…at the end Nature trumps all, Nature will destroy all the human machinations even mankind itself.
Ain’t that the truth? Hurricanes cleansing the Keys of human cockroaches? Whata thought. (Did I say that?)
For a peaceful wannabe my cynicism is becoming hard to control.
I’m looking into what it would take to leave the US/Isreal if McCanin wins. Where to go? What to do?

Posted by: Jake | Sep 8 2008 12:39 utc | 4

Underground.
Now you’re talking.

Posted by: Morloch | Sep 8 2008 13:07 utc | 6

Leaving the US?
It’s not that easy! One thing is that getting a blue passport is not a right, it’s a privilege and there can be difficulties…
I left 40 years ago and settled in the Happy Little Kingdom (Denmark) — and first now have I begun to consider giving up that blue passport — in a sense, for better or worse, you take America with you where ever you go…

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Sep 8 2008 15:02 utc | 8

Billmon’s analysis is flawed in regards to his extrapolation of demographic trends.
Here’s just one example, and it’s just the tip of the iceberg in regards to the melting pot melt down.

Illegal Immigrants Returning to Mexico in Record Numbers

Posted by: The Pot Is Melting | Sep 8 2008 15:14 utc | 10

Btw, the main loophole to enter the EU (that I know of) is the Italian grand-father clause. If you scramble up some ancestor that departed what is now Italy before the italian unification of 1861 you can become an EU citzen.

Posted by: a swedish kind of death | Sep 8 2008 16:05 utc | 12

Billmon wrote:
“In fact, if the 2004 partisan preferences reported for the major ethnic groups (non-Hispanic white, black, Hispanic, Asian and other) hold this year, and participation rates for the different groups remain the same, my spreadsheet shows John McCain winning just under 52% of the two-party vote and Barack Obama receiving just 48.3%. This almost certainly would result in a solid GOP electoral victory.”
One of the reasons McC was set to win, and may still.
However, analysis in terms of ethnicities / religious affiliation / … is way off, as Billmon himself hints. Populations grow or dwindle quickly, if only because they fill themselves in as X or Y according to their desire, etc. And even taking the categories as ‘crucial’, the various strands of opinion, belonging, etc. are and too mingled to make easy sense. For ex, in Bush 1, Muslims voted for Bush, because of his ‘conservative’ cultural stance and because he took them into account as part of the electorate. Muslims, in the US, are overwhelmingly young (the voters are also mostly male..), and not too rich; yet Bush appealed.
Hispanics, as immigrants and keen on *integration*, multi-culti, self affirmation, conserving their culture (it is broad enough to have a chance) and State Aid as lower socio-economically, traditionally vote Dem. Those who vote that is. (They are influenced by those who cannot.) But when they rise socially and in their turn hire illegal workers they look to whomever will protect biz and freedom (no penalties, lower taxes, etc.)
That issue, just as an ex. showing there is no consistent policy, all is fluff and image: is a problem for McC/Palin: are they to crack down on immigrants to protect jobs for ‘lower’ whites, return the US to its manufacturing base, or start up big Gvmt. projects (and Bush has been hiring like a madman since his first day in office, without the projects) with proper-low skilled jobs for upstanding citizens or are they to support the hiring of cheap, exploited, slave labor, at home and abroad, to support the diminutive overlords (whites but not only) who can then profit? Just one ex.

Posted by: Tangerine | Sep 8 2008 16:19 utc | 14

dream on #10. your fox news report alleges..The illegal immigrant population in the U.S. has dropped 11 percent since August of last year, according to the Center for Immigration Studies.
from profile on right web
center for immigration studies.
A follow-up article in the Wall Street Journal titled “Borderline Republicans” described the anti-immigration network this way: “CIS, FAIR, NumbersUSA, ProjectUSA-and more than a half-dozen similar groups that Republicans have become disturbingly comfortable with-were founded or funded (or both) by John Tanton. In addition to trying to stop immigration to the U.S., appropriate population control measures for Dr. Tanton and his network include promoting China’s one-child policy, sterilizing Third World women, and wider use of RU-486.” (5) Replying to this charge, Krikorian wrote in National Review Online that CIS does not take a “position on anything that does not involve U.S. immigration policy.” (6)
…..
“Tanton set up groups like CIS and FAIR to take an analytical approach to immigration from a Republican point of view so that they can give cover to Republicans who oppose immigration for other reasons.”
think tank a la agenda

