utc | 22

Here its only started to physically show in the last 2 months. For Sale signs used to be up for only a couple of weeks, suddenly they aren’t coming down. There are a few more vehicles sporting For Sale signs but not in dramatic numbers. Just in the past 2 weeks condo projects have been cancelled or abandoned, a concrete company has parked 30 of its trucks-pulled the plates and cancelled the insurance. But many other sites remain very active.
My architectural, engineering and construction collegues have been watching the US situation for more than a year, and realizing it would hit here sooner or later. Even then we figured the condo market had been saturated. Simple demographics: BC is 2-1/2 times the size of California but with only a 10th of the population. How many $750,000 condos can you sell into that market?
I recently completed a maintenance facility for one of the local container terminals (they have really big Tonka toys) so have become very fascinated by the container shipping business and watch the daily harbour traffic. This is a terminal city:here the railroads meet the Pacific and we’re 28 hours closer than Long Beach. The container lines are still on their normal schedules, but number of cans on board is down a bit. But that is somewhat seasonal. They’stacked high in August/Sept/into October with Christmas stock, then it tapers off. I’ve seen the same pattern over the past several years, so can’t read that much into yet.
Bulk cargo seems to still be steady. The ships arrive empty/in ballast and load here with grain, fertilizers, coal, etc.
On the other hand, we haven’t been selling much lumber into the States the past 18 months, and don’t expect to for several more years. Small, timber resource based communities, have been suffering for quite a while.
Our other big industry, tourism, is also tightening up. Not going to be that many ski passes sold at Whistler this year.
There is still the general feeling that we are somewhat isolated or protected from the crisis. Unfortunately, that feeling will change over the next few months. We are all going to feel the pain.

Posted by: Allen/Vancouver | Oct 31 2008 3:14 utc | 23

Here in Buffalo, NY things pretty much the same as always. Most of Upstate NY missed the various bubbles over the last twenty or so years and things have maintained a less inflated/false value. I am concerned about the Chevy engine plant, Ford body stamping plant and Dunlop Tire here as these are the last bastions of good union wages in the area.
Rochester was hit hard a along time ago by Kodak fumbling and now digitization of photography. (I am a photographic artist and teach). Don’t know about Xerox at this point, haven’t heard much.
I am waiting to see who Obomba hires as AG to see if the fucker is anywhere serious about “change”. If we get a good prosecutor with a background in RICO prosecutions as AG then there might be a chance, but I doubt we will see any meaningful criminal investigations and prosecutions.
Buzz Meeks

Posted by: Buzz Meeks | Oct 31 2008 3:30 utc | 24

Get your daily ship fix here.

Posted by: biklett | Oct 31 2008 4:01 utc | 25

California is cutting back irrigation water by 85% next year, in the news today, so there will be a premium on fresh produce, and that’s good, build local farm coops and community farmer’s markets. Those who went through the 70’s oil crisis can tell their kids about wholesale food coops, pooling your monthly orders, meeting in a local hall to divide everything up, and party a bit. We anticipated a slowdown and socked in our fire wood, grains and beans in August, so now we have food and heat for about $5 a day, but the utility bills for water and power are killing us, and property taxes went UP! States are preparing a carbon-credit regime, unfortunately timed with likely Obama’s win. Democrats will get branded with a force-multiplier on food and energy. Even with giant wind, solar and wave energy projects trying to break ground, their price structure is at a premium and relies on heavy subsidies. “Death spiral” is probably inaccurate, the banks, brokers and insurance companies, even auto/loans and defense contractors are being bailed out, government is the only remaining growth industry, although they cut back on champagne lunches. And the poor are being squashed, tent cities being evicted and long soup lines. That’s the same as it ever was. What matters is the middle class, and they’re tapped out, and upside down, and underwater. California agriculture like residential/commercial construction are both gone in the crapper for a decade. SOW, does anyone remember those old two-hole outhouses back in the day? There’s an eponym for USA, … 2HC!

Posted by: Turd Blossom | Oct 31 2008 4:09 utc | 26

Some more thoughts on The Demise of American Exceptionalism. blogwhoring this once, trying this out, not sure where its going. So.

Posted by: anna missed | Oct 31 2008 5:04 utc | 27

Try again

Posted by: anna missed | Oct 31 2008 5:07 utc | 28

Biklett @ 26, Thanks for the link. We receive a couple of COSCO ships each week.

