The Secretary of the Treasury is asking Congress for a blank check of $700,000,000,000.00 to buy up Residential and Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities of dubious value on whatever terms he wishes.
The biggest obscenity in the presented proposal is this:
Sec. 8. Review.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
I will have to more to say about the type of this bailout later on. For now only one point that is independent of the type of bailout.
Who will finance this?
Paulson also wants to lift the US national debt ceiling to $11,315,000,000,000.00. (When Bush took office, the U.S. federal debt was some $5.6 trillion and on a downtrend.) The U.S. GDP is roughly 13.5 trillion so the US government debt at that ceiling will be some 83% of US GDP. In international ranking that puts the U.S. debt to GDP ratio somewhere between Cote d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka. Still excludes from that calculation are several trillions of liabilities of Fannie & Freddie and AIG the U.S. government recently took over.
Japan is of course still worse off with a debt to GDP ratio of nearly 200%. But most of Japan’s debt is held at home as Japan is a nation of savers and has a positive currency account. It exports more than it imports. Over the last years the U.S. has imported a lot more than it exported and needs some $500 billion per year from foreigners to finance that habit. The U.S. national saving rate is somewhere near zero. It therefore needs foreigners to lend the money of any deficit.
Now Paulson wants $700 billion in emergency finance from where?
Who in this world can and will lend $700 billion for an emergency plan when the total lending to the U.S. in one year is only about $500 billion?
Did Paulson talk with China, Russia and the Saudis about this?
With this new debt
and debt to GDP ratio the U.S. does no longer deserve an AAA rating. That will have to be cut
down two or three notches.
Any future lenders will therefore ask for higher interest
rates. Will they have additional conditions on top of those?
To create some emergency plan is one effort. To find the money to proceed with it is a different point. I have yet to see the second issue discussed in any serious way. But some thoughts must go into that.
What do you think.
Who will finance Paulson’s plan (or any other plan of this size) and under what conditions?