It was a huge mistake to allow ethiopia to invade somalia, ever since they invaded that country they have committed genocide, rape and other atrocities.
The Bush administration should have worked with the courts and use their influenece to empower the moderates within the courts.

Posted by: Mark | Oct 15 2008 20:02 utc | 3

b real,
as you know, this was inevitable but I thought it would take a little longer.
DID@4,
I hear you loud & clear but if Obama does right for America, all will benefit.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Oct 15 2008 23:27 utc | 5

Ethiopia’s Zenawi Shuns Timetable for Somalia Pullout (Update1)

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi rejected opposition calls to announce a timetable for the withdrawal of his country’s troops from neighboring Somalia.
“It would not be correct to state that we will leave on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday,” Zenawi told parliament in the capital, Addis Ababa, today. “We will continue to maintain our support and our presence” while Somalia leaders seek a negotiated settlement to the conflict, he said.
…
Zenawi, in his speech, acknowledged that diplomatic efforts to strengthen the transitional administration by allying it with moderate Islamists, clan leaders and businessmen have failed.
“There is no political readiness on the part of Somali leaders,” he said. “However, if this readiness comes we will help them.”
…
Zenawi said any future Somali government wouldn’t have to be allied to Ethiopia.
“If the people of Somalia have a government, even one not positively inclined to Ethiopia, it would be better than the current situation,” he said. “Having a stable government in place in Somalia is in our national interests.”

Hmmm – So Zenawi wants to stay until their is a negotiated solution. Then he says there is no will for a negotiated solution. Then he agrees to ANY government in Somalia.
Seems like he is on the way out …

Posted by: b | Oct 16 2008 12:55 utc | 7

generally speaking, ISN is overall a worthless source of info & analysis on what’s going on in the HOA. i haven’t explored what their motivations may be, but over the years their dispatches have usually been incomplete, if not downright incorrect. that link has a bit of both.
for instance, yusuf & nur adde were called to addis ababa to resolve their internal disputes, which threatened (again) to incapacitate the TFG. the meetings were not, as ISN claims, to meet w/ the opposition on peace discussions. until recently, yusuf’s primary supporter was the ethiopian govt. nur adde was installed at the demand of the west, primarily the u.s., and has never been popular w/ the ethiopian govt or officers in the occupation forces. the ethiopians wanted to control somalia by instituting a govt modeled on clan structures rather than one of nationalist unity. likely realizing that this is not possible through the current transitional govt personnel, the west simply wants to isolate the ‘bad muslims’ from the ‘good muslims’ & thought nur adde a neutral candidate for that role.
the article also simplifies & generalizes too much on the opposition. i’d suggest two of michael weinstein’s analyses — Ideological Diversity in Somalia’s Islamic Courts Movement and Somalia’s Islamic Courts Reach a Cross-Roads — for a better idea of the players involved.
as for the upcoming IGAD meeting in nairobi, the speculation that i’ve read tends to think that the purpose is to, yet again, create a new transitional govt. the idea that, instead, it is to pull out the current TFG in order to protect them as ethiopia withdraws, is intriguing but i find it less plausible. for one thing, the TFG has proved itself completely unworthy of any continued support. the ethiopian govt and the west have pretty much backed off on signs of support for yusuf. i think they’re ready to feed him to the dogs. but then i don’t see why the external players still think they can decide on & impose a govt on the country from outside…

Posted by: b real | Oct 16 2008 15:52 utc | 9

any ‘silence’ re a withdrawal is due to the fact that they are getting their asses kicked by a popular resistance & don’t want to give too much publicity to that, encouraging others. maybe someday we’ll find how many casualties ethiopia experienced in this occupation. if the daily reports in the somalia media can be believed, the figure has to be quite significant, esp in proportion to the total deployment. but good luck trying to get that info out of addis ababa.
meles is not easy to figure out. he & the spokespersons in his regime tell the most outrageous falsehoods, which the western media rarely challenge b/c he’s a protected dictator who compliantly does his master’s bidding in many regards. but he’s always made noises that he’s not happy about sending troops out to the slaughter w/ only the minimum of int’l support. it’s costing him at home now, which is why the chatter about actually pulling out for good has increased in the past month or so. what is in the works is hard to guage. b mentioned the small increase in the size of the AMISOM forces. i was under the impression, largely due to the absence of any coverage to the contrary, that this was just part of a troop rotation. at least on the part of the UPDF. and i pointed out in a link above on the talk of amassing other african forces to enter somalia. the UN most likely will not put forces into somalia any time soon – ban ki moon has made that clear just recently.
a major demand of the somali resistance is that ethiopia completely pull out of somalia. this is a sticking point in the djibouti agreement talks, which the compromised wing of the ARS are engaged in. ethiopia had been requiring that other forces come to somalia before their forces vacate.
so some of this talk of additional forces may be related to that – giving the appearance that efforts are being made to accede to some of the oppositions demands. i just piecing together fragments of news reports & coverage on this. have yet to see any good analysis or commentary on how it all fits together.
it’s no secret that the u.s. & ethiopia were never really committed to stabilising somalia – only sowing destabilisation. if we judge this chapter of the GWOT by that latter objective, then it is possible to declare ‘mission accomplished’ and pull back a little & reap the payoff (‘breeding grounds’, hardline political islamism, int’l terrorism, blah blah blah). some media reports are starting to pick up on the ‘self-fulfilling’ aspects of the GWOT. perhaps if they connect a complete enough set of dots, some real progress can be attempted.

Posted by: b real | Oct 16 2008 17:32 utc | 11

http://etrecycler.blogspot.com/2008/10/troop-withdrawal-art-form.html
Troop Withdrawal — An Art Form
The misadventures of Ethiopian leaders in neighboring Somalia has turned into a soap opera. ‘Invitation’ by the handpicked Somali leaders came only after Ethiopian troops crossed the borders. And beginning in 2006 the news was “we will withdraw our forces within a few weeks”; “Ethiopia threats to withdraw as it is our irrevocable position”; or “Ethiopia begins to withdraw.”
Two years later no troops have been withdrawn. Today “Ethiopia Rejects Somalia Withdrawal Timetable but it will withdraw [stay tuned],
In the following months, the time for us to take a once and final decision is approaching,” the Ethiopian Prime Minister said. “The time has come to take a final decision on the issue, in particular when our troops entered Somalia, those of us who felt our intervention was based on national security interests, then our withdrawal should also be responsible.
So why has the Ethiopian leader failed to act upon his promises? Well, first, he is not one known for keeping his promises. Second, this is a lucrative business. You threaten or shout “Terrorist”, the US relents and sends in money, World Bank releases funds, and none speak out on corruption and human rights abuses. It always works. Why change what has worked for you?
The Prime Minister now assures us “Financial Crisis To Have Little Effect On Ethiopia.” Really? Check again, Mr. Prime Minister. May be you are confusing Ethiopia with your constituency or your family fortune.
The thing is few believe what he says. Perhaps the US government and the World Bank do. In the end, he simply cannot be trusted because all he has is a quick tongue and no originality. He incessantly talks about “timetable”, “two-state solution”, “withdrawal” — all verbiage picked up from CNN. The best way to analyze official statements put out by Ethiopian rulers is, therefore, to begin with the assumption that it is a lie.
So will they or won’t they?

Posted by: Ethiopian Recycler | Oct 17 2008 15:46 utc | 13

right, jony_b_cool, and there are similar rpts throughout the country. i’ve often wondered, and perhaps ethiopianRecycler can weigh in on this, if meles might finally be forced out in a manner similar to that of haile selassie after the british journalist jonathan dimblebey’s 1973 television documentary ethiopia: the unknown famine, which exposed the wallo famine, juxtaposed against the emperor’s lavish lifestyle. times are different, of course, but the regime there continues to deny the allegations of mass starvation going on in different regions there. the scorched earth campaigns in the ogaden have drawn only limited international outrage – would the proliferation of almost-iconic photos of distended bellys finally elicit the outrage required to dethrone the ‘crime’ minister and his sycophants?

Posted by: b real | Oct 19 2008 17:07 utc | 15

i don’t have time to dig into this right now, but reports are that the compromised wing of the ARS signed the djibouti agreement
garowe online doesn’t have any copy up on it yet, but they did publish photocopies of two signed documents at
Somalia government signed ceasfire agreement with the opposition in Djibouti
the agreement calls for a ceasefire effective november 5th, which is going to prove near impossible to acutalize, seeing as how the ARS wing in djibouti doesn’t control the majority of the active militias on the ground inside somalia.
the agreement also states

4. Initial troops to restore peace and security in Mogadishu and other areas will be ready within a period of 45 days, renewable, starting 10 November 2008.
III. Relocation of Ethiopian Troops
5. Starting 21 November 2008, the Ethiopian troops will relocate from areas of the cities of Beledweyn and Mogadishu such as Towfiq, Mogadishu Stadium, pasta factory, Heyle Barise and Headquarters of the Ministry of Defense.
6. To avoid a security vacuum in the areas vacated by Ethiopian Forces, security will initially be the responsibility fo AMISOM troops with the assistance of TFG and ARS security forces, until the deployment of UN Forces.
7. The second phase of Ethiopian troop withdrawal should be completed within 120 days in accordance with the 19 August 2008 Djibouti Agreement.