Posted by: Allen/Vancouver | Oct 31 2008 5:10 utc | 29

One of my clients sells collectibles on the Internet. They have a steady business that peaks around Valentine’s Day and during the holiday season. Their market is the Eastern US and other pockets of wealth in the US.
This year they see a slight decline in the number of orders but more significant is that the orders are for less expensive products, by about some 30%.
So US middle and upper middle class are still spending but not spending as much.
Locally I agree with Allen, this has been a hot real estate market but not overloaded as the US has been. Sales are slowing. Vancouver and its environs are a destination market and will probably continue to be so, with the 2010 Winter Olympics coming in just over a year.
As for trends in Canada, oil at $30 a barrel is apparently enough incentive for the northern oil sands to continue to be extracted industrially and sold to the US, and Canada still exports water, electricity, wood, coal and minerals.
in my uninformed opinion, the decline in those prices does not mean those commodities will not be sold.
I think Canada and the provinces should tax more heavily these resources since they are needed in the world.
Just like New York and Jersey City give major tax breaks to the Wall Street Corporations to place their offices there, the province of British Columbia gives subsidies to forest products (lumber i.e wood) corporations, mining companies, etc. to do business here.
Does it not make sense that if non-Canadian companies, who take their profits away from here, and bring their high-paid employees here rather than hiring locally, should pay some tax for the privilege of working and taking local resources.
Don’t mean to hijack the thread. There was a news article stating that containers from Asia which unload their cargo here are reloaded with pulp and sent back to China.
Since China was having problems gaining letters of credit to guarantee payment, those containers could not be refilled with pulp (wood sawdust I think, useful for making paper, cardboard and artificial wood) to send back to China.
So the pulp was stocking up in Vancouver.
That news is a couple of weeks old, I have not seen reports about other ports being stuck with unshipped cargo due to lack of letters of credit.

Posted by: jonku | Oct 31 2008 9:37 utc | 30

Another thing I noticed here in Denmark about a month or two ago is empty shelves in the local supermarket, nothing serious mind you, it’s not the staples but certain canned and bottled condiments, like canned asparagus, certain olives and things like that — at the moment it’s a half-dozen, 10 items that have a little sign saying “our supplier is unable to deliver this item at the moment”.
I figure that it’s a sort of small canary sort of sign — it makes me thing of what I’ve read about when the first signs of the economic disaster in the Weimar Republic — it was in the cities first and people went out into the countryside and used useless money to buy stuff from the unsuspecting farm folks.
I’ve also heard in the news that auction houses here are doing a grand business right now, because people are trying to unload their luxury items and turn them into cash.

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Oct 31 2008 9:53 utc | 31

In Australia interest rates were cut by 1% and the government announced some big increases in the grand first homeowners recieve to buy a house or a unit. In Sydney property prices have been flat to falling for the last 4 years, but now with these two goodies buyers for real estate has actually picked up. I am hoping to sell my place over the next few months while Australia stays in denial a little bit longer thinking that China will pull us out of this mess. I’m expecting to get a price just below the peak back in 2003. I expect Australian property prices to take a big dive as the crisis hits. In terms of income to property price, ours are the highest in the world and can’t be maintained if there is a serious recession.
Other than that I work at the head office of one of Australia’s biggest retailers. They are telling us that conditions in retail are the toughest they have ever seen. The last recession here was in 1991, so none of the current crop of managers have really seen real bad times. At the moment all projects are still full steam ahead, nothing being cancelled yet. But I am wondering. I suspect that the people at the top are working on some plans to cut staff and expenses quickly if it comes to it. Obviously there is no talk about that.
The consistent period of growth has made almost everyone quite comfortable about working as contractors instead of permanents so they’re everywhere now. If companies do start to downsize its going to be very easy for them to get rid of tens of thousands of high paid contractors at the drop of a hat. Things could get ugly quick if downsizing hits hard over here. Combine that with staggerring mortgages (median house prices in Sydney is $500,0000) which are simply unpaybale if one partner is out of work, let alone two. People have almost forgotten that you can have a recession.

Posted by: swio | Oct 31 2008 10:23 utc | 32

One other thing. I work in IT and have watched the trend of increased outsourcing to India develop over the last few years. There are armies of Indian IT workers in my organisation. It occurred to me that the Indian contractors are such a part of things now that they often know more about my organisations IT systems than the local workers which brings me to my point. One of the easiest ways to reduce costs quickly might be to fire local workers in Australia (or any other western country) and hire more sub-contrators in India to replace them. It would only be possible in situations where the Indian contractors know the systems back to front, so a company could risk losing the local knowledeg, but in my experience this situation is becoming pretty common. Certainly in my company it will soon be possible for management to take this approach. Could create a super whammy in high tech employment in western countries.
b,
Perhaps its worth pondering how downsizing will operate in a highly globalised world where work can be moved across the world literally overnight in some cases. We have never had a truly global and heavy recession during the current period of international movement of highly paid service jobs. Could downsizing be replaced with very rapid recession induced cost-shifting to low wage countries with corresponding effects and high paid jobs (and their corresponding flow on effects) in advanced countries?