Posted by: annie | Sep 8 2008 17:08 utc | 16

CIS and John Tanton do appear to have a dubious agenda, however, the underlying message of the news report doesn’t hinge on the reference to that organization. It is acknowleged by others in that article that the momentum of illegal immigration appears to be abating. From the article:
Advocates for immigrants are disturbed by the trend. Albert Ruiz, an organizer for the League of United Latin American Citizens, agrees that more undocumented immigrants are going home — but says families are being torn apart in the process.
That’s a tragedy, but there’s more of it to come, I’m sure. As the noose tightens, and the U.S. approaches economic failure, competition for jobs, any kind will do, will become fierce. In such an environment, there will be zero tolerance for illegal immigrants, and if you think it’s intolerant now, you haven’t seen anything yet.
Also, it no longer makes sense for Mexicans to cross the border illegally for work in the U.S. because the growth that brought them here in droves during the last two decades is gone….forever.
We should promote policies that help assimilate those who are here, but we should also develop a strict immigration policy going forward. In that regard, what the CIS claims is their mission is not outlandish, in the least, and it is something that is practiced by most EU countries. Here’s CIS’s mission per Wiki:
It is the Center’s mission to expand the base of public knowledge and understanding of the need for an immigration policy that gives first concern to the broad national interest. The Center is animated by a pro-immigrant, low-immigration vision which seeks fewer immigrants but a warmer welcome for those admitted.
Why do you think the Mexicans flooded across the border Annie? You don’t think it had anything to do with the explosive growth we’ve experienced the past couple of decades, excelerated significantly by the Building Boom for the last seven years?
Those days are over, and it will increasingly no longer be worth the risk of crossing, from a cost/benefit stand point, for the Mexicans. In 2050, the trend we saw for the last 20-30 years in regards to illegal immigration will be rendered to the annals of history, just like all the other waves of immigration, with one caveat. I think it’s the last wave. The myth and allure that once heralded the U.S. has lost its luster and appeal. The U.S. was a magnificent Annual but the harsh winter is fast approaching and it will soon be relegated to mulch after the deep freeze.

Posted by: The Pot Is Melting | Sep 8 2008 19:15 utc | 18

If it’s going to be a choice between a country that looks and acts like California, or one that looks and acts like Idaho (or Alaska) I know which America I would like to live in — and it doesn’t have to include mooseburgers.
Sanctimony. Alaska is 74.7 white, compared with New York State at 73.7%, California was 79% in 2005 now closer to 60%. It is not diversity but density, geography, and economy that distinguishes California from Alaska. Idaho is an anomaly. How about Maine? Mississippi?

Posted by: rjj | Sep 8 2008 19:47 utc | 20

Some political humor on the topic of parties, identeties and this series of tubes.
The Margins of Error: John McCain Gets BarackRoll’d

This seemed to get cut from the coverage of John McCain’s acceptance speech

Posted by: a swedish kind of death | Sep 8 2008 19:58 utc | 22

other stuff cut from the coverage of the Repub. convention:
Meghan’s blog, *McCain blogette*, daughter, has no permalinks, I refer here to Sunday Sept. 7, title “Day four” – the convention.
mccainblogette
All pictures, splendid ones (not taken by her.)
(Nana, the white haired lady is John McC’s mother.
The only dark skinned person is Bridget, the McC’s adopted daughter.)
Kissinger in the front row holding an indeterminate? hat!
Check out the ‘we love Cindy’ signs.
During McC’s intro, on the big screen: a baby picture of Meghan.
Slogan in the audience, first I heard/saw, “Change we can trust.”
Yulia Timoshenko’s hair style seems to have caught on in a big way.
See the balloons, the fireworks, the branded bottle water.
Family, family, family values.

