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August 20, 2008
Iraq Shia Coalition Split

There has been a mysterious raid in  Diyala province, Iraq. Special operation forces under direct command of Maliki and with U.S. support attacked the local government compound and later had a firefight with local police:

The Iraqi forces arrested Hussein al Zubaidi, provincial council member and head of the provincial security committee. A nearby raid conducted almost simultaneously by unidentified armed forces arrested the president of Diyala University.

While those arrested are Sunni and U.S. media are playing this as Sunni-Shia strife, Reidar Visser finds reason to believe that this is a inner Shia conflict between Maliki’s Dawa party and al-Hakim’s supreme council (ISCI).

There are also rumors of terminal illness of Grand Ayatollah Sistani. He is the power that had pressed Dawa and ISCI into the Unified Iraqi Alliance and held the Shia coalition together.

If that coalition indeed brakes Maliki could rule with a Dawa/Kurd minority alliance against a very split opposition. As long as he has (military) U.S. support and is capable of such black operations, it is unlikely that anyone can challenge him.

Divide et impera has been (at least temporarily) successful throughout history. Is that the U.S. strategy behind this?

Posted by b on August 20, 2008 at 14:21 UTC | Permalink
Comments

i know this sounds far fetched (very) but something jumped out at me just now as i was reading the mcClatchy piece for the 5th time since yesterday.
Abbas Adnan, who was in the government compound when it was raided. “They didn’t have any ranks on their shoulders. They didn’t talk.”……Abbas Al Timimi, headed for the operational command building, “he was shot dead, without a word.”
i won’t bother linking to the ‘operation iraqi freedom’ news home page but as i was over there reading up on dynacorp hiring the (non iraqi) police force to train the iraqi police i ran into this 8/08 piece that got me thinking…
Salvadoran, U.S. Military Medical Teams Help Iraqi Villagers

Doctors from 41st Fires Brigade and El Salvador’s Cuscatlan Battalion brought medical care to citizens of the Zuwarijat district of Kut, Iraq, last week.

hmm. from 5/04

“You hear this snotty phrase `coalition of the billing’ for some of the smaller contingents,” says Kosnett, referring to the apparent eagerness of some nations to charge their Iraq operations to Washington. “The El Sals? No way. These guys are punching way above their weight. They’re probably the bravest and most professional troops I’ve every worked with.”
The Salvadorans are eager to stress their role as peacekeepers rather than warriors, perhaps with an eye to public opinion back home. Masked protesters last week seized the cathedral in the capital of San Salvador (news – web sites), demanding that President-elect Tony Saca pull the troops out of Iraq.
Saca, who takes office June 1, has said he will leave the unit in Iraq until August as planned, despite the early departure of the Spanish troops under which they were serving.
….
“Our country came out of a similar situation as in Iraq 12 years ago, so people in El Salvador can understand what is happening here,” said Calidonio, referring to a civil war between the U.S.-backed government and leftist guerrillas that left some 75,000 dead. The military was held responsible for widespread abuses.

just got me thinking. they are still there delivering wheel chairs and medical supplies. hmm.

Posted by: annie | Aug 20 2008 15:26 utc | 1

sort of messed up on the bold. those were 2 different witness (albeit both named abbas) mentioning they didn’t talk, without a word.

Posted by: annie | Aug 20 2008 15:28 utc | 2

i take that back.. it was the same witness. sorry.

Posted by: annie | Aug 20 2008 15:31 utc | 3

I think this affair is probably the split between the nationalist/united Iraq camp, and the federalist/split Iraq faction. Maliki is now in the united camp, since his leadership of the resistance to the signing of the SOF agreement. The lessons he has learned in those negotiations, should keep him there. On the other hand, the leadership of ISCI is definitely still for federalism, though Hakim is also on his deathbed.
There have been stories of Sistani being on his deathbed for years. One day it will be true, but who knows whether it will be this time.
Yes, it is very clear that the US is trying to play up the internal divisions. Whether it is real action or simple propaganda, I couldn’t say. For example, the Diyala raid could have been a false-flag operation – the special forces involved are as much under US control as Maliki’s. The propaganda barrage has been pretty obvious; and it has fooled a good number of “analysts”, such as Dr iRack on Abu Muqawama, and even good academics like Reidar Visser.
The point, of course, is to attempt to divert attention from, or even turn back the onrushing disaster (I mean disaster for US war aims; not for the rest of us) of the failure of the SOFA agreement. At first, I thought it was just propaganda, suggest that the Iraqis are still stupid, fractious and sectarian. Now, with this Diyala raid, I wonder whether it wasn’t carried out to create infighting, so as in the end to find someone who was willing to sign the SOFA.

Posted by: Alex | Aug 20 2008 15:31 utc | 4

Maliki is now in the united camp…the special forces involved are as much under US control as Maliki’s
i’m confused. the united camp doesn’t want the sofa, the US does. what are the chances the special forces are equally controlled by US/maliki? is that realistic? if that were the case the special forces/maliki/US would be operating in sort of a holy trinity of unity. my guess is there would be an imbalance w/either the US or maliki being in ultimate control. or, all it would take would be the same uniforms to impersonate the special forces. or a portion of them.

Posted by: annie | Aug 20 2008 16:24 utc | 5

Answer to 5 is that they’re described as being under Maliki’s and US control (I haven’t looked up the detail). I should think that means that they’re supposed to be under Maliki’s control (and may really be), but remember that they’ve been trained by the US, and probably still have US officers embedded. So it would be quite easy to turn them, for an operation that Maliki knew nothing about.

Posted by: Alex | Aug 20 2008 16:48 utc | 6

timing is everything. this is the headline @ raw story, tho i couldn’t access the story
US troops to remain in Iraq legally after 2008 under agreement.
irish times

US and Iraqi negotiators completed a draft deal yesterday to give US troops a legal basis to stay in Iraq after 2008, without setting out a timetable for their withdrawal, Iraq’s top negotiator said.
The White House denied that the long-awaited deal – which will replace a UN Security Council resolution that now provides the basis for the US presence – had been finalised.
“The delegations finished the draft which now goes to the political leaders for discussions,” chief Iraqi negotiator Mohammed al-Haj Hamoud said. Iraq’s political leadership must approve it and submit it to parliament.

Posted by: annie | Aug 21 2008 3:02 utc | 7

Condy in Baghdad

Iraq’s foreign minister has said Iraq and the US are “very close” to a deal on the future of US forces in Iraq.
Mr Zebari said officials had hoped to conclude the negotiations earlier, but he cited internal political factors for the delay.
“Really, we are very, very close to closing this agreement, and as we said from the beginning, there is no hidden agenda here,” he said.

In other words, the negotiations are stalled. Zebari is a Kurd.

Posted by: Alex | Aug 21 2008 14:25 utc | 8

Key U.S. Iraq strategy in danger of collapse

A key pillar of the U.S. strategy to pacify Iraq is in danger of collapsing because the Iraqi government is failing to absorb tens of thousands of former Sunni Muslim insurgents who’d joined U.S.-allied militia groups into the country’s security forces.

So the “Sons of Iraq” will again be the regular smugglers gangs and fight the government.

Posted by: b | Aug 21 2008 17:39 utc | 9

fallujah fall guy

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Aug 21 2008 18:21 utc | 10

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