“relocation” is not withdrawal, and the wording here hardly makes it clear that it calls for ethiopian forces to evacuate entirely from either mogadishu or beledweyn. the devil is in the details & it would appear to me that there are plenty of holes in here that obviously the armed wings of the ARS, the ICU, al shabaab & others will not find acceptable. it’s also difficult to imagine security forces for the TFG and ARS working collaboratively in any near-future setting.
that second phase of withdrawal (is ‘relocation’ really ‘withdrawal’?) stipulated that ethiopia would not pull out until there were suitable troops replacement, ideally from the u.n.
the language used in the august was also very ambiguous in this respect. in other words, it looks like the shiekh sharif has not gained anything of substance by signing this latest agreement on the ‘cessation of hostilities. it remains to be seen if it even gains any traction among those engaged in battle for the liberation of somalia. and it certainly doesn’t provide an excuse for ethiopia to pull out.

Posted by: b real | Oct 26 2008 18:07 utc | 17

reuters: Somali Islamists say will not observe peace deal

“Fighting will go on in Mogadishu and we shall not stop until all foreign troops leave our country,” said Sheikh Muktar Robow Abu Mansoor, a spokesman for al Shabaab.
“The Djibouti conference is useless because it was meant only to divide the Islamists,” he told a news conference in Mogadishu.
Under the ceasefire pact, Ethiopian troops should start re-locating from parts of Mogadishu and the garrison town of Baladwayne on November 21.
A “second phase” of withdrawal would be completed within three months, but the deal did not say by when all Ethiopian troops would have to have left the country.
The plan calls for a 10,000-strong security force jointly set up by the government and the opposition to fill the security vacuum left by the Ethiopian soldiers.
“Islamists fighters and government soldiers will never be put together and positioned at the bases that Ethiopian troops will leave,” Mansoor said.

that is what i expected
garowe: Ethiopia leader ‘must admit defeat’: al Shabaab

Muktar Robow “Abu Mansur,” spokesman for al Shabaab insurgents, was flanked by masked gunmen as he addressed the media in person for the first time since Ethiopian troops ousted Islamic Courts rulers from Mogadishu in December 2006.
“I say [Ethiopian Prime Minister] Meles Zenawi must admit defeat, because he found people who hide his defeat after his power was severely weakened,” Abu Mansur said.
He rejected the peace agreement signed in Djibouti between the Ethiopian-backed Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a faction of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) saying: “We will continue attacks on Ethiopian and African Union forces.”
Abu Mansur indicated that the TFG-ARS peace pact is “an agreement of lies,” citing a clause that called on Ethiopian troops to “relocate” from specific areas in Mogadishu and Beletwein cities.
“Except for places mentioned [in the Agreement], Ethiopian troops can stay at other places, right?” Abu Mansur asked.
…
A written declaration published online and signed by Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali Omar stated that the Djibouti Agreement “does not concern Islamic Courts administrators on the ground.”
The six-point declaration said the Islamic Courts fighters “will not obey implementation of the decisions” reached at the Djibouti peace talks between the TFG and the ARS opposition group.
“The [Djibouti] Agreement is intended to disgrace the integrity and principles of the Mujahideen because it was decided to combine [the forces of] the Mujahideen, the enemy of the Somali people and their puppets,” read the declaration.
Sheikh Abdulkadir, who is deputy chairman of the Islamic Courts’ executive committee, urged insurgents across Somalia to “intensify the jihad” and to “be wary of the enemy’s conspiracies.”
ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who is executive chief of the Islamic Courts, has welcomed the Djibouti Agreement and called on insurgent groups to abide by the ceasefire.
But Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Sheikh Sharif’s co-leader during the Islamists’ rise to power in mid-2006, also rejected the peace deal and vowed that the war will continue “until the last Ethiopian soldier leaves Somalia.”
Based in Eritrea, Sheikh Aweys leads a rival faction of the ARS that has refused to join the peace process and has demanded the establishment of an Islamic state following Ethiopia’s withdrawal.

and this curious commentary piece, also at garowe online, sheds a bit more light on the meeting in addis ababa that i commented on in #9 above, though i’m not quite sure how far to run w/ it
Addis Ababa Agreement superseded UN-led “Djibouti talks” between TFG and ARS-D

Unfortunately as part of the ploy to fleece and blame the Somali people, on August 25, 2008 under the umbrella of Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the top three Leaders of the Transitional Federal Institutions of Somalia (TFI) – the President, the Speaker of Parliament and the Prime Minister- signed a “plot” agreement in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This agreement is binding TFG leaders while the agreements signed in Djibouti are not.
Ethiopian leaders, probably irritated by the media reports of Somali opposition protesting over its participation in Djibouti talks, decided to terminate the process. They wanted to show one more time that Ethiopia is the most powerful stakeholder in the Somali affairs.
…
A brief analysis of the agreement reveals the following important points.
The Addis Ababa agreement has brought the Somali dossier back under the control of Ethiopia/IGAD/AU and foiled UN efforts. Despite settling the dispute between the President and the Prime Minister over governance issues, the core message of the agreement is to remind the Somalis and the international community that Ethiopia is the “sole decider” of Somalia’s future.
The agreement outlined the political agenda of the TFG until end of November or December 2008 without due consideration to expected power sharing between opposing parties and political change. The agenda includes the establishment of Benadir Administration, finalization of regional and state administrations, expeditious completion of the works of the constitution commission, enactment of electoral and party laws, national census and other means. The agreement also called the international community to put pressures including sanctions against all those who legitimately criticize and reject the Djibouti agreement which de-legitimized the struggle for the Re-Liberation of Somalia.
The agreement recognized that TFG security forces are rogue elements because of the lack of clear command and control structures after 4 years of massive civilian massacre and human rights violations. It is agreed that reorganized security forces and Benadir Administration will undertake disarmament and stabilization mission in the capital because TFG imposes itself on South and Central Somalia by force with the use of foreign forces.
Matters related to the redeployment and withdrawal of Ethiopian troops contingent with a clean action plan, to stabilization activities and capacity building, have been delegated to be discussed and agreed upon between appropriate departments of TFG and Ethiopia government. Leaders of the opposition forces like ARS-D should accept the political agenda of Ethiopia and visit Addis Ababa so that their forces can be part of the reorganized security forces of TFG. In plain language, Ethiopia refuses to accept the preposition that Somalis have the right to decide their own future among themselves.
The Addis Ababa agreement characterized the Djibouti “talks or engagement” promoted by the UN Security Council as a process initiated by the Special Representative for Somalia of the UN Secretary General. It completely turned upside down the proposed UN Secretary General comprehensive integrated plan for peace and stability in Somalia.
Lastly, the parties of Addis Ababa agreement appealed to the international community to support it through technical, financial, political support and others means in competition with Djibouti process. The latter remains an appendix to the former.

relatedly,
the east african standard: IGAD to meet over instability in Somalia as Yusuf’s term ends

IGAD heads of states and governments converge in Nairobi on Wednesday to consult with Somalia MPs over the country’s stability.
[Kenyan] Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula said there was concern over the future of Somalia, with only six months to the expiry of the term for the Transitional Federal Government headed by President Abdullahi Yusuf.
Moments after holding talks with Yusuf, Wetangula told The Standard at Panari Hotel, Nairobi, the Transitional government had failed to execute its mandate four years and six months down the line.
The minister said the Intergovernmental Authority on Development summit would discuss how to streamline governance in Somalia.
…
Meanwhile, Kenya will go ahead with its plans to train Somali police and immigration officials despite threats by insurgents to attack.
Wetangula said: “We are not going to shy away just because of threats, this is a serious issue”.
Wetangula said the training of the officers would be funded by the American and South African governments while Kenya would offer training facilities.

hmm. that is the first mention i’ve heard of south africa being involved.