Posted by: Tangerine | Sep 8 2008 21:27 utc | 24

#20 Alaska is 74.7 white, compared with New York State at 73.7%, California was 79% in 2005 now closer to 60%. It is not diversity but density, geography, and economy that distinguishes California from Alaska. Idaho
i beg to differ, check my last link.
Non-Hispanic whites decreased from 80% of the state’s population in 1970 to 43% in 2006.
the 2005 census claims the hispanic population in california was 33.59%. white is 79.07% hispanics are white, consider themselves white and are included in demographics as white. once you include the other races (7.65 black, 12.39% asian plus others) you come up w/your 100%.
from the link.
California lacks a majority ethnic group, and is considered one of the “majority-minority states.”
that means diversity.
and shrinking.
The largest named ancestries in California are Mexican (25%), German (9%), Irish (7.7%), English (7.4%) and Filipino (6%)
i think what may be happening w/whites in diverse cultures is their is more opportunity to keep diluting the european strain thru intermarriage.
my family is an example of this kind of culture. i was raised here in calif. one sister married a man whose family settled in new mexico before it was a state (9 generations american/marines!), one sister’s husband came from chile during his adult life. although my nieces and nephews are white they are also hispanic and very much a part of that culture. as a result my family has had a negative % impact on the lily white demographic.

Posted by: annie | Sep 8 2008 22:47 utc | 26

I won’t continue to belabor the point with you, Annie. If you don’t see it, you don’t see it. Far be it from me to make you see something you obviously refuse to see.
Your commentary is somehwat disturbing, though. If you’re advocating for lack of assimilation and cultural permanance, you’re setting yourself up for resentment, and ultimately scapegoating, similar to what the Jews or Gypsies experience because of their clan-like behavior.
That clan-like behavior may have served as a vital asset for continuous immigration, however, as the shit hits the fan, that clan-like behavior will have the opposite effect. Look what happened in Germany. The Jews were clanish and had a cultural permanance. They refused to assimilate completely, and when things got dire, they were easily singled out as the problem for which a solution was needed.
I’m the descendant of immigrants myself, Annie. I’m Irish and Polish, and my grandparents came over on the boat. I’m assimilated, and we have lost the culture of the Old Country. Well, maybe not entirely, for me, because I still cook some Polish dishes that I fondly remember from my childhood, but that’s about it. Perhaps it’s different with Mexicans because of the proximity to Mexico, geographically, but if the cultural permanance remains, considering how bad things are going to get, then I’m afraid it’s going to be a similar situation to the Muslims in Europe.

Posted by: The Pot Is Melting | Sep 8 2008 23:34 utc | 28

I think what annie is saying is that NAFTA illegally allows capital goods free flow without tariffs, while backdoor ignoring illegal tax subsidies, and yet at the same time, NAFTA illegally prevents free flow of *labor*, while backdoor ignoring illegal H1:H2 incentivized immigration.
Of course, legal, smeagle in Bilderburgian Soviet, but that’s the point.
US wasn’t exporting potatoes to Ireland Poland during the Great Famine.
—
As far as the breaking news that the ReThugs have torpedoed MSNBC, and thrown convention and pre-election coverage into the Pravda Gulag with
delegates shouting ‘NBC, NBC, NBC’ like Reichstag Brown Shirts, this:
“Those ReThug delegates were chanting, “Embassy!, Embassy!, Embassy!”
attempting to reanimate the rotting corpse of Ronald Reagan, who inked a covert backroom deal with the Iranians to hold the US hostages until after the US elections, extending the hostages’ ordeal by more than three months, and issuing in the era of Iran-Contra black ops and drug smuggling which has inevitably destroyed America. Just think, barely 8 years ago, US had a surplus and was fully employed. Now we are officially a bankrupt Soviet economy locked-down police state.
McCain – Palin 2008
“Who Needs Social Services, You Whiners!””

Posted by: McPalin Failin | Sep 9 2008 0:15 utc | 30

M of A – Billmon: The Future Belongs to We

Look what happened in Germany. The Jews were clanish and had a cultural permanance. They refused to assimilate completely, and when things got dire, they were easily singled out as the problem for which a solution was needed.

