Asif Ali Zardari has been elected as new president of Pakistan by the parliament and province assemblies. Also today Pakistan gave a warning to NATO by shutting down its supplies through the Khyber pass.
Mr. Ten Percent, as he is nicknamed for his corruption during his deceased wife Benazir Bhutto’s rule, won the position after some deft maneuvering and massive breaking of election promises and coalition agreements.
When the military dictator Musharraf became unbearable to the Pakistani
public, the U.S. pushed for a half democratic solution. Musharraf was
to become president and Benazir Bhutto, a restored U.S. darling, was
supposed to become prime minister. There were some legal hindrances to
both steps but Musharraf solved those by simply kicking out a number of
independent judges including the head of the Pakistani supreme court.
That step led to an unexpected uproar and big public demonstration
by lawyers. Another problem came up when Saudi Arabia decided that
their preference for prime minister of Pakistan should also play a
role. They sent former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was in exile in
Saudi Arabia, back to Pakistan.
During the February election campaign Sharif as well as Bhutto, and
after her assassination her husband and successor Zardari, promised to
reinstate the judges. The expectation was that these judges would then
declare Musharraf’s presidency as illegal and oust him. No party
achieved a majority in the election but Sharif’s PLM-N and Zaradi’s PPP
formed a coalition and a new government. The coalition agreement
included the reinstating of all judges and the installation of a
neutral president.
Soon it became obvious that Zardari did not want the judges back in
their job. They would have been likely to indict him again for his
earlier corruption. After month of pressure from the public and only
after Sharif withdrew his party from the government he agreed to
impeach Musharraf. As soon as it became clear that such an impeachment
was likely to be successful, Musharraf agreed to an immunity deal and
stepped down as president.
With the votes of his own PPP party and Musharraf’s MQM and PLM-Q votes
Zardari now won the presidency. Yesterday he reinstated three judges
(part of an election deal?), but none of those who would be dangerous
to him. The lawyers have renewed their demonstrations. A prosecutor
near to Zardari’s PPP reopened corruption charges against Nawzar
Sharif.
Pakistan is in deep chaos. The economy is in very bad shape. Foreign
reserves are as low as $6 billion and will likely be at zero in two or
three month. There are frequent electricity outages even in major
cities. The army has been fighting local Taliban in the tribal areas on
the western and north western border areas. Some 300,000 civilians fled
from those places and the army and paramilitaries took losses.
Meanwhile the U.S. increased the pressure on Afghan Taliban support
from Pakistan. On the first day of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, it
launched a ground operation on Afghan territory which killed some 20
people. This will generate serious backlash for the U.S. and NATO
troops in Afghanistan as well as for the Zardari government.
On Thursday Zardari had an op-ed in the Washington Post. He promised
‘democracy’ and to help in fighting ‘terrorism’. Don’t believe a word
of it. Zardari, just like Musharraf before him, will pretend to fight
‘terrorists’ as long as the U.S. pays a billion here and there. The
difference will be that Zardari’s personal share of the booty will be
much bigger than Musharraf’s.
Some 70% of U.S. and NATO logistics for Afghanistan are coming from
Karachi and through the Khyber pass in North-West Pakistan. Today this
line of communication was ‘temporarily’ shut down by the Pakistani government through withholding of convoy safety guards. That is payback for this week’s attack.
A few billions to Pakistan, with the obligatory 10% diverted to
Zardari’s bank accounts in Switzerland, will reopen that line. But that
is only for so long. Zardari has already lost most of the public
support he inherited from Benazir Bhutto. The public pressure on him
will rise and even while he might succeed to put Sharif into prison or
exile and to suppress lawyer protests he will not be able to rule for
long.
The U.S. will continue to bomb and invade the border regions from
Afghanistan. The local tribes and Taliban will continue to fight a
Pakistani government that, in their view, enables these act.
The Pakistani army, while currently not interested to coup against
the government, will continue to implement the national strategic aims.
The primary aim is to support their Muslim brothers in Kashmir in their
constant rebellion against India until India finally has enough of it
and allows Kashmir significant autonomy. The second aim is to regain
strategic depth in Afghanistan by installing a friendly, anti-Indian
government there. If Zardari does not support those aims, the army will
oust him.
The ‘western’ adventure in Afghanistan will continue for another bloody three to five years. As the LA Times notes
the U.S. plans to decrease its forces in Afghanistan this fall before
maybe increasing it next year. For lack of feet on the ground it is
likely to use more indiscriminate bombing and will thereby further
inflame rebellion against the occupation.
Pakistan will somehow muddle through those years but the local
conditions for the people will get worse. If the next elections are
fair, Zardari will be voted out and Sharif will get a chance to finally
break the dubious coalition with the U.S. and steer the Pakistani state
into a different direction.