Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 3, 2008
Syria and the IAEA

Syria to allow UN probe of alleged nuclear site

VIENNA, Austria – Syria will allow in U.N. inspectors to probe allegations that a remote building destroyed in an Israeli airstrike was a nuclear reactor built secretly with North Korean help, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday.

Thus writes the Associated Press.

But that may well be wrong but anyone who just skims the first graph will never learn so. This is very typical manuplative AP reporting from Vienna.

A few paragraphs later the facts come out:

IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei did not say whether inspectors would be granted access to the site during the planned June 22-24 visit, but a senior diplomat with knowledge of the planned inquiry said they would be able to visit the facility.



Diplomats told
The Associated Press that during the visit, agency officials will also ask for information on the alleged existence of at least two and possible three undeclared such facilities. The diplomats, who demanded anonymity because of the sensitivity of their information, indicated they had their knowledge either from the U.S. or from IAEA officials.


One of them said
the IAEA was following up on a U.S. intelligence-based tip of alleged unreported facilities to process any nuclear material. The diplomat emphasized the IAEA had not seen the intelligence itself.

This is typical for AP. The headline claims that Syria committed itself to something. But Syria may not have committed to anything at all. It might turn out that Syria will just give a nice talk to the IAEA folks when they visit Damascus. Then of course AP will ‘report’ that in such a fashion that readers will assume Syria broke a committment it never agreed to.

IAEA folks are not "Diplomats".  So we have the U.S. ambassador to the IAEA and maybe also the UK ambassador talking to the Associated Press in the interests of their respective governments.

It is so far unclear if the inspectors will visit any site at all. And there opinions if Assad should allow such vary.

Pat Lang says the Syrian president Assad should let the IAEA see anything and everything anywhere in his country:

Syria!  Watch out!  You should INSIST that the IAEA inspectors go IMMEDIATELY anywhere and everywhere in Syria to look at whatever they want.  You do not have anything that will in any way change your vulnerability to massive destruction inflicted in your country by Israel and the US.  You will never have anything that will change that vulnerability.  Yes, I know all about asymmetric warfare.   No amount of indirect pressure exerted on your present adversaries will prevent them from destroying your infrastructure if they choose to do so.

I disagree. That would be an endless process with new "intelligence" coming up from Israel and the U.S. every time the IAEA is ready to give Syria a clean health bill.

Every and any place would be dug up. All information would be fed back to Israel via CIA moles at the IAEA. The press would be filled with endless rumours before and after each visit. A completely unfounded story about ‘nuclear Syria’ would be created and gain more and more ‘truthiness’ with every report.

The people behind this want to ‘create a reality’. A few years from now, that story then would be the justification for an attack.

There are more things at issues here than the Colonel brings up. National pride is as big an issue in the Middle East just as much as in our own countries. How will the people react? If Assad would allow full inspections, would his people see him as coward? How will the economy and investors react when the IAEA starts to shuffle through private business records in Syria?

What would inspections change for Syria in a positive sense? They only make the false story bigger and harm Syria.

My advice to Assad is to not allow the IAEA anything beyond what Syria is legally obliged to allow.

Please let me know your thoughts. What should Syria do and not do?

Comments

So that’s what passes for the old wire service now. Many of the alphabet news services depend upon AP reports for their lead stories and then put their particular spin on it and add pretty file photographs. With the old UPI in disgrace (purchased by messiah wanna be Sun Myung Moon to partner with His Washington Times rag) and almost every foreign press office closed, the loop of official government disinformation tightens like a noose around the remaining illusion of a free press. Let the propaganda rain down!
But propaganda is only necessary for a free society that needs to be convinced to take a certain course of action. If the Cheneys of the world have their way, soon even propaganda will not be necessary. Just the bayonet and the bullet.

Posted by: Diogenes | Jun 3 2008 17:57 utc | 1

Wait just a god-dimona minot!