Not more distinct then that they had to be forced to wear distinctive marks and change their names in order to establish them as an outsider-group. The process of assimilation and the hinders to it on both the side of the mayority populations in Europe and the jewish minorities is long and varied. But by the time of the Holocaust the jewish population in Germany was by and large well assimilated, compared to different times and countries in Europe.
Some were totally assimilited, but it helped little:

The Nuremberg Laws, as they became known, did not define a “Jew” as someone with particular religious beliefs. Instead, anyone who had three or four Jewish grandparents was defined as a Jew, regardless of whether that individual identified himself or herself as a Jew or belonged to the Jewish religious community. Many Germans who had not practiced Judaism for years found themselves caught in the grip of Nazi terror. Even people with Jewish grandparents who had converted to Christianity were defined as Jews.

The scapegoating originated in the governments need to create an enemy within, not in the behaviour of the oppressed groups.

Posted by: a swedish kind of death | Sep 9 2008 0:45 utc | 32

Perhaps it’s different with Mexicans because of the proximity to Mexico, geographically, but if the cultural permanance remains, considering how bad things are going to get, then I’m afraid it’s going to be a similar situation to the Muslims in Europe.
Keep in mind that a huge chunk of the west used to belong to Mexico on the one hand. Secondly, those with a good degree of Mayan ancestry (and which comprise the majority of the Mexican laboring class) were here before either the Spanish or the English.
A separate point = As an economist (which tends to be a conservative discipline overall) one of the “new names” that is getting a lot of traction in the literature is Dani Rodrik. While billed as an “unconventional” economist, he is a strong supporter of free flow of labor across international boundaries (an admittedly conservative policy plank). I don’t think we are going to see the demise of any immigration “trends” to the US anytime soon. Perhaps political expediency will temper the flow, but it won’t ebb. The economy depends on it.

Posted by: D. Mathews | Sep 9 2008 1:16 utc | 34

I think what annie is saying is that NAFTA illegally allows capital goods free flow without tariffs, while backdoor ignoring illegal tax subsidies, and yet at the same time, NAFTA illegally prevents free flow of *labor*, while backdoor ignoring illegal H1:H2 incentivized immigration.
I don’t think Annie was saying that at all. Per her rhetoric, she appears to be an advocate for La Raza, and California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas don’t really belong to the white man, whatever the “white man” is supposed to mean. This is dangerous and disturbing rhetoric, and I find it quite ironic that she’s so loosely throwing around the xenophobic label, considering La Raza is as blatantly xenophobic as the next crackpot organization.
Either way, I agree with you about NAFTA, and if that’s what Annie believed, then she should have said it rather than attacking the Strawman she created like a Pitbull with lipstick.
The irony of this whole debate is that the Hispanic vote may not remain predictably Democratic. In fact, there’s good reason to believe that it may go for the GOP again considering McCain’s relationship with La Raza, and his stance on Immigration.
But yeah, Capitalism is at the root of the problem and its virulant quest to exploit labor and resources and externalize the costs. One thing that would have put an end to the massive immigration from Mexico would have been a Living Wage law in the U.S. Is Obama for a Living Wage law? I highly doubt it, and even if he feigned to be, it would never fly, and he knows it.

Posted by: The Pot Is Melting | Sep 9 2008 1:30 utc | 36

jony_b_cool,
Very insightful analysis. I agree with it, for the most part.
D. Mathews, your assertion rests on your prognosis for the U.S. economy and the World economy. My prognosis is much more cynical than your’s, and therefore my assertions about immigration trends. I’m not an Economist, but that shouldn’t matter, should it, especially whne you consider this Peter Drucker quote:
In all recorded history there has not been one economist who has had to worry about where the next meal would come from.

Posted by: The Pot Is Melting | Sep 9 2008 1:47 utc | 38

I´ve never been to the US and I must confess that, of all the countries in the world, it’s the one I never dreamed of visiting. That said, I have, as all the world now, been subject to the relentless pressure of the US cultural hegemony. The simple fact of watching TV means you see US movies, US serials, US comics, not to mention the overwhelming influence of US media in the media of all the rest of the world. Having lived with that most of my life I scraped my TV 3 years ago, stoped buying newspapers and magazines and with very few exceptions no longer watch US made movies. I get all my information from the internet, sometimes watch the news in Telesur and Presstv, follow a few blogs from different parts of the world, and I consider my mental sanity has greatly improved on account of that.
That said – it had to come out – I find very amusing, and revealing, the kind of race classifications used in the US:
Hispanics, one would think, should be used for those that came from Spain, but in the US hispanic refers to those people that are in diferent gradients of amerindian descent. US blacks should be, by the same measure, considered as english, as they all speak english, but no, everybody knows blacks don’t come from England. A black from Brasil, or Cuba, is an hispanic, a black from Mississipi is an afro-american, an amerindian from Chile is an hispanic, one from New Mexico is a native american. One wonders, as Eduardo Galeano so well put it, if the US is America, what are the rest of the Americans?
So, what have we? A culture that through it´s assumed supremacism considers all others as inferiors and threatening, living in an ever increasing paranoia they will soon be a minority? Wellcome to the Boers nightmare…

