So is Russia "violating the ceasefire"agreement as Bush says? The NYT says no:
Negotiating from a position of strength, the Russians demanded the fifth point, allowing their troops to act in what was termed a peacekeeping role, even outside the boundaries of the separatist enclaves where the war began, with an understanding that later an international agreement might obviate this need.
The vague language of the fifth point allows Russian peacekeepers to “implement additional security measures” while awaiting an international monitoring mechanism.
Currently the Russians are visiting Georgian military bases in Gori, Poti and Senaki to destroy or take away weapons they find and to blow up the ammunition depots. It would be too dangerous to leave those unguarded, wouldn’t it?
When the Russian troops will leave in a day or two days the western part of Georgia will effectively be demilitarized. The U.S. weapon industry has reason to jubilate.
Uncharacteristically Saakashvili has not given a public peep today. Has he finally been told to shut up or is cooking up something new? Yesterday he kind of admitted that his original military attack plan failed:
Saakashvili told a group of foreign journalists in a conference call earlier on August 13, that the plan was to stop the Russian forces at the Roki Tunnel in the north of South Ossetia, which links the breakaway region with Russia’s North Ossetian Republic.
“Once they got to Tskhinvali, they could march on the capital. We tried to stop them in the mountains before Tskhinvali, but we were too late and there were too many of them,” Saakashvili said according to the transcript provided by the President’s press office.
Charles Krauthammer comes up with ideas on how to "punish" Russia. At least he acknowledges that there is no military options. But he recommends to abolish the NATO-Russia Council, bar Russia’s entry to the WTO, dissolve the G-8 and to boycott the Winter Olympics at Sochi in 2014.
None of those points is likely to get implemented. When one thinks about it, Russia has more abilities to hurt the U.S. than vice versa.
- With over $500 billion in foreign currency reserves, most of them in U.S. treasuries, Russia can notch up U.S. interest rates by simply announcing to sell a few of those.
- Part of the NATO supplies to Afghanistan runs through Russia. Does the U.S. really want that line to be closed?
- Russia could reduce oil production by say 10% and bring oil to $200/barrel.
- …
It does not make sense to pressure Russia because Russia can pressure back and unlike U.S. politicians Putin does not care what Krauthammer and other lunatics write.
But the dumbest idea Krauthammer comes up with is this:
President Bush could cash in on his close personal relationship with Putin by sending him a copy of the highly entertaining (and highly fictionalized) film "Charlie Wilson’s War" to remind Vlad of our capacity to make Russia bleed. Putin would need no reminders of the Georgians’ capacity and long history of doing likewise to invaders.
I am not sure that Putin would relate "Charlie Wilson’s War" with "Georgians’ capacity and long history of doing likewise to invaders".
You see, Georgia was annexed by Czar Paul I in 1800 and defended by Russians against Persian incursions. It was ruled by Russia until 1918. Then, during the Russian civil war, Georgia declared independence and with British help stayed independent until 1921 when it became part of the USSR. It again claimed independence in 1991 but immediately lost South Ossetia and Abkhasia. So out of 200 years Georgia was partly independent for about 12 years. That and the lousy performance of its troops last week indeed tells you something about "Georgians’ capacity and long history" of making invaders bleed.
But Putin while watching "Charlie Wilson’s War" might indeed get the idea that an occupation force in Afghanistan can be beaten and dislodged by supplying the Taliban with money and anti-air missiles. He may even thank Krauthammer for that fabulous idea.