Posted by: b real | Oct 28 2008 5:35 utc | 19

Isupport the way of withdrawing the troops because we need security and peace for all

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 28 2008 13:17 utc | 21

weinstein’s take – A Symbolic Agreement for Somalia: Djibouti III

The October 26 agreement contains a timetable, marking a victory for A.R.S.-D that is more symbolic than significant, and a defeat for the T.F.G., which is quickly unraveling.
The Djibouti process resulted from a shift in strategy by Washington in early 2008 in the face of the growing successes on the ground of the armed opposition to the T.F.G. and paralyzing conflicts within the T.F.G. Having discouraged negotiations between the T.F.G. and the broad and diverse Islamic Courts movement, which dominates the militant and conciliatory oppositions, Washington changed course and pressured the T.F.G. to reach out to conciliatory elements of the opposition in an attempt to isolate the militant factions.
…
According to reports pieced together by local and regional media, the third round did not begin auspiciously. When, on October 25, the A.R.S.-D delegation spotted Ethiopian officials in the meeting hall, they reportedly walked out and the session was adjourned, after which the donors funding the talks – the U.N., European Union and Western powers – intervened and brought the A.R.S.-D back (it is not clear whether the Ethiopians left the chamber). The two sides then met separately with Ould Abdallah, who pressured them to negotiate directly.
The talks hit a further snag when T.F.G. members of the joint security committee reportedly insisted that Ethiopia would not withdraw from Somalia until a proposed U.N. stabilization force was in place and the T.F.G. was strong enough to defend itself against the insurgency. The A.R.S.-D delegation reportedly responded that since the re-liberation movement controls “95 percent of Somalia,” the T.F.G.’s demands were pointless.
On October 26, the deadlock was broken through pressure exerted by the external actors, the details of which have not been reported, and the “modalities” and “joint statement” were produced, with Ethiopian withdrawal written into the former.
…
A close and critical reading of the signed documents evokes a sense of unreality and reveals that their silences are more significant than their texts.
…
The sense of unreality about the modalities document comes primarily from the fact that the most important players – the armed re-liberation groups – are not “on the boat,” which is what Sheikh Aweys meant when he said that the third round had not produced any new developments. The cease-fire announced after the first round of the Djibouti process failed to halt the fighting, and the renewal of it is unlikely to fare any better.
…
It appears that an over-taxed Addis Ababa will eventually withdraw, save face and move back to its policy of playing off Somali factions against one another – a prediction made by Aweys, who insists that the occupiers be driven out of Somalia by force. The agreement leaves everything else up for grabs and radically uncertain.
…
The donor powers got their signed agreement and A.R.S.-D got its timetable, albeit an ambiguous one. The T.F.G. took a loss and now faces a round of meetings in Nairobi sponsored by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (I.G.A.D.), the regional organization for the Horn of Africa that birthed the T.F.G. in 2004. Billed as a “audit” of the transitional institutions to be attended by the government and all members of parliament, the I.G.A.D. conference could be a death knell for the T.F.G. or another symbolic display meant to keep it going as a cosmetic facade (both possibilities have been rumored in Somali and regional media).

the coverage out of nairobi on tuesday emphasized strong rebukes of the TFG by IGAD officials for failing to achieve anything resembling a govt over the course of its mandate. no mention though of what, if any, actions will follow

Posted by: b real | Oct 29 2008 4:52 utc | 23

I never really worried too much about the Somali because like Sinatra, they are are going to do it their way. Its Ethiopia and its mis-guided-ness thats the cause for concern, Ethiopia is a country that needs a reset & they need it soon.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Oct 30 2008 7:12 utc | 25

my guess is that this is happening mostly because the Ethiopian Army ranks are refusing to fight & are in near mutiny. There have been reports of a high level of desertions from the Ethiopian army. Also, there is a likelihood that portions of the resistance may see this moment as a unique opportunity to re-unify the country — in the name of securing it from future invasions.
and its certain that Ogaden separatists played a big role in harassing the Ethiopian Army from the rear. And that front is not going to go away. And the Somalians as well as Eritrea will feel compelled if not enthusiastic about teaching Ethiopia a major lesson in the Ogaden.
what this insanely stupid war has also led to is the creation (from nothing) of a strong military alliance between Eritrea, Ogaden separatists & the Somali resistance. And thats very very bad news for Ethiopia.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 3 2008 6:43 utc | 27

in addition to the militias led by al shabaab taking marka port less than 100 km south of the capital city mogadishu, ones led by the ICU are now w/i 20 km to the east and coming in from the north
from shabelle media,
UIC fighters take IDPs locale

Somalia’s Islamic courts union fighters on Wednesday took control of Elasha biyaha area between Mogadishu and Afgoi district that hosts thousands of internally displaced people, an official and witnesses said.
“They went through in here tonight, there were no government troops here,” resident man Hassan Ali told Shabelle by telephone.
Several witnesses confirmed the takeover of the IDPs vicinity, that was home to the violence effected people.

Islamic front fighters seize southern district

One of the increasingly powerful Islamic insurgent groups is advancing toward Somalia’s seaside capital, capturing lower Shabelle district without firing a shot.
The Islamic front fighters have captured Owdhegle district of lower Shabelle region on Wednesday night, one of their first seizures of territory.
“Our fighters have taken the distrocy pecefully,” said Islamic front commander in the district.
There were no government troops based in the district.
The fighters were still present Thursday.
Adado is 660 kilometers (410 miles) north of the capital.

google map of the area
meanwhile, Somali leaders in Ethiopia for the second time

The two top Somali government leaders have arrived in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, envoy confirmed to Shabelle.
Sources close to the president and the premier say that the two leaders have been called upon to arrive in Ethiopia after their divergences came out.
The president is reportedly rebuffed to sign the cabinet list submitted to him by the premier to replace quitted ministers those ally to the president.
…
It’s the second that President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime minister Nor Adde have been summoned to come to Ethiopian capital to come to an end their disagreements.
Critics blame the two leaders that it’s humiliation the two leaders to call for them like the current summons, also this matter could make inert the alleged resolve regarding the disagreements between the two transitional government leaders.

Posted by: b real | Nov 13 2008 16:50 utc | 29

something else to mention, but haven’t enough time to do more research at this time
last thursday time ran a piece on somalia, in a typical official narrative, establishment POV stuff, but one ‘graph that caught my attention in that it was new to me was this

The one encouraging development in Somalia is the emergence of Iraq-style Awakening militias made up of moderate Somalis, who have taken on al-Shabaab in street battles in recent weeks. If Ethiopian and African Union troops withdraw as expected in the next few months and Somalis increasingly have to fend for themselves, the chances are that this will grow into a full-scale conflict. Still, an Awakening would also offer Somalia’s best hope of keeping its extremists in check. Perhaps only in Somalia could the prospect of more war be a sign of hope.

now there have been only a couple reports more than a week ago of one or two skirmishes b/w ICU and al shabaab forces though, actually, the latest reports have been of at least two incidents of ICU vs ICU firefights
but what’s interesting is that i’m starting to see comments on somali forums that suggest that this ‘awakening’ — none refer to it as such — are likely the militias that sheikh sharif, of the compromised djibouti faction of the ARS, has been gathering. sharif is the one the u.s. has always seemed to be working on (mtgs w/ ranneberger, his targeting to divide the opposition, the pressures on him wrt the djibouti agreement) and only two weeks ago sharif was briefly in jowhar “holding back-to-back meetings with ICU officials, traditional elders and community leaders” where he “announced that he is stepping down as executive head of the Islamic Courts Union”
so – has the u.s. sold sheikh sharif on “Iraq-style Awakening militias”?

Posted by: b real | Nov 19 2008 6:29 utc | 31

the PM nur adde in that Q&A this morning trying to reassure someone (himself?):

Are you worried that insurgents might attack Mogadishu?
Absolutely not. Mogadishu is well protected.

news from somalia later in the day
Insurgents attack presidential compound, Ethiopia base

MOGADISHU, Somalia Nov 19 (Garowe Online) – Somalia’s Islamist rebels attacked the presidential compound and a major base for Ethiopian troops in the capital Mogadishu, Radio Garowe reported Wednesday.
At least four people were killed and 10 others wounded during the rebel attack on Villa Somalia, the heavily-guarded presidential palace in Mogadishu’s Wardhigley district.
“At least eight explosions rocked parts of Howlwadaag district and killed two people,” said witness Abdi Omar.
The warring sides used machineguns during the battle, with reports of the Ethiopian army’s artillery shelling hitting faraway districts.
…
Separately, suspected insurgents sparked a 30-minute battle in north Mogadishu’s Huriwa districts after targeting an Ethiopian army base, witnesses said.
There were no casualty reports available from the Wednesday afternoon fighting, but witnesses described fierce street combat and loud explosions.

probably only a matter of days now before mogadishu is liberated

Posted by: b real | Nov 19 2008 22:32 utc | 33

the ‘international advocacy group’ cited in that press tv article is refugees international & that field rpt which “blasted washington” is here – Somalia: Policy Overhaul Required
i didn’t think it was strong enough, and omitted far too many important details, but then i don’t have to watch what i say, as they obviously do
here’s a sample of the authors’ assessment

