Saak’s latest propaganda stunt: "It’s the European’s fault!"

He lashed out at “most of the European countries” for their “muted and quiet” reaction to what he called was Russia’s preparation of Georgia’s invasion in recent months.

Oh well …

But for some rightwing U.S. bloggers that certainly is a good occasion for the regular Europe bashing.

Zenpundit argues that (western) Europe interest in Georgia is bigger than U.S. interest:

Isn’t Saakashvili America’s “special project” ( to quote Russia’s Foreign Minister – some Putin toady, name unimportant, he warms a chair). Well, not really. My friend Dave Schuler has an outstanding post on Europe’s stake in Georgia. It’s a lot larger than is ours:

….Germany’s ties with Georgia are, if anything, closer. Georgia is Germany’s fifth largest trading partner.
I presume that much of this trade is a consequence of Georgia’s two
pipelines. Energy independence is as much a political hot topic in
Germany as it is here but the term means mostly not being so terribly
dependent on Russia. The path to greater energy independence for
Germany lies through Georgia.

….In 2007 FDI in Georgia exceeded the $1 billion mark. A substantial proportion of that was EU countries.

What outstanding nonsense. The source that Dave Schuler dude cites is a Georgian foreign ministry site which says:

Germany is Georgia’s 5th biggest trade partner.

Is there a difference between "Germany is Georgia’s 5th biggest trade partner" and "Georgia is Germany’s fifth largest trade partner"?

You bet:
(all numbers 2007 (pdf))

• German total imports: €771 billion
• German total exports: €967 billion
• German imports from Georgia: €54.7 million
• German exports to Georgia: €215 million
• Georgia country rank in German imports: 119
• Georgia country rank in German exports: 95

Direct investment from Germany to Georgia in 2007 was $20 million according to the Georgian government link above. Total German foreign direct investment is around a trillion bucks or so.

So Georgia imports 0.2% of total German exports, a few Mercedes limousines for Saak’s friends (payed with U.S tax dollars btw) and Germany buys some vegetables from there. Is that a sound reason for Germans and other Europeans (their numbers look similar in proportion) to get involved in a stupid border war?

But facts don’t bother such strategic thinkers as Zenpundit all that much.

Another example: The Small War Journal starts with the wrong assertion that Putin was leading the war on the Russian side. It also asserts that Russia won the media campaign. That must be the reason why most U.S. MSN sources forget to mention that Georgia started this war. The solution against such wars, as SWJ argues, is to pump more arms into countries with lunatic leaders like Georgia.

C’mon folks. Even as rightwing nuts you can do better.

Georgia is a border province of Russia and a U.S. neocon ideology project. It has zero to do with Europe. There is zero economic or ideologic interest in the major European states to get seriously involved in the current brawl. The major BTC oil pipeline through Georgia the U.S. continuously jumps up and down about is ending at the south coast of Turkey, not in central Europe, and its purpose is to feed Israel. Except for transit fees to Turkey it is completely irrelevant for European strategies.

Get real. This border skirmish is about Russia’s undeniable realm of interest. Internationally there is nothing realy at stake at all.

Saakashvili’s splendid little war is already changing the calculations of U.S. allies.

When British Petroleum shut down the natural gas pipeline from Azerbaijan, through Georgia into Turkey because of the war, Iran increased its gas exports to Turkey by 60% to make up for the difference.

An second pipeline form Iran to Turkey is planed and an Memorandum of Understanding had been signed some time ago. This week the Iranian president Ahmadinejad visited Turkey and both sides had planed to use the occasion to finally sign the deal.

But suddenly the deal was "difficult" and Turkish media reported about alleged unacceptable Iranian price condition. The Financial Times was more frank and wrote:

The US on Wednesday warned Turkey not to strike an energy deal with Iran that undermined diplomatic efforts to halt Tehran’s nuclear programme, on the eve of a visit to Ankara by Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the Iranian president.
…
The US state department said it expected Ankara to avoid a deal that would harm diplomatic efforts but made clear its opposition to any agreement that eased pressure on Tehran.

The pressure (applied how exactly?) from the U.S. did for now what it was supposed to do. The deal was not signed.

