Maliki and Bush have a big problem. The Iraqi parliament will obviously not agree to the status of force agreement the U.S. is pressing for. But Maliki now thinks he has found an alternative.
Iraq has proposed a short-term memorandum of understanding with the United States rather than trying to hammer through a formal agreement on the presence of U.S. forces, the country’s prime minister said Monday.
…
Al-Maliki has promised in the past to submit a formal agreement with the U.S. to parliament for approval. But the government indicated Monday it may not do so with the memorandum."It is up to the Cabinet whether to approve it or sign on it, without going back to the parliament," Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told the AP.
Iraq’s al-Maliki wants short-term US agreement
The big issue here is legality. A memorandum of understanding can be a legally binding treaty. But for that they will have to fulfill certain conditions. In this case one of these conditions might well be agreement by the Iraqi parliament.
The Iraqi constitution says in article 58:
A law shall regulate the ratification of international treaties and agreements by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Council of Representatives.
Lawyers in the state and defense department will have serious caveats about an MOU that is not ratified in Iraq. Without a legally binding treaty immunity of all U.S. personal in Iraq would be at risk.
Iraq may also have to pay a hefty price as an memorandum of understanding will not be a binding protection against lawsuits towards Iraqi money in New York fed accounts.
The UN mandate, which today legally covers the occupation, will run out at the end of this year. To renew it seems to be the only legal alternative to a status of force agreement. It is dubious that the Security Council would agree to again prolong the mandate. The U.S. would certainly have to pay a heavy political price to arrange for the votes.