While the responsibility for this crisis lies first and foremost with the Somali leadership, the international community, principally the U.S. government and members of the UN Security Council, has also failed in its duty to protect the Somali people. They have failed repeatedly to take a principled engagement to solve the crisis, acknowledge the power realities on the ground, support peace negotiations without imposing external agendas, or provide independent humanitarian assistance.
…
..the speed and resolve with which piracy has been addressed by the UN Security Council underlines Somalis’ sentiment that economic interests trump humanitarian concerns. The United States swiftly and sternly condemned the pirates, and yet remains silent over egregious war crimes committed during the civil war.

hello? civil war? you’ve got to be kidding me…

The U.S. role in all this has been damaging. It has ignored evidence of the inability of the TFG to function and its illegitimacy in the eyes of the Somalis, while continuing to provide political and financial support. The U.S. has also turned a blind eye to human rights abuses being committed by all parties to the violence in south central Somalia. In particular, the failure to adequately condemn abuses committed by Ethiopian troops, in direct contravention to U.S. law governing bilateral military relationships, has undermined the ability of the U.S. to be perceived as a credible broker of peace. There is direct evidence linking the patterns of displacement to kinetic operations conducted by Ethiopian forces, and the U.S. has continuously failed to hold the Ethiopian government accountable, hiding behind “quiet diplomacy,” which has produced nothing.

there was a succint point that i thought this editorial at hiiraan online delivered in a more honest & blunt manner

we believe that the United States has a moral responsibility to help end Somalia’s saga, in part because the U.S. ignited the most recent conflict when it supported the notorious Mogadishu warlords

the refugees int’l rpt leaves that context out entirely. still, the following was an interesting revelation, info that i hadn’t come across before

While the increasing number of attacks on humanitarian workers is due to a variety of causes, there is a perception from armed opposition groups that humanitarian actors work in tandem with political actors.
…
Efforts by humanitarian agencies to distance themselves from diplomatic efforts were compromised by the co-opting of aid in the peace negotiations. Refugees International spoke with several non-governmental organizations who talked of being “highjacked” into the Djibouti process. Aid groups were being asked to participate in the political initiative as members of civil society. While some UN agencies and non-governmental organizations can still claim a certain amount of independence, the ability to deliver aid in Somalia while appearing neutral has all but disappeared.

so why even write “there is a perception from armed opposition groups that humanitarian actors work in tandem with political actors”?

Posted by: b real | Nov 20 2008 3:17 utc | 35

rpts of internal tensions in the addis ababa regime, as well
garowe online: Ethiopia leaders divided over Somalia policy

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia Nov 20 (Garowe Online) – Ethiopian government leaders are deeply divided over policy regarding the situation in Somalia, where Ethiopian troops have helped prop up the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) since 2006.
Informed sources in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa have confidentially told Garowe Online that the policy dispute is partly due to differences between Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Seyoum Mesfin, the country’s influential foreign minister.
…
Ethiopia’s foreign minister is linked to a top general who commanded Ethiopian forces in Somalia, until he was replaced by Prime Minister Zenawi after TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf accused him of taking bribes.
In October, a conference organized in Kenya by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) was an “Ethiopian plot” to remove Yusuf from power, the sources added.
But divisions within IGAD – hostilities between rivals Ethiopia and Eritrea, tensions between Sudan and Kenya – have made the regional body an ineffective foreign policy tool, despite threats to impose sanctions on select Somali leaders.
The conference ended with IGAD leaders, including Foreign Minister Mesfin, verbally chastising the TFG leadership for failure against the rising tide of Islamic rule.
President Yusuf has since declared that Ethiopia can withdraw its armed forces from Somalia at any time and remarked that Addis Ababa can make an “independent” decision.
But Ethiopian Prime Minister Zenawi, who has been in power since 1991, is not fully supportive of the pullout initiative and fears the consequences.
Yusuf, a seasoned fighter, has refused to budge to Ethiopian pressure and is now traveling the Arab world for support, including visits to Libya and Sudan.
He remains a powerful figure inside Somalia, with a solid base support and loyal troops spread out between Puntland and Mogadishu.
Further, Ethiopian Prime Minister Zenawi suspects that Yusuf can use Darod clan ties to bolster the ongoing insurgency in Ethiopia’s Somali-inhabited Ogaden region.

Posted by: b real | Nov 20 2008 4:57 utc | 37

some stories on friday that fit in w/ #30 on the antics of yusuf’s public stmts & recent travels
mareeg online: Somali president arrives in Kenya, said holding talks with US envoy

The president of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia [TFG], Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmad, has concluded his visit to various African countries and has arrived in Nairobi a short while ago.
The president was welcomed in Nairobi by a minister from the Kenyan government and officials of the Somali government who are currently in Nairobi. The president is leading a delegation of government officials.
President Yusuf visited Sudan and Libya. Reports indicate that the president’s visit was cut short because of official matters that are awaiting him in Somalia. The president is expected to brief Somali government officials who are in Nairobi, Kenya, about his trip to various African countries.
Reporters at the hotel where the president stays have said that as soon as the president arrived at the hotel, the US ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, also came to hold talks togther.
The US envoy is said to be talking to the president about the situation in Somalia and particularly on matters pertaining to the conflict between the top government officials. The president and the US envoy might hold a press conference after their talks.

no stories yet in nairobi’s the standard or daily nation, but this rpt from somalia may indicate what that pressing meeting w/ ranneberger was about:
shabelle media: Somali president rejects Ethiopian troop’s withdrawal, 11 Ethiopians killed

Somali president Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed has publicized that Ethiopian troops will not withdraw its troops from the war torn horn of Africa country as the troops withdrawal mandate is today.
Speaking to the reporters in the Kenyan capital, Yusuf has threatened that Ethiopian troops will stay in Mogadishu until the clashes led by the Islamists insurgents stop.
“The Ethiopian troops will continue their presence in Somalia if the anti-peace elements continue attack on our troops, they failed to honor the peace pact of djibouti” Yusuf said.
He further said that he had plans on the leading of the government delegates heading top Djibouti for peace talks.
He denied reports aired by Libyan media saying that he asked the Libyan leader to replace from Djibouti into another country which he described as groundless

Posted by: b real | Nov 21 2008 16:38 utc | 39

a-ha! could this be why they sent yusuf to djibouti this w/e?
garowe online: Mogadishu mayor’s election deepens leadership divide

MOGADISHU, Somalia Nov 23 (Garowe Online) – A 69-member regional council was sworn in Sunday in Somalia’s war-torn capital, but reports from Mogadishu indicate a deepening leadership divide that threatens to destroy the Transitional Federal Government (TFG).
The new councilors were sworn in at the residence of Prime Minister Nur Adde, with Deputy PM and Information Minister Ahmed Abdisalam and other officials present.
…
Prime Minister Nur Adde said the new council is “legitimate,” adding: “I am confident that the new council will bring many changes to Banadir [region].”
Mohamed Osman “Dhagahtur” was elected Sunday evening by the Banadir Regional Council, with 50 votes helping Dhagahtur become the region’s new governor who also holds the coveted title: Mayor of Mogadishu.
Mr. Dhagahtur served as deputy mayor under the administration of Mohamed “Dheere” Omar, the ex-Mayor whose expulsion in July by Prime Minister Nur Adde triggered an ongoing political feud with President Yusuf.
Sources close to the Prime Minister’s office confidentially told Garowe Online that the councilors were “instructed” to vote for Mr. Dhagahtur, who has been the region’ s caretaker governor in recent weeks since Mohamed Dheere’s ousting.
Dhagahtur is associated with one of Mogadishu’s most notorious warlords-turned-parliamentarian, MP Muse Sudi Yalahow, with informed sources describing him as one of Yalahow’s militia commanders.
Mohamed Dheere, a former warlord allied to President Yusuf, rejected the new Banadir Regional Council and vowed not to recognize the new mayor.
Speaking to reporters at his Mogadishu home, the ex-Mayor said the new council was “illegal” because Prime Minister Nur Adde’s term has expired.
“Last night [Saturday] was the end of Nur Adde’s term,” Mohamed Dheere said, while accusing the Prime Minister of mismanaging US$90,000 the UN donated towards the establishment of a regional government for Banadir.
He also rejected the division of seats in the new council using the 4.5 Formula, saying that such distribution of power is “unfair” to the local population.
The Mogadishu mayor’s election, which was organized and hosted by Prime Minister Nur Adde, is likely to deepen divisions with President Yusuf.