But what is Turkey to do?

It gets most of the natural gas it uses from Russia through two Black Sea pipelines (map (pdf)). One is routed north around the Black Sea towards west Turkey and one is running underwater through the Black Sea to north-east Turkey. The second source for natural gas in Turkey is a pipeline from Iran and the third and smallest source is the line that runs through Georgia.

The U.S. is constantly warning European countries not to become too dependent on Russian energy sources. The U.S. does not want European countries to make gas deals with Iran. Now the U.S. neocon puppet in Tbilisi has proven that his country is unstable and not a reliable pipeline partner.

Ankara will take a while to digest the situation, but as the U.S. is unable to deliver reliable energy to Turkey it will have at a point to decide against the U.S. The Turkey-Iran deal will be signed silently at the next possible occasion.

Comments the Turkish daily Hurriyet:

Ankara now has to define a new balance for its relations with its traditional allies in the West and its emerging energy partner, Russia.

The task is becoming far more difficult given the recent international row with another regional energy player, Iran, over its nuclear program. Turkey and Iran had failed to agree on the deal to build a new pipeline as some speculate the failure was to avoid further unease with the U.S.

Turkey should develop a new strategy in the new grand chess board with longer term planning if it is to maintain the balance and not jeopardize its aim of becoming a key energy transit country.

The language is bit veiled, but the phrase "to maintain the balance" when Turkey is a NATO country with a huge U.S. airbase on its ground, i.e. not balanced, tells that Turkey will need to move into a more Russia/Iran and less U.S. friendly direction. Similar calculations will be made in northern Europe countries.

The U.S. has supported and advertised the gas and oil pipeline projects through Georgia as an alternative to Russian and/or Iranian supply. This was an argument to keep U.S. allies in Europe away from deeper connections with Russia and/or Iran. The alternative and that argumentation has now proven to be unreliable.

A lot of re-balancing of relations will have to follow Saak’s lunatic little war.

This site does not have any advertising and I do not make any income writing here. I do not even care much about how many people read what I write. If I would certain issues and opinions would be off limits because they turn away part of the potential readership.

I hate wars. But any media that depends on circulation numbers and advertising revenue has reason to love them. Especially "splendid little wars" like the one we witnessed over the last week.

Here is why:

source

War sells.

Cont. reading: War Sells

In a Salon article published today Juan Cole asserts in the first sentence:

Aug. 14, 2008 | The run-up to the current chaos in the Caucasus should look quite familiar: Russia acted unilaterally rather than going through the U.N. Security Council.

That is either a fat all out lie, or a mistake by Cole and the Salon fact-checkers made out of lack of research and/or knowledge.

Consider this Reuters wire report published on August 8, the day the conflict over South Ossetia went hot:

Cont. reading: Juan Cole – Uninformed or Lying?

The ‘western’ media are trying some Kremlinology and come up with the judgment that Putin rules in Russia.

[T]he events of the past five days wiped away any pretense that President Dmitry Medvedev runs the country.

Dmitry Medvedev is the President of the Russian Federation, the head of the
state, the person that determines foreign policy relations and the supreme
commander of the Russian military. Vladimir Putin is the Prime Minister, the
head of the government administration.

Medvedev is the current ruler of Russia. Not only formally as the last week’s action has shown him very much in the lead on everything.

But in its typical behavior the media are ignoring the facts. The Washington Post for example bases its judgment on easy to test quotes like this one:

Tatyana Parkhalina, director of the Center for European Security, said she was struck by the fact that Medvedev made no significant statement about the conflict in the early going and was still vacationing on the Volga River with his family while Putin was headed toward the front.

No significant statement? Volga River while Putin was heading to the front? That is flat out wrong.

Cont. reading: Putin Rules! Does He?

So is Russia "violating the ceasefire"agreement as Bush says? The NYT says no:

Negotiating from a position of strength, the Russians demanded the fifth point, allowing their troops to act in what was termed a peacekeeping role, even outside the boundaries of the separatist enclaves where the war began, with an understanding that later an international agreement might obviate this need.

