When the Russian Federation (RF) officially recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia I was quite surprised:
I had expected that Medvedev would wait, but the ‘western’ response to Saakashvili’s splendid little war was probably too much to take.
When I wrote that I had the ‘western’ ‘information operation’, i.e. propaganda campaign, in mind as the reason for the Russian reaction.
I was wrong. The move to recognize those areas, and other Russian Federation since then, were motivated by something that is much more serious and dangerous.
The Russian Federation feels weak and is afraid that the ‘west’ might make another attempt to archive control over those factual independent areas.
To recognize those areas was a move to make sure that the ‘west’, i.e. the U.S., understands the consequences of challenging them.
Pat Lang, who sees a chance that this conflict might go nuclear, argues differently. He thinks, if I understand him correctly, that the Russians felt strong and believed the U.S. is weak. Therefore, he argues, they took those two areas because, simply, they could do so. He warns that the Russian underestimate the neocon’s and that such ‘miscalculation’ could escalate.
I believe that the Russian Federation has a very different read of the situation.
It is NOT that the Russian Federation thinks the U.S. is weak, it fears that the U.S. is strong.
For some 12 days now, the U.S. has sent some 30-40 tons of equipment by plane to Georgia every day. It additionally unloaded 100+ tons of supply to Georgia from ships. It has some 50 Tomahawks (anti-land missiles) and some 50 Harpoons (anti-ship missiles) on 10+ NATO ships in the Black Sea. Those could sink the whole Russian Black Sea fleet and disable all RF airbases in the wider area within one hour!
There are also strategic non-nuclear U.S. air assets to consider. B1 and B2 stealth bombers could raid Russian airbases and hundreds of U.S. fighter jets stationed in Iraq and Turkey, with some routine refueling, could easily reach the relevant areas.
The Georgian military, with embedded U.S. and Israeli trainers, is still 27,000 men strong. The RF has less than 10,000 men in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If those hundreds of tons the U.S. unloaded over the last 14 days were Javelin Anti-Armour Missile, Stinger Block2 Anti-Air Missiles and similar stuff, how well would those Georgian troops do with superior numbers and superior weapons? Those pallets were labeled "humanitarian" but did any neutral source ever looked what they really carried?
The Russians really, really fear U.S. troops at their boarder. Never, ever forget: They lost 20 million people in their last big fight.
In their mindset they assume that if the Russian Federation would look weak now, the neocon nuts in the U.S. might feel free to use the recent capacity build up to retake the now independent areas and, after that, place a direct U.S. presence in the Caucasus. The U.S. empire at the soft belly of the Russian sphere.
The RF strategy to avoid that situation is to now look strong and decisive. Make sure that the U.S. understands that this will escalate if such plans get implemented.
Therefore, the RF acknowledged the independence of those areas and made sure that the world knew the cost of interfering there. The RF feared to look vague about the issue and that looking vague might entice some folks to try something aggressive.
As the last point obviously has not yet been sufficiently noticed, the Russians gave two more big signals today.
900,000 tons of yearly poultry and pork meat imports from the U.S. to the Russian Federation is from now on no longer welcome. Small point you think? Ask the relevant U.S. producer lobbies.
More seriously, the Russian Federation Army today launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.
The Topol RS-12M ballistic missile, designed to defeat anti-ballistic missile systems, has hit a designated target at a testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, said Alexander Vovk, head of the Russian Strategic Missile Troops press service.
This is the really, really serious signal. The Russian Federation can go nuclear if needed. They do not threaten this because they feel strong. They do threaten this because they feel weak.
Pat Lang unfortunately seem to read the Russians wrong. If realists like Pat have a wrong reading of the ‘enemies’ motives and intention, the situation can get even more dangerous then when neocons rule with their usual delusions.
Now, please close that hatch.
Thanks!