Posted by: b real | Nov 24 2008 6:33 utc | 41

funny how, once the new banadir regional council was sworn in at nur adde’s home, the green light was given to clear this strange situation up
daily nation: Stranded Somali MPs to go home

A deal has been struck enabling more than 100 Somali MPs who have been stranded in Kenya for the last month to start returning home from Tuesday.
Foreign Affairs minister Moses Wetang’ula met the 145 MPs, including President Abdullahi Yusuf, at a Nairobi hotel where the agreement was reached.
The MPs have been stranded in Nairobi since the end of an Igad conference after organisers failed to pay for their air travel to Somalia, meals and accommodation.
Somali Transitional Federal Government first deputy Speaker Mohamed Omar said the MPs will be given a one-month allowance for the time they have been stuck in the country.
“The allowances will be paid by UNDP while other donors will provide five flights on Tuesday and Wednesday,” he said.
Yesterday, the MPs showed the Nation invitation letters detailing the European Commission’s willingness to meet “costs related to air and ground transport, accommodation” and other expenses.
The news of the MPs’ departure coincided with the establishment of a local authority in Mogadishu on Sunday in line with a regional leaders’ directive aimed at restoring peace to that country.

and, unrelated
new vision: Uganda sends fresh troops to Somalia

UGANDA has replaced its 1,700 troops in Somalia with a new contingent, the third to deploy since the first Ugandan peacekeepers landed there about two years ago.
…
However, overall nine Ugandans and one Burundian died, said [AMISOM spokesman Maj.] Bahoku-Barigye.

Posted by: b real | Nov 25 2008 6:16 utc | 43

shabelle media: Islamists faction says Djibouti agreement to worsen crisis in Somalia

The faction of the Union of Islamic Courts [UIC] led by Dr Omar Iman, has described the agreement signed by the Transitional Federal Government of Somali [ARS] and the Djibouti faction of Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia [ARS], as null and void.
The spokesman of the UIC faction, Sheikh Ismail Haji Adow, described the agreement as move aimed at worsening the current situation in the country, adding that 275 opposition MPs to be included in the TFG was aimed to cause problem to the Somali people.
The spokesman said if the ARS faction joins the TFG parliament, then the UIC faction will treat it just the like the government.

believe this next one only when it happens – could just be a tactic to scare yusuf into working w/ nur adde
voa: Ethiopia to Withdraw Troops From Somalia by Year End

Ethiopia has sent a letter to the United Nations and the African Union saying it will withdraw its forces from positions inside Somalia by the end of December. African and western diplomats confirmed to VOA the letter was delivered several days ago.
…
The letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and African Union Commission Chairman Jean Ping announcing the intent to withdraw was sent after Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin publicly warned Somalia’s feuding president and prime minister to patch up their differences or be left alone to fight among themselves.
…
..Ping told reporters Wednesday he has received assurances from Ethiopia that they will not completely abandon Somalia, and will remain on the border, poised to return if conditions deteriorate.
“In spite of withdrawal of the Ethiopians, they will remain committed, just in the other side of the border, and they will intervene, and the African troops will remain there. The AMISOM will remain there and we’ll continue to ask strengthening of AMISOM by asking new troops and also financial assistance,” he said.
Ping said he is preparing for a number of possible scenarios to protect Somalia and the remaining peacekeepers when Ethiopia pulls out. But he expressed hope the Ethiopians could be persuaded to postpone their withdrawal if Somalia’s leaders settle their internal dispute.
“This depends on the behavior of the Transitional Government of Somalia,” Ping said. We hope they will understand they are there to help the country to help them and they should stop quarreling… So we hope that this will be the case and then we can continue this operation in Somalia.”

Posted by: b real | Nov 28 2008 6:41 utc | 45

horseed media: More opposition to the Djibouti deal

Sheikh Yusuf Sheikh Abdi the islamist Deputy Governor of central regions of Somalia, fiercely refused to support the new power sharing deal which is reached in Djibouti by the Somali interim government and the opposition group.
Sheikh Yusuf who is currently in Jalalaqsi district of Hiiraan region, contacted Horseed Media by phone. The deputry governor called the people not to support the Djibouti power sharing deal.
He said the term of the government is almost ending and that there is no reason to negotiate with the Transitional federal Government at this moment.

shabelle media: Somali president condemns Djibouti peace talks

Somali president has condemned Djibouti peace talks according to an interview with Alajeera on Sunday.
Somali president Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed described the power sharing deal that the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) and the transitional federal government signed in Djibouti as a clan deal.

Posted by: b real | Dec 1 2008 5:54 utc | 47

voa: Ethiopia to Delay Troop Pullout From Somalia

Ethiopia has agreed to a brief delay in its troop pullout from Somalia to allow the international community time to organize a replacement force. VOA’s Peter Heinlein in Addis Ababa reports the African Union is issuing an urgent appeal for manpower and funding to strengthen its badly understaffed AMISOM peacekeeping mission.
…
In a letter sent to potential donors this week, [AU Peace and Security Commission chief Ramtane] Lamamra said Uganda and Burundi, the two nations that supply almost all the 3,400 AMISOM troops in Somalla, had each offered to supply an additional battalion of 850 troops. Military analysts said such a manpower surge would just about make up for the departing Ethiopian contingent of about 2,000.
AU officials said one country, Norway, has given a tentative positive response, while others promised to have an answer within a day or two.

but the AMISOM mission is still cynically refered to as that of peacekeeping, whereas the ENDF is an occupying army… how are they going to resolve that one?

An Ethiopian foreign ministry official, who asked for anonymity because he is not authorized to speak publicly, said Addis Ababa has agreed to push back its self-declared December 31 troop-withdrawal deadline by, at most, a few weeks, to allow time for the AMISOM replacements to arrive.

most probably, that official asked for anonymity b/c they do not want to be held to whatever message they’re propagating at the moment. would the u.s. actually even allow meles to withdraw? he’s talked tough before, yet at the end of the day he’s well aware of what he got himself in for. plus, supposing the ethiopians did actually pull out – how would he justify all of the casualties the ENDF took over the course of the occupation? he’ll get eaten up even by what’s left of his own supporters. but they have no intention of letting go of somalia

Ethiopia and other countries in the East Africa regional group IGAD have also expressed frustration at the failure of the transitional government’s leadership to settle internal feuds that are undermining stability in the Horn of Africa.
Last month, IGAD ordered sanctions against anyone considered an obstacle to peace. The order did not name anyone, but officials said it was clearly aimed at transitional president Abdullahi Yusuf.

we covered that above in earlier comments
meanwhile,
garowe online: Government forces clash in Mogadishu, 2 killed

Witnesses in Mogadishu told Puntland-based Radio Garowe that the fighting started after soldiers guarding the presidential compound Villa Somalia “threw rocks” at a passing convoy transporting Mogadishu’s disputed mayor, Mohamed Osman “Dhagahtur.”
“Dhagahtur’s guards then opened fire,” the witness said, adding that a battle erupted immediately.
…
It was the first incidence of violence between government forces who support President Abdullahi Yusuf or Prime Minister Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein.
The Somali leaders are entangled in a bitter feud, with Yusuf refusing to recognize Mr. Dhagahtur as Mogadishu mayor and rejecting a power-sharing deal Prime Minister Nur Adde signed with an opposition faction.

layers & layers of divisions underway in somalia!

Posted by: b real | Dec 4 2008 5:31 utc | 49

new weinstein analysis up – excellent summary of what transpired in the past weeks
A Travesty in Somalia: Djibouti IV

Amid the confusion, the single discernible tendency, which was to be expected, was a reversion to clan as the driving force of political dynamics. For the first time since the rise of the Islamic Courts movement in 2006, Somali intellectuals, whom foreign analysts regularly ignore at their own peril, began discussing clan rivalries openly and often without even perfunctory deference to Somali nationalism. The re-emergence of clanist discourse was a response to a perceived shift in support by Addis Ababa and Washington, with Nairobi and Brussels in tow, from the Darod clan family, which was represented in the T.F.G. by President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, to the Hawiye clan family, which was represented by the T.F.G.’s prime minister, Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein, and the head of A.R.S.-D, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad.
The attempt by Addis Ababa and Washington to isolate and probably to depose Yusuf, who has resisted power sharing between the T.F.G. and A.R.S.-D, was taken as a sign by the Hawiye that their marginalization had ended, and by the Darod and Rahenweyne that they had become vulnerable. The pursuit of a power-sharing deal that would allow Addis Ababa the cover to withdraw its forces from Somalia and settle back into its accustomed policy of exploiting clan divisions to weaken the country, and would give Washington the cover to claim that it had prevented Somalia from becoming a haven for al-Qaeda (even if the agreement would not be worth the paper it was written on) has had the consequence of putting the Darod into play as a new potential “spoiler” and has emboldened the Hawiye. In addition, neither Nur Adde nor Sheikh Sharif is perceived widely any longer as a national reconciling figure, diminishing the credibility of any deals they make. In short, the major shift in the balance of power in Somalia in November promises to destabilize the country even further – if that is possible – and to put in motion a process that might satisfy Addis Ababa, but would run contrary to Western perceived interests.

he concludes that “anyone who is willing to predict the political future of the entities comprising post-independence Somalia is on a fool’s errand,” but suggests an eye toward puntland & the darod

Posted by: b real | Dec 5 2008 5:41 utc | 51

thanks for the tireless work here b real.

