There goes the ‘western’ Ukraine

September 17, 2008

The coalition supporting the government of Ukraine has dissolved and a new one will be have to be formed within 30 days or there will be new elections.

The current President Viktor Yushchenko and the Prime Minister Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko were both part of the ‘orange revolution’ against the allegedly manipulated election of Viktor Yanukovych for President. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko recently split over a bid to reduce presidential powers.

While Yushchenko is pro-NATO, anti-Russian and recently supported Saakashili’s splendid little war, Yulia Tymoshenko has largely moved to a neutral stand towards NATO and Russia and did not take any position on Georgia’s war. Yanukovych is pro-Russian.

In the 450 seat parliament President Yushchenko’s ‘Our Ukraine’ party has 74 seats. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s party has 156 seats. Together that had a majority. The opposition Yanukovych’s Party of Regions has 175 seats. It should be easy to make up a new coalition with Tymoshenko and Yanukovych coming together without new elections.

But Tymoshenko as well as Yanukovych may have interest in new elections. According to a poll they both might come out with about the same percentage as in the last election while President Yushchenko’s pro-western party would fall down to 4%.

One also should also never underestimate Yushchenko’s authoritarian streak and the support he has from the U.S. anti-Russian/neocon front. A strike by the president against the parliament like Boris Yeltsin’s coup in 1993, is a distinct possibility.

But if things go along the democratic way, the Ukraine will end up with a much less ‘western’ government that is unlikely to strive for a NATO and/or EU membership. This is one consequence of the five day war in Georgia. More will follow.

Posted by b on September 17, 2008 at 14:01 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Any discussion of the Ukraine has to consider the large Russian-speaking diaspora, especially in the Eastern Ukraine. They were the biggest losers in the last election dispute there and are ready to get their own back.
The Ukraine has little place in NATO or even in Western Europe, politically, economically and culturally. It should be aligned with the other former Soviet states. Any other constellation will simply add to tensions in the region.

Posted by: ralphieboy | Sep 17 2008 14:42 utc | 1

Ukraine’s prime interests ought to be concerned with countries around the Black sea, where there are many NATO countries not to mention a dominating US of Arrogance presence [pls. excuse, that was static from the bizaro universe]

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Sep 17 2008 15:24 utc | 2

Well, except that a coup by Yushchenko won’t work as well as during the Russian troubles, or as the Orange Revolution.
Russia is stronger and far more active now.
Having the Tymoshenko bloc against Yushchenko means that his popular support would be very thin, and the opposition would have far more support than anyone ever had in Yeltsin’s Russia, or that the Orange “revolutionaries” had at the time. Ukraine may not have the democratic experience of Western Europe, but it’s not North Korea either – or even Pakistan -; the people won’t back Yushchenko if tries to act autocratically. And the opposition would then benefit from the Orange revolution experience and networks, which is shared between Yushchenko people and Tymoshenko people – not to mention Moscow and Russian money, without being necessarily as effective as the American one in 2005, will be there to help.
Last but not least, there’s Tymoshenko. There’s simply no way she could be demonised as a potential evil-doer and arch-enemy by Yushchenko or even by the US propaganda machine. In very early 2000s, she was at times described as rabidly anti-Russian right-wing nationalist. Then she got her Orange revolution makeover which gave her a semi-iconic status. Given her good looks that made her look like she just came out of Fashion TV, it’d be hard to turn her into the new Villain of the week. Given her “orange” anti-Russian opposition credentials, which are quite well-known even in the West – just a step beneath Yushchenko’s -, it’d be hard to make her a lackey of Putin.
In fact, if Yushchenko tries something funny and go for a major confrontation, he’ll lose it, and he’ll just reinforce the pro-Russian wing and Russia’s position in the area – as well as dooming Ukraine’s NATO future.
Considering past events, odds are BushCo and Yushchenko Western backers as a whole (not to mention his buddy Saakashvili, bent on revenge against Moscow) will do just that and will greenlight authoritarian moves.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Sep 17 2008 15:48 utc | 3

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