The vague language of the fifth point allows Russian peacekeepers to “implement additional security measures” while awaiting an international monitoring mechanism.

Currently the Russians are visiting Georgian military bases in Gori, Poti and Senaki to destroy or take away weapons they find and to blow up the ammunition depots. It would be too dangerous to leave those unguarded, wouldn’t it?

When the Russian troops will leave in a day or two days the western part of Georgia will effectively be demilitarized. The U.S. weapon industry has reason to jubilate.

Uncharacteristically Saakashvili has not given a public peep today. Has he finally been told to shut up or is cooking up something new? Yesterday he kind of admitted that his original military attack plan failed:

Saakashvili told a group of foreign journalists in a conference call earlier on August 13, that the plan was to stop the Russian forces at the Roki Tunnel in the north of South Ossetia, which links the breakaway region with Russia’s North Ossetian Republic.

“Once they got to Tskhinvali, they could march on the capital. We tried to stop them in the mountains before Tskhinvali, but we were too late and there were too many of them,” Saakashvili said according to the transcript provided by the President’s press office.

Charles Krauthammer comes up with ideas on how to "punish" Russia. At least he acknowledges that there is no military options. But he recommends to abolish the NATO-Russia Council, bar Russia’s entry to the WTO, dissolve the G-8 and to boycott the Winter Olympics at Sochi in 2014.

None of those points is likely to get implemented. When one thinks about it, Russia has more abilities to hurt the U.S. than vice versa.

• With over $500 billion in foreign currency reserves, most of them in U.S. treasuries, Russia can notch up U.S. interest rates by simply announcing to sell a few of those.
• Part of the NATO supplies to Afghanistan runs through Russia. Does the U.S. really want that line to be closed?
• Russia could reduce oil production by say 10% and bring oil to $200/barrel.
• …

It does not make sense to pressure Russia because Russia can pressure back and unlike U.S. politicians Putin does not care what Krauthammer and other lunatics write.

But the dumbest idea Krauthammer comes up with is this:

President Bush could cash in on his close personal relationship with Putin by sending him a copy of the highly entertaining (and highly fictionalized) film "Charlie Wilson’s War" to remind Vlad of our capacity to make Russia bleed. Putin would need no reminders of the Georgians’ capacity and long history of doing likewise to invaders.

I am not sure that Putin would relate "Charlie Wilson’s War" with "Georgians’ capacity and long history of doing likewise to invaders".

You see, Georgia was annexed by Czar Paul I in 1800 and defended by Russians against Persian incursions. It was ruled by Russia until 1918. Then, during the Russian civil war, Georgia declared independence and with British help stayed independent until 1921 when it became part of the USSR. It again claimed independence in 1991 but immediately lost South Ossetia and Abkhasia. So out of 200 years Georgia was partly independent for about 12 years. That and the lousy performance of its troops last week indeed tells you something about "Georgians’ capacity and long history" of making invaders bleed.

But Putin while watching "Charlie Wilson’s War" might indeed get the idea that an occupation force in Afghanistan can be beaten and dislodged by supplying the Taliban with money and anti-air missiles. He may even thank Krauthammer for that fabulous idea.

Is Bush doubling down?

President Bush said Wednesday that the Pentagon had begun a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission to ease the suffering in Georgia, and that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would travel to France and then to Georgia to work for a settlement of the crisis.
…
Mr. Bush said that a transport plane with medical supplies was already on its way to Georgia, and that American air and naval forces would carry out the aid mission. And he said pointedly that Russia must not interfere with aid arriving in Georgia by air, land or water.

Saak seems to think so:

Cont. reading: Doubling Down?

To the  Editors

Your paper’s report on the continuing restrictions on European human sperm donations for artificial insemination of American women is deeply disturbing. [Mad Cow Rules Hit Sperm Banks’ Patrons, Washington Post, Aug 13, Page A01]

Since the outbreak of the mad cow disease in Europe there is the real danger that European sperm could lead to the fatal, untreatable Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in American citizens.

These federal government restrictions are thereby wise and should under no circumstances be abolished.

Meanwhile your report fails to point out how an irresponsible U.S. Food and Drug Administration allowed huge holes in its regulation which seriously endanger the National Security of the United States of America.