Posted by: anna missed | Dec 6 2008 10:21 utc | 53

sophia tesfamariam, in her latest commentary at eritrea’s shabait.com, does a nice job of laying out the many times ethiopian troops were supposedly on brink of pulling out over the past two years & how $$$ then came rolling in to mele’s coffers.
Ethiopia’s Latest Deceptive Ploy: “Withdrawing from Somalia”

Meles Zenawi has been talking about withdrawing from Somalia from the get go. Notwithstanding the fact that his marauding forces have been vanquished in the last two years and the “withdrawals” are ploys to bring in more troops, as it has recently done to cover up his regimes mistakes and losses in Somalia, this “withdrawal” is yet another hoax. The last two years of Somalia’s invasion and occupation have been filled with deceit, lies, pomp and empty rhetoric. This latest drama is no different. It is a deliberate diversion and the motives are quite transparent. For those who have not followed Meles Zenawi’s saga in Somalia, let us review his many “threats to withdraw” and see why two years later and after boasting of military success, his vanquished forces are being routed out of Somalia by Somalia’s gallant children. No amount of military force can dampen the aspirations and dreams of the Somali people who are determined to liberate their country from all occupying forces. Meles’ flip flopping saga begins right after the invasion in December 2006.

Posted by: b real | Dec 7 2008 21:23 utc | 55

sarcastic commentary
Ethiopians Leaving, I Thought!

Over the weekend, Gureal, Dhusamarebe and Mataban in central Somalia fell to the Al-Shabab Islamists. But, hold on, that is not news, for town after town in Southern Somalia has been taken over by the same group in the last few months. What is the news?
The news: Lo and behold, fresh Ethiopian forces had crossed the border into central Somalia to face the Al-Shabab there? Why there and not other parts in the South?
The Al-Shabab’s next stop, if not stopped, would be Beletweine then Jawhar. The forces in both of these towns are loyal to Sheikh Sharif’s Islamic Courts Union (ICU).
Ordinarily, I would not put much stock in conspiracy theories, but there is something peculiar about Ethiopia’s sudden move against the Al-Shabab extremists there! It sounds and looks like the Ethiopians are to protect and rescue Sheikh Sharif’s militia assets, who are no match for the terror group, from sudden misfortune.
If that is the case, then Sheikh Sharif and his group are potentially just as [much] victims of Al-Shabab as the TFG. To the Al-Shabab, they both are as one and the same as a “donkey and its two ears” (Dameer iyo labadiis dhagood), as Somalis proverb.
Oh, my! What does that say about the good Sharif’s threat few days ago: “The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is only in existence because of the peace deal,” referring to the Djibouti agreement, with an implicit inference—if the TFG rejects the deal—that TFG ceases to exist?
If the Islamists in Somalia have fragmented, and if the power is with the most extreme of them, the dreaded Al-Shabab, with what power is Sheikh Sharif issuing as grandiose a threat as he did?

Posted by: b real | Dec 8 2008 20:14 utc | 57

there is no final-joy in this for anyone. The victims of Western manipulations in Somalia, Congo, Zimbabwe, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Georgia … will continue to pay a heavy price as they seek to become healthy & whole again. The peoples of the West will likewise begin to pay attention to why their leaders are unable to deliver the (bloody) goods as before and theirs will likewise be a difficult & challenging path. The USA is lucky to have Obama, and it should thank the founding fathers for having put in place a system that more than anywhere else in the West, makes an Obama possible.
an emerging question of todays time is how much longer will Western publics continue to put up with an approach thats not just failing them but also diminishing them in every category including the moral. As for the moral, the Western narrative that pushes itself as the ESSENTIAL agent of enlightenment is moving towards ridicule & collapse. Most notably, White American youth are no longer capable of appreciating, never mind ingesting the necessary mind-foods required to support this narrative to the extent required to keep it going. They prefer the Obama-food even if they do not really know what it represents. Its important to note that White American youth have received adequate (if not complete) information on what Obama represents. What remains to be seen is whether they made a good choice.
God Bless America’s Youth

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Dec 8 2008 21:36 utc | 59

garowe online had a little more late monday on the ethiopian troop mvmt in balanbal
Ethiopia deploys fresh troops to Galgaduud

GURI EL, Somalia Dec 8 (Garowe Online) – A new contingent of Ethiopian troops entered parts of Galgadud region, in central Somalia, in a renewed effort to counter against the Islamist Al Shabaab faction’s recent territorial gains.
Residents in Balanbal district along the Ethio-Somali border reported that 10 Ethiopian military trucks set up a new camp in the outskirts of town.
Communications were cut off from Balanbal as Ethiopian forces set up checkpoints and moved military trucks including tanks into position.
Radio Garowe’s Galgadud correspondent, Abdifatah Hassan Farah, said that some of the Ethiopian troops moved on towards Guri El, a trading town recently seized by Al Shabaab insurgents.

tuesday’s news has more ethiopian troop mvmts
Military tensions rise as Ethiopia deploys troops into Hiran region

BELETWEIN, Somalia Dec 9 (Garowe Online) – Ethiopian troops have reportedly amassed near the Somali-Ethiopian border, rising military tensions in Hiran and Galgadud regions, Radio Garowe reported Tuesday.
An Ethiopian army convoy of 20 military trucks has reportedly reached a village 30km northwest of Beletwein, the capital of Hiran region.
Beletwein is a major population center and has been under the control of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in recent months.
Residents said ICU militia had set up defensive positions early Tuesday morning around Beletwein, with locals apprehensive about a possible Ethiopian incursion.
Sheikh Abdirahman Ibrahim Ma’ow, the ICU chief in Hiran, confirmed to RG that the Islamist fighters in the region were deployed at strategic defensive positions.
Conflicting reports have emerged about the Ethiopian army buildup in Hiran, with some reports suggesting that the Ethiopian garrison is planning to block a possible Al Shabaab retreat from Galgadud region.
Al Shabaab fighters seized the region’s capital and a trading down last week, but a fresh convoy of Ethiopian troops arrived in Galgadud on Monday and locals fear military hostilities could erupt in the region any moment.

Ethiopia deploys fresh troops in strategic town

MOGADISHU (Sh.M.Network)-Ethiopian troops from the border have reached Jawiil town, 20 kilometres north of Baladweyn in Hiran region, Shaballe Radio correspondent, Omar kiyow reported on Tuesday.
The Ethiopian soldiers with armoured vehicles and artillery have been deployed the strategic road that connects Mogadishu, the Somali capital and central regions of Somalia.
The soldiers hampered the circulation of the people and traffic. Many civilians expressed concern the arrival of the Ethiopian troops in the town, where Ethiopian troops vacated about a month ago.
The move comes as Al-Shebab took control of many central towns for the past week.

Ethiopian troops and Al-shebab clash near Belli Dogle airport

MOGADIHSU (Sh.M.Network)- Ethiopian troops and Al-shebab fighters have exchanged heavy gunfire in Yaqberi Wayne Village near Balli Dogle airport, about 100 kilometres (60 miles) west of Mogadishu, residents said on Tuesday.
The fighting stared at about 2:00 pm local time when Ethiopian troops from Baidoa heading to Mogadishu reached to Yaqberi Wayne Village.
Residents near the area say, heavy gun fire and mortar shelling could be heard.
Officials from Al-shebab claimed they have killed dozens of Ethiopian troops and burnt military vehicles from the Ethiopian military.
Comments about the fighting could not be found from the Ethiopian military, as they do not often talk to the media.
Residents fled from the area and told Shabelle they could not withstand the sound of gunfire.