Posted by: biklett | Jun 3 2008 18:15 utc | 2

Now Lang publishes the letter of Prof. Kieran to him:

A couple of days later we travelled to Damascus to meet Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma in the visitors’ palace on a mountain overlooking Damascus. Bashar spoke with us for three hours, all Q&A.

I asked him why he had not allowed the IAEA in to inspect the ‘nuclear facility’ in order to disprove US-Israeli allegations. He responded that there was no use – Saddam opened his sites up to inspectors but the US attacked anyway. He indicated that he does not believe in dignifying these kinds of allegations, or in setting the precedent of allowing weapons inspectors to run around his country. I told him I thought he underestimated the value of public relations – he was standing on a point of principle, but this would have real costs in terms of Syria’s image in the media. He replied that he did not think so: the Western media would paint him as a bad guy in any case, and moreover in his view the key strategic decisions are taken without regard to public opinion (he again used the invasion of Iraq as an example).

So that was Assad’s assessment a few days ago – it agrees with my opinion above. Has it really changed? Then why?

Posted by: b | Jun 3 2008 19:42 utc | 3

I suppose that if the IAEA started to mumble about Dimona, ha Biklett, the Colonel would support a “drop your pants and bend-over” policy as well?

Posted by: Cloned_Poster | Jun 3 2008 19:47 utc | 4

There’s really nothing that Syria can do if Bush wants to bomb. Or for that matter anyone.
Bush can order air strikes for any or no reason and it will be carried out. The US Congress may bitch and moan and there will be a few protesters on the streets but that would be the extent of the opposition.

Posted by: ab initio | Jun 3 2008 20:58 utc | 5

your Lang interview (#3) Assad snippet makes sense AFAIC, but…
When that site was bombed and you (and many others) posted photos/analysis of them, it was very hard to make sense of both the event (bombing) & purpose of bombed facility. That it was nuke production seems far fetched to me, not the least of reasons being that facility had been known and watched for some years w/out a peep from international intelligence folks (including IAEA). That Syria remained silent on the affair further baffled me.
There was a poster on EmptyWheel’s site who speculated it was a black-ops (torture) facility. I have heard/read/seen no other suggestion that makes more sense. What other function there explains Syria’s silence (your Assad snippet not withstanding)?

Posted by: jdmckay | Jun 4 2008 11:26 utc | 6

Just as I expected, Syria gives the small finger and the propaganda people immediately demand the full hand:
Diplomats: Syria won’t let IAEA visit 3 suspected nuclear sites

Syria has told fellow Arab countries that it will not permit an International Atomic Energy Agency probe to extend beyond a site bombed by Israel, despite agency interest in three other suspect locations, diplomats told The Associated Press Tuesday.

But the [IAEA] is also interested in following up on information that Syria may have three other undeclared atomic facilities. Diplomats and a nuclear expert told the AP Monday that at least one of the sites may have equipment that can reprocess nuclear material into the fissile core of warheads.
Gregory Schulte, U.S. ambassador to the IAEA, demanded Syria not hinder agency investigators in any way.
“The United States welcomes the announcement that the IAEA will visit Syria and stands ready to support a rigorous IAEA investigation into Syria’s clandestine nuclear activities,” Schulte said in a statement sent to Reuters.

One of the diplomats said the IAEA was following up on a U.S. intelligence-based tip but emphasized the agency had not seen the intelligence itself. The nuclear expert said two of the military sites were operational and one was under construction.

As well, they said, Othman expressed fear that too much openness on Syria’s part would encourage the U.S. to push for years of relentless international scrutiny of the kind Iran’s nuclear program is now undergoing, despite Tehran’s assertions its aims are purely peaceful.

Posted by: b | Jun 4 2008 11:40 utc | 7

The posts in this blog seems to make sense. You can send the URL to people who can make good use of the stuff. i can’t.

Posted by: dreamer | Jun 4 2008 12:02 utc | 8