Cont. reading: The Dangers of European Semen

Zurab Kurtsikidze/European Pressphoto Agency via NYT

Think of a caption for the above picture and leave it in the comments. Thanks.

A bit of war nerdism from my side.

Map courtesy of BBC

On the evening of August 7 the Georgian President Saakashvili went on TV and announced a cease-fire. This came after some small tit for tat fire exchanges on the border between Georgia and South Ossetia. A few hours later Georgia launched a massive artillery barrage against the South Ossetian city of Tskhinvali. It used Grad multiple-launch rocket systems. Such weapons are effective against area targets, like large infantry clusters, not against pinpoint aims. To use such weapons against civilian areas leads to mass casualties and is in itself a war crime.

The attack hit people at sleep in their homes. It was followed by bombings from SU-25 ground attack airplanes in and around Tskhinvali.

The Russian peacekeepers in South Osssetia had less than a battalion of mechanized infantry between the border and Tskhinvali. This batallion was attacked by a multi battalion Georgian tank and armored infantry forces. The Russians retreated through and around Tskhinvali but held the line within the city limits.

Cont. reading: War Nerdism

by Debs is dead
lifted from a comment

Since, in the well worn words of the classic wit and incisive
thinker Anonymous Bystander "opinions are like assholes – every one has
one and thinks others all stink" I may as well put my two bobs worth in
on the humans being killed in the Caucasus.

From down at this end of the world it felt at first, like if one
could play the sort of numbers game that pols play, the notion of
northerner Europeans fighting each other as the fight expanded outwards
drawing in ‘supporters’ on both sides, that this could be a ‘good
thing’ for the rest of us. Although there have been a few well
publicised atrocities committed over the centuries when the whitefella
oppressor has a falling out among themselves, in the main for unwhite
peeps especially those in the South, these periodic feuds can provide
opportunity for southern Houdinis to cast off the shackles of empire.

Eg: I don’t believe that the English decolonisation post WW2 could have
occurred without WW2. And yes many of the southern slave states did end
up having their English masters exchanged for Amerikan ones.
Nevertheless there was also plenty of room to manouver for loosened
shackles during the 50 year transition period. So from this part of the
world the millions of dead in WW2 may have prevented the deaths of at
least that many, maybe more deaths, up here in the south of the planet.

Now that is a fucking harsh way to look at the world, even if it is
a mirror image of the way most in the north look at the South, it
prolly wouldn’t sit well with most southerners especially those still
in touch with their indigenous culture.

That attitude is only viable if the fight escalates, something which
seems increasingly unlikely especially now that Saakashvili has been
exposed in the foreign media as ‘the boy who cried wolf’. I have no
doubt that his moronic intervention into South Ossetia was a clumsy
attempt to regain his regime’s popularity in Georgia by uniting the
Georgians against the common enemy. It was doomed to failure just as
Olmert’s bloodier attempt to pull off the same trick in Israel failed.

However I did watch the ‘show’ last night on the BBC, which was the
first time. For the past week I have used downloaded documentaries as
lullabys – the Olympic farce of humanism perverted into nationalistic
jingoism cranks me up rather than lulls me to sleep.

Some observations:

Cont. reading: Between Two Empires

Jewish Georgian Minister Temur Yakobshvili on Sunday praised the Israel Defense Forces for its role in training Georgian troops and said Israel should be proud of its military might, in an interview with Army Radio.
…
Yakobashvili, Georgia’s minister of reintegration, added that this training provided Georgia with the know-how needed to defend itself against Russian forces in the clashes which erupted last last week in the separatist region of South Ossetia.

Yakobashvili said that a small group of Georgian soldiers had able to wipe out an entire Russian military division due to this training.
Jewish Georgian minister: Thanks to Israeli training, we’re fending off Russia , Aug 11, Haaretz

The Georgian Army was in complete disarray last night after troops and tanks fled the town of Gori in panic and abandoned it to the Russians without firing a shot.
…
The retreat from Gori, the birthplace of Joseph Stalin, was as humiliating as it was sudden and dramatic.
…
Soldiers left by any means available. Dozens of troops clung to cars on the back of a transporter lorry, while five other soldiers fled on one quad bike.
Georgian army flees in disarray as Russians advance, Aug 12, London Times

Could the media please stop to repeat the lunatic uttering of this idiot?

Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili told foreign reporters his country’s army has killed several hundred Russian servicemen and shot down at least 80 Russian aircraft.

Someone should tell Saak to SHUT UP instead of emphasizing Russian casualties (which are very likely much lower than he says). Consider how such talk sounds on Russian TV and how Russian civilians and politicians will react to it.

The Russians military has now moved some tanks into Georgian heartland:

Russia opened a second front of fighting in Georgia on Monday, sending armored vehicles beyond two breakaway provinces and seizing a military base in the country’s west, Georgia’s Defense Ministry and a Russian official said.
…
The move followed Russia’s warning to Georgian forces west of Abkhazia to lay down arms or face a Russian military action. Senaki is located about 30 miles east of the Inguri River, which separates Abkhazia from Georgia proper.

big map

Senaki is a railway and street node between the only big Georgian harbor of Poti in the west at the Black Sea and the center of Georgia. This move makes sure that Georgian replenishment of weapons and ammunition by ship (from whom?) will not go through.

Saak should better get serious with making peace. Unfortunately the ‘west’ is still cheering him on. The French foreign minister had Saakashvili sign some cease-fire agreement. According to the German Spiegel (in German) the paper includes a demand for "retreat of all forces from the conflict zone under international observation and the start of political negotiations." This is the ‘western’ endgame plan I described two days ago:

The ‘western’ media reporting will now align with the official U.S. policy. Russia is the culprit for all these dead and it must be pushed out of South Ossetia and punished to regain peace. Then the ‘west’ will come in and oversee the ethnic cleansing of Ossetians by Georgian forces. Kosovo anyone?

People who read those ‘left’ media like the Independent might fall to that line. The Russians will not and there is no chance that this U.S. policy will be implemented.

Kouchner will now fly to Moscow and ask Medvedev to sign that paper too. Medvedev will have some exquisit words for him and some ideas into what dark place Kouchner should stick that paper.

The Russian conditions are clear:

• return to the status quo ante
• complete stand-down of Georgian forces
• a binding Georgian agreement not to use force against South Ossetia and Abkhasia.
• no foreign troops (i.e non Russian) in South Ossetia and Abkhasia

Any prolonging of the process now will lead to further Russian gains on the ground and a longer list of demands (reparations? sack Saak? war tribunals? …)

Meanwhile the U.S. has flown some 800 Georgian soldiers and some of their equipment back to Georgia.

Was that really a smart move?

In April Russia had agreed to allow NATO equipment for forces in Afghanistan to be transported through its country. I expect that from now on there will be some difficulties for such transports with customs or the availability of rail cars. This at a time when the neo-Talibans are pondering plans to disrupt NATO’s main supply line through Pakistan.

Is the U.S. willing to give up on Afghanistan for the little blusterer in Georgia? Is meddling in the Caucasus really in U.S. interests?

Medvedev today again emphazised the strategic realm of the Russian Federation:

"We have never been and will never be passive observers in the region," the president said at a meeting with the leaders of parliamentary factions. He stressed Russia’s historical role as "a guarantor of security" in the Caucasus.

—

Sidenote:
The war continues in cyberspace. Civil.ge, and other Georgian websites, can only be reached sporadically. As annie found the Russian news site RIA Novosti was down too. It is up again and reports to have also suffered from cyber-attacks. Such attacks may be state sponsored, but they are so easy to do that a bunch of creative ‘script-kiddies’ can manage to pull down all but the strongest websites.

It seems like Saakashvili’s little deadly adventure is over. For now:

Georgia has ordered its forces to cease fire, and offered to start talks with Russia over an end to hostilities in South Ossetia, Georgian officials say.

The Russian’s though will not immediately accept that. There are still points to be made. They will request a binding agreement from Georgia to never again use force against South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If Saak is not willing to sign that, I’d expect a few more bombs on Georgian military installations.