Posted by: b real | Dec 9 2008 17:31 utc | 61

Islamist leader in Hiran region declares ‘jihad on Ethiopia’

BELETWEIN, Somalia Dec 9 (Garowe Online) – The top leader of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) militia in central Somalia’s Hiran region has declared ‘jihad’ on Ethiopian troops amassing along border towns, Radio Garowe reported Tuesday.
Sheikh Abdirahman Ibrahim Ma’ow, the ICU chief in Hiran, told reporters via a telephone press conference that Ethiopia does not support the interests of the Somali people.
“I urge the Muslim people of Hiran [region] to join the jihad against Ethiopia, because the enemy of Islam has returned to our land,” Sheikh Ma’ ow said, while speaking from the frontlines in the northern outskirts of Beletwein, the capital of Hiran.
Witnesses and local officials have confirmed that Ethiopian troops have taken positions in parts of Hiran, but there was no indication as to where the Ethiopian contingent is headed.
Some reports suggested the Ethiopian troops are destined for Galgadud region in a bid to block a possible retreat of Al Shabaab fighters, who seized Galgadud’ s provincial capital last week.
Other reports said the Ethiopian troops were heading for Beletwein, where Addis Ababa maintained the third-largest contingent of troops in Somalia since late 2006.
ICU militia in Hiran have been positioned at defensive positions in the northern outskirts of Beletwein, where they are preparing for a possible Ethiopian incursion.

Posted by: b real | Dec 10 2008 5:12 utc | 63

GWB is going to want to drop this hot-potato in BO’s lap so the Repubs can blame him for the outcome. Its going to be a tough one for BO but at least Jendayi Frazier will not be running Africa policy.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Dec 10 2008 10:19 utc | 65

what’s noteworthy here is not the obvious point that the HRW rpt was pulling its punches, but that the u.n.’s OCHA publication provides space to a local human rights org to acknowledge that
irin: SOMALIA: Human Rights Day is “just another day of suffering”

Ali Sheikh Yassin, acting chairman of the Mogadishu-based Elman Human Rights Organisation, said: “Far more atrocities are taking place in Somalia than in any other country in the world today, yet all you hear about is Zimbabwe, DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo] or Darfur, because there are powerful countries that are interested.”
Human Rights Day is being marked two days after Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a report accusing the warring parties in Somalia of war crimes.
Local human rights and civil society groups said the report did not go far enough and “only covered less than 20 percent” of the atrocities committed.
Yassin said the report, while welcome, “did not cover most of the crimes being committed here. There is a lot more going on than has been reported and it is getting worse every day.”
Another civil society activist told IRIN that HRW was too easy on the perpetrators and “adopted a soft approach”.
“They should have said who is committing what and on what scale,” he said, adding that although all sides were committing crimes, “some were committing far worse atrocities than others”.
…
Yassin said his group had documented 16,000 deaths, with another 30,000 injured in 2007 and 2008.
“These are the figures we were able to verify. There are many more unaccounted for,” he added.

Posted by: b real | Dec 10 2008 16:06 utc | 67

reuters: Somali security forces desert, govt vanishing-UN

UNITED NATIONS, Dec 11 (Reuters) – The ranks of Somalia’s army and police have been gutted as most soldiers and police officers have deserted, often taking their weapons and vehicles, according to a new U.N. Security Council report.
The chairman of the council’s Monitoring Group on Somalia said on Thursday that this was one of the main sources of weapons and ammunition in Somalia, along with illegal imports from Yemen and purchases of arms for opposition groups with funds from various domestic and foreign financiers.
There has been “an 80 percent erosion and attrition in the (interim government’s) security sector, by which over 15,000 soldiers and police had deserted or defected along with their arms, uniforms, skills and vehicles in some cases,” South Africa’s U.N. Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo told the council.
…
In a four-page summary of the monitoring group’s biannual report for the council, Kumalo also said his committee had observed a “steady disintegration” of the government since he gave the group’s last report to the Security Council in May.
He said that 70 percent of the transitional Somali government’s revenues were earmarked for supporting the security sector, but very few of those funds were ever spent on security due to corruption.
“Charitable organizations and the Internet were the main sources of funding for armed opposition groups and … payment mechanisms involving cash couriers and contributions in kind had emerged,” Kumalo said in his summary.
On the topic of piracy, he described it as a “multimillion dollar industry, with a total of 1,000-1,500 pirates employed, using over 60 small boats and mother ships.”
He added that pirates were invoking “legitimate Somali grievances regarding foreign exploitation of marine resources and degradation of the marine environment, thus gaining community support.” He was referring to illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping in Somali waters.
…
Regarding allegations of complicity between Puntland officials and pirates, he said the regional authorities’ steps against the menace were “selective” and that “senior government officials had been so compromised that these measures would be of little consequence.”

the monitoring group’s rpts are archived here, though the cited rpt is not posted there yet

Posted by: b real | Dec 12 2008 4:19 utc | 69

shabelle media now puts that death toll at 23

MOGADIHSU ( Sh. M. Network)-Ethiopian troops killed 12 Somali nomads after being attacked by insurgents in Kaba Hirig about 80 kilometres west of Mogadishu, but now the number has risen to 23, eyewitnesses said on Sunday.
“We found six bodies in the bush near water well and we buried this morning,” one resident told Radio Shabelle by phone.
Another resident told Shabelle that they had found 5 bodies including a young baby and his mother who the Ethiopian soldiers killed them.

and it sounds like sheikh sharif has come into some walking around money
Sheik Sharif meets elders and civil society groups

MOGADISHU (Sh .M. Network)- The chairman of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed had talks with some of the Somali traditional elders and civil society groups in Lafwein hotel in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Saturday.
“We tell those who are in the bush to come out, if they need money we will give them, if they want leadership we will give them,” Sheik Sharif said.

and, more countries express opposition to the united states’ proposed draft resolution
wapo: U.S. Will Push U.N. for Somalia Mission

France, Britain and Russia are resisting the U.S. peacekeeping proposal, arguing that there is no peace to keep in Somalia. “It’s hard to see it happening,” a European official said. “We can see a case for a peacekeeping force to back a peace process, though it’s not clear you have a viable peace process.”
The United States has already begun informal negotiations on a resolution that would authorize the transformation of the existing African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) — which includes 3,400 Burundian and Ugandan peacekeepers — into a somewhat larger U.N. mission. The peacekeepers would be restricted to Mogadishu and other parts of southern Somalia, according to U.S. officials.
…
During her visit to New York, Rice is set to seek passage of a resolution authorizing foreign states “to take all necessary measures ashore in Somalia” in pursuit of pirates, according to a copy of the draft U.S. resolution. Rice will use the talks to open a broader discussion on the roots of Somalia’s security crisis, as well as the need for a second resolution establishing a U.N. peacekeeping force. “There is, in our view, no sound resolution of the piracy problem in the absence of extending adequate governance,” said a senior State Department official, who was not authorized to speak publicly. “The essential piece is to get the U.N. peacekeeping operation in there and stabilize the situation.”
Critics say the Bush administration’s approach to Somalia is showing signs of increasing incoherence. They say U.S. support for Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia — and its missile attacks against al-Qaeda targets in that country — was a major blunder that strengthened al-Shabaab’s standing, and that the U.S. push for a new force of U.N. peacekeepers will backfire.

anyone else tired of hearing that term “blunder” trotted out whenever apologizing for u.s. foreign policy?

“The strategy designed to block al-Shabaab actually gives them the target that fuels their insurgency,” said Kenneth Menkhaus, a professor of political science at Davidson College in North Carolina. “It’s self-defeating. The most effective way to stop al-Shabaab is Somali-led resistance.”

umm… al shabaab is the friggin’ somali-led resistance. or is the setup now to claim that it’s AQ leading the charge?

“We need some kind of peacekeeping mission in Somalia to reassure people,” [the United Nations’ top envoy for Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah] said. “We have a genocide in slow motion because Somalia has been abandoned by its own leadership, abandoned by the international community, and we have to do something today.”

nonsense. the islamic revolution of 2006 did not fail b/c “somalia has been abandoned by its own leadership”. not sure what ould-abdallah means by “international community” – there certainly were many nations that took a more-than-passive role in destabilizing somalia.

Posted by: b real | Dec 14 2008 5:23 utc | 71

The “government” of Somalia falls apart: Somali president sacks prime minister

Somalia’s President Abdullahi Yusuf sacked his prime minister Sunday after they disagreed on a new cabinet demanded by donors, throwing his Western-backed interim government into disarray.
Hassan Hussein Nur Adde was the second premier fired by Yusuf and had been in the job for only about a year. The fragile administration is fighting Islamist rebels who control the south and are camped on the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu.
…
The two men had disagreed over the composition of a new cabinet for the Horn of Africa nation, which had been called for by donor countries and east African regional leaders.
The pair also differed on the direction of U.N.-hosted peace talks in Djibouti, which aimed to get the government to share power with moderate Islamist opposition figures.
Hussein said the president had usurped the power of the country’s parliament and constitution by sacking him.

