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Billmon: Ready, shoot, aim
It’s already clear that Palin offers an embarrassment of riches for the Obama campaign, and a wealth of embarrassments for McCain’s. There’s no need to get greedy — or cruel and vindicative, which is the one thing that could cause this whole freeding frenzy to circle back and start munching on the Democrats. McCain’s people wanted to toss the pregnancy story into Hurricane Gustav? Good. Let it be buried in the muck.
Except for one obvious point: When Sarah Palin praises her 17-year-old daughter for "choosing" to give birth to a baby conceived out of wedlock (and assures us that she is doing it of her own free will) it should never be forgotten that she (and her party) would, if they could, deny that same right of choice to every other American woman, without exception.
Billmon: Ready, shoot, aim
I am going to have to review my long standing prediction of a smooth McC win.
Just as well?
I can’t judge the relevance of whatever is being dug up about Palin, her family, her action, past..
Makes her look like an ordinary American, right? That might even be positive.
The mistake: if one is going to do slice ‘n dice identity politics you need your head screwed on, your numbers in hand, and a good plan. And then you have to make these huge data sheets…meters and meters in Excel.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained is not the motto of the day.
Some killer facts that are spat out (in the imagination):
No Repub. base person, no trad. Repub voter, no Fundie, will do anything but vote against Obama, even if the VP is Minnie Mouse and the P comatose.
The black vote was lost in any case, so it was correct not to bother with that. Turning out more white, trad, Repub, fundie, votes is not really possible (?), the extra turnout expected is already accounted for by the fact of there being a ‘new’, young, unknown, ‘black,’ dem. candidate. (From 2 to 5 points.)
No or very few Dem. base, blue-collar, lower socio-ec. trad. in the majority female, Hillary supporters sore at Obama being selected will cross over. Very few undecided or ‘issues’ women will now vote the McC ticket. Previous, the cross over was expected to be quite large; now the cross over will go from even-out to possibly favor Obama. (?)
More generally:
Palin as VP shifts the McC ticket sharply to the right, too far to the right. It is the wrong positioning, and thrashes his rep as a ‘independent thinker’ politically if not socially.
Moreover, the aura, of ::
white, religious, puritan, far off, clouds, cold, outpost, nitty gritty survival, family life, fundi values, snow, white, small town, personal contact, conquer, bridges to nowhere, guns, beauty, many babies no abortion, average, hockey, family life again, state college, etc. etc. will not speak to any townies, etc. fill it in, east or west coast, which is where the rich and the earners live, whatever their political coloring and their muddled thinking about economics. Other prism, reading.
McC has destroyed his advantage of being seen as ‘safe’. Polls have shown that ppl consider Obama a ‘risky choice’ – and favor him; McC as a ‘safe choice’ …. – a tremendous advantage on election day. That advantage is now lost. How many pc. points? Say, between 2 and maybe even 6.
McC left the ‘safe, conventional’ script to try to trump Obama. Adopting your enemy’s tactics is often very unwise, has to be considered carefully. A position of strength must not be abandoned so lightly.
Posted by: Tangerine | Sep 2 2008 17:57 utc | 27
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