Posted by: estouxim | Sep 9 2008 3:34 utc | 40

Uh, there is an old meme that “they” are going to outnumber us because “they” breed like rats/rabbits/cockroaches/whatever is icky…
I don’t know if this is significant or if it is something one can generalize from, but here in the Happy Little Kingdom they have had to drastically reduce the projected number of people in Denmark of “other ethnic background” expected in 2020.
The reason is that the young immigrant women who have grown up here are not having as many babies and they are having them later — 1.8, just like their Danish sisters.
My guess is that women who are educated even if only to the level of basic literacy, who are not forced to “go barefoot”, chained to the kitchen, who are able to have some financial independence — they simply don’t have more babies then they can feel raise well.

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Sep 9 2008 10:22 utc | 42

D. Mathews I don’t think we are going to see the demise of any immigration “trends” to the US anytime soon. Perhaps political expediency will temper the flow, but it won’t ebb. The economy depends on it.
yep
estouxim Hispanics, one would think, should be used for those that came from Spain, but in the US hispanic refers to those people that are in diferent gradients of amerindian descent.
i think you would be mistaken.
check here

People of Hispanic or Latino heritage have lived continuously in the territory of the present-day United States since the 1565 founding of St. Augustine, Florida by the Spanish, the longest among European American ethnic groups and second-longest of all U.S. ethnic groups, after American Indians. Hispanic communities have also been living continuously in Arizona, Texas, New Mexico, and California since the 18th century.[11][12]
For the U.S. government and others, Hispanic or Latino identity is voluntary, as in the United States census, and in some market research.[13]

one from New Mexico is a native american.
many native americans in new mexico are distinct and not hispanic, and many hispanics from NM descend from spain (some by way of mexico, but don’t associate their heritage as mexican) w/no indigenous identity.
native americans (american indians)include all indigenous americans, whether from canada, mexico, peru or arizona. they aren’t hispanic unless they self identify as such, have spanish blood or speak spanish.
an example of the diversity in one small town in new mexico: Taos
A culture that through it´s assumed supremacism considers all others as inferiors and threatening, living in an ever increasing paranoia they will soon be a minority?
well, certainly a portion of the culture unfortunately. while their paranoia may be ever increasing, their numbers aren’t, they are decreasing and in many areas (like taos) a minority indeed.
With a population of more than 409,719….(Non-Hispanic White 11.8%)

Posted by: annie | Sep 9 2008 14:45 utc | 44

Hey, the US *needs!* or commands cheap labor, at home and abroad:
Chinese slave girls to make Barbies, i phones, lacy bras, phones, computers, and trillions of pairs of shoes.
Mexicans to clean the pools, plant the trees, serve the chips, line up on the pavement for a day job.
Columbians to wipe asses and take care of babies and the drooling elderly, clean hotel rooms, for about? 5-8 dollars an hour.
Chinese cooks. (These were thrown out of Israel, for ex.)
Cleaning ladies, hotel employees, whores, gardeners, fruit pickers, chauffeurs, agri laborers, factory workers, many in low industry biz, road and other construction workers, endless service staff, in gas stations, Fast foods, etc., and many more menial jobs, ‘service’ jobs that can’t be delocalised.
All without health insurance/care, proper unemployment insurance, many without solid papers thus any rights, and on very low pay, always subject to review.
One notch up, abroad, Telephone operators in call centers all over, software engineers, planners and advisers, designers, long distance docs, factory bosses, etc.

Posted by: Tangerine | Sep 11 2008 16:41 utc | 46