Posted by: swio | Oct 31 2008 10:43 utc | 33

In the US midwest, construction contracts that are in the pipeline are being bid by contractors at no profit. To keep their crews busy. In Chicago, construction has been halted on the much-awaited Spire designed by Calatrava.

Posted by: Browning | Oct 31 2008 11:48 utc | 34

One more observation from here in Wales that agrees with some of the concerns above: empty shelves in supermarkets. Particularly vegetables. And, due to the local councils and university putting a great deal of cash into Icelandic banks, cuts are being considered, e.g. turning off streetlamps.
[Tiny rant: energy costs went up, government chickened out of putting on a windfall tax, and look at the energy company profits. more or less the biggest ever. surprise surprise. then again, they’ve buoyed up the markets a bit which is pleasant enough. i’d prefer to see rates come down!]

Posted by: Ben | Oct 31 2008 12:28 utc | 35

Just look in your spam filter: remember when you used to be flooded with ads for low-interest loans, no questions asked, just fill out the form and buy your dream home?
But otherwise life on the ground here in Germany’s Middle Rhine Valley has not changed noticeably.

Posted by: ralphieboy | Oct 31 2008 13:18 utc | 36

empty shelves in supermarkets.
—-
My husband and I noticed this in smaller supermarkets…but then we thought maybe we are just panicking. Because we saw totally empty supermarkets and closed grocery shops once in our lives and are shit scared to experience it again. And here in Australia, on this big island there is no neighbors close and smugglers would not be able to form black market…if everything stops to function…Well I have no idea how if God forbid crises grow to that extend this country would operate at all on any level. Back in Serbia we were able to form parallel world (street order) once when state and usual means stopped to function…but then we had a luxury to operate with Germans marks…not possible in this crises. Probably life it self will create what’s needed for survival.
Maybe I am just panicking to much but I am amazed how people try to ignore this elephant in the room thinking that it will go away before it brakes everything…But for me mathematic is a killer…We are talking trillions and billions here…and as one journalist rightly asked “ Where on Earth they are coming from?”…

Posted by: vbo | Oct 31 2008 13:59 utc | 37

vbo@37,
please keep us posted. And I can tell you are reviewing your circumstances with a cold hard eye. Also, please assist your neighbors & community as a matter of equal priority

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Oct 31 2008 14:33 utc | 38

Sobering observations, all.
In the Montana college town where i live–this “liberal bubble” of urbanity in a sparsely populated, conservative rural state–willful and stubborn denial continues.
for sale signs are more prevalent and stay up longer, but retiring boomers are still snatching up condos, and prices haven’t fallen far enough for median income montanans to be able afford to buy in to our market.
like ‘giap, i work in a homeless shelter, and our numbers are way up this year. at the local food bank, keeping the staples on the shelves is getting harder. a lot of people who use to donate food are not clients. there are a bunch of non-profits in this town; all are struggling.
*
there’s a term that describes the mental state of movie goers when they are watching a film: suspension of disbelief. it appears the same applies to national elections in this country.
i don’t think i’ve ever been more discouraged in my entire life. the bailout is being used for bonuses and acquisitions while Joe the Plummer discusses record deals and book deals with his publicist.
and then there’s the embodiment of hope and his infomercial and that tired call that the toddler-mentality of amerika can change the world. god, i am so fucking sick of us. will we ever learn?

Posted by: Lizard | Oct 31 2008 15:26 utc | 39

whoops, should read are now clients.

Posted by: Lizard | Oct 31 2008 15:28 utc | 40

I did pay more attention to the state of the shelves during my most recent trip to the discout supermarket and noticed that the low-price specials offers were almost all sold out, which indicates that shoppers are counting their pennies even more carefully.

Posted by: ralphieboy | Oct 31 2008 17:44 utc | 41

i don’t think i’ve ever been more discouraged in my entire life. the bailout is being used for bonuses and acquisitions while Joe the Plummer discusses record deals and book deals with his publicist.

Ouch…USA (but we are not far away) has fallen sooo bloody LOW…So low that even USA citizens (with grain of brain) can’t take it seriously any more…
Looks like the whole world is leaded by a blind USA…to the abyss…

Posted by: vbo | Nov 1 2008 0:03 utc | 42

East TN, an area heavily dependent on tourism. A lot of investment real estate for sale–very few actual sales. Numerous foreclosures on investment houses and condos, or the owners move in rather than continue to rent them out because they can’t find a buyer.
New construction of investment property has slowed tremendously, resulting in high unemployment among skilled labor like plumbers, electricians and general contractors.
Numerous office buildings and store fronts with “For Lease” signs that have been sitting empty for months.
I spend about 30-50% more for food than I did 2 years ago.
Tourism was down slightly this summer, but not as much as I expected, and not enough to close many of the businesses in the area.
As others have said, local food banks and homeless ministries are struggling to keep up with demand and are increasingly urgent in their requests for support.
I see more pedestrians and people on bicycles around town than I used to.