Allover I think the Putin-Mevedev pair has handled this one quite well. They certainly did not overreach. They could have done what Israel did to Lebanon 2006 but with much more justification. But air attacks on Georgia were very limited and only on a few military targets. Neither the BTC pipeline nor other civilian infrastructure was hit.

This was certainly not the use of ‘excessive force’ as the U.S. and the NATO chief mouthpiece claim.

The Georgians are furious over the whole affair and pissed about their ‘allies’:

"Many people can’t understand why the West failed to protect us," said Sandro, a student in Tbilisi.

"America was seen as an ally, and Georgian soldiers have been dying in Iraq in the interests of global security. But the West has shown that it doesn’t care about Russia invading other countries."

"All they did was express ‘concerns’ while bombs were falling on us," added Shalva, his friend.

One can expect some interior political fallout from this crisis. I doubt that Saak will stay in his current job much longer.

The bigger impact is that others will take notice. The Baltic countries, the Ukraine and Central Asian states now learned that they can not depend on the U.S. as an ally when the going gets tough.

Other points:

Some blogs have argued that Russia was prepared for this conflict and pulled Saak into a trap. Like me the Nightwatchers from AFCEA find that implausible. It took Russia some 12 to 15 hours to response to Georgia’s shelling of Tskhinvali. In response they sent in a regular armored battalion and only later reinforced that with the real quick reaction force, paratroopers and spetsnaz (special forces).

Next to Georgia the Ukraine was hoping to get into NATO. A Georgian paper claimed that one of the Russians jet was downed with an SA-5 missile. Georgia is not supposed to have those but the Ukraine does. Russia warned the Ukraine yesterday that support of this kind was not seen as a friendly act. Today the Ukraine pushed back:

Ukraine warned Russia on Sunday it could bar Russian navy ships from returning to their base in the Crimea because of their deployment to Georgia’s coast.

If that were really to happen, another war could be on soon (see here for background on the Crimea port issue.)

The ‘western’ endgame plan for the current conflict in Georgia comes into view. The aim is to declare Russia a ‘combatant’ in the fight over South Ossetia and to illegitimate it as the peacekeeper in the region. Russia, so the plan, could thus be pushed out of Georgia and its soldiers there replaced by ‘western’ forces.

Under the Sochi Agreement Russia is a recognized peacekeeping force and mediator in South Ossetia. A yet to be revised U.S. state department page explains:

The June 24, 1992 Sochi Agreement established a
cease-fire between the Georgian and South Ossetian forces and defined
both a zone of conflict around the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali
and a security corridor along the border of South Ossetian territories.
The Agreement also created the Joint Control Commission (JCC), and a
peacekeeping body, the Joint Peacekeeping Forces group (JPKF). The JPKF
is under Russian command and is comprised of peacekeepers from Georgia,
Russia, and Russia’s North Ossetian autonomous republic (as the
separatist South Ossetian government remained unrecognized).

The Georgian president (and U.S. puppet) Saakashvili used some skirmishes to open a surprising all out artillery barrage on the town of Tskhinvali. Some 1,500 people have been killed in that attack. Russia immediately tried to get a UN resolution to condemn the strike and to demand a return to peace.

When that failed because the ‘west’ delayed a resolution, Russia sent in armored troops and later reinforced these with paratroopers and special forces. It also bombed military sites in Georgia where preparations were ongoing to activate more troops against South Ossetia. Unfortunately the bombs also hit an apartment building in Gori killing 50 people. As an eyewitness describes it for the BBC:

Cont. reading: Endgame Plans for South Ossetia

News & views … open thread …

As quoted below:

    At the request of Russia, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency session in New York but failed to reach consensus early Friday on a Russian-drafted statement.

The council concluded it was at a stalemate after the U.S., Britain and some other members backed the Georgians in rejecting a phrase in the three-sentence draft statement that would have required both sides "to renounce the use of force," council diplomats said.

A few hours later McCain states:

The U.S. should immediately convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to reverse course.