Posted by: b | Dec 14 2008 17:36 utc | 73

PM wins vote-of-confidence, deals blow to President

BAIDOA, Somalia Dec 15 (Garowe Online) – Somalia’s interim Prime Minister, Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein, decisively won a vote-of-confidence motion on Monday after lawmakers approved his new Cabinet, Radio Garowe reported.
Prime Minister Nur Adde addressed 165 MPs at ADC Hall in Baidoa, the seat of parliament, where he defended his administration’s one-year record and accused President Abdullahi Yusuf of being an obstacle to peace.
“The President refused his constitutional duty to approve the Cabinet,” Prime Minister Nur Adde said, while formally requesting lawmakers to vote on the new Cabinet list.
Sheikh Adan “Madobe” Mohamed, the Speaker, later announced the vote results: 143 MPs approved, 20 rejected and two MPs abstained.
The vote is a blow to President Yusuf, a day after he announced that Prime Minister Nur Adde was fired.
It is not clear how Yusuf will respond to Nur Adde’s political victory, a clear sign that the Somali government’s Western backers now favor Nur Adde’s reconciliatory approach to the Islamist opposition as opposed to Yusuf’s hawkish politics.

meanwhile
Islamic Courts armed faction ‘joins Al Shabaab’

MOGADISHU, Somalia Dec 14 (Garowe Online) – Militiamen loyal to an Islamic Courts Union (ICU) faction that says it is ‘independent’ of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) has now joined Al Shabaab, Radio Garowe reports.
A joint press conference held in Mogadishu was attended by Al Shabaab spokesman Mukar Robow “Abu Mansur” and Mohamed Ali Kofi, who spoke for the ICU faction.
The new armed alliance will fight under the common name of Al Shabaab, both spokespersons said.
“The jihad will never stop until we remove Ethiopian troops by force and others [foreign troops] from the country and then establish Islamic law,” Abu Mansur said.
He welcomed all fighting groups to join together to fight the enemy, saying: “We will not discriminate, Somali or foreign, and we will fight anyone who helps the enemy.”

note that part about “from the country” – no stmt about continuing jihad until a caliphate is installed in the region – no mention of continuing it until the ogaden is returned to somalia – no mention of targeting enemies in ethiopia or kenya…

Posted by: b real | Dec 15 2008 19:27 utc | 75

daily monitor (kampala): UPDF trains 500 Somalia troops

Uganda is training over 500 Somali forces to pacify the strife-torn country under administration of a shaky transitional government in Mogadishu facing armed insurgents.
The troops have begun military training at the remote Bihanga UPDF training wing in Mbarara, military officials who did not want to be named told Daily Monitor on Friday.
The training of Somali forces on the Ugandan territory drags Uganda, which has deployed a 1600- strongpeace- keeping contingent into the murky waters of Somali politics. It also makes the country a target for the insurgents with links to al-qaeda, who have warned foreign countries against contributing peace keepers or risk being attacked.
The Defence Ministry on Friday confirmed training of the Somali troops in Uganda. “They are there and we are simply implementing the mandate of the peace keeping force,” Army spokesman. Paddy Ankunda said. He said Uganda is exhibiting the same spirit of Pan-Africanism as exhibited by Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda to train Somalia security forces.
When asked about the duration of the training, Maj. Ankunda said the Somali forces will take between six to nine months as is the case in UPDF. “The country (Uganda) contributed and we have support from the African Union,” he said when asked about the source of funding for the troops. Uganda has also trained senior Somali police officers in managing police stations.

Posted by: b real | Dec 16 2008 6:01 utc | 77

[the above post will make more sense when the preceding one is released from the spam trap]

Posted by: b real | Dec 16 2008 17:14 utc | 79

@b – that’s why, as i’ve stated on other occassions, the only consistent u.s. policy i observer wrt somalia has been to keep it destabilized. ranneberger has a long history of being in problem areas that just happen to be associated w/ CIA operations – country officer in angola (1981-84) while the u.s. was overtly supporting the “proto-terrorist” Unita, then constructively engaged as deputy chief of mission in mozambique from ’86-9 while the u.s. was covertly supporting the outright terrorist mvmt Renamo, then paraguay for the ’89 coup and on through 1992, then ’92-94 around el salvador & guatemala for who knows what, a brief stint as deputy chief of mission in mogadishu around ’94, then some work in haiti, then coordinator for cuban affairs (’95-99), on to ambassador to mali from ’99-2002, in sudan from 2002-4 for a civil war supporting the southerners, then on to the african bureau, sudan again, and, finally, ambassador to kenya & responsibility for u.s. relations w/ somalia. sounds like a history of cover for CIA, or at least one very closely associated w/ the agency, but what do i know…
what i really want to know at the moment is what exactly does bush mean by this
Text of a Letter from the President To The Speaker Of The House Of Representatives And The President Pro Tempore Of The Senate

December 16, 2008
Dear Madam Speaker: (Dear Mr. President:)
I am providing this supplemental consolidated report, prepared by my Administration and consistent with the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148), as part of my efforts to keep the Congress informed about deployments of U.S. combat-equipped Armed Forces around the world. This supplemental report covers operations in support of the war on terror and in Kosovo.
…
Since September 24, 2001, I have reported, consistent with Public Law 107-40 and the War Powers Resolution, on the combat operations in Afghanistan against al-Qaida terrorists and their Taliban supporters, which began on October 7, 2001, and the deployment of various combat-equipped and combat-support forces to a number of locations in the Central, Pacific, European, Southern, and Africa Command areas of operation in support of those operations and of other operations in our war on terror.
…
In furtherance of our efforts against terrorists who pose a continuing and imminent threat to the United States, its friends and allies, and our forces abroad, the United States continues to work with friends and allies in areas around the globe. These efforts include the deployment of U.S. combat-equipped and combat-support forces to assist in enhancing the counterterrorism capabilities of our friends and allies. United States combat-equipped and combat-support forces continue to be located in the Horn of Africa region.

“continue to be located”, as in continuously being located, or just continuing to be located, i.e., CJTF-HOA?
if the latter, then that’s another sensitive contradiction for AFRICOM to deal w/, as they try to sell the image of personnel there as humanitarian do-gooders, not “combat-equipped and combat-support forces” permanently based on african soil
if it’s the former, hoo boy!

Posted by: b real | Dec 17 2008 5:17 utc | 81

bbc: Somali leader faces impeachment

Somali MPs have voted to start impeachment proceedings against President Abdullahi Yusuf, accusing him of being a “stumbling block to peace”.
He must now appear before parliament to defend himself. The motion would need a two-thirds majority to succeed.

Posted by: b real | Dec 17 2008 17:12 utc | 83

okay, you can say all that stuff. just don’t mention that the u.s. picked nur adde to be in the govt, ran the djibouti talks, is deeply involved in many many aspects of events in somalia, etc…
wapo: Impeachment Proceedings Begun Against Somali Leader
Yusuf’s Two Years of Rule Backed by Ethiopian Army, U.S.

NAIROBI, Dec. 17 — Somalia’s parliament voted Wednesday to begin impeachment proceedings against President Abdullahi Yusuf, another sign that his U.S.-backed government is unraveling.
“This is the end of the government. This is it,” said Mohamed Amin, a member of an opposition coalition that has a majority in parliament.
Yusuf’s government began disintegrating almost from the start two years ago, when it was installed with the might of the Ethiopian army and help from the United States.
At the time, the United States and Ethiopia viewed Yusuf — a warlord known as a tough and wily survivor — as a viable alternative to an Islamist movement that had taken over the capital of Mogadishu and that they accused of having links to al-Qaeda.
…
But Yusuf quickly proved to be a brutal leader devoted to the interests of his own clan, and his forces have killed and kidnapped political opponents, among the human rights abuses that other parties to the conflict also carried out.
…
“He is committing suicide in terms of his political calculation,” said Ali Said, director of the Center for Peace and Democracy, a Somali group operating in exile in Nairobi that promotes democratic government and human rights. “He will become isolated.”
One U.S. official put it more bluntly. “Yusuf is finished,” the official said on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

hmmm. wonder who that was…

“The military situation on the ground is completely different from the political picture,” the U.S. official said. “It’s just a matter of time before the Shabab move into Mogadishu.”
If that happens, the next phase of Somalia’s perpetual conflict would probably be a bloody power struggle between various clan militias and the Shabab. The rise of a radical Islamist group in Somalia would amount to the very scenario that Bush administration officials had sought to avoid by backing Yusuf.
The Shabab has thrived under the banner of fighting the Ethiopians, whom it views as proxies for the United States. But other than the exit of the Ethiopians and an end to U.S. involvement in Somalia, its goals are unclear.

oh please. are you that stupid?

Posted by: b real | Dec 18 2008 6:26 utc | 85