Posted by: Chemmett | Nov 1 2008 3:25 utc | 43

Hi Jonku @ 30,
Re oil sands, I thought $40+/barrel was their break even point, and that was for established operations. To bring new stuff online requires at least $60/barrel at a settled currency exchange rate. Those conditions are somewhat elusive right now. So is Sarah Palin’s trans canada pipeline.
Couldn’t we have been offered Micheal Palin as a VP candidate?
Happy Holloween.

Posted by: Allen/Vancouver | Nov 1 2008 5:19 utc | 44

This afternoon I was driving same route to the city through commercial area where a lot of big company names have their huge stores, warehouses and also few of car dealerships are there…At first it caught my attention that there is a sign FOR SALE in front of quite a big printing company where my son in law used to work. Then I started to pay attention a little bit more and I was suddenly scared when I realized that there are about 10 for sale/for lease signs in front of those huge business and stores. And I am talking about part of the street about 4-5 km long. WTF??? These were not there yesterday…Car dealers yard for sale , huge hardware store…hard to believe…Even adult shops are closing recently…I ‘ve seen few closed.

Posted by: vbo | Nov 1 2008 9:29 utc | 45

Oh yes I forgot to mention that two big city projects are canceled. First this one and now this one

Posted by: vbo | Nov 1 2008 11:41 utc | 46

Southern California is no longer my area but this 12 minute video Foreclosure Alley is a pretty stark scene of desperation, not to mention the waste.

Posted by: Hamburger | Nov 1 2008 12:57 utc | 47

Suburban New York, Long Island to be specific …
“For sale” signs on houses don’t seem much more numerous than in the last couple years. In some cases, however, that might be because people who aren’t forced to sell are keeping their houses off the market until prices recover. “Sold” signs are a rare sight. New housing construction (even during the boom years constrained by lack of land) has pretty much vanished, and the crowds of Mexican and Salvadoran men who gather at certain locations looking for day work in construction and landscaping have gotten larger and more desperate – they absolutely swarm any contractor’s truck that pulls up. Some industrial and retail construction is ongoing, though I suspect this mostly represents completion of projects that were in the pipeline when conditions deteriorated.
Speaking of retail, the number of vacancies seems to be on the rise. Car dealers in particular are especially hard-hit. It’s not uncommon to see vacant lots being used to store unsold vehicle inventory. Lastly, as someone who commutes by train to Manhattan, I haven’t yet noticed any declines in ridership levels. Trains that were cattle trains a couple years ago remain so today.

Posted by: Peter | Nov 1 2008 13:19 utc | 48

On the way to the park to take a walk with the family, a development about 20% completed had a new sign advertizing “Foreclosed Homes.” WTF? It’s now become a selling point for unfinished subdivisions. I’m sure the current residents who are not yet in foreclosure are happy about the new sign.
For the second week in a row, the traffic at Whole Foods has been greatly diminished. We thought the first week may have been an anomoly because it had rained here for the first time in a long time, but this past week was gorgeous weather, and the store was disturbingly empty. Also, they aren’t putting out the samples, I guess in an effort to cut costs.
I would be interested to know what the effect has been on air travel. What a lovely day it will be when those filthy polluting buses with wings no longer blight the beautiful sky.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Nov 1 2008 19:11 utc | 49

I live in Hong Kong.
Several well-known businesses have recently gone into receiver-ship: URight (a clothes chain) and Tai Lin (a home electronics chain since after WWII), Smart Union (toy manufacturer)
Reports on the news that container truck drivers have much less business going from Guangdong to the container port at Kwai Chung.
MASSIVE lay-offs in the factories of Guangdong, leading to protests by workers to receive at least SOME back-wages (owners shut the gates owing many workers as much as a months wages). Some local governments have given a bit of $ so the workers can eat or try to travel back home.
Protests by owners of Lehman “mini-bonds” who say that they were duped into buying these investments – one protest over the weekend ended up w/ a small scrum.
Some of my neighbors work in the toy business (sourcing from China to sell to toy stores in Europe and the USA) and they say that orders are WAY down.

Posted by: sk-reader | Nov 3 2008 2:13 utc | 50

“For Sale” signs just stay up.
local school budgets slashed because they know property taxes will take a hit with all the foreclosures. Teacher training taking big hits this year.

Posted by: citizen | Nov 3 2008 2:58 utc | 51

Subprime Learning: Positive and Negative Lessons of the Japanese Bubble for Americans
Hmm, I’ve seen the picture with the boats before …

Posted by: Philippe | Dec 1 2008 13:09 utc | 52

Good catch Philippe! And the rest of the pics are familiar from LOLFed. 🙂

Posted by: Alamet | Dec 1 2008 20:52 utc | 53

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