Neocon illusions … McCains top foreign policy advisor was a lobbyist for Georgia …

Links to follow the issue:

• Wu Wei blogging from Tiblisi
• Registan for area coverage
• Wikipedia so far is keeping up well but is tending to ‘western’ editing
• The Georgian news site (slow, if reachable at all) civil.ge
• Regnum, Itar Tass and RIA Novosti with the Russian view
• Some good coverage by SPIEGEL international
• Clear analysis by Reuters

Critical geographic point to watch – the Roki tunnel is the only viable land connection between Russia and South Ossetia – see this map for why this is so. Those are 12-16,000 feet high mountains between South Ossetia and Russia. If the tunnel is blocked the Russian/South Ossetian side likely loses. Why didn’t Saakashvili attack the tunnel early on? Misjudgment …

Critical media point to watch: The usual BBC, CNN and others. If they start to follow Saakashvili claims that this is a Russian aggression expect some kind of ‘western’ intervention. If they keep up there current (and correct) story of Saak overreaching there will be no intervention.

Saak claims to be in control of Tskhinvali, the main city of South Ossetia. That is a dubious assertion according to the BBC.

Russia now seems to bomb Georgian military airfields and has a brigade on the city boarders of Tskhinvali.

My current take: The conflict will escalate but will stay between Russia and Georgia. Saak will lose big time.

A great opening show. History and hope expressed with artistry and a barrage of projector- and pyrotechnics. I especially liked the globe it in the middle of the stadium with people seemingly running on it despite gravity. There were also fine allusions to global warming and a big emphasis towards children.

There was a lot of applause when the team from Taiwan walked into the stadium. Good. Pakistan, Iraq, Iran and Russia also got special applause.

The German TV commentators were bothersome when they injected this or that ‘western’ political opinion and condemnation into their annotations. Why do they assume their view is right? Hypocrisy abound. Too much politics (and business) are involved in these games and it is not China that is the culprit for this.

But these Olympics also give a huge chance to see and understand the ‘other’. Let us use that chance and let us hope everything around it stays peaceful.

Good luck to China and good luck to all athletes.

The Israeli historian Zeev Sternhell fears that Zionism’s dying between Hebron and Yitzhar. At the end of the piece about the occupation and colonization of the West Bank he writes:

Cont. reading: Zionism’s Dying

Despite yesterday's announced ceasefire, the government of Georgia today launched an all out military attack on the breakaway region South Ossetia in northern Georgia.

There are multiple reasons for this conflict. South Ossetia declared itself independent in the early 1990s. Ossetians are a distinct ethnic group with some 60,000 living in South Ossetia and some 500,000 living in North Ossetia which is a part of Russia. Most people in South Ossetia have a Russian passport and there are UN mandated Russian peacekeepers there.

In the bigger picture Georgia is supported by 'the west' as part of an energy transport corridor from the Caspian to the Black Sea.

In 2003 the U.S. engineered Rose revolution brought the U.S. trained lawyer Mikheil Saakashvili to the top of Georgia. He since ruled with a dubious civil rights record. When opposition demonstrations in November 2007 became too big he imposed a state of emergency and suppressed the media.

Why Saakashvili decided to escalate this conflict right now is a bit mysterious. He may hope that the Olympics will distract from the conflict. He seems to have some 'western' support for this escalation:

At the request of Russia, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency session in New York but failed to reach consensus early Friday on a Russian-drafted statement.

The council concluded it was at a stalemate after the U.S., Britain and some other members backed the Georgians in rejecting a phrase in the three-sentence draft statement that would have required both sides "to renounce the use of force," council diplomats said.

For internal reasons as much as on foreign policy ground Russia will not allow Saakashvili to take over South Ossetia. It will either support the Ossetians with weapons which may lead to a prolonged guerrilla war, or it may even invade on its own.

Saakashvili already claims Russian intervention in form of air assaults and uses this as a pretext for mobilization of reserves. I'd take that with some grains of salt as it sounds like coming from the Gleiwitz radio station. If three Russian planes really bombed Georgia, they would have left damage. So far none was shown.

Saakashvili may hope for physical help from 'the west', but neither NATO nor the EU has any appetite to support his escapades.

What has led him to this miscalculation?