As I haven’t followed the Iceland banking story with much diligence, the following is naturally incomplete. Please add to it in comments.
Iceland is in the news big time because that founding member of NATO asked Russia to lend it billions to keep its state running. Writes the FT:
Iceland expressed disappointment yesterday that western allies had failed to provide support to help ease the country’s financial crisis, forcing it to turn to Russia for a €4bn loan.
"We have not received the kind of support that we were requesting from our friends," said Geir Haarde, prime minister. "So in a situation like that one has to look for new friends."
Expect a lot of pressure on Iceland by its ‘friends’ to shun the Russian loan deal and to turn over its sovereignty to the IMF. Geir Haarde an his compatriots will resist such a move.
In Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising, a fiction describing a NATO-Warsaw Pact war, the Russians deploy a division of paratroopers to occupy the island and lose it a few weeks later. Now some chump change might achieve better strategic results. Wouldn’t Iceland be the perfect place for a Russian ‘missile defense’ system? If the deal happens it will be the first obvious geostrategic consequence of the current breakdown. There will be many more.
The whole Iceland story is a mixture of economic mismanagement and possibly criminal energy. A small country with some 300,000 inhabitants, the most developed one on this planet according to the UN, grew three local banks within less than 20 years to a $100 billion of debt industry with likely somewhat less in assets. Two of these banks are now under regulator control and may get closed down.
There are long standing rumors that these banks were fed with lots of shady money from Russian oligarchs. Double digit inflation and interest rates attracted additional money from abroad. That money was used to finance real estate deals in London and to buy up various retail chains in northern Europe in not so profitable deals.
Additionally currency speculation from the outside led to a sharp devaluation of the Iceland Króna. The result is a country which is now overwhelmed with the consequences of the downturn.
Like hedge funds, Iceland’s banks borrowed short term and invested long term. With short term lending freezing up, that business model is no longer profitable. Time to go back to fishing.
Brad Setser points out that Dubai is comparable to Iceland in that short term debt is used to finance longterm investment. Illiquid, immobile investment in form of sky scrapers and luxury apartments in Dubai’s case. Will Russia jump in when Dubai gets